None of us have, or ever will have, complete information.
We can make the "best" decisions possible with the information we have.
Question: Spend the time, effort, and maybe money it takes to get more info, or just make a decision?
What is the marginal utility of getting more information vs. making a decision now?
If no major downside apparent and is easily reversible, I tend to gravitate toward making the decision; otherwise, I go into a more in-depth cost/benefit analysis.
Is there a suitable heuristic for me to use that will get me a result that is "good enough?"
We are not rational beings.
- It's often a delusion to think that we're rationally pursuing rational goals. We may very well be rationally pursuing irrational goals, irrationally pursuing rational goals, or irrationally pursuing irrational goals.
- It's okay to go for what you want as long as you aren't being immoral and unethical about it.
- It's okay for you to change your mind about what you want. Remember, we don't have perfect information, but can constantly come upon new information. As I mentioned in a previous video, moving forward in life will provide more information to you in higher resolution than you would get by staying still.
- It's okay to make mistakes.
There is a tendency for many "thinkers" to fall into hubris. We have likely gone and thought about things a lot; it's important to remember that we don't have all the information. Even more likely is that the place for us to get information is somewhere we don't like very much. After all, the places we don't like are often the places we don't explore. That means that there is a great deal of information to be gleaned beyond our "comfort zone." So, part of our exploration should be exploring things that we don't want to explore; hanging out with people we don't like; thinking about things we'd rather not think about, etc..
Негізгі бет Decision Making | Incomplete Information, Irrationality, and Hubris | ENTJ Lunch 'n' Learn, Ep. 1
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