25 years ago I was in electronics manufacturing, we did small to medium volume consignment or turnkey assembly. I had a client that needed some product built locally due to some issues with their supplier in China. They were close enough we could deliver and quote on dock pricing. Including shipping from overseas I could be profitable at only 10% more expensive than their China supplier. I've been saying the same thing for 20 years, as the standard of living increases in China, their manufacturing costs will obviously increase to the point we can be competitive onshore. Not to mention onshore manufacturing is good for the US and doesn't support the corrupt CCP.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Totally, totally agree with you, Dan! Any arbitrage does not last, and that includes the labor arbitrage of China or any other country. They are double what workers in MX make. And not as skilled. Add to that long supply chains and the changing geo-political environment, and I we should see a lot of that electronics manufacturing coming back
@normpeplow3813
Жыл бұрын
Having been in manufacturing all my life all I have seen is downsizing, exporting jobs to other countries, and giving executives humongous bonuses for doing this at the expense of the American worker. I am now too old to care; I expect that executives will continue to receive their obscene bonuses at the expense of the workers.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
You are right, Norm. Moving manufacturing to N. America doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll have a lot more line jobs. Executives will (and are) getting bonuses for this move like they did 30 years ago for moving to China. The economics have changed such that we’re seeing a huge build up in manufacturing in the region. That will take >10 years to complete. I’m also getting “too old to care” - yet my hope is that the a younger generation can prepare for this and do well.
@normpeplow3813
Жыл бұрын
@@RichGilbert You are right about the younger generation, I also want them to do well and have a good future. Thanks for helping me out. I taught CNC programming and math part time until I was 76 trying to help people prepare for new jobs and the changing job market.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
CNC programming is a great skill. I’m sure you hear success stores from your students.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
As for math, there are three things I can’t stand: 1. people who are bad at math. 😂
@jlrutube1312
Жыл бұрын
It's a good thing Trump got rid of Nafta 1 and fixed and replaced it because that is one of the reasons that manufacturing will be coming back to America. Also Trump was right about not depending too much on China.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Yes. Regardless of what you think of Trump, USMCA was a great improvement over NAFTA. You’re also right. In 2016 NO ONE was talking about China cheating the US (I was since I was living there, and I saw it with my own eyes) - only Trump was. Now it has become US policy with Biden’s chip-ban and other policies. In fact, Biden has been continuing every Trump foreign policy and putting teeth behind them. Tariffs are still there, the wall is being completed where there are gaps, relations with Europe and NATO, etc. They are actually very similar presidents in foreign policy. (Both Trump or Biden supporters - don’t hate me for this. I’m a policy watcher, not a politician watcher - they are so similar) :)
@tommywolfe2706
Жыл бұрын
I have been working in factories in Northern Indiana my entire working life. We make everything here...instrument and RV making capital of the world, and because of the infrastructure to support that, we have more factories (and factory workers) than most huge cities that have 10x as many people. I can drive down my road and see companies (like Lippert, the chassis division) who has been hiring NON STOP for 8 years. I started welding there and moved to place that paid more. Manufacturing hasnt left, it never will. Its just slow right now, but it will come back, it always does.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Tommy! Love the comment! Indiana is a bright spot for US manufacturing and will continue to be so! GREAT IDEA to be a welder! I’m sure you make a good living and have an interesting job. I hope more people will get trained in the trades rather than learn basket weaving at a college to take on huge debt. I’d like to see more trade schools and apprenticeships in the US as well.
@erikstonesifer7326
Жыл бұрын
@@RichGilbert Couldn't agree more on trade schools. Combine well funded trade schools, community colleges and returning manufacturing and America's most most enviable accomplishment comes back to life: A robust Middle Class. Same for Mexico and Canada.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
@@erikstonesifer7326 It's a hard lift in the US, but I think there's a great opportunity there. It's unfortunate that so many businesses require some 4 year college degree, even if the job doesn't need one. It's a global phenomenon as I've seen it in other countries. I do see the trade school creation as a great business opportunity for people.
@williambaikie5739
Жыл бұрын
Wrong about wind and solar. These 'energy' sources are a negative to our total energy. Our grids give them the same price as reliable electricity, but wind and solar produce unreliable intermittent electricity, often when it is least useful. Currently wind and solar are dragging down our manufacturing capabilities and robbing capitol which could be used for real reliable electricity. I ❤ Fossil fuels and Nuclear power!
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
I agree with you that I am “wrong about wind and solar”. In such a complex problem, there’s little “wrong and right”. I’ll make another video about how wind and solar are NOT going to come close to solving energy issues. In fact, we need MORE fossil fuels for wind and solar (in production of the panels and turbines, and we need backup gas generators for when no sun/wind). My only point is that if there is ANYWHERE is the world it “works”, parts of the US are the best examples. Your point is well taken, and I 100% agree with you. Thanks for the comment!
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
You are correct, Ben. It’s a complex topic involving the media, the public, academia, and the government. I’ll do a follow up video exploring so called “green tech”.
@williambaikie5739
Жыл бұрын
@@RichGilbert True, 'if' wind and solar could work, the US is best situated. Also Solar can and is helpful in certain applications. For example a process which can take advantage of a short window of 6-8 hours during the middle of the day and the variability of seasons and clouds. Think - very niche uses.
@michietn5391
Жыл бұрын
Big media push and gov. subsidies for "green deals" are part of the huge Culture War biased (not based) on a political hoax (AGW myth). This is part of a Great Reset Matrix intent on destroying humanity and developed civilization aiming at a techno-elite "heaven" of a few thousand super wealthy elites with their robot servants and everyone else in a zombie apocalypse death zone.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Hope that’s not the case, but I can’t disagree with you at this point. It looks like a grand global conspiracy and the Great Reset. I have another possibility just assuming people work in their own self-interests and they run through the media cycles we have - and we get to this situation around green energy, global warming scares, and the Great Reset rhetoric. I’ll make a video on this cycle. In future episodes.
@brunopadovani7347
Жыл бұрын
Manufacturing in North America is great as long as "North America" isn't code word for everything goes to Mexico. A very substantial portion of that manufacturing, especially the critical stuff, needs to come back to the US. I'd like to see Mexico and Canada benefit mightily from this shift out of China, but the US must be the master of it's own destiny, and this means that critical manufacturing must be reshored on a massive and decisive scale.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Great points, and your intuition is spot on. The fact is that Mexico can’t handle the highly skilled manufacturing that will be the bulk of this shift *by value*. They can handle the manual parts, and then design, automation, high-tech, and assembly can happen in the US. That’s the good news. Bad news (maybe) is that the really low-skilled, repetitive, boring jobs will indeed go to Mexico. Up-skill for success.
@brunopadovani7347
Жыл бұрын
@@RichGilbert Or the 10 million illegals in the US will do the low skill work in the US.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Maybe. Some. But the key is illegal. There are other systems coming into place that should prevent lots of illegal workers, but they take longer to implement and infringe on privacy / border on state control.
@brunopadovani7347
Жыл бұрын
@@RichGilbert Yes. I was being sarcastic about the illegals. Agree with you 100%. The US will have a bit of a labor shortage/mismatch for a few years, so Mexico will be a good place to migrate a lot of the low skill labor intensive work from China. If we have smart people running this country (a BIG if), US trade and investment policy should have as its medium term goal, to make all of the high value components (semiconductors, displays, rare earth magnets, electronic components, controls etc...) here, and assemble in Mexico what we cannot assemble here. Then use Mexico as an export platform to Latin America so that the US content of Mexico's exports to Latin America offsets our imports of assembled Mexican products.
@ALPHAGENXCORP
Жыл бұрын
good video. in order to get trended, in goodle search and youtube you need good timestamps.....
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the comment! - I just added some timestamps in a few videos on your advice to see how it improves. thanks!
@damocsell
Жыл бұрын
Interesting channel. I have long been thinking that manufacturing will come back but thought that we did not have the skilled labor to do this. I hope you are correct.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Thanks! It will take a bit of time to get the right skills in N. America, but the demand is becoming apparent. TSMC and Samsung (among many others) are building high-tech plants in the US and begging for skilled labor to run the manufacturing lines.
@sjhoff
Жыл бұрын
How comforting to all the Americans here in Ohio, Mexico will get all the manufacturing jobs. You think that's anything an American would be proud of, like we should be celebrating. We don't celebrate North America, it's just a continent. Mexico has nothing to offer but poor oppressed people who get our jobs moved down there, or the other poor oppressed people who get sent up here.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
You’re right on a lot of this. N. America involves US, MX, and CA. The US will be the main owner and big beneficiary to the manufacturing in terms of value - think corporate profits. Automated high-tech plants will likely be in the US. Low cost labor will likely be in MX. True. That said, the fact things are moving back to the region offers a lot of opportunity for Americans who want to participate. It will mean a bit of “up-skilling” compared to 1950’s manufacturing. But there will be a need for skilled plant operators, robotics techs, etc. Fun fact: net migration from Mexico has been negative for the past 10-15 years (more people go back to MX than come from there to the US). The migration we’re seeing now is from S. America - Guatemala, Venezuela, etc.
@sjhoff
Жыл бұрын
@@RichGilbert so the elites will benefit, profits will soar, and my unemployed neighbors can have access to cheap fentanyl and heroin from Mexico delivered right into my neighborhood by illegals. As long as Mexico gets the middle class we once had things will be great.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
@@sjhoff I certainly hear the sentiment, and you're right about the transition being difficult. Certainly not everyone will be able to re-train to catch the opportunity. Some will. But not all. I also wonder what this means for the future of the American middle class.
@sjhoff
Жыл бұрын
@@RichGilbert the idea is to destroy our middle class. I just don't share your globalist vision . It's part of the same peddled BS that NAFTA was. Open trade with Mexico they said, it will benefit us all. Nobody even bothered to ask "well what does Mexico have to trade?" The answer was cheap labor for millions of our middle class manufacturing jobs. Products we manufactured ourselves, now made in Mexico and sold to us at even higher profit than before. This was not a scenario the average person envisioned or knowingly voted for, this was all for the benefit of the elites, in every way.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
@@sjhoff Thanks so much for the response. I don't really have a globalist vision. The economics just made that profitable, so companies did it. Now it's coming back not because of "good policy" or something, it's just economics again. You're right the American middle class is being hollowed out. I agree that's a problem. There are many ways to get out of that trap (start a business, coding camps, etc), but it's hard. While it might not seem it from what we see on the news, our lives today are overall much better than they were 50 or 100 years ago on nearly every standard. Size of dwelling, purchasing power, access to quality calories, life expectancy, healthcare, infant mortality, access to information, etc. I'd balance that out with the middle class shrinking.
@gviliunas
Жыл бұрын
Of course.... The cheap labor is now arriving daily from the South.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
I totally agree. Illegal immigration is a big problem. On the other hand, _legal_ immigration is what has put the US in a demographic and labor position that is better than nearly every other developed country in the world. We need to choose properly who we let into the great USA.
@laserflexr6321
Жыл бұрын
How in the hell will the US manufacture when already we are fighting over who is gonna have lights and heat this hour? Electricity here has gone up in each of the last 3 months, 60% more expensive in 15 months. Good luck running manufacturing plant with energy cost going up like that. P.S. 3d printed parts start at about $60/ pound for the material alone. Not really suitable for mass manufactured parts. Prototypes, customs, art and really high end stuff only.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
You make a few excellent points! Energy costs are artificially high for a couple of reasons - one we have a global market for oil and natural gas with a global price. If and when the breaks up through the de-globalization which has already begun, US will have some of the cheapest energy around. In fact, compared to Europe, we are multiples cheaper even now. For 3D printing - also true. It’s expensive now for many applications, but very much part of the supply chain and prices are coming down rapidly. If you want to “skate to where the puck will be”, that’s a good one to shoot for. China has had mass 3D printing plants for years at this point. It’s very doable and will continue to get better.
@myeka1273
Жыл бұрын
I’m about to get a few certifications for electrical, mechanical and robotics, this should be a great next few decades.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Those sound about right for the carts you need going into manufacturing in the future! Glad you’re excited about it. I think it will be a very interesting time.
@natehendricksen3338
Жыл бұрын
New large scale manufacturing in the US will have to be highly automated and not labor intensive. Dirty or labour intensive will have to be Mexico. Canada same as US.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Yes. You are correct. The overall economics of the situation are pushing strongly in that direction. Manufacturing is coming back - and it will be automated and medium to highly-skilled. There’s a lot of opportunity there.
@canadiangirl5159
Жыл бұрын
Canada and the USA must become independent again. I would buy Made in the USA before buying from China.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
It’s coming. We’ve been in a 70 year era post World War 2 of American-protected globalization that is now starting to unravel. N. America is easily energy independent, food independent, militarily the strongest of all militaries combined. And the US has elected the non-globalist, populist presidential choice since 1992 with Clinton. America is caring less and less about protecting the rest of the world. I think you will get your wish. ;)
@normpeplow3813
Жыл бұрын
I am in USA but I do look for Canadian made or Canadian business. To me Canadian means Quality and I like Canada.
@youdodat2
Жыл бұрын
I hope you are correct.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Just keep in mind the manufacturing will be much more skilled than ever before in the US.
@llibressal
Жыл бұрын
I want to believe it but I'm just not convinced.
@jeromebarry1741
Жыл бұрын
I returned to the U.S. workforce as an experienced integrated circuit layout designer because an American giant chip company decided to stand up American resources and shut down Chinese operations. I witnessed the day when a U.S. employee removed each and every Chinese person from the Microsoft Teams Chat for the project. It was glorious.
@llibressal
Жыл бұрын
@@jeromebarry1741 Awesome ! That's encouraging.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
It’s already happening. It won’t be the “same” as before. So if you’re interested in manufacturing, there going to be a need for skilled and highly skilled people. For example, TSMC wants a plant in Arizona, but is having trouble finding skilled workers. We can give them those skilled workers for sure. It will take a bit of time.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
I love this story!
@llibressal
Жыл бұрын
@@RichGilbert Don't they need a lot of water to support that plant ? The Colorado River isn't looking too good lately.
@detectivehank1
Жыл бұрын
I am really surprised that you didn't mention this, but the biggest reason for manufacturing to be coming back to the US is the death of the petrodollar, which created artificial demand for dollars and artificially reduced demand for products that would be paid for in dollars. The dollar is no longer the only way to pay for oil, so this will greatly reduce this problem.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the comment! Are you referring to China making a deal with the Saudi's in Yuan? AFAIK, oil is still denominated in USD.
@detectivehank1
Жыл бұрын
@@RichGilbert yes, I am, and also Russia selling oil in rubles. The writing is on the wall. Petrodollar is on the way out.
@keithcombs4349
Жыл бұрын
So long globalization... let's get Americans decent jobs with benefits.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Yes. The world is starting to de-globalize. The post World War Two American led global collation against the Soviet Union ended in 1989, and since then we have been moving away from the world stage (with a few stints in the Middle East). the US cares less and less about what the rest of the world does, and moving manufacturing to the US is one very clear indicator of this and a way to isolate the country from the complexity of multi-country supply chains.
@katateo328
Жыл бұрын
yes. That's the origin of USMCA :D:D:D uncle sam moved one step ahead.
@jeromebarry1741
Жыл бұрын
Somebody, please, credit where credit is due for USMCA. Donald J. Trump.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
You’re absolutely right. The USMCA - United States, Mexico, Canada Agreement was a significant improvement on NAFTA for the United States, and for the entire region. It made it a much more fair partnership. This is a part of why Manufacturing can come back economically to the region. It’s not the ONLY reason, but it certainly helps. Whatever people may think about Trump, he definitely did this.
@mostbestjia627
Жыл бұрын
Why not India?😮
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Some manufacturing will go to India, but there are a few significant problems. Their infrastructure is not great. It takes a long time to build up the “clusters” of suppliers needed for a good manufacturing hub. They have to import nearly all the inputs. Overall education levels are super low. Skilled workers are rare. And we still end up with an 8-10 week supply chain.
@charlesb9602
Жыл бұрын
Wadda want to do with a bunch of gender studies majors with manufacturing"
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
That's right! Not very useful. And not very practical to pay off $200,000 in student debt. Hopefully we see some more trade schools opening up to train people into high-tech manufacturing workers. Maybe someone reading this comment will start one! There's good opportunity to participate in this shift. Just have to have the right skills.
@pcj3405
Жыл бұрын
We could use some good news. No doubt there is going to be jobs but what are these "jobs" going to be like for the proletariat?
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
You’re intuition is correct. It won’t be low-skilled, mindless jobs. Those go to Mexico and Central / South America. In the US will be the skilled to highly-skilled jobs. Think precision welding, robotics engineering / maintenance, automated plant management, 3D printing tech, and electronics manufacturing / FAB workers.
@DaveElectric
Жыл бұрын
Americans are good at making simple tools, machine cutting tools and machines of high complexity and high build quality. They are not as good manufacturing machines of medium complexity and consumer goods.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Hmmm. I believe Americans are some of the most innovative, clever, and resourceful people on the planet. Tesla cars are extremely complex. 60% of chip manufacturing by value (high end chips) are American. Falcon heavy rocket is American. F-35, F-22. The most complex manufacturing that has ever existed. For medium complexity and consumer goods, we have had cheap labor in China for years to do that. Now that labor is expensive, and we can automate a LOT of it closer to home. The economics is pushing this, and it’s already happening. Just a bit different than we might expect to see.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
I mis-read what you said. I totally agree. :) Low end and high end manufacturing. Yep. The middle is now able to be done with automation - also things like 3D printing is very commercially viable for a lot of this.
@k.olejnik1543
Жыл бұрын
You of course must be kidding, unless of course, you are talking about fake/bug food!
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
I know it sounds crazy. Not kidding. It will take a while, but it’s already started the past few years. Skilled manufacturing jobs will be in N. America. Not so much the unskilled stuff.
@joylm9108
Жыл бұрын
😂
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Let's see...
@thomasstansberry2311
Жыл бұрын
Unprecedented LED
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the comment! What is LED here?
@richardbrown8269
Жыл бұрын
Don't believe you.
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Totally understandable. Predictions of the future are usually way off. This trend has already started before Covid and is accelerating rapidly. I'll make a series of videos getting into more details and evidence. Thanks for the comment!
@MafaeJamie
Жыл бұрын
we need american not foreign workers
@RichGilbert
Жыл бұрын
Yep. I agree! And we’ll need more Americans trained in advanced manufacturing skills.
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