The issue for me here is... No shoe wearing didn't cause headaches but one could say "drinking before bed causes headaches and I'd hear the same comment - correlation does not imply causation. - It doesn't ever make sense because yes at some point it DOES! This is like saying cause doesn't have an effect or there is not an equal reaction.
@JG42058P
3 жыл бұрын
thanks for your work. I am a data scientist at IAC and this is helpful in my research to determine causality revenue changes in app updates
@BradyNealCausalInference
3 жыл бұрын
That's great to hear!
@janetkipova4596
2 жыл бұрын
This channel is amazing. Thank you for doing this!
@yasamanasgari2017
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks for your great explanation. It is 10000 out of 10.
@ClassicJukeboxBand
2 жыл бұрын
A causal association would be something like "hitting yourself in the head with a hammer tends to cause headaches."
@user-wr4yl7tx3w
2 жыл бұрын
These are really great lectures.
@MrSammer1972
Жыл бұрын
Co2 correlation to temperature increase
@vicpinto1970
2 жыл бұрын
I always knew Cage was a bastard. This video confirms it. 😃
@soumyasarkar4100
2 жыл бұрын
this is some brilliant explainations and slide making... any good resources on the topic you think is a must read ?
@ToddJohnson15
3 жыл бұрын
With respect to Nicolas Cage and pool drownings, I am reminded of the opening narrator in Magnolia: It is in the humble opinion of this narrator that this is not just "something that happened." This cannot be "one of those things"... This, please, cannot be that. And for what I would like to say, I can't. This was not just a matter of chance. ... These strange things happen all the time. ;-)
@anzhang5777
4 жыл бұрын
Thanks so much for the example. Do you have any mathematical examples to explain the casual and confounding association?
@BradyNealCausalInference
4 жыл бұрын
I suspect that you'll appreciate Section 4.6.1 of the course book: www.bradyneal.com/causal-inference-course#course-textbook. We'll get to that material in week 3. There is a chance that I won't cover it in that week's lecture, though, as I try to leave more math in the book and less in the lecture.
@anzhang5777
4 жыл бұрын
@@BradyNealCausalInference Thanks so much. Will check the material right now.
@BradyNealCausalInference
4 жыл бұрын
@@anzhang5777 Now that I think about it, all of Chapter 3 might also be what your looking for (also week 3 material).
@kevinkorb7853
Жыл бұрын
This presentation of the relation between correlation and causation is misleading. Yes, neither prediction nor correlation imply direct causation between the two variables in question. They both, however, imply the two variables are connected in a causal nexus, whether direct, indirect or via a common ancestor. That's the basis of all causal discovery (causal machine learning). Even the "cognitive bias" of inferring a direct causal connection is not simply something that should be dismissed as a kind of fallacy. The inference isn't deductive, but abductive, a kind of inference to the best explanation, meaning something often worth using as a working hypothesis. By not mentioning these points, Neal is doing his audience a disservice. If you want to know more, look up Hans Reichenbach's Principle of the Common Cause, Peirce on abduction, Pearl's "The Book of Why". The statisticians' mantra of "Correlation doesn't imply causation" is long past its use-by date.
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