NOTE: Conditional probabilities can be written two ways: a "long" version and a "short" version. In this video I use the long version (because it's easier for me to read)... P(A and B | B) = P(A and B)/P(B) ...however, the short version is commonly used... P(A | B) = P(A and B)/P(B) Both mean the same thing, in other words: P(A and B | B) = P(A | B). The short version implies the "and B" part. Support StatQuest by buying my book The StatQuest Illustrated Guide to Machine Learning or a Study Guide or Merch!!! statquest.org/statquest-store/
@exploringdiversity572
3 жыл бұрын
Your version is much easier for non-statisticians like me :)
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
@@exploringdiversity572 bam!
@chandrashekar316
6 ай бұрын
omg this cleared up so much confusion i had from reading my text book where they were using the shorthand
@pomegranate8593
2 жыл бұрын
I love how I need a video that seems designed for 7 year olds to understand my uni course. Great vid thanks
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Glad it was helpful!
@BulbasaurLeaves
Жыл бұрын
I like the style. It's fun and nostalgic
@TheRedCubeYT
5 ай бұрын
this is secondary school level maths
@nsuinteger-au
2 ай бұрын
bam!
@asrao3788
4 ай бұрын
In India due to competition for engineering entrance exam teacher majorly focus on question types rather than concept in depth. Im glad there is a place where people learn for fun not just for competition, also appreiciate teachers like you who can turn subjects into magic. Keep up the good work! From now on I'm permanent on this channel. You are the best!
@statquest
4 ай бұрын
Thank you very much!
@mikejohns1347
2 жыл бұрын
I "stumbled" upon the contingency table method many years ago when trying teach myself the basics of probability. This approach is really the only approach for developing a solid understanding of conditional probability, as well as joint and marginal probability. I've never seen anyone present it this way and I'm so glad to see it here! Just more evidence that Josh Starmer is an absolute master instructor.
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
BAM! Thank you very much! :)
@endahfajarwati8336
2 жыл бұрын
you know, me too.
@Ash-bc8vw
2 жыл бұрын
Hey this table reminds me of confusion matrix from a ML classification problem
@turtle3341
2 жыл бұрын
this is how i wish people taught stuff, i really hope these ways of learning statistics get the recognition they deserve! please keep it up !!!!
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@drpkmath12345
3 жыл бұрын
Very nice video for sure. Conditional prob is one of the topics students feel the most difficulty when they start studying for stat! Great job!
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Thank you! :)
@shinej11
2 жыл бұрын
I always thought I was incapable of learning math, but it had always intrigued me. I just discovered what was missing; a good teacher. Thank you very much.
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
bam!
@PastryDonut
2 жыл бұрын
I'm in the same boat as you man, love this channel
@leandroimail
2 жыл бұрын
I love these classes. They are so easy to understand. Thks you for sharing with us!
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Thank you very much! :)
@Oliver-cn5xx
3 жыл бұрын
Hi Josh, I am a long time fan of your channel and all of the shameless self-promotion has guilted me into buying one of your study guides (LDA). They seem great, a nice supplement to your videos. Though I think you would benefit greatly from stripping down the ordering process, I mean for online purchases almost noone asks for complete addresses, phone numbers and names anymore. I fought very hard with myself to finish it and parting with that information, and I succeeded simply because of being so grateful for the videos you provide. You'd probably sell a lot more of these if you just ask for an email. Like most. Cheers
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the advice! I'll see what I can do to simplify the ordering process.
@dizetoot
3 жыл бұрын
THANK YOU! I've really been struggling to get an intuitive understanding of conditional probability and this has helped so much!
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Glad it helped!
@vavy5652
Жыл бұрын
You are literally saving me from my statistics exam! Thank you so much, your explanations are brilliant and you are really making me focus with your simple and funny ways. Thank you again!
@statquest
Жыл бұрын
Good luck! :)
@ivlivs.c3666
Жыл бұрын
Incredibly well-explained. Thank you!
@statquest
Жыл бұрын
Thank you! :)
@onurkrmz9206
3 жыл бұрын
Today I discovered your channel and it is truly a gem. As a EEE student who tries to make sense of subject of probability and neural network stuff, I believe I will benefit a lot from your work and be thankful for rest of my life. Especially statistics is challenging as things get messy a lot and scary/unintuitive equations with confusing notations start to appear. I did not look at all of your videos yet, but I hope that you did statistics less scary for those like me. My best regards
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Awesome! Here's a page that lists all of my videos (and playlists etc): statquest.org/video-index/
@jacob.9664
5 ай бұрын
Soda and Candy > Mechanical engineering degree. Thank you it was very helpful!
@statquest
5 ай бұрын
BAM! :)
@jacktrimboli
2 жыл бұрын
I get a dopamine rush every time this man says bam
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
bam!
@buihung3704
11 ай бұрын
A 6 years old can understand this. That's genius
@statquest
11 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@faiazrummankhan5589
3 жыл бұрын
This channel is the bible of " Making 'Understanding Statistics' Easy !"
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
bam! :)
@dhendroid2373
2 жыл бұрын
This is how every tutorial should be!
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@sillyfarmerbilly8872
3 жыл бұрын
"statsquatch" I love it 😂 Also I guess I never put together that you could use the probabilities to calculate conditional probabilies, super helpful
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
BAM! :)
@azinkhodadadi7912
2 жыл бұрын
I should of paid you instead of my useless lecturer at university! This is so much more useful thank you!
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Glad I could help!
@yujan9103
2 жыл бұрын
Well explained. Bit long but makes the concept clear as possible. A big THANK YOU Josh.
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@sanjeevsingh-zz2hg
Жыл бұрын
Your way of teaching ! Bam!
@statquest
Жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@MuspiMeroll
4 ай бұрын
i love you this actually helped so much
@statquest
4 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@EngRiadAlmadani
3 жыл бұрын
BAMMM!!!! Great work Can you make video about bayesian classifier because it's depending on conditional probability
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
I've already done that. Here's the link: kzitem.info/news/bejne/sGiCmImscqKVd3Y
@janiceoou
3 жыл бұрын
I was looking for sth like this recently, thanks for somehow read my mind XD (I guess some kinda probability?? BAM!
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
BAM! :)
@anashaat95
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks a lot. Clearly explained as you stated.
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@BrittanyFunke
11 ай бұрын
This was amazing and fun. Thank you!
@statquest
11 ай бұрын
Glad you enjoyed it!
@vinodliyanage4128
3 жыл бұрын
Best explanation ever. Thank you! ❤️
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Thank you! :)
@RaceyBeats
2 жыл бұрын
So bloody good!
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@AndrywMarques
3 жыл бұрын
Great video! I never saw the "long version" to write conditional probabilities before but it's better to understand. Very intuitive!
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Yes, I like it more, too.
@sigmakings7285
Жыл бұрын
That's a great one.thank you😊
@statquest
Жыл бұрын
Glad you liked it!
@siennadae-knight5598
20 күн бұрын
Just about started crying when the cartoon-y jingle and graphics started and felt a weight lift off my shoulders when you introduced the contigency table. I have 0 background in prob and stats, always hated the subject, and was terrified it would be impossible for me to learn. None of the symbols made sense to me. The concepts gave me a headache. And I wouldn't even know where to begin asking questions considering no matter how much I seemed to "understand" what my professor was saying in class, the moment I saw a homework question, complete blank. I thought I was doomed to just memorizing formulas that made no sense to me, which isn't a great thing to say as an engineering student. Thank you. I've been saved by your channel.
@statquest
20 күн бұрын
Happy to help! :)
@usethisforproductivity-tg7xq
5 күн бұрын
erm what the sigma
@HardikBhakhar
4 ай бұрын
Never thought that to understand conditional probabilities is this easy … thanks prof 🎯
@statquest
4 ай бұрын
bam! :)
@yonatanaquinteror2989
2 жыл бұрын
Awesome! BAM!!!
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
:)
@shangauri
3 жыл бұрын
Good one Josh. Any plans of making videos on "Time series Models" ?
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
One day! :)
@IarukaSkYouk
2 ай бұрын
I FUCKING HATE PROBABILITIES SO MUCH I ACTUALYL GAVE UP 3 TIMES LEARNING THE COURSE (THE COURSE IS HIGH QUALITY IM JUST VERY STUPID) IM SO SO SO GLAD IM STARTING TO GET IT FROM YOUR VIDEOS JOSH. YOU'RE DEFINITELY THE #1 GUY ON KZitem.
@statquest
2 ай бұрын
thanks! :)
@LukaszWiklendt
3 жыл бұрын
It's interesting notation that you keep the superfluous condition on the left side of the pipe. I.e. using p(c=0 and s=1 | s=1) instead of p(c=0 | s=1). Do you find students understand it better this way?
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Yes. To me it is much clearer.
@RikyPerdana
2 жыл бұрын
God has prepared a special place in heaven for those who enlight others in knowledge. May us meet you there one day. Peace from Indonesia
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@dyles1832
3 жыл бұрын
The people demand a Montecarlo Simulations StatQuest!!!
@justinwhite2725
3 жыл бұрын
That would be nice.
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
I'll keep that in mind. We may get to something like it when I cover bayesian statistics.
@tomr03status99
3 жыл бұрын
That could be nice
@rejithmadhavan5735
2 жыл бұрын
Logical explanation, precision and genuineness - your way of teaching exemplifies these essential qualities. Thanks so much Josh for these great lessons. Invaluable effort!
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Wow, thank you!
@jbetanco7733
2 жыл бұрын
good job
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@shamsulazhar
3 жыл бұрын
Finally, I understand this. BAM!!!!
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Bam!
@Darkev77
3 жыл бұрын
This might sound like a silly question but, shouldn’t one expect that P(A | ~A) = 0, and vice-versa? However this conditional notation doesn’t encompass that
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Actually, it does. What you are asking is "The probability that someone loves candy AND does not love candy given that we know that they love candy". This results in the equation p(loves candy & does not love candy) / p(loves candy) = 0 / (6/14) = 0.
@Darkev77
3 жыл бұрын
@@statquest thanks a lot prof for your clarifications!
@uvofsam
3 жыл бұрын
Bam!! , what a bam person to explain everything about statistics so bamly!!
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@NoahElRhandour
3 жыл бұрын
Bamks!
@incameet
3 жыл бұрын
Would love to see a video about KL divergence.
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Me too and I hope to cover it sometime soon.
@redcat7467
3 жыл бұрын
Why I watched it? I already knew conditional probabilities... UPD.: it makes sence it the end.
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
bam!
@tomr03status99
3 жыл бұрын
Bam
@Yon_Solo
Жыл бұрын
TRIPLE BAM!!!
@statquest
Жыл бұрын
YES! :)
@talentlancer1358
5 ай бұрын
Thank you so much! This is the best video on conditional probability on internet.
@statquest
5 ай бұрын
Thank you!
@kekahazra9769
7 ай бұрын
Bam! I like the way you teach.....keep up!....Bam Bam!😅
@statquest
7 ай бұрын
Thank you very much! BAM! :)
@Regular.Biceps
2 жыл бұрын
Exceptional explanation... I'm Completely in love with your teaching style
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@Nakameguro97
3 жыл бұрын
Thank you SO MUCH for clarifying that AB = A and B, when A and B are events. I get confused because XY is literally multiplication when X and Y are random variables. It can be doubly confusing because both events and random variables (even though they are different types) can be passed into P(), the probability function. Function overloading is a thing in computer programming, but I’m shocked to see it in math. Also, the implied A and B in P(A | B) is a lifesaver, many times over. BTW, understanding the tables in this video is pivotal in grasping marginal distributions, Baye’s Theorem, and joint probability distributions - it feels like I’m getting the other three concepts for free!
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Triple bam!!! :)
@surendrabarsode8959
3 жыл бұрын
Very well explained as usual!! BTW, do you have any plans for making videos on stochastic calculus topics like Brownian motion, Ito integral, martingale measures etc. If so, I am looking forward to them.
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
I'll keep those topics in mind.
@tomr03status99
3 жыл бұрын
👍👍👍👍
@1973vgc
3 жыл бұрын
great!
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@tomr03status99
3 жыл бұрын
👍👍👍
@colinirvine757
2 жыл бұрын
Great job Josh!!!!! This is such a clear and precisely laid out video perfect for my students.
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
bam!
@AndrywMarques
3 жыл бұрын
Next video: Bayes theorem
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
yep
@tomr03status99
3 жыл бұрын
👍👍
@bartekpacia
Жыл бұрын
There was TRIPLE BAM but no DOUBLE BAM! Is everything okay???
@statquest
Жыл бұрын
Bam! :)
@helgemeyer6511
Ай бұрын
What is the probability of a video being great GIVEN that we know it is made by Josh? Pretty close to 100%, I'd say!
@statquest
Ай бұрын
BAM! :)
@phuctran4679
3 жыл бұрын
Thank you Josh & the team. I'm so grateful I've found your channel. You make me truly love statistics!
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Glad you enjoy it!
@sinecurve9999
3 жыл бұрын
Conditional probability is Bayes theorem in disguise. P(loves candy and soda | loves soda) = P(loves soda | loves candy and soda)*P(loves candy and soda)/P(loves soda). P(loves soda | loves candy and soda) =1, so P(loves candy and soda | loves soda) = P(loves candy and soda)/P(loves soda).
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Yep. My next StatQuest will be on bayes' theorem
@ethanblackthorn3533
3 жыл бұрын
@@statquest looking forward very much to it!
@sinecurve9999
3 жыл бұрын
@@statquest BAM!!
@baqirhusain5652
2 жыл бұрын
You are a GOD of simple explanations
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@SGdata-t3m
3 ай бұрын
BAM!
@statquest
3 ай бұрын
:)
@tsaashik8048
Ай бұрын
BAM!!!!
@statquest
Ай бұрын
:)
@easytutorial1869
3 жыл бұрын
What should I choose between B.tech Cse with specialization in ai/ml engineering and B.tech Cse with specialization in data science?
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
The answer to that question really depends on your interests.
@easytutorial1869
3 жыл бұрын
@@statquest But what has more scope or the scope is not going to end soon
@tomr03status99
3 жыл бұрын
It totally depend on your interest man
@muzaff
2 жыл бұрын
BAM!
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
:)
@christosantonopoulos2018
2 жыл бұрын
Okay so what is the probablity when we take A given B is taken a step further like when A and B coexist within and encompass each other, is this to you all impossible I think not as if we go into biology class A and B will coexist and occupy the same space every time a sperm fertilizes an egg in the creation of a new life. does this mean that the probable outcome will contain all of A and B
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
If A = loves candy and B = loves a specific candy, then p(A given B) = 1.
@MrBabadude
3 жыл бұрын
Hey Josh can you do a video on ANOVA?
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
I already have one. It's part of my series on linear models: kzitem.info/door/PLblh5JKOoLUIzaEkCLIUxQFjPIlapw8nU
@jacktaylor1516
3 жыл бұрын
This is one of the best explanations of absolutely anything I've ever seen and heard. Well done. Subscribed.
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Awesome, thank you!
@swarnachoppella388
2 жыл бұрын
Thank you! Great content always🤩
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
My pleasure!
@levine1886
3 жыл бұрын
Any chance you could post a video on when to run regular linear regression vs. time series ARIMA?
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
I'll keep that in mind.
@swarupghadei3590
3 жыл бұрын
Hi Josh , how do we proceed if we have 3 variables ?(Soda Candy and Wafers) ?
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
The same way, we just end up with a more complicated table.
@mrbagginz5963
5 ай бұрын
Thx
@statquest
5 ай бұрын
:)
@mrbagginz5963
5 ай бұрын
No really that helped me so much your explanations are great
@CW-vl9zd
6 ай бұрын
Good video that cleared up a lot of my questions. Only thing I'm confused now tho is 9:20 let's say we are given all the probabilities. How do I know if a probability is p(not love c and loves s | loves s) or p(loves s | not love c and loves s)? Confused because we know both the numerator and denominator. Thanks
@statquest
6 ай бұрын
Well, the second one, p(loves s | not love c and loves s), really doesn't make sense to calculate at all. This is because the conditional part, "not love c and loves s" is only a subset of "loves s", and thus, the conditional part does not give us any useful information about the larger "loves s" population.
@CW-vl9zd
6 ай бұрын
@@statquest Thank you!
@notnilc2107
3 жыл бұрын
Double bam!
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
:)
@tomr03status99
3 жыл бұрын
Bam
@fabriciomagalhaessena2289
Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for this video! It saves my life hahaha
@statquest
Жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@ADESHKUMAR-yz2el
3 жыл бұрын
i want to visit statland oneday and will try all types of soda does anyone have idea how to get there 🤔
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
I've got a map somewhere. Let me see if I can find it.
@tsigeasteraye4485
2 ай бұрын
This is amazing way of explanation!
@statquest
2 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@marcustumelomakofane4578
5 ай бұрын
Omg, I love this so much 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@statquest
5 ай бұрын
:)
@zaf3153
Жыл бұрын
Super easy ti understand! Thanks alot
@statquest
Жыл бұрын
Glad it helped!
@kayhankashi9970
11 ай бұрын
SUPERB explanation... BAAAM !!!!!
@statquest
11 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@ShashwatAgarwal007
3 жыл бұрын
Happy Guru Purnima Sir, So blessed that this channel exists. ❤️🙏
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Thank you! And thank you for supporting StatQuest! BAM! :)
@tomr03status99
3 жыл бұрын
❤️❤️
@luizfernandorabelo5570
2 жыл бұрын
BAM!
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
:)
@Florithepenguin
6 ай бұрын
Struggled with this topic literally for years! You solved my problem within just 10 min.! 🎉
@statquest
6 ай бұрын
Bam! :)
@qwerty11111122
3 жыл бұрын
Hi Josh! I've been working with DEseq2 a lot. Is dispersion shrinkage on your TODO list for statquest? I realize it's a little more of a niche topic for bioinformatics than broadly applicable tho
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
I'll keep it in mind.
@cwtrain
3 жыл бұрын
"And then, the coup de grace of all bams, the sinister triple-BAM!"
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
dang!
@tomr03status99
3 жыл бұрын
Bam
@coolroblox12345
2 жыл бұрын
My school linked this in the work that we are doing
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
nice!
@anthonyrinna1305
7 ай бұрын
First, I'll admit I had "Do you love orange soda?" from Keenan and Kel in the back of my mind. That said, this video has been immensely helpful, thank you!
@statquest
7 ай бұрын
:)
@AbcdAbcd-ol5hn
2 жыл бұрын
😭😭😭😭thanks a lot😭😭😭god bless you, u are doing a noble job, may you get all the riches, love and happiness in the world
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Thank you very much! :)
@SarahFeng92
Жыл бұрын
Your channel is amazing, I wish I had discovered it earlier! Would you ever consider making the slides available for sale? I would absolutely buy them.
@statquest
Жыл бұрын
I have some of them for sale here: statquest.org/statquest-store/
@kensarmoreto1863
2 жыл бұрын
although that i calculate conditional probability during college, i cannot get the concept of it leaving a gap in my stat knowledge... i stumbled in your video and i have a basic understanding about it. im just need a more examples regarding conditional probability to fully master this concept... Thanks Josh for your videos and hoping for more topics about stats and data analysis.
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
I'm glad my video was helpful! :)
@rishikeshpillay
3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for this explanation.....It really help me to grasp this topic....
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Bam!
@AnuragSharma-mq2gn
2 жыл бұрын
That's a lot of candy and soda... BAM !! 😅
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
:)
@Harry-on5pz
4 ай бұрын
my hero 😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😭😭😭😭😭😭
@statquest
4 ай бұрын
:)
@VictorBanerjeeF
3 жыл бұрын
Probably Understand, 🔥 Double Bam 😂
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
:)
@tomr03status99
3 жыл бұрын
Bam
@between_the_lines6173
Жыл бұрын
You're the statistics buddha! The analogies and the calming voice!
@statquest
Жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@pratyushkashyap849
Жыл бұрын
Incredible lecture!! Bamm😀
@statquest
Жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@justinwhite2725
3 жыл бұрын
Oh no!! What happened to the other 200 residents of statland!? In the expected values video there were 214!
@statquest
3 жыл бұрын
Great question! It was summer in StatLand when I made this video so they must have all been on vacation in Norway.
@BARAKABLESSING
2 жыл бұрын
This helped understand c prob. I am taking a mandatory into to stat class with no math experience and passion. Thanks
@statquest
2 жыл бұрын
Good luck!
@hiidf
6 ай бұрын
does it applies to all questions of conditional probability or any conditions?
@statquest
6 ай бұрын
I'm pretty sure it does.
@tyt03538
3 жыл бұрын
This is the best video explaining conditional probability. Hands down.
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