I’m 67 years old and I remember the “Invest in Real Estate” books and courses from my 20’s. The people making money with the books, seminars and everything else are the people writing the books and hosting the seminars. People’s wages aren’t keeping up with inflation and even more houses will be priced out of the market leaving a new class of homeless. I’m enjoying your channel and your content. I’ve been doing the legwork necessary to get a channel off the ground. Yes, I know it’s a “me too” but the cost of entry is more reasonable than anything else I’ve seen.
@europejob
Жыл бұрын
Hi I'm interested this job
@JasonBay-RealEstateInvesting
Жыл бұрын
You only looked at housing market factors. There are other dominos in the economy that can fall creating a chain reaction that ultimately hurts real estate. Corporate debt or personal debt for example
@marywojcik3437
Жыл бұрын
Im almost 27, have a pretty well paying job and im still stuck living with my parents. I can't afford renting an apartment on my own and the prices of houses in New England are insane. It is very frustrating.
@JamesG1126
Жыл бұрын
Just save money and wait for the carnage. You'll be glad you have liquid savings and didn't lose your ass on a house.
@spendleton360
Жыл бұрын
@@JamesG1126Your plan is genius financially, but what about that person’s social health? It’s very hard to have friends and relationships when living with parents.
@jeffkelly9197
11 ай бұрын
@@JamesG1126The market crashed in 2007/08 because they were approving mortages to people who couldnt afford it. Reasons it wont crash this time: Today you have to be making 100k plus to get approved for a 500k house. So a large percentage of homes are either owned with no mortgage or purchased with a low interest rate (pre 2021) . So most homeowners can affford their curent morrtage but are willing to sell for a higher one. People who can't afford homes aren't getting approved. Factor all that in with inflation, and its creating an envirmonet where people are sitting on what they already have or ...people are buying homes that make 120k plus a year.
@davecrupel2817
5 ай бұрын
@@JamesG1126 I've been waiting for the "carnage" since 20 fvcking 18. when i finally found a career that actually pays me well. And what happens? Housing & rent costs shoot RIGHT UP with my income. So I've barely come out ahead at all, despite making *5x per hour* what i made at my first job in 2012. You would think Covid might have set that off. But no. magically it bloated everything. The costs of Everything just inflated MORE. It all just got, and continues to get, WORSE. I've lost hope that this so-called "carnage" is ever going to happen. That I'm ever going to be able to get my own small house. FYI, @marywajcik3437 I am also a decently-paid new-englander who is 30 and also still stuck with their parents. It's fvcking miserable. I'm about to buy one of those live-in type vans. And just deal with that. I absolutely refuse to pay $2000/month for rent. no matter how good or bad the place is. That's totally outrageous.
@johnpowers5687
Жыл бұрын
This video is a game changer, I have been looking for the best way to increase my income and start up my retirement, but I really do not know much about investments and trading stocks. I keep postponing every single day that passes, but I want to begin now. How should I start? What do I need to know?
@johnpowers5687
Жыл бұрын
I know I can't do any investment by myself, because last time I tried, I lost all my money. I am serious and interested but also scared of losing money now. What can I do not to end up with same result as last time.
@johnpowers5687
Жыл бұрын
I have done some research, and what I need is an excellent financial advisor to assist me with what I want to do. A good recommendation will do. Thanks.
@johnpowers5687
Жыл бұрын
Looked up her name *Robin Brezik* and found her website, interesting stuff so far, about to schedule a session with her. Thanks.
@CiaranBoylePhoto
Жыл бұрын
Love this fake exchange as a marketing ploy - almost had me lol
@JessieLan55
Жыл бұрын
Shelby, I’d love for you to consider in a next video who really can and can’t afford a house! I think it’s important for viewers to know as well-not only the young/future generations are squeezed out of homeownership, but class status also falls along racial lines. Whether or not the housing market crashes, much of the US is in a housing crisis (supply shortage, as you mentioned). Not only do we need more incentive to DEVELOP, we need more *affordable housing* developed-many people are struggling to even pay rent as housing costs increase.
@AmandaVieiraMamaesouCult
10 ай бұрын
Unfortunately, zoning laws make affordable housing impossible.
@Image8O4
Жыл бұрын
I agree with you. There will not be a crash or a crash significant enough that will bring home prices back down to meet the average or middle class income levels.
@jessicadelbozque4252
Жыл бұрын
Bought a house with my significant other in 2018 that has more than doubled in value (we live in a destination community). We split up this year, so I’m taking my half of the equity to buy a house in another community 2 hours away as I’ve been priced out of where I currently live. Thank goodness remote working is more accessible now after the pandemic 😅
@gingerkilkus
10 ай бұрын
The fact that there is already an excessive amount of demand awaiting its absorption, despite how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, is another reason why it is less likely to occur that way. 2008 saw no one, at least not the broad public, making this forecast, as I'll explain below. The ownership rate was noted to have peaked in 2004 in the other comment. Having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020, we are currently at the median level. Between 2008 and 2012, it dropped by 3%, and by the second quarter of 2020, it had dropped from 68 to 65.
@fadhshf
10 ай бұрын
Investing in both real estate and stocks can be prudent choices, particularly when backed by a robust trading strategy that can navigate you through prosperous periods.
@TomD226
10 ай бұрын
You're not doing anything wrong; the problem is that you don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high salary in these challenging conditions.
@lowcostfresh2266
10 ай бұрын
@@TomD226 Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
@TomD226
10 ай бұрын
Actually, I'm not sure if I'm allowed to mention this, but I'd recommend looking up Laurel Dell Sroufe because she was a big deal in 2020. She manages my portfolio and serves as both my coach and my manager.
@davecrupel2817
5 ай бұрын
How the hell is there so much demand, when noone can afford these homes?!?! HOW?!?!?! Something is wrong here.
@willisapril
Жыл бұрын
I love your videos but have to partly disagree with you respectfully. I work for one of the largest credit unions in the country and for the first time since 2012 our delinquency rate has gone over 1%. There have been a lot of people losing their jobs and also with high interest rates can't afford their car payments or mortgages. My VP says there will be a lot of companies cutting jobs over the next two years prompting a lot of foreclosures as the whole trickle down effect. They expect the housing market to crash however it will not be as bad as 2008 as most of those foreclosures were as a result of ajustable interest rates. The Southeast will be the states hit hard. Credit card debt is also rapidly increasing as well.
@ShelbyChurch
Жыл бұрын
Interesting
@networth00
Жыл бұрын
Southeast, as in Florida?
@willisapril
Жыл бұрын
@@networth00 yes along with Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama
@melvrv90
Жыл бұрын
California and Arizona being hit too I think
@networth00
Жыл бұрын
@@melvrv90 Last time the Sh hit the fan the worst places were South Florida, Vegas, and LA. South Florida needs to tank big time. Home prices in good areas have tripled.
@xmaTKDmma
Жыл бұрын
Housing market moves slow. Many are impatient. I think there is no one size fits all. Some areas may sustain high prices but many i think will crash. Too many are purchasing over priced homes and already underwater. Job losses can force them to sell. I see it among friends that bought high barely making it. Now with insurance and property tax hikes are struggling heavily adding credit card debt for the basics. It is coming but its a long game. History shows its the patient will that will reap the benefits.
@WorldAccordingToBriggs
Жыл бұрын
I bought my current home in 2019. VA loan at 2.8%. I get calls every week from people wanting me to refinance. The last guy I asked him if he could see my current rate, he said "Yes" and I asked "Do you understand math?"
@ShelbyChurch
Жыл бұрын
hahahahaha
@n.y.c.2070
Жыл бұрын
Could you explain the situation in more detail please ? I'm tryna understand
@WorldAccordingToBriggs
Жыл бұрын
@@n.y.c.2070 My rate currently is 2.8% interest. Current interest rates are above 7% If you don't know VA stands for Veteran Administration. They have different types of loans.
@AmandaVieiraMamaesouCult
10 ай бұрын
@@n.y.c.2070In essence, he has a loan with low interest rate. If he'd refinance today, he'd have to switch from a good loan (low interest) to a bad loan (high interest). So he'd be trading lesser debt for higher debt.
@Berdihan_outdoors
6 ай бұрын
@@n.y.c.2070people asking him/her refinance at current rate which is double of 2.8% of what they have now. Matemathically no one in their right mind goes from cheaper rate to double what they are paying now. This is one of the reason no one wants to sell in US as well. Because they are singing now for 30years reaping thier cheap rates benefit while rates keep climbing.
@yulikizler482
Жыл бұрын
I love how you lay out your research!! Educational but engaging for someone like me who has no idea how all of this works so thank you!!! Love the open ended conversation and you just letting us know what it looks like out there!
@HipyoTech
Жыл бұрын
I think it's definitely worth a disclosure here that your sister is a Realtor!
@21prufrock
Жыл бұрын
I think these reasons make so much sense . Housing prices may go down a little but ultimately they go back up and I don’t think there will be a crash for all the reasons you mentioned .
@mapthomas
Жыл бұрын
In 2008-2010 the unemployment rate more than doubled. Here is how your crash will work this time. 1. Multifamily units are coming on line like never before where rental demand is down. The rental next to me has been open since April. 2. Job losses. The layoff cycle hasn't happened yet from our current Fed Government tightening. If the unemployment rate doubles again from 3.5 to 7 that's millions of unemployment people. Of the 20 million investment homes it only takes 5% of landlords to walk away in an economic down turn to put a million homes on line. If your BRRRR method or fix and flip situation isn't self sustainable you're going to lose everything. The crash of 2008 was in part by bad loans but speculators and people being laid off was an equal part of the down turn as well. I did enjoy the video, and you make valid cases for certain situations, however NIMBY, Boomers owning everything, and investors existed in 08 as well. If the unemployment rate increases and credit bubble pops we will see a crash.
@jerrystpierreofficial
Жыл бұрын
I've been a real estate investor for over 20 years. You are spot on from my perspective. We have stopped buying real estate and have moved to index funds. Informed Investors are very careful in this real estate market. Great content.
@ShelbyChurch
Жыл бұрын
thank you! super interesting to hear your perspective
@jerrystpierreofficial
Жыл бұрын
@@ShelbyChurch Your content speaks as if you have been an investor for decades. Well done.
@kevinb3189
Жыл бұрын
Investors buy high and low they don’t care. They are in it for the long haul.
@karenkramer3760
Жыл бұрын
We're trying to pay off the houses we own now. Not buying again.
@kevinb3189
Жыл бұрын
@@karenkramer3760 I’m trying to buy. I own a place now. But I’m getting close to $1600 a month in bank interest :)
@tomlibertiny
Жыл бұрын
@shelbychurch I've been researching the housing market for two years, county by county. With a huge database of sales that have and haven't concluded, it's very local in nature. The only trends: investment firms are actively moving to make the middle class into a profitable renter clsss instead of owner class. The people selling for reasonable, pre COVID pricing are those who inherited no debt homes from their parents or grand parents. Most other people are stuck in the "I have a cheap or no mortgage house, why sell?" The only reason for a potential crash is if people are using 2nd mortgages to pay for credit card debt due to living beyond their means. Otherwise, reasonable priced housing for purchase will continue to be rare in many counties.
@davidmilhouscarter8198
Жыл бұрын
6:09 I’ve got a 3.5% fixed on a 30 year. I’m not selling.
@kimjungboom4524
Жыл бұрын
2.62 30 year. I’ll live in a cardboard box before I sell 😄
@jennalcondon
Жыл бұрын
Absolutely loved this video!! I learned so much and 100000% agree with everything you shared! Parent gifting is huge! Every single one of my friends were given first and last for apartments or closing costs on a home!!
@mikek545
11 ай бұрын
The market has literally been slowing down and prices have already started crashing. What planet do you guys live on? lol
@TedTedness-wu4vb
Жыл бұрын
You also forgot that the Blackstone and other oligarchs/top real estate investors corps come in and buy the whole group of freshly built homes over what the builders would get selling them individually so they can rent them all..
@itwork6810
Жыл бұрын
George Gammon just did a video regarding a crash that could be triggered by some legislation requiring Airbnb owners to change their rental times (something like that). Which would mean that airbnb owners would no longer be able to supplement their mortgage payments which in turn forces then to sell. Please search for the video because it was pretty in depth and explained everything at a fundamental level. There are contrary arguments but I’m still researching this.
@russellthompson2126
Жыл бұрын
No housing crash coming in the near future. At worst, a 5-8% decline. People waiting for a 20% crash are hoping for hopes and dreams to come true. Glad I bought in 2020, people were saying the market will crash since 2018. After I bought in 2020 people claimed it would crash by end of 2021. Home is up aprox 24% since buying (279k -> 346k) Locked in at 3%. Bought at age 25. Will be paid well before retirement and at a awesome rate. If I lose my job, then ill take the tesla out and drive uber and lyft full time making more per hour than I do as a CNC machinist... until I find a new machinist job. Todays age is to easy to make money. Never before have we had job postings and gig work at the tip of our fingers, inside our pockets. Crash isnt happening.
@tomlibertiny
Жыл бұрын
You can make more driving for Uber than as a CNC machinist?
@graffix11us
Жыл бұрын
What happens if there is a recession and people are forced to sell because they can't afford the mortgage. If the unemployment rate hits 5%, expect some big changes in real estate.
@wstlndiesel
Жыл бұрын
She is Milenial!!!! No one in their right mind would listen to any of her BS in this video! She is just cashing in on your VIEWS!!!!😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂❤😂❤ SHE NEEDS TO HOOK UP WITH GRANT "under Federal investigation" Cardone! 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂LMAO!!!!!
@ThomasLau0120
Жыл бұрын
If you lose your job back in the days, you can't afford a mortgage. Nowaday, people will just drive for Uber for awhile until they could find their next job. They could be driving 70 hrs a week to earn the same amount of money but they still could fund their mortgage and families. The world is so different than what it used to be when they lose their job and they will lose everything.
@ReeLSpirit
Жыл бұрын
@@ThomasLau0120 also, its never been easier to rent out some rooms in your house. helps lower that burden. you didnt have that ability pre-2008 as smartphones and tech companies made it so easy nowadays
@eddypantoja271
Жыл бұрын
Yea you get another job
@russellthompson2126
Жыл бұрын
Chances of a recession? highly unlikely. If people do lose their jobs, theres plenty to fill. May not make the car payment but home payments ALWAYS come first. If they can not, there is enough equity in peoples homes today to sell at no costs. The ONLY way to cause a crash, like in 2008, is a sudden supply in a short period of time. Which nothing hints at that even being a close situation People are locked in at low rates and wont sell and will do anything to male the house payment.
@abc123fhdi
Жыл бұрын
everyone keeps predicting the market won't crash but they did that last time and then the market crashed. It's a cycle it will go up then come back down, even older seasoned real estate people are saying it won't crash but then it does, no one really knows what will happen.
@gnrlsmky
Жыл бұрын
I keep seeing the opposite. Everyone has been saying the market will crash since inflation hit. It hasn't yet, which is wild.
@abc123fhdi
Жыл бұрын
that happened last time, it kept on going up and never seemed like it would come down and people started panicking. Then it went way down but people still weren't buying for some reason, that's when I got my place, buy low sell high.@@gnrlsmky
@jaybartgis5148
Жыл бұрын
00:38 that was actually a pretty brilliant take. I never thought about it like that.
@juliayncera
Жыл бұрын
This was a great video Shelby! I completely agree. It's so sad to see the cycle that keeps making it harder for normal hardworking Americans to buy. As a middle class individual its very disheartening to see. Thanks for helping educate people on what's going on in the housing market!
@bro_math
6 ай бұрын
Thank you for making this video. You are correct. It will never crash. Wall Street is always buying. 2 million more people come into the US every year. The cost of materials and labor will only go up. Building regulations will only get more strict. Inflation is uncontrollable. Housing market will never crash. And it's ok, because I don't live in America anymore. Win.
@TonyThomas10000
Жыл бұрын
LLC owned properties have become a scourge in large metropolitan areas. They rent to anyone, bringing drugs and crime into neighborhoods. Many houses go through multiple flip cycles as landlords find out they cannot get decent sustained income due to deadbeats. I believe that the market is going to undergo a major adjustment. The current real estate prices (and rent prices) are unsustainable. I also don't think we will ever see interest rates go down to the previous artificially low levels.
@amandapluma
Жыл бұрын
Very interesting vid. I love all the info and effort you put into this. I’m a loan signing agent and business is SLOW. No one’s buying rn for all the reasons you listed. I noticed the wealthier clients with portfolios do adjustable rates. At first I was like oh no, not another real estate agent telling us there won’t be a crash lol I was wrong. You did an excellent job listing these points.
@ZuluNation05
11 ай бұрын
Are they getting ARMS because the rates are lower for them and they intend to refinance to a lower fixed rate eventually? If so for how many years? Or is the plan to keep the ARM loan predicting rates can only go lower? Trying to wrap my head around ARM loans right now since it was so frowned upon because of the 08 crisis.
@amandapluma
10 ай бұрын
@@ZuluNation05 Idk I never asked. I assumed they'd just pay it back fast enough to not have to worry about it adjusting.
@denesbastos2001
Жыл бұрын
Please watch the big short if you haven’t yet. Everyone wanted to be a landlord at that time too
@realestatemindset
Жыл бұрын
Finally, someone who's saying the housing market isn't going to crash that backs up with data. All good points, although I have a different conclusion, I can appreciate this data and presentation. 👏
@eazhar
Жыл бұрын
Love your channel Travis!
@easonchang331
Жыл бұрын
Correction for reason 6: if you are investing in real estate passively, you can only write off passive income against those expenses, cannot write off earned income from day job from them.
@eddiemalvin
Жыл бұрын
If your modified adjusted gross income is $100k or less, you can write off up to $25k in passive losses against W-2 income. This phases out between $100k and 150k. If you're a real estate professional (agent, investor, appraiser, property manager, etc) there's no limit.
@thehammah8039
Жыл бұрын
I got my degree in Economic and Mathematics and your analysis is spot on. NYC incentivises building monster buildings on Billionaire's row giving huge tax breaks for building a tiny number of low income housing but nothing to build houses for the middle class.
@StalePhish
Жыл бұрын
"It might just be my circle of friends". Hah this part cracked me up. I started following you originally because of your Tesla content, and you're really the only real estate person I watch. So because of that, the algorithm has actually never sent me any landlord content whatsoever, and our of all my in-person contacts, I think only one of them is a landlord (and they own like a dozen apartment buildings, condos, and parking garages). I'm super glad I accidentally stumbled upon the housing market in my early 20s out of college about 10 years ago right before housing prices went up, so my house has more than doubled even in New Hampshire. Plus refinanced during the beginning of covid. My next house I plan to build, but mainly because the type of house and property I want just isn't available. The idea of being a landlord is pretty cool but I think dealing with the people would be too much. I'd much rather own a parking garage or ideally a huge solar panel field!
@bradtrades
Жыл бұрын
Great report, and I suspect you're spot on. As someone with a mortgage under 3% we would like to move, but it is NOT happening anytime soon, if at all. In fact if we did move, the current home would become a rental, as it is worth nearly 3X what we paid for it 10 years ago. I'm sure you spent a tremendous amount of time putting this together and editing, you're a great teacher and storyteller. Thank you!
@ShelbyChurch
Жыл бұрын
Thank you for this comment!!
@networth00
Жыл бұрын
When the recession hits, your home you bought 10 years ago will be worth what you paid for it.
@Lpmeff
Жыл бұрын
I don’t believe you know a lot about markets I think you see homes dropping in prices for many years, . Maybe something like Japan
@ashlaww
Жыл бұрын
i also think people block new builds for increased traffic, changes the neighborhood feel, and 9 times out of 10 the new construction is ugly and cheap. even if there is more supply statistically speaking, housing values don’t significantly drop
@rutchjohnson
Жыл бұрын
Yes, when the interests rates decline, home prices will rise. Too many of my friends are waiting for the crash, which means there will be no crash.
@Simbecile
Жыл бұрын
I'm locked in at 2.35%. You couldn't blast me out of here.
@CK1000ism
Жыл бұрын
Another issue is how long and expensive it is to get permits. I have been in the process for a year now. If you factor in carrying costs on a property while you are waiting, it makes it undoable to build a house. In our area, the department is overwhelmed--lots of people retired during covid and so everything takes such a long time. It is a real disincentive to build new or even do major renovations. Great video, by the way.
@ShelbyChurch
Жыл бұрын
Yup!! It’s too bad the permitting process takes so long. In Seattle they have pre approved plans for DADU’s and you can get permits in “2-6 weeks”. Would be cool to see more places doing something like that
@99boiledeggs57
Жыл бұрын
Spot on. In places like California it is nearly impossible to get permits.
@networth00
Жыл бұрын
Liberal cities are a nightmare. Normal places aren't like this. Get out of CA and see that there's a whole world out here.
@WanderlustBeautyDreams
Жыл бұрын
I've seen many people's parent help pay for their children's houses for years now for the "appearance" of having it together and looking successful lol Its def been a thing for a while now but see it's not talked about it in the open!
@slumlord66
Жыл бұрын
So, you're part of the problem.
@PatrickNovotny
4 ай бұрын
You’re blaming others for your own failures.😢
@mikewhite9358
Жыл бұрын
I work for one of the largest lenders in the US. I haven’t seen so many people in foreclosure status since the 08 recession. We will definitely see a correction at the very least. Look at the cost of everything. Many people are accumulating credit card debt just to pay for basic expenses. That is not a healthy economy.
@coleenvandepas150
Жыл бұрын
Boomers own most houses in the US. There's no foreclosure epidemic. People can just sell the house rather than face foreclosure. Unless, the house is somewhere nobody wants to live and has no employment.
@ZuluNation05
11 ай бұрын
Then getting HELOCS and paying crazy interest.
@pmstff700
Жыл бұрын
The private investor is facing difficulties with property tax and insurance increases, especially FL.
@jodibonds
Жыл бұрын
Investors of rental properties are making it SO F*ing difficult for us low income people to buy affordable houses. I am so tired of renting, but there is nothing for sale in my budget. Its really disheartening.
@jacklyn-b1u
13 күн бұрын
The Trenton housing market is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quite mediocre neighborhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighborhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
@randettawolf
13 күн бұрын
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
@brenda-v7c3k
13 күн бұрын
This is precisely why I like having an asset manager look over my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a manager for more than two years, and I've made over 85% of my initial amount/
@franklyn-z1k
13 күн бұрын
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
@brenda-v7c3k
13 күн бұрын
'Grace Adams Cook' , is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
@franklyn-z1k
13 күн бұрын
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
@d14551
Жыл бұрын
Lots of food for thought here, thank you. Here's another factor in the housing market, at least in my area. If I sold my house, I would have to pay at least 60% more than my current mortgage to rent a reasonably safe, reasonably decent apartment. So I'm staying put.
@heeeeyamy
Жыл бұрын
this video was super, super interesting, and i see a lot of the things you mentioned in my own life so i'm glad someone is finally talking about it. thanks for making this, shelby!!! :)
@rightright6582
Жыл бұрын
My take: -The mother of all crashes is coming this year 2-irrational exhuberance is telling is not coming
@ecospider5
Жыл бұрын
In Seattle I’ve always thought it was as simple as the tech companies are hiring people at $200,000 a year faster than houses are going on the market. As long as that continues housing prices are not gonna go down. I don’t want fewer high-paying jobs I want more houses on the market. So zoning is a huge issue
@BrandonDoyleMN
Жыл бұрын
agreed 100% something needs to be done to address the supply side
@MrLM002
Жыл бұрын
There's a massive bubble and it will pop. A 60 year old double wide in not particularly good condition in one of those trailer parks where you own the land sold for $250K near where I live and it isn't a high class area. That's a bubble
@talkingconstruction
Жыл бұрын
Washington State has recently made sweeping changes to City zoning laws. They have "pre-empted:"much of local zoning for many jurisdictions to promote "missing middle" housing through the construction of ADUs, Duplexes, and Fourplexes.
@parkerbohnn
10 ай бұрын
In 2/3 of Canada prices never crash as the Chinese drive prices into the stratosphere. It's so bad now even the renters are priced out and can't afford rent.
@Paul.Vice.official
Жыл бұрын
Here in central Iowa demand is outpacing supply. I just sold a home, had paid 250k January 2021, due to divorce sold August 2023, sold at $315k, which was about $15k lower than what comps said it should go for. I blame high interest rates. Everyone wanted to low ball us. Overall I don’t see housing getting cheaper any time soon. Not even out here in fly over country.
@denesbastos2001
Жыл бұрын
15% lower than current values? So you couldn’t get more? Maybe that means prices started going down from the current valuations you mentioned
@Paul.Vice.official
Жыл бұрын
Not 15%. $15,000. But yes, you are probably correct.
@venom5809
Жыл бұрын
Comps are just comps, doesn't mean your house is actually worth that. You could have all sorts of issues like needing a $25,000 roof that factor in.
@denesbastos2001
Жыл бұрын
@@venom5809 true, Paul could talk about his case, if there was any reason for his house to sell for less
@allenlau4621
Жыл бұрын
Not everyone will be living in mansions in NYC or SF areas. Go buy your home you can actually afford, from faraway suburbs and small towns. With the population growth and limited supply in the most desirable areas in the big cities, the housing problems will never be solved outside of supply and demand. Keep making families and buy what you can truly afford....
@justinbieber12373
Жыл бұрын
A CHILD telling us there is NO CRASH COMING 😂😂😂😂😂😂 CLASSIC 🍷
@Sinatra021
Жыл бұрын
Exactly, these kids never lived through a crash 😅 and it shows. Listening to "industry experts" is a bs since they'll all bought and paid for. Crash coming
@swithheld9905
Жыл бұрын
Shelby! the vid is great but holy CRAP i had to rewind and watch the fab animation you put on the garnier bottle over again! that was incredible - your editing skills are amazing!
@lvengineerable
10 ай бұрын
Most of your reasons existed in 2008. The rich dad book was written in the 90s as you mentioned. Your biggest reason, zoning, existed in 2008. People were getting help with their down payments in 2008. I'm not sure but I assume tax incentives for builders were similar otherwise you would have brought it up? So the only real reasons this is different is that creditors were more strict and people have less apr loans. This makes sense that this would lessen the strength of the crash but I would argue that it's not strong enough to negate a crash. If the economy crashes, unemployment will force some people to sell to a market that is unable to afford their high price. This will force prices down just like every other economic downturn before. Maybe your title should read 2 reasons prices won't drop by the same amount as in 2008.
@denesbastos2001
Жыл бұрын
Isn’t the building much higher than Rha last 10 years?
@bustindustin959
Жыл бұрын
You know how I know housing prices aren't gonna crash? Because everyone and their dog think prices gonna crash. Oh and Blackrock bought up a metric shit-ton of investment properties fairly recently, before the rate hike. They know things we do not.
@willcubb
Жыл бұрын
You're awesome thanks for the video🙏. Absolutely agree we need to incentivize building and pull back on certain regulations that have made it too expensive and difficult to build. Only thing I'll add is that in order to write off your real estate losses against your regular income you need Real Estate to be considered your main career and meet certain other criteria. I believe if you have AirBnb style rentals the rules are different and may allow for this. I'm sure there are other ways wealthy people with good tax strategists have worked around this though
@ExpansiveReviews
Жыл бұрын
This is an amazing video! Not enough people talk about the housing market this level headed, straightforward, and with facts. It's always about fear mongering with an impending crash or hyping up getting rich quick
@Ravi-rl8tt
10 ай бұрын
I love how she cited a bunch of places where foreclosures are surging and have histories of being prone to extremely high levels of unemployment and forced selling. I’ll be commenting on this video again in a couple of months.
@arrickmills1584
Жыл бұрын
Gotta say, I came into this vid thinking she didn’t know what she was talking about, but I’m delightful surprised that she did make some interesting points. I still think real estate will crash somewhat, but she’s definitely opened my mind to thinking about it from a different angle
@aaron159r2
9 ай бұрын
1. Wanting to be a landlord is transitory. Once the reality of being a landlord overrides the "free money" passive income narrative, the lemmings leave. Everybody wanted to be a stock broker in 1999. And yes, it's the circle you run in that makes you think this is a viable alternative to a real full time career. 2. Zoning laws, also transitory. They can be changed if the political will shifts. If laws aren't changed, people can move to more affordable locations. Growth restrictive zoning may temporarily maintain high property values, but if it persists at the expense of long term growth, property values can stagnate. 3. Locked-in by low rates - again, you are just pointing out current conditions and assuming that they are unchangeable. All of these factors have converged to make houses record high prices relative to wages and rents, but as monetary policy and cost of capital adapt to the economic realities, these conditions can change in a matter of a few years. 4. Not "having" to sell because you can afford the mortgage payment. Sure...for now. Boomers may live on fixed income and inflation could make the property taxes and maintenance cost annoyingly high. Also, if they bequeath their real estate to their heirs, those heirs must now assume the carry costs of the property. If they cannot or do not wish to, why would heirs not just sell the house and take the money? Credit standard have also shifted a bit. People are more "creditworthy" because the metrics of measuring credit were downshifted a bit (eliminating medical debt from credit score calculation). Also, the economy received a bunch of federal stimulus which padded consumers' income, but at the expense of sovereign debt burden and currency weakness which has long term ramifications for the US economy. 5. I agree there is a huge wealth transfer occurring from boomers to millennials via inheritance and gifts. But this wealth from parents doesn't come out of a piggy bank. It comes from the sale of other financial assets like a previous property or stock shares. The price of real estate is now highly correlated to the financial markets. You think mom and dad are still gonna be forking over a $120k downpayment after watching their 401k get cut buy 20% should we go through economic or market weakness? 6. I agree the tax incentives in this country help prop up real estate competitiveness as an investment alternative, but these tax benefits are usually arbitraged away in free markets, hence the high prices. Also, my base argument or "things change" or "mean revert" applied to tax policy as well. Prices may not fall rapidly or immediately, but it would be unusual for a developed society to enable unaffordable housing over the long term. Housing unaffordability has an extremely negative impact on economic dynamism and population growth. This problem is self-correcting. The high prices create the motivation to change all the factors you have presented. For an investment strategy, stick to the adage "buy low, sell high". Houses are on a relative basis (price to income, price to rent) are VERY highly priced. Whereas, shares in companies that produce oil and mine natural resources are historically cheap for all the exact opposite reasons you presented. It's unpopular to invest in fossil fuels, zoning laws are threatening to curtain land leases for mineral extraction, cost of capital has been high for these companies, etc. Likewise, Japanese large cap industrial stocks are out of favor, unpopular and therefore cheap. Same with many emerging markets like Brazil, Mexico, Pakistan, Egypt etc. Investing like all your buddies on KZitem is a sure way find yourself in a bidding war to pay the highest possible price and limit your long term expected investment return.
@nytrortx5224
11 ай бұрын
“Real estate investors go where the loopholes are” true words there. Unfortunately, NY’s attorney general has started prosecuting real estate investors.
@kdfooaijfea3asdf
Жыл бұрын
I've heard a lot of real estate pundits talk about why the real estate market won't crash, but you offered some reasons that I never heard others talked about (ie., explosion of real estate investors, generational wealth). This is the best "why housing market won't crash" videos. Really great insights, thanks!
@ShelbyChurch
Жыл бұрын
thank you!! I tried to find those underlying trends & reasons that people don't really talk about.
@anonimity1174
Жыл бұрын
This is why it is not worth having a mortgage anymore. The thing is, I can just get a mobile home, and invest the rest of the money e.g stock options (building decent portfolios). Besides that, I can buy a home (do real estate) in other countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines - which are fast-growing economies and then rent it out (while working in the USA making 6 figures). Also, think about it, when you retire, you can barely afford to stay in the USA. This is why a lot of foreigners go to countries like the Philippines to live there for retirement.
@coleenvandepas150
Жыл бұрын
Most Americans retire in the US. Broke old men go to the Philippines because people are so poor a young woman will give the poor geezer the time of day. If they marry and she has a kid, he can die and there will be Social Security income until the kid is an adult. Americans with money don't choose to retire in the Philippines. They can go to Portugal or Malta or Malaysia.
@aliciaa.8059
Жыл бұрын
What camera does she use?!
@Gibson369xx
Жыл бұрын
They dont stop building in Lake Elsinore CA
@Cyrus992
Жыл бұрын
Some markets have already plunged by 20%. When 3D printing construction expands, supply will increase. Only a tiny minority of the land in the US is even built.
@ShelbyChurch
Жыл бұрын
good!! as they should honestly!
@Cyrus992
Жыл бұрын
@@ShelbyChurch I do not think you talked about population growth. It is the around lowest. Not to mention the long term effects of the jab.
@Jooolee_
11 ай бұрын
Great video. And I think the experts” are also speculating 🤔
@hnrsolutions5184
Жыл бұрын
Excellent points. Been investing in CA since 1999. I remember reading Rich Dad books and it was revolutionary at the time. A deep recession is the only thing that will create a crash. And more bank failures!!!
@jtatsiue
Жыл бұрын
The federal government has to step in because the economics aren't favoring the vast majority of Americans who aren't already homeowners, so Shelby's right, the middle class is being squeezed out and that's bad for the entire country. Unless the fed creates an incentive to build, NIMBY, billionaires, lobbyists, landlords owning 10 + properties and private equity firms (Blackrock) will prevent homeownership for the middle class from being a feature of American society EVER again. Here's the deal folks: we're heading for a 1929 style Great Depression, only unemployment rates will remain comparatively low, but no one will earn enough to cover the lowest rung on Maslow's hierarchy of needs even while working full-time. Pay attention to the budding labor movement, you'll see strikes start popping up all over the country (that's already happening) and hopefully, you'll see political parties (I'm talking to you Green Party), start to join with workers to support them. The power's not in the ballot, the power's where it's always been, with the people.
@jojojoy
Жыл бұрын
People are moving away from California including myself. It's unlikely that the real estate surge we witnessed in the past two decades will recur in the upcoming two decades. and I think the crash might actually happen when the Feds drop the rates.
@ShelbyChurch
Жыл бұрын
I’m so interested to see what happens when rates go down. I think home prices will just go even higher 😅but hopefully I’m wrong!
@josephaugello1527
Жыл бұрын
@ShelbyChurch they will go up in fast growing states like Washington, AZ, Texas, Florida. Colorado and others. California is going in the other direction so far ot has dropped by a million and is just under 39million now. LA city is down almost 200000 to 3.9 million. LA county is down 500000 and is now under 10million
@venom5809
Жыл бұрын
They aren't dumb, they want you to leave, those places are massively overcrowded.
@ZuluNation05
11 ай бұрын
@@ShelbyChurchrates are only going to drop when something drastic happens. It's not going to be this influx of buyers. People waiting on the sidelines unless disciplined are not going to be able to qualify. Too much debt being accrued. Job losses. Many people saying screw paying crazy ammounts of rent and getting that on the credit. It will stay steady until the fed has to restimulate the economy.
@haleyanson9311
Жыл бұрын
I really appreciated the editing on this video!!
@shaileyd4846
Жыл бұрын
I remember your opening line from a vlog a little while back & have been excited for this video since then! 😄
@Courtney-Alice-Gargani
Жыл бұрын
Houses aren't going to crash because of low inventory. No foreclosures. Depending on where you live, some areas have more new homes listed than resale. No one knows if it's going to crash or not no matter how much data you have to back it up. It's just your prediction. If it were to crash, I'm wondering what is going to cause the crash.
@crazycornishcrafter
Жыл бұрын
The card would look lovely dry embossed too. The quality of the print is especially impressive. TFS.
@Rogerthatidea
Жыл бұрын
“The middle class is being squeezed out of home ownership more and more.” Very true, and devastating in many ways. Not just financially, but also socially. Does anyone ever consider the skyrocketing incidence of single parenthood as being a cause of increased housing demand and the inability to even consider buying a home?
@vidaakaadom2710
Жыл бұрын
Shelby, you are spot on. Really enjoyed this video. Thanks for sharing!
@tywade9558
Жыл бұрын
Could not disagree with you more. Most markets are 40-60% over valued. Interest rates are at a 22 year high. 30-45% of available homes for sale are owned by private firms. They are selling them 120-200k over theor value. This means they are artificially inflating the value. For the ones buying they are already underwater. So the market dips, they go deeper underwater. For the properties not for sale, rent is choking people. Realistic inflation is 30-40%. People are running out of money, and credit. These are not speculation these are facts.
@ShelbyChurch
Жыл бұрын
Where is that stat from the 30-45% of available homes are for sale by private firms? I mean I hope I'm wrong - I hope it goes down, but I do agree that anyone who purchased in the last year would be underwater most likely - but boomers, who have owned for decades and refinanced at a low interest rate, will be fine
@tywade9558
Жыл бұрын
I am doing this research in the Denver metro market, but would suspect this is taking place all over the country. If you look at the homes currently for sale you will see that many were last sold between 2020-2023. I will use the example of homes being sold between 500-550K. Many of these homes were sold last for 300K. I started to see many of these homes were sold for 300K over and over again. Not anything below or above that price. What many of these homes had in common is that they were owned for several years prior to this, at least 10 years, and they are all a similar size and location. They are now being sold for 150-200K over what they were bought for. For what they can't sell they rent at inflated prices. The problem that is being created is intentional scarcity of housing, for both potential buyers and renters. On the buyer side they are pricing out individuals who may have money, but not deep enough pockets to compete with these large portfolio groups. They are then pricing out renters who are already taxed in this market for affordable rentals. That simply just goes up the chain, where that person(s) who would otherwise buy at an inflated price, now rents at an inflated price, then taxing them further. This is legal Racketeering on the backs of the middle class.
@everu1450
Жыл бұрын
Wow this is such a good video. This put together a lot of my thoughts so eloquently. There are so many things that need fixing...
@lfc286
Жыл бұрын
You’re right. Unless there is a significant structural change in the housing market there won’t be a crash.
@nicolegarvin4723
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for putting this together. super interesting.
@selfcaretravelrepeat
Жыл бұрын
This is one of your best videos lately! Love content like this, educational and get to hear your opinions. Your hair is also looking really healthy ❤
@ShelbyChurch
Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much!!
@carolynm.8868
Жыл бұрын
The town I grew up in 51% are rentals. Median price of home is $1,100,000 !
@ShelbyChurch
Жыл бұрын
Wtf
@networth00
Жыл бұрын
What town? It must be a vacation destination.
@carolynm.8868
Жыл бұрын
The kids I grew up with that stayed in town bought their own homes, then eventually inherited their parents home. Some even inherited their grandparents and parents homes.
@carolynm.8868
Жыл бұрын
Nope, not even close to a vacation destination.
@networth00
Жыл бұрын
@@carolynm.8868 What state?
@MrAverageViewer
Жыл бұрын
Shelby, do you even REMEMBER the real estate market in 2005-2006? The dynamics are not that dissimilar.
@MikeHawk143
Жыл бұрын
The same people can not even qualify. Not the same.
@ZuluNation05
11 ай бұрын
@MikeHawk143 there were way more prime loan forclosures than subprime. It's worse with it being way less affordable now.
@MikeHawk143
11 ай бұрын
@@ZuluNation05 but better because it is supply issue this time.
@ZuluNation05
11 ай бұрын
@@MikeHawk143 your supply narrative is the only thing propping up the many things going against the market right now. Won't be long now.
@POTThaesslich
Жыл бұрын
yes Folks, listen to this youtuber, who has a new project every week, instead of listening to people that know what's going on.
@PelosiStockPortfolio
Жыл бұрын
Two things that could cause a housing correction/crash: 1. We actually have a recession with significant job losses. 2. The boomers finally die off and the market gets flooded with supply
@handymack5324
Жыл бұрын
The lack of other economic opportunities to invest saved money is the primary reason why everyone is so keen on owning real estate. However the profit margin of rental properties tend to go down overtime because of rising maintenance cost, taxes and insurance with aging buildings. The demand of housing will always be a downward slope as birthdate has been and will continue to decline. Demand for housing, minus influx of new immigrants ( which is also in the drop) will continue to go down to reflect a net decrease in population. Once the rich dad’s dream is awaken, home prices will come down with a glut of vacant homes for sale, in particular those old and uncared for units.
@Chillingbones
Жыл бұрын
You are smart girl for sure. You lift most of the points a though of myself. It is actually disgusting how they are trying to squeeze people out of their homes with increased interest rates. Motivating it as the "fight" against inflation. I believe a lot more people - as you pointed out - have awoken too the whole idea that there actually can not be produced more land. A large chunk of buyers want to own everything about their land, second to this people with homes obviously are not looking to sell for a loss, due to the fact having debt is crippling. In this sense high rates are just counter productive. What is the point of paying of a loan that you already made a 50-100k+ loss on? No one will do that. Hence they hold on to their homes. And yes historically the value always increases over a 10 year period, be it 1% or 500%.
@serhiy2020
Жыл бұрын
The down payment "gifts" are usually not gifts. They are only gifts on paper. It's a loophole used to qualify for the loan. In most cases these "gifts" have to be repaid
@ShelbyChurch
Жыл бұрын
that's true!! Sometimes it's a gift sometimes it's just a different sort of private loan
@status-xk8kr
Жыл бұрын
Landlords usually avoid cities with rent controls and strong tenant laws that make it almost impossible to evict tenants?
@ferenckluni7652
Жыл бұрын
Probably you are right. Even if I look at it from Hungary. We have the same situation here: the nominal prices are not going down. 😊
@jbar_85
Жыл бұрын
I will say, though, this is a well detailed video with good reasons. What aspect of Greed plays into the hosing costs?
@Sarkahn1
Жыл бұрын
What makes everyone so confident interest rates are going to go down soon? And if they do go down soon, why.... probably lots of unemployment. When you are unemployed, can you afford a home? Another note. Commercial real estate is all variable high interest rate loans. And just because no one is selling, what about the almost 1-quarter of the economy that relies on lending to make money? (car dealerships, brokers, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, banks.) If the market stays frozen, these people will continue to lose jobs, spend less, and keep the economic recession going.
@networth00
Жыл бұрын
Rates will go up from here.
@aeronmarvelous3393
Жыл бұрын
Excellent analysis.
@alexwyler4570
Жыл бұрын
not criticizing. Where did you get your rental numbers? From the city? I live in Oregon, it seems in my town, the rental rate is as high as 40%. what about downtown Seattle? do most people own where they live? What is the % of your friends that own their own homes ? Here, only engineers and investors own their own homes in their 20s and up to late 30s. just an observation.
@VideoGameRoom32
Жыл бұрын
Do you create edit decision list (EDL) before you edit?
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