SEE NOTE ABOUt ROOT CAUSE BELOW...
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NOTE!
From a comment by @douglascounts5851 : "... if the internal wire itself was touching the case, the wire would have melted right there. The impression you saw on the wire insulation was simply caused by pressure on the wire near where it had been heated up. Also, you can see that the wire had hardened near the connector which also indicates that was near the source of heat. A few different things can cause this, one would be if the connector was loose as any arching within the connector can do this. Also, if the contact in the thermostat (which I think caused this) wasn't completely closing properly, the arching inside the thermostat will generate a great deal of heat. You see this a lot with contactors, thermostats, and other switch types that don't close completely or have degraded/burnt contact points."
My Thoughts: This is definitely a possibility. But, looking back at the footage of the cut in the wire, it sure looks like there's charred conductor and melted insulation, with a clear hole all the way through the insulation (at 4:24 in 4K, you can see it). Perhaps the thermostat was weak and a short pushed it over the edge... Or maybe a bad thermostat caused the wire to get hot enough to melt where it was against the case, causing it to melt some then short. No way to know 100%.
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