I feel investors should focus on under-the-radar stocks, considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises plummeting stocks that were once revered. I don't know where to go here out of devastation.
@melvipais
Жыл бұрын
Wow Ashwath, the amount of hardwork that goes into this is commendable.. thanks for your kindness.. offering it for free
@Wooster77
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for posting this, Aswath. I was a student of yours in a past life, when you were at UCLA, assisting prof Litt in his financial analysis class. You’re the best teacher I ever had.
@Dr.Dumpnpump
Жыл бұрын
I’ve learnt so much from you for free. I’m so grateful there’s people like you Aswath.
@MrKevinClean
Жыл бұрын
I love your honesty and your way of teaching. So pragmatic ,common sense and in some times with a little touch of humor. You are one of the bests for sure!
@AnkittK81379
Жыл бұрын
Sir please provide us complete course on financial modeling From beginning to advance. With pratical case studies. Humble request to you sir. Hare Krishna 🙏
@heetprajapati6414
Жыл бұрын
+1
@priyant95
Жыл бұрын
+1
@crohmer
Жыл бұрын
Lol
@thienfoil
Жыл бұрын
He has it on his channel every semester
@diviyampat9996
Жыл бұрын
@@thienfoilhe only has valuation and corporate finance courses
@aqrs269
Жыл бұрын
Thank you for sharing, professor. I subscribed recently to your channel. Watching and reading your back catalog of valuations is a great gift, but watching a fresh valuation on a topic which dominates the market in real-time is on another level. Thank you.
@blessingpaul5484
Жыл бұрын
I began my investment journey at the age of 33, primarily through hard work and dedication. I am to share that my passive income exceeded $100k in a single month for the first time. This success reinforces the importance of the advice mentioned earlier. It is not about achieving quick wealth, but rather ensuring long-term financial prosperity..
@Jessicatorres_768
Жыл бұрын
Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields.
@SophiaBint-wj8wn
Жыл бұрын
This is superb! Information, as a noob it gets quite to handle all of this and staying informed is a major cause, how do you go about this are you a pro investor?
@blessingpaul5484
Жыл бұрын
Through closely monitoring the performance of my portfolio, I have witnessed a remarkable growth of $500k in just the past two quarters. This experience has shed light on why experienced traders are able to generate substantial returns even in lesser-known markets. It is safe to say that this bold decision has been one of the most impactful choices I have made recently.
@PhilSommer2
Жыл бұрын
wow that’s stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio..
@blessingpaul5484
Жыл бұрын
My advisor is *Nolan Velden Brent* , a renowned figure in his line of work. I recommend researching his credentials further. He has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
@nwgverified
Жыл бұрын
That's so funny, just yesterday I was thinking about how rosy the forecasts would have to be to justify that NVIDIA stock value. What a coincidence.
@msin148
Жыл бұрын
Years of accounting and MBA courses and finally someone who explains things succinctly!!!
@rajraina8291
Жыл бұрын
Thank you. Would be great to get a follow up post on AI winners and losers and how you are going about that research for your self. Also, wondering if in one of your next sessions you could share how you go about researching a sector you know very little about and still sound profound ( essentially what is the framework you use). Thanks as always
@pratikamin8
Жыл бұрын
Its really in depth analysis... Thank you.. it's always pleasure to listen
@herokorai8346
Жыл бұрын
Best teacher and always enjoy watching your videos!
@NathanielParedesTrades
Жыл бұрын
Thank you professor Damodoran.
@rocking1313
Жыл бұрын
3:23 Semiconductors is a growth business that is maturing if not already mature - Thanks Prof. Damodaran!
@me0101001000
Жыл бұрын
As a scientist, engineer, and academic, I'm very excited for the development of AI/ML/DL tech. I think it'll be very powerful for the development of my fields (electrochemistry, molecular physics, materials science, and chemical engineering). Molecular design, reaction design, crystal analysis, and ultimately, full systemic simulations that are physically accurate. Of course, I think the last one is a long way away, since even simple simulations are very expensive to run right now, but it seems just a little big closer now. And from a business view, I think this could rekindle a public interest to invest in scientific research.
@Danny-qt5vt
Жыл бұрын
hello, do you want to explain further? Do you believe that AI will enable scientists to conduct full systemic simulations? Wouldn't that presume perfect knowlegde of all confluing variables in a given system?
@me0101001000
Жыл бұрын
@@Danny-qt5vt You asked two questions. Let me answer the two separately. 1: Yes, eventually. At the very least, create a reliable model as to how a system will operate. It doesn't have to be perfectly accurate to ever scenario, but merely describe the behavior of an average system given the information provided. 2: Not necessarily. There is always space allowed for unknowns, which are usually described in a Gaussian manner. The MO for most systems is by paying your DUES (Diagrams, Unknowns, Equations, Solutions). The name of the game here is creating a more comprehensive bill of unknowns, consolidating dependencies in the unknowns, writing a more complete equations.
@LPDhub
Жыл бұрын
@@me0101001000thanks for your response. Can you elaborate on DUES, specifically unknowns? 🙏
@Danny-qt5vt
Жыл бұрын
@@me0101001000 okay, interesting viewpoints! Could you direct me to sources for further exploration on these topics?
@praneshumashankar8319
Жыл бұрын
I've been doing a lot of thinking and research on building a NVDA short thesis and this helped me with that process a lot. Thank you Professor!
@jia7833
Жыл бұрын
You don’t short a company just because it’s over valued. It’s a promising business that markets is a little bit ahead of itself but doesn’t mean the holders want to get rid of it.
@monsterboomer8051
Жыл бұрын
@@jia7833 Nvidia is not overvalued. It is BRUTALLY ENOURMOUSLY overvalued.
@jia7833
Жыл бұрын
@@monsterboomer8051 guess what, good companies are overvalued for most of the time, and great companies are even more.
@robbarnett6530
Жыл бұрын
Hi Professor Damodaran, it has been a few years since I completed your course so I may have forgotten some of the fundamentals. Can you please clarify your current thinking on a company's terminal ROIC. I thought that your historical rule of thumb was that very few companies could achieve terminal ROIC's above their terminal cost of capital with the exceptional companies having an ROIC no greater than 12%. Could you also clarify the Monte Carlo input for the cost of capital. I think that you are varying the input for the initial cost of capital. Would the valuation not be more sensitive to the terminal cost of capital? Many thanks & best regards, Rob.
@user-ls4nh9ez6t
3 ай бұрын
the best teacher I never had until now. thank you so much for teaching people
@LaszloMag
Жыл бұрын
Biggest lesson I've learned about investing and valuation was buying NVDA. NVDA is my best performer among 25 companies in my portfolio, but the position I took years ago was was a relatively small one compared to other ones I've made, because the company a that time was "overvalued" - something the professor has been alluding to numerous times in his lectures.
@christiancoronado
Жыл бұрын
Simply masterful. Thank you so much!
@chrisreiche
Жыл бұрын
How do you factor in the risk of TSMC going down due to geopolitics? Without TSMC there are no chips for NVDA. What about taking the risk from TSMC and apply it to NVDA, since it is fundamental there?
@honglu679
Жыл бұрын
Tsmc is not the only fab, it is the best/biggest one right now, but others are not too far off either. Given the right opportunity, others could catch up, say, for geopolitical reason, tsmc is down or not available. Other fabs will get enough resources and money to fill in the void. All the fabless design houses might suffer for a while, but it would not be the doom day, hopefully.
@chrisreiche
Жыл бұрын
@@honglu679 for now TSMC is the only one capable to produce the chips for NVDA. Even if other could catch up, it still is an issue of scale. And the time others catch up to the current state of the art, TSMC might be well ahead again.
@monsterboomer8051
Жыл бұрын
@@honglu679 You are horribly wrong. TSMC is crucial. Others can't get anywhere near. You naive idea, that pouring money into fabs is enough is wrong. It is not about money, it is about know-how and ability to yield top chips. Just look at Intel how much capex they unloaded to fabs and they still can't get pasat 7nm. If Taiwan is invaded, it means 2-3 years halt on advanced chips production worldwide.
@newdata
Жыл бұрын
china mentality is all about progress. AI is progress. They will never stop tsmc or nvda.
@UCLu80m2ixrOHYgI6ioFZFhA
6 ай бұрын
As prof.Damoraran mentioned during lecture, valuation and pricing is completely different thing
@ajit788
Жыл бұрын
One key piece of recent spike in the earnings and revenues is that there has been a big upfront buying of nvidias products from Chinese tech giants due to the future restrictions from US regulators. Nvidia doesn't show revenues by geography but I'm sure it's pretty big more than the third of their revenue.
@zaferatakan1082
Жыл бұрын
YOU ARE AN AMAZING GUY! I never had the opportunity to meet in person though I watched many of your videos, and your sound started grow like Anthony Hopkins, so fatherly, almost heavenly. God bless you!
@Martinit0
6 ай бұрын
I love how the historic graphs for NVIDIA go way back to the IPO. Too many analysis are focused only on most recent years.
@polomarkos
Жыл бұрын
Semiconductor where always a vital component of technology. They just gain so much reputation today because of AI and because of their shortage during pandemic
@Richmenscity
Жыл бұрын
Thank you for sharing knowledge which big university provide for thousands of dollars And professor Like you is giving it for free Thanks for your kindness Sending love from india ❤️
@kk22001
3 ай бұрын
1k usd per share. There is a reason he is a professor at NYU not running a multi billion hedge fund. To all his students, take note!
@Mrhiest292
Жыл бұрын
Sir please make videos on Indian companies it would be easier for us Indians to understand . Thank you
@ves6613
Жыл бұрын
Superb as always!!!!! Forever grateful!!!!
@user-jj4sg8ci5x
Жыл бұрын
Thank you very much for sharing all this knowledge for Free, you are doing service to society
@user-ss2iq3cw8e
Жыл бұрын
Thank you Aswath for sharing your wisdom. You are a great teacher.
@vikaashsrivastav
Жыл бұрын
Excellent Analysis , explained with such a simplicity that anyone listening will be able to understand. Thank you Prof @Aswath Damodaran
@merzibow
Жыл бұрын
Fantastic analysis professor! Your videos on these matters never disappoint.
@LalitPrakashVatsal
Жыл бұрын
Regarding the gaming and crypto dominance of nvidia, even if they look like opportunistic moves, they both are related and well timed. After establishing itself for its gaming hardware (high data-parallel processors), they even enabled developers to utilize then (mostly focussed towards game developers) with their CUDA platform as early as late 2000s. When crypto mining boomed, this was the right “matured” product at the right time! And these machines considered to be bulky and and can be placed in a desktop, bulky gaming laptop or server farms, but brings the AI capability to client-side, or to simply put, in the smartphones (mobile computing) is a different ballgame where Qualcomm, Samsung and Apple reign supreme.
@theinvestorstrategist
Жыл бұрын
Hi Aswath. Why don't you do an update on your Tesla video from a few months back. The share price has surpassed or soared your valuation metrics. What now?
@mrretired2715
8 ай бұрын
Is there any company he values that are under valued
@e_anagnostou
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for posting Professor. As always you are doing an excellent job, not only in the valuation process but also in the educational one.
@avijitpaul9015
Жыл бұрын
Sir, happy Guru Purnima to you. You are my only and forever the one Guru.
@missunique65
Жыл бұрын
fabulous!!!!
@RajSharma-ec7mn
Жыл бұрын
Sir, what's difference under graduate and mba spring valuation series?
@mindcache5650
Жыл бұрын
Just what I thought. When stocks collapsed earlier this year in January and February, NVIDIA was my primary target to buy on my my radar. Their move into digital twin factories for Siemens, BMW and their build of the Superaccelation Computer with 1 trillion transistors and layered petaflops is amazing. I didn’t buy because………….it’s PE is 235 . Google’s is 11.
@hokaconnect
Жыл бұрын
Thank you
@mauricioa1744
Жыл бұрын
Great material as always. Thank you
@pauljones9150
Жыл бұрын
Always a pleasure to watch your videos
@JoshuaStorm-zi1wy
Жыл бұрын
Great video!
@yinghe9943
Жыл бұрын
The numbers are far more underestimated.
@klevisbilani
Жыл бұрын
Great video, thanks for posting. Very insightful on valuation and on the method of analysis. However, it would be interesting to know if you did the same type of analysis in 2018 when you purchased the stock (i would assume at around 32-38$ per share) what was the projection for the price of the shares 5 years later? Maybe i am wrong, but an increase of approx. 12x seems very improbable. And if it wasn’t a close estimation to what happened in reality then how can one judge if the current price represents the intrinsic value. Because if i would assume such an increase even 300$ per share would have represented a fair price in 2018. Maybe there is a flaw in my way of thinking but i hope someone could point that out. Also would be interesting to know if you also consider inflation on the projections for revenues in the next 10 years.
@alwanexus
Жыл бұрын
My question is who is going to fab all these chips for this growth? I don't think ASML is building 50% more machines annually, and TSMC isn't adding 50% more capacity annually. From a supply perspective, this just doesn't seem grounded in reality. Not to mention where's all the electricity to power all this going to come from? Obviously no one knows about demand side, but big picture is will companies keep improving their bottom lines after spending $200 billion a year on NVDA hardware (not to mention the SW, the engineers, and the power)? The only reason to spend the money is to get at least that much back, either by making more (either more business or charging more) or spending less (in added efficiencies and improvements, people they don't need anymore, etc). Economy doesn't just grow proportional to investment in AI. Once it matures, it's just going to be a lot of replacement/maintenance.
@manubhatt3
Жыл бұрын
If we will have more robots and more EVs in future, then may be the semiconductor business will remain in growth mode rather than it being a blip?
@me0101001000
Жыл бұрын
Depends on how the tech develops. If we cling to the current material paradigm, i.e. silicon and gallium arsenide, we're going to get stuck. The development of nanomaterials for semiconductors. This means graphene, boron nitride, titanium trisulfide, and molybdenum sulfide above all others. All of these are 2D materials which have the ability to be scaffolded nicely to create heterostructures, cramming in more processors per unit volume. If you are okay with a bit of tech jargon, I recommend checking out Asianometry. He goes over the frontiers of semiconductor technology quite well. He doesn't get too technical, but just enough to give you an appreciation of what has been done and what the steps forward are.
@RedditMan
Жыл бұрын
In terms of 4b. End users, it may have been nice if you also added if the total number of uses for the semiconductors as it most likely increased (the pie chart only depicts the percentage rather than the total number of semiconductors being used)
@rkagarwal03
Жыл бұрын
Simply brilliant 👏🏽
@deucevault7850
Жыл бұрын
how has this guy built such a reputation without people knowing his historical returns, net worth, or portfolio? or is he just a teacher and people look to him for well-presented lessons but not mastery?
@nagpalsid
Жыл бұрын
Thank you Prof, excellent video. If I may, you didn’t add much of political risk on the AI story. You did mention the senators aren’t capable of understanding AI hence you don’t trust their ability to block it, but what if you’re wrong and there is a strong political will to slow down AI. What happens to nvidia then? Your estimates all come with a bottom 10-20% range, would political risk take us there? Any further inputs?
@CarlitoBriganteTR
Жыл бұрын
You have enlightened us a lot with this video. Thanks Professor.
@viktorio998
Жыл бұрын
Dear professor Aswath, could you please explain where/how do you consider Capex and WC under the DCF? Are they considered in the in the row "Reinvestment" through the Sales/Capital ratio? If so, I would be very grateful if you could elaborate more on that? Thank you very much for your work and for your time. Kind regards, Viktor
@atangbingana283
Жыл бұрын
Can you do $PLTR or give us thoughts ?
@EricaBMarcus
Жыл бұрын
Hi Prof, in your view, what will dampen NVIDIA stock price momentum (if anything)? At the moment, it just is on a tear and I am just sitting, waiting, wishing....to find an entry point.
@maltlickytexas
Жыл бұрын
NVIDIA🚀🙏🙏🙏
@AlexMercer-jp7bv
Жыл бұрын
I was wondering about NVIDIA's debt Outlook. Not what they borrowed but the one's receivable by them. In this ongoing AI Boom many are rushing towards entering thre business and Nvidia having the largest market share must be the prominent supplier for the same. As said in the video itself, when everyone is in the pool, instead of benefiting it would rather become destructive. So when/if businesses fail ( a large chunk of them ) possibly, what will be the debt recoverable Outlook for Nvidia in upcoming periods?
@Tential1
Жыл бұрын
39:30 if you're a pure value investor. I stick with managers I like. Jensen has delivered 20+ years. I couldn't bet against him. Same with Jeff Bezos and Elon musk. Sometimes, you see a person and you know, they're special. Jensen fits that for me. And I find, he outperforms whatever I think. So I understand the numbers, they make sense, but, I believe Jensen can hit unknowns. I don't believe you should apply this thinking to everyone. Ford? GM? Normal. Companies, no. When a company proves it's special, I find that letting that play out is more beneficial. At least for Amazon, Tesla and Nvidia lol.
@tomo9224
Жыл бұрын
The big threat to NVDA in AI is Google. They have a better AI than what ChatGPT is and they have developed their own chips (tensor processing unit). NVDA is a great company but Google develop the software and hardware so I think they are uniquely placed to take advantage of AI at a greater rate than NVDA.
@VarunGandhi-wi8qg
2 ай бұрын
Well well, NVIDIA is now trading at $1200+ …..definitely a bubble !
@suyashkela2382
Жыл бұрын
Which tools can be used to calculate the revenues and margins of an entire industry ? TIA
@simond633
7 ай бұрын
Should we be shorting Nvidia then - the mkt is cyclical and so are they, so gloomy days at some point are likely?
@pastplayclashofclans
Жыл бұрын
Such a good analysis..
@karthikashok
Жыл бұрын
Excellent as always a very big fan
@Do_Anything_you_want
Жыл бұрын
3:20 margins and what they tell
@sakdab
Жыл бұрын
I love the way you combine your story and the numbers. You might be a numbers person, but your story is based on history so maybe you are actually a historian.
@mattk1631
Жыл бұрын
Appreciate the quality analysis as always.
@maxhaenni
Жыл бұрын
Great walkthrough. Thanks.
@vikyp989
Жыл бұрын
The wiseness of this man never ceases to amaze me. He quickly inculcated his lessons learnt from his experience with Tesla. A Classic example of ageing like fine wine unlike other academicians who become rigid and ultimately bitter with age. A truly passionate student devoted to his craft and ever evolving. A real master is always a student at his core. Thank you Guruji🙏🙏❤❤
@joao.stigliani
Жыл бұрын
Very great class!! The best explanation i ever see..
@jrossi91
Жыл бұрын
this screams bubble to me starting at 6:00
@mattgargiulo3995
6 ай бұрын
Looking for an update here :) closing in on $875.
@newdata
Жыл бұрын
think that 500 b in revenue , can bring forward to next year.
@santhankumar3709
Жыл бұрын
Hi @Aswath, why the AMD not listed in the top 10? Is there any specific reason?
@MrBizaaro
8 ай бұрын
Its close to 500 now.
@siddheshkadam2728
Жыл бұрын
I don't know if you reply to comments or not but this question is regarding 4b. End user 2030E, with increasing rise in home automation and other IoT devices, dont you think gadgets will have much more share, and if the new launch of apple Mixed reality device gets a phenomenal response 3-4 years down the line, will the landscape change entirely ??? Learned from you that there would be lots of Ifs and Buts, but the way I see here in India, lot of people are buying alexa device and remote control lights and fans are being purchased.
@tarunyadav9723
Жыл бұрын
Tbh the estimations seem fairly plausible to me keeping in the mind the almost certain future surge in the electronic automative & the AI industry. As far as Indian market is considered, at the moment it doesn't hold much of a significance in this semiconductor space as India is neither a major consumer nor a major manufacturer in the domain, even though the Indian government has kicked-off the process to be a major player, they are more likely to draw the results in the long-run only. Thus, in my opinion America in the short-run is the major player in the semiconductor space as it is moving manufacturing plants from Taiwan to US quiet aggresively and on the consumer side it has always held significant relevance. So all in all, the user segment would largely be determined by their needs only, which is indicated by that pie chart. Although, the apple point you mentioned still holds relevance, but unless something unprecedented happens I dont' think so it will create that big of a disruption atleast in the short-term.
@namanpatel6446
Жыл бұрын
Hello Sir, I do not understand why are you suggesting to adjust the R&D expense while considering Margins. Isn't R&D a necessity for Tech companies to stay relevant.
@estring123
Жыл бұрын
nice video aswath
@josecarlosazor3337
Жыл бұрын
could you do or do you have an Intel valuation?
@VarunGandhi-wi8qg
2 ай бұрын
Well well, NVIDIA is now trading at $1200+ …..definitely a bubble
@moorecable
Жыл бұрын
When Bidu and other Chinese companies perfect AI of course Nvida is over valued. But " There is no Alternative ". So. When the hedge funds buying the hottest stocks and Nvida will be the top of those hot stocks. So buy the hype and sell the fundamentals as its so a thing of the past. No stock trades on fundemental anaylysis now. So the value is in hype with a an eye on the cost average. If you buy a boat load of stock at a good price point simpy speculate using fundamentals.
@matteomannocci
Жыл бұрын
Could you please value Palantir ?
@jithendravs
Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much!
@siddharthpaturu6929
Жыл бұрын
Can you please do valuation for Astral pipes? Currently, I feel they are over valued. But they are entering different business, will the price be justified for future growth?
@rfs589
Жыл бұрын
been picking apart the valuation spreadsheet, does anyone know how he came to $4,496m operating income TTM? his R&D adjustment doesn't add up to me.
@joedirnfeld
Жыл бұрын
How good was your analysis on tesla.
@JensN113
Жыл бұрын
Spot on I'd say, his assumptions were even slightly too optimistic. Stock prices are unpredictable anyways
@joedirnfeld
Жыл бұрын
No way, they were way off , because the methodology relies in determining future cash glows and that requires an understanding of tesla beyond past performance.
@JensN113
Жыл бұрын
It's a mediocre car company
@joedirnfeld
Жыл бұрын
@@JensN113 so ignorant Read study learn educate yourself
@joedirnfeld
Жыл бұрын
@@JensN113 so ignorant Read study learn educate yourself
@JerryZhangz
Жыл бұрын
I think NVDA is more like Apple. It integrates software with hardware.
@Blancositas
Жыл бұрын
maybe next pandemic will create a catalyst for next good entry on this stock.
@dhruvshah2719
Жыл бұрын
God level analysis
@Richardson_Mg
Жыл бұрын
He’s my new college professor.
@chrisf1600
Жыл бұрын
I bought 2024 put options on NVDA because the stock is absurdly overpriced. I'm fairly sure that the market will come to its senses before too long
@mskoki5712
5 ай бұрын
How d8d it work out...
@chrisf1600
5 ай бұрын
@@mskoki5712 haha, bad...but i've still got 3 months to expiry. Not the end of the world if I lose my premium, it was always a long shot
@happyfinance1806
3 ай бұрын
You really fucked up mate...hope you recover from something else ..@@chrisf1600 Best wishes
@luismvsilva
Жыл бұрын
Amazing as always
@Violacity
Жыл бұрын
volume is pretty low
@antball775
Жыл бұрын
Love the analysis not a fan of all the numbers and charts but your take that it’s better to be in the right place and lucky then 😢smart is great imo Nvidia has one big elephant in the room they don’t actually make the chips the other is gaming and they mainly just do PC gaming and making games is very expensive now and especially going the PC route is extremely expensive so these or the things I’m looking at if they can work around it I think short term it’s great going forward not so sure
@Tential1
Жыл бұрын
27:10 nvidia's years of 15-30% 5 year net income cagrs are due to excellence. I've rooted against Nvidia for 20 years hoping someone would dethrone them and we'd get cheaper products. Nah... Now I buy the stock and let Nvidia pay for Nvidia products. Nvidia has doubled net income in 2-4 years multiple times off of video games. Doing it off of ai is a cake walk in comparison.
@Martinit0
6 ай бұрын
Same here. Always hoped AMD would rise to the challenge - they did, but not fully and still lacking on the software side.
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