Excellent cover of the pros and cons of the SGX US REITs. While Fed's current focus is on combating inflation through a series of interest rate hikes, there are concerns that if the hikes are overdone, the US economy will turn recessionary. As it is, earnings of major US Corporations have dropped, layoffs have started especially in the tech sector (with others following behind) albeit overall employment numbers remain strong. If recession does happen, employee layoffs will exert greater pressure on these REITs over and above the new norm of Work From Home. These REITs are in for a tough time ahead
@TheFifthPersonChannel
Жыл бұрын
Thanks Aloysius! Yes, they are pretty much affected by macro factors beyond their control.
@zerheanlim7566
10 ай бұрын
@the Fifth person is it the time to go in to US REIT again even after the correction over past 9 month?
@deschan7947
Жыл бұрын
love the coverage of SG reits -- especially since SG (and HK) are unique in that land is extremely scarce and hence real estate is a precious commodity. keep such coverage of SG stuff coming please!
@TheFifthPersonChannel
Жыл бұрын
Thanks Des! Will do!
@viviennelim4778
Жыл бұрын
Should I sell all ?
@joelchua318
Жыл бұрын
Dear Fifth Person, on the point of book value, if we take liquidation value as a benchmark instead, do you think there still exists a margin of safety for REITs like Manulife?
@TheFifthPersonChannel
Жыл бұрын
There is a risk that asset values will also decline as rents/occupancy continue to fall.
@cwyiuernest
Жыл бұрын
I take a contrasting view to you guys. No matter it's of relatively high price in the past and even cheap now, the conclusion is not to buy and stay away from risk / instability. This is quite funny actually. Back to strategy side, in worst case if it takes 10 years to rollback to the pre-covid level, and assume that the yield nominator (ie, the rent) cut by another 1/3 from current say 13%, i am 87% covered by dividend payback. Let's say the prices further dive another 20% before the buttom (ie assuming another 20% further loss), i still have 67% for 10 years, ie, 6.7% p.a (WAY over the SGX T bill of below 4%!). NOT TO SAY their price could bounce back to higher level.
@cwyiuernest
Жыл бұрын
Live case in HK in 2009 after the US financial turnmoil - the champion reit and several others. I couldn't remember exactly the yield but it could be as low as 18%, but the real trophy in the core CBD attracted somebody (i'd prefer to say not me!) and she progressively accumulated over six months (surely no one shot deal!), and then years later they doubled the price, with 10 years of high yield locked. However, this recent fall in HK's REIT market is beyond imagination and that the "she" had joined S-REIT several years and hold no H-REIT.
@TheFifthPersonChannel
Жыл бұрын
Hi Ernest, we actually have the same view which we stated in the roundtable: we're avoiding the U.S. REITs right now
@tatweehsu
Жыл бұрын
@@TheFifthPersonChannel "Avoiding US REITs'? Only office REITs right? How about the SGX listed United Hampshire? Trading at double digit yield and with stable earning like Sheng Siong..... Thanks
@rnegoro1
Жыл бұрын
That's why u must see the vacancy rates like a hawk.
@tomchoo3799
Жыл бұрын
Hong Kong office vacancy rate is 12% and poor resale opportunity.
@darrenkwok84
Жыл бұрын
Opportunities for hyping up back to office, probably beers and happy hours every day without fail lol
@TheFifthPersonChannel
Жыл бұрын
🍻
@edwinwee267
Жыл бұрын
Do check why the dividend yield is so high? When so many tech companies are letting go staff. Post pandemic are not normal. The US Reit is not the same as in SG.
@TheFifthPersonChannel
Жыл бұрын
Hi Edwin, thanks for asking! We covered this in the episode: the yield is high because the unit price has come down.
@edwinwee267
Жыл бұрын
I don't think that is true anymore as the US has changed their laws recently to treat loan repayment interest as dividend. Better check before buying into it.
@TheFifthPersonChannel
Жыл бұрын
Hi Edwin, there is no withholding tax. Relevant links below: investor.manulifeusreit.sg/newsroom/20221018_120315_BTOU_4P2MPU4CGNUBAD9B.1.pdf investor.primeusreit.com/newsroom/20221025_075335_OXMU_JNTPVU4UJO0GAHLC.1.pdf links.sgx.com/FileOpen/KORE%20-%20Announcement%20on%20Qualified%20Notice.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=740542
@tomchoo3799
Жыл бұрын
You guys should compare KepPacOak vs Alexandria Real Estate Equities, US Prime vs Boston Properties. Both pairs are similar in term of 'occupancy rate'. But both KepPacOak and US Prime yield are few times higher than US listed REIT, and tax free.
@donaldjoseph3903
Жыл бұрын
Both are bad choices. Management not up to par.
@xuedalong
Жыл бұрын
From the perspective of someone in a big tech MNC, I personally don’t believe anyone located in the individualistic cultures (Europe, North America, Australia New Zealand) will ever go back to working from an office. Other managers I’ve spoken to believe it will gradually come back over the next 3 years or so.
@TheFifthPersonChannel
Жыл бұрын
Interesting. We're actually curious to see how this plays out over the next few years among different cultures. Thanks for sharing, Darryl!
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