Take the PERCENTAGE of the control group that got covid, and subtract the PERCENTAGE of the vaccine group that got covid, The result is the unadvertised absolute risk reduction. Suddenly 95% efficacy gets reduced to less than 1%, thus for each person who avoided a covid diagnoses, over 100 people had to be vaccinated.
@robertolson3115
3 жыл бұрын
@@canoedoc2390 - Excellent points!
@Anthony-cc8bx
3 жыл бұрын
Wrong. Because transmission is ongoing. Vaccines do not stop transmission. Even vaccinated people were positive in the test and in real world. The virus does not have a brain to know who is and isn't vaccinated and will enter with equal probability.
@genin69
2 жыл бұрын
they also forgot that not everyone of the 21830 completed the trial on both sides
@oliviaswarthout6375
3 жыл бұрын
I learned a lot making this video - I hope it helps shed some light on the context behind the figures we see in the headlines. Thanks to everyone for supporting my dad’s KZitem so far!
@mohdghani7171
3 жыл бұрын
Thank you Olivia. It was really helpful. Your voice made it amazing☺️☺️ Is there a way we can connect? I want to share some ideas.
@wellnesspathforme6236
3 жыл бұрын
Your presentation was very thorough, logical and, dare I say, effective. ;-)
@robertolson3115
3 жыл бұрын
When you subtracted 0.74 - 0.04 you made no mention the resulting 0.70 was the Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR). You skipped over that vital data point. Then made no mention of its inverse Number Needed to Treat (NNT.) Why were these critical data points omitted? You did a great job of standing up and giving a presentation, but i feel like you were hiding some cards under the table, presenting only Relative Risk Reduction which makes a drug/ vaccine look better than it really is.
@oliviaswarthout6375
3 жыл бұрын
Hiya, that's a fair point! The main idea of the video was just to explain the 95% figure that has been quoted and where it comes from, but you're right that there are a lot of other important figures to take into account. A lot of epidemiological indicators aren't intuitive to interpret, such as indicators of disease risk and p-values, so we decided to focus on just explaining the idea of efficacy. Of course, as the pandemic progresses, we're certainty adjusting that figure. I'm in my third year of a Statistics bachelor's degree and while I still have lots to learn I can promise you that I did my best to faithfully convey my understanding of efficacy vs effectiveness - I wrote the script for this video!
@robertolson3115
3 жыл бұрын
@@oliviaswarthout6375 - Congrats on your 3rd year towards your degree. I really respect that.
@robertolson3115
3 жыл бұрын
@@oliviaswarthout6375 - Perhaps you can make a video explaining the difference between RRR and ARR, and inderstanding NNT. I have been trying to formulate simple words and visual presentation so a 7th grader can grasp the difference. The reason is the public just doesn't understand. They all think the vaccine reduces their individual odds of catching covid by 95%. They are clueless how the large number of participants dilutes the odds.
@jmgmetal
3 жыл бұрын
Not only makes the vaccine look better..it makes it look WAY better. ARR is the number people need to hear about for sure..no way in hell am I getting this vax.
@DP-eo5xd
2 жыл бұрын
@@jmgmetal you have to look at RRR. ARr means nothing especially at the time of the trials when much of the country was in lockdown with a lot of safety measures. You really think if you act normally, your chance of getting Covid is only ~1%? With delta the vast majority of humans on planet earth will eventually be infected with Covid. So you have to look at RRR. Because assuming people in both cohorts were very safe and socially distance and wearing masks, it doesn’t explain the wide discrepancy in infections when comparing placebo versus vaccine. It is showing the vaccine works despite any random errors that come from everyone being ultra-safe and distanced
@philipdodson7870
3 жыл бұрын
Great explanation! How many people were hospitalized or died? I feel this is more important and rarely discussed.
@vicmercd9136
2 жыл бұрын
Out of the 21720 (Vaccinated), 8 people tested +ve 0.037% Out of the 21728 (Placebo), 162 tested +ve 0.75% Out of the 21720 (Vaccinated ), 1 person got severe Covid. 0.004% Out of the 21728 (Placebo), 9 people got severe Covid. 0.041% * Absolute Efficiency - Vaxxed 99.96% - Placebo 99.25% So there is a slim difference between vaccinated and none vaccinated. So why you take the vaccine that we don't know the long term side effects.
@bearhug7335
2 жыл бұрын
@@vicmercd9136 BINGO!
@civilizedbusta
3 жыл бұрын
So in essence..we are the final trial for effectiveness. Great. I did sincerely enjoy your video, thank you.
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
Glad you liked the video. Thanks for the comment.
@rogermccoy1195
3 жыл бұрын
Apply the Absolute Risk Reduction to the population NOT the Relative Risk Reduction. The 95% is the Relative Risk Reduction.
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the comment.
@terryfrancis1026
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks for really simplifying these concepts.
@stepbystepscience
2 жыл бұрын
You're very welcome!
@damon123jones
3 жыл бұрын
tell us about the participants BMI, pre existing illness, vaccinated previously? age and race
@TakeYourPick
3 жыл бұрын
What about absolute risk?
@tonykonvalin9959
3 жыл бұрын
One thing to be clear on the "infected" was not simply having CV - symptoms or not. In reading the trials protocol , I have read it all for both, for Pfizer and Moderna an infection was defined as showing one or two symptoms and "then" getting a PCR test to verify. Thus while the powers that be endlessly speak of "cases" as defined by a PCR test, symptoms or not, the use of "infection" here does not do that and thus only deals with those with symptoms so does not deal with "actual" infection and the ability to transmit the virus. End result is Pfizer and Moderna are using the word "infection" unlike it is used daily so there is no proof this stops real infection and is actually somewhat misleading.
@thethinkingman-
2 жыл бұрын
efficacy is about COMPARING vaccinated to unvaccinated (during clinical trials) 170 got covid. 8 were vaccinated and 162 were not. the number of vaccinated people (who got covid) was 4.94% of the number of UNvaccinated people who got covid (ie. 8/162) so the vaccinated are said to be 95.06% better off when COMPARED to those not vacinated. so efficacy is said to be 95% ( bigger % means more sales)
@oliviaswarthout6375
2 жыл бұрын
Exactly, I’m so glad the calculations make sense to you!
@jimmyshibari4006
3 жыл бұрын
I'm from Malaysia. I'm about to receive my first vaccine. This is very helpful for me to make an informed decision. A very precise and concise explanation. Easy to understand even though English is not my first language. Really appreciate your effort and initiative to educate the world. Thanks a million!
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
We are very glad you like the video and wish you all the best. Stay healthy!
@lessmith1409
3 жыл бұрын
Such propaganda from phizer
@leeamraa
2 жыл бұрын
amazing!!! thank you, such a lovely couple!!!
@stepbystepscience
2 жыл бұрын
You're welcome. The video was made by a father-daughter team.
@fhamm7546
2 жыл бұрын
Beautiful AND smart. Well done.
@MikeStaubes
3 жыл бұрын
Olivia, you are fantastic...(Brian, keep her on payroll.)
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
Thanks, Mike!
@davegordon6233
10 ай бұрын
Vaccines from coronavirus do not prevent transmission. So it is a big question how all the vaccines producers got transmission prevention numbers in the high 90s range.
@stepbystepscience
10 ай бұрын
Immunization is the process of being made resistant to an infectious disease, usually by means of a vaccine.
@justlou717
3 жыл бұрын
I want to start by saying that I agree 95% does not mean 100%, but I’m disappointed that an argument for that debate was never presented. Can you explain why that math shouldn’t give extreme confidence in travel? “2 million people that’s a lot of people” should be his argument.
@oliviaswarthout6375
3 жыл бұрын
You should have confidence that you'll be able to travel soon, just not until we are sure that the vaccines are all effective and have been widely distributed ;)
@JariloBendis
3 жыл бұрын
Did they test all participants from both groups or only those who develops symptoms?
@positivelybeautiful1
3 жыл бұрын
Thank you very much for educating us in “lamen’s terms.”
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
We're glad you like the video. Thanks for your comment.
@anon.4840
3 жыл бұрын
*laymans
@clipsup5122
3 жыл бұрын
Very useful info! Deserves a million views!
@seiyachan
3 жыл бұрын
If a vaccine is really effective, one should not be fear to get into contact with the virus. What good is a vaccine if you still have to be scared of getting it.
@kannankamal5446
3 жыл бұрын
Perfect 👍🎊🎉 explanation
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for your support!
@pawemalanowski9945
3 жыл бұрын
This means that in optimal case we gonna have 130 000 cases and potential spreaders in and abroad . Of course this efficacy drop down about 30 percent in heat of season.
@seiyachan
3 жыл бұрын
And when the risk of getting infect is already very low (0.74%... and then the chance you also die from after getting it is 1-2%...if you are older...) It make the efficacy look huge when you reduce the risk by just 0.7%.... What are the dominant age group within the 2 trial groups? Don't know?
@oliviaswarthout6375
3 жыл бұрын
Hi Skyler, 0.74% was the chance of study participants getting infected during the 28-day study period, not anyone getting infected overall during the whole pandemic. Infection and mortality rates can depend on a huge number of factors as we've seen many countries report different rates.
@chrisschoenfeld4414
3 жыл бұрын
The intro is confusing because he is vastly *underestimating*, not *overestimating*, the protection the vaccine provides. What he “thinks” 95% means is (e.g. 100% vaccinated = 5 infected) is what in the trial, is represented as 99.96% - correct? (A recent 700k study in Oregon closely mirrors this figure at 99.97%) Finally, the 95% is also does not represent the effect of the vaccine on the course of the disease if infected and ability to transmit, which is huge. That said, everyone should continue defined safe practices regardless of vaccination status, so I get including that message, it’s just presented in a confusing way here.
@dido1803
3 жыл бұрын
Hi there, this was awesome presentation. Now I understand much more.
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
Thanks, glad it was helpful!
@peterjuriss463
3 жыл бұрын
What was the Ct rate? Over 35 is nucleoid debris according to Fauci.
@rashidminhas6864
3 жыл бұрын
you are great Olivia
@user-hc9sk3mg1h
2 жыл бұрын
But it's still in trial can you make a video breaking down was a trial is?
@stepbystepscience
2 жыл бұрын
Good suggestion. Will consider doing that.
@danroux4010
3 жыл бұрын
It would be interesting to know how if the death rate was reduced in those who tested positive from the vaccinated vs placebo group. I have seen information suggesting that the vaccinated who catch covid are far less likely to die from it. That in itself makes a vaccine very attractive if its true.
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
Yes, I have read the same thing. Thanks for your comment.
@HemantSharma-fw2gx
3 жыл бұрын
simple explanation. Thank you!
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
You're very welcome!
@jackwinters8028
3 жыл бұрын
Thank you for explaining it 🙏
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
My pleasure 😊
@jarosawszyc8287
3 жыл бұрын
Wonderful video! People need such an education these days :)
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
Thanks very much, we agree!
@edwardlewis1963
3 жыл бұрын
so what we really need to figure out is how effective the vaccine is at providing immunity.
@ZaBuZaMoMoChi86
3 жыл бұрын
The number has been already obtained and it's between 0.7-1% of effectiveness.
@downwithputinsaveukraine1313
3 жыл бұрын
Real science on youtube? YOU ARE BANNED!!!
@geirha75
3 жыл бұрын
Excellent explanation!
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
Glad you think so!
@CrasyFingers
3 жыл бұрын
does developing a vaccine more quickly make it more efficacious? i was thinking that some flu vaccines that are lower efficacy like 20 to 40%, i thought one of the reason is because they take as much as 5 years to make and by the time they're out the virus already changed too much, and i was thinking the fact that the covid vaccine was made really fast is actually good, is that how it works?
@waynechamanhuggins9766
3 жыл бұрын
Excellent explanation
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
Glad you think so!
@mytruthlieshere
3 жыл бұрын
Thanks this was very informative
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
So glad you liked it. Thanks for watching!
@woojimful
3 жыл бұрын
thank you for a very informative video!
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
You're very welcome!
@perrypelican9476
3 жыл бұрын
Will the pandemic ever be over? Do vaccinated people who get covid get a milder case of the virus or what?
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
According to the WHO, developing immunity through vaccination helps you fight the virus if exposed.
@wolfiegenesisproductions2209
3 жыл бұрын
Oh wow,she looks cute
@deangreenhough3479
3 жыл бұрын
Then why do the pharmaceuticals have a blanket cover of immunity against legal action? Is this because they have been unable to test, as you said, the vulnerable, pregnant women and children. Therefore the testing at best is somewhat incomplete. When you also factor in the rush to get this through (a world record by any existing standard), this makes me very concerned. Do your research, bearing in mind that you have no legal recourse if this has an adverse reaction. Why, when 99.7% of people whom have this recover, would you want to put in some thing that was only 95% effective? Also the NNT (number needed to treat) look that one up, you may be surprised. Keep your minds sharp people and make well informed decisions and trust your gut instinct. 🙏🏴
@FEMADEATHCAMPCONTROL
3 жыл бұрын
"Then why do the pharmaceuticals have a blanket cover of immunity against legal action?" Because they simply would refuse to make a vaccine if they were going to be held liable for any side effects. They test as well as they can, but there will inevitably be some allergic reactions and given how litiginous people are these days they wouldnt be keen on paying multi million damages. They are doing it as a national and international effort to control a pandemic not as a long term business model. This is why govts set up compensation schemes themselves to deal with this, after all its the govts asking the companies to produce the vaccine, not the other way round.
@FEMADEATHCAMPCONTROL
3 жыл бұрын
"you have no legal recourse if this has an adverse reaction." Incorrect, as with any vaccine you have recourse through govt run vaccine damages schemes.
@FEMADEATHCAMPCONTROL
3 жыл бұрын
"Why, when 99.7% of people whom have this recover, would you want to put in some thing that was only 95% effective?" Its fatal in over 10% of the over 70s, even more so the older you get. Your figure is meaningless. And why on earth wouldnt you want to take a vaccine thats 95% effective? Thats way higher than most other vaccines in existence.
@joej.3962
3 жыл бұрын
Swine flu and Bird flu never worked either!
@joej.3962
3 жыл бұрын
Swine flu and Bird flu vaccines never worked either!
@gregor7789
3 жыл бұрын
Great video 👍
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
Thanks, glad you liked it.
@gemel7801
3 жыл бұрын
Thank you..its clear now!!
@stepbystepscience
3 жыл бұрын
You're welcome!
@bradleymeacham2348
3 жыл бұрын
I liked your video a lot! I have been trying to research for a instructional KZitem video that really explains everything in this KZitem vid. 🥼Your breakdown really reminds me of the channel of this smart med student Doctor Ethan! Doctor Ethan's demonstrations are actually useful and I learned a lot for finals. I recommend you check his channel out and give the health enthusiast a like! ➡️ #DoctorEthan
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