Episode 92 @AfterburnPodcast : Col (Ret) Mark Cancian joins us as we delve into the strategic intricacies of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Colonel Mark Cancian is a distinguished Marine with over three decades of service and a Senior Advisor for the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). Colonel Cancian shares his expert insights on what an invasion of Tawain might look like. We also explore the ongoing Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Hamas confrontation, drawing parallels and understanding the broader implications of these conflicts on global security.
Resources:
Col Mark Cancian www.csis.org/people/mark-f-ca...
War Game - www.csis.org/analysis/first-b...
Coping with Surprise - Great Power Conflicts www.csis.org/analysis/coping-...
Tradeoffs Between Israel - Taiwan - Ukraine: www.csis.org/analysis/can-uni...
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Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Background
03:45 Reasons for Conducting the War Games
06:20 Structure and Execution of the War Game
08:17 Choice of Year for the Invasion Scenario
09:46 Likely Scenario of the Chinese Invasion
13:08 Assumptions about Military Capabilities
15:53 Importance of Dispersing U.S. Military Forces and Harden Aircraft shelters
19:53 Outcome of the Chinese Invasion War Game
21:23 Recommendations and Insights
23:01 No Ukraine Option for Taiwan
26:48 Civilian Impact and Scenarios
29:10 Challenges of Crossing the Taiwan Strait
29:39 Chinese Amphibious Operations and Logistics Challenges
30:36 Parallels Between Ukraine and China
31:35 The Reality of Unexpected Military Actions
32:35 Lessons from the War in Ukraine
33:34 Adaptation in Warfare
35:00 Impact of Air Defenses and Naval Warfare in Ukraine
36:28 Role of Drones in the Conflict
39:24 Challenges of Introducing New Technologies
40:20 Limitations of F-16s in Ukraine
45:37 Supporting Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan
52:48 Supporting Allies in Times of Conflict
56:16 Managing Global Commitments
59:39 Threats of a Power Vacuum and Chinese Influence
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is plausible but not imminent or likely.
The United States and its coalition partners could maintain an autonomous and democratic Taiwan, but at a high cost.
Japan's involvement and the availability of bases in Japan are crucial for the United States to support Taiwan.
The war game highlighted the challenges of distance and logistics in the Pacific region.
There is no Ukraine option for Taiwan, as the Chinese defensive capabilities make it difficult to provide support.
The war game emphasized the need for the United States to enhance deterrent capabilities and strengthen forces to avoid a conflict with China.
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