Who is more likely to win the Presidential Election as of today? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe! Subscribe to my free newsletter: davidlinreport.substack.com/
@Stockguy101
Ай бұрын
Trump 💯
@jeffjohnson3287
Ай бұрын
I’m afraid this Lichtman has been sipping the MSNBC kool-Aid !
@IFYOUWANTITGOGETIT
Ай бұрын
Trump and the MAGA theocracy is more hated now than ever. The country is VERY divided. Women aren’t as vocal as men about what they do in the ballot box. No one knows.
@IFYOUWANTITGOGETIT
Ай бұрын
Women won’t vote for total abortion ban.
@Stockguy101
Ай бұрын
@@IFYOUWANTITGOGETIT lol not gonna happen under Trump get a grip 🤣
@Carolhumphreykoral
Ай бұрын
This man predicted trump would win .when all the polls and pundits were all saying hillary would win.
@jennifersanchezdelaguarda3753
Ай бұрын
YUP. He even has an autograph from trump for that prediction!
@lstueve1131
Ай бұрын
@@jennifersanchezdelaguarda3753 Then he demanded it back when he lost in 2020.
@jennifersanchezdelaguarda3753
Ай бұрын
@@lstueve1131 No he didn't! Did he, really?
@EV-rc4jm
Ай бұрын
VOTING FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN/HARRIS❤💙💙💙💙💙💙❤❤
@_mark_3814
Ай бұрын
lol he always put an asterisk on that prediction. And also in 2000 when gore won the pv but lost the election he claimed the mode predicted the popular vote up until after 2016 then he switched his tune😂
@memehistorian9551
Ай бұрын
Professor gets called all kinds of names every election because he tells people what they dont want to hear
@adamwilliams9487
Ай бұрын
He’s wrong about the prices going down in June. 1000% wrong.
@PrincessGold1
Ай бұрын
Here in Australia tonight, 4 hrs ago on the most reputable and reliable news source in the country was a world economic report. That report included that prices in the USA have begun to go down. Fact.
@ryankjay
Ай бұрын
@@adamwilliams9487 what do you mean....prices have gone down as an avg....he didn't forecast prices going down on specific items.
@mariamiley3842
Ай бұрын
It did went down some
@dvntaudio8106
Ай бұрын
@@adamwilliams9487 he is way off base and is got Trump derangement syndrome. Coping big time. Biden at 46% 😂 try 26% or 16%.
@jamallyoungblood7119
Ай бұрын
This isn't about who he prefers. He's showing you the keys using a scientific METHOD that's NOT biased. You people are mad claiming he is biased, but science is not biased. He also predicted Trump win in 2016 but you won't claim bias about that
@AmerikiDork
Ай бұрын
No. He proves his bias when he claims that Trump lied every minute of the debate.
@Zummbot
Ай бұрын
@@AmerikiDorkThat’s a fact-based assertion, not his opinion. You can’t call someone biased when he can demonstrate objectively that Trump lied every minute.
@FeelingPeculiar
Ай бұрын
@@ZummbotThen list all of those lies
@MarkSav1
Ай бұрын
@@FeelingPeculiar Trump misleadingly claimed that he was “the one that got the insulin down for the seniors,” not Biden. Lie. Trump warned that Biden “wants to raise your taxes by four times,” but Biden has not proposed anything like that. Lie. Trump repeated his false claim that “everybody,” including all legal scholars, wanted to end Roe v. Wade’s constitutional right to abortion. Lie. Trump falsely claimed that “some states” run by Democrats allow abortions “after birth.” If it happened, it would be homicide, and that’s illegal. Lies and lies…
@jamallyoungblood7119
Ай бұрын
@@AmerikiDork that's not about bias. That's a fact. If Trump says the sky is orange and the professor says that's clearly a lie, it's not bias to call Trump out on it. It's simply the truth. When data and empirical evidence shows you are lying, it simply is what it is
@MossyOctopus
Ай бұрын
To everyone saying he is biased… he is very honest about his opinions but his opinion doesnt affect his analysis. He has predicted about the same number of republicans as he has democrats… including trump in 2016. He looks at the facts.
@andrewwickham4642
Ай бұрын
@@MossyOctopus and you believe in the tooth fairy..
@MossyOctopus
Ай бұрын
@@andrewwickham4642 tell me when the tooth fairy has 9/10 presidential predictions correct because of a scientific model.
@kristenjohnson5625
Ай бұрын
@andrewwickham4642 He's famous because he's always right How does your brain work exactly
@andrewwickham4642
Ай бұрын
You must be a teacher. I can tell as the uni pass for those are 50%
@betty_boom7854
Ай бұрын
@@kristenjohnson5625You do know he is human right?? That does mean HE CAN BE WRONG!!!!
@Kaisaccountt
Ай бұрын
Why is this man getting hate? He’s 10-0 in presidential elections for a reason.
@surfer-lc3nz
Ай бұрын
Fully agreed. He is a certified sage.
@Cevap123
Ай бұрын
Because the facts hurt their feelings lol
@user-ll6ee9wf6p
Ай бұрын
Because lichtmann has forgot more than the rest of these idiots know. I like how the ignorant always call the brilliant dumb or “lacking credibility .” Phonies are always nervous around rhetoric real thing!”
@user-ll6ee9wf6p
Ай бұрын
Because lichtmann has forgot more than the rest of these idiots know. I like how the ignorant always call the brilliant dumb or “lacking credibility .” Phonies are always nervous around rhetoric real thing!”
@clydetedrick1647
Ай бұрын
9-1
@WolePaul-lv7wt
Ай бұрын
This man is a professor. A big-time scholar of data, statistics, and political history for over 40 years. He knew what he's talking about, and he is so sure of the consequences that may follow if his prediction turned out to be inaccurate. I have no obligation to oppose his intellectual work with my political adherence and emotions. He's got the data and figures to back his work up. I have none, just like many of us here.
@catherinedavis1241
Ай бұрын
I agree!
@dvntaudio8106
Ай бұрын
He is quite biased.
@PrincessGold1
Ай бұрын
He's human so he has a personal preference just like you do.is He and his analysis tool to predict the winner of the US Presidential election are world famous. It's a prediction tool. It has nothing to do with his personal preference.
@andrewwickham4642
Ай бұрын
@@WolePaul-lv7wt I’m 62 and I have been following politics in Australia, The UK and USA since I was 8…. I told have any voodoo keys at my disposal just political nous, historical results and been able to read the room as they say…. Over those years my success in predicting results has been pretty good I can report… Especially good in last 20 years through age I imagine… I have to say the only one I got wrong was 2020 when DJT coup took place… Didn’t factor in the lefts cheating factor… With all my simple experience (not a loop professor) I can tell you…. Donald J Trump, GOP House and GOP Senate will be in landslide victory 2024!! Liberal Flake 😢🤪 Book you room in the wilderness
@betty_boom7854
Ай бұрын
@@CircusOfValues-BH486We will see in November! 😂😂❤❤❤❤❤TRUMP 2024❤❤❤❤
@cbC-uo2qy
Ай бұрын
HE WILL GIVE HIS PREDICTION AFTER THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION.
@Angie2343
Ай бұрын
Next month.
@andrewwickham4642
Ай бұрын
@@cbC-uo2qy Correct!! But you watch the Lick-Man… He will adjust his loopy keys to work to a Trump Win… His keys are like the media… Made up crap…
@girloninternet1188
Ай бұрын
It'll be Trump lmfao
@karenb724
12 күн бұрын
Hoping for Trump. I really don't think our country can survive another 4 Progressive years. We may go bankrupt .
@Angie2343
12 күн бұрын
@@karenb724 Absolutely not. Harris-Walz will crush him!
@CosmicApe
Ай бұрын
The guy is just talking historical facts on both parties, literally hasn't changed his method in 40 years that are based on 160 years of historical politics, hasn't gotten a prediction wrong yet if you factor his 2000 prediction was proven correct, yet so many hurt feelings in the comments about the idea that their candidate won't win and assume this guy is biased.
@FuzzCuzz-f9c
Ай бұрын
But he didn’t predict an assassination attempt and an iconic picture with a raised fist in front of an American flag that would put Trump ahead in every swing state.
@Godhatesfatpeople
Ай бұрын
@@FuzzCuzz-f9c That's not true at all. lol
@user-ob1wb3ue6g
Ай бұрын
@@FuzzCuzz-f9c dude biden dropped out of the election like 20 minutes ago
@girloninternet1188
Ай бұрын
His 2000 prediction was WRONG. Also he's biased af, he's still whining about getting 2000 wrong and he's an obnoxious anti-Trumper who hasn't even been correctly applying his own system to this election because he's so terrified of thinking Trump will win again. Case in point, he actually thinks Biden has 2 of the keys for his "good" economy. That's how frickin' delusional this guy is.
@geo3141
Ай бұрын
Well he IS biased, calling Trump a dictator, will destroy independent media, and everything else... But hopefully he won't let that influence his math
@naturalississimo
Ай бұрын
Allan Lichtman is great! I also like him. His method is intelligent.
@leftwingersareweak
Ай бұрын
@@naturalississimo He's got a good method. He also has a bad case of Tee Dee Es.
@girloninternet1188
Ай бұрын
He's not tho lol
@vadzhijganem9047
Ай бұрын
Yes, professor Lichtman is an avowed democrat; while you can disagree with his politics, his system has accurately presicted almost every election result since the early 80s. That's an impressive track record.
@juliiseeyou
Ай бұрын
Lichtman is a registered Democrat. Crooks is a registered Republican. Why is Lichtmann getting shit for being a Dem while Crooks is okay and secretly a RINO? Magats rational thought processes must look like an AI video. There's a reason Trump was so proud about the amount of uneducated people under his reign.
@kathleenhartnellharper7234
Ай бұрын
It’s F..kin’ Science!
@Therealam20z
Ай бұрын
*almost* 😅
@niall_sanderson
Ай бұрын
@@Therealam20zThe one exception is 2000, which was so close that the Supreme Court was easily able to sway it in Bush’s favour. And even then, nine out of ten correct predictions is a pretty impressive track record
@bradklepacz4072
Ай бұрын
He lies about 2000 as a partisan. He'll be wrong this year.
@gregwalker6281
Ай бұрын
I think there's more people that love America democracy and the Constitution then hate it
@ImperialRis
Ай бұрын
I'm so happy to have Alan with a level head and experience to help guide us through these tumultuous times.
@supertal244
Ай бұрын
Sarcasm indeed!
@PamiShoodrani
Ай бұрын
Then you should spell his name correctly with two "L"s.
@IFYOUWANTITGOGETIT
Ай бұрын
Don’t forget. Women can vote. And don’t underestimate the impact of taking away women’s rights.
@charlottjohnson5271
Ай бұрын
Please my moxie sisters let's vote
@EikTuKaTu
Ай бұрын
What rights got taken away?
@IFYOUWANTITGOGETIT
Ай бұрын
@@EikTuKaTu better question is what rights will be taken away?
@goose4165
Ай бұрын
@@EikTuKaTu abortion in a lot of states ever since the safeguard got overturned
@jenniferc.8866
Ай бұрын
Trump's vice presidential candidate Vance said women shouldn't be able to get divorced even if they are being abused! That is terrifying! He hates women! You can look it up online because he said it on video! How can any woman vote for that? How can any man who actually loves a woman vote for that?@IFYOUWANTITGOGETIT
@GIONELLIO
Ай бұрын
The hatred towards him shows how gullible Americans are.
@CosmicApe
Ай бұрын
Literally people assuming he's biased because he's talking objective measures of his predictive modeling that are leaning Biden. Any shred of an idea that Trump won't be reelected has his supporters up in arms. Can't wait to hear another year of "stolen election" BS again...
@charlottjohnson5271
Ай бұрын
What do you mean
@troublewithweebles
Ай бұрын
I like him and I'm an American. Been trying to get folks to listen to him for a while now.
@thomasschultz1614
Ай бұрын
@@GIONELLIO you can hear right?
@christopherl4249
Ай бұрын
Gullible? Did you buy Lichtman's claim that polls were no good, or did you actually check the history to see if he was correct? The people who think this guy is some sort of sage need to look at the numbers. Lictman kept repeating that polls are no good. If David Lin (and his audience) had done their homework and checked all the elections from 1980 to 2020 they would have seen that the presidential elections August polls (that is when Lichtman comes out with his final call) were correct 9 times out of 11 (I counted 2000 as wrong but if you do not want to then the polls were correct 10/11); Lichtman was correct 9 times out of 10. So Litchman was at best 10% better than the (aggregate) polls. Lichtman called 2016 right when the aggregate polls did not and that is the only difference between Lichtman and the polls. From this data who would say that polls are no good and Litchman is a wizard? The source for the August polls data is Wikipedia (Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections). Look it up.
@steved0123
Ай бұрын
I got several 10% price increases in June and zero price decreases in June.
@sthompson8184
Ай бұрын
Try going to Turkey inflation is over 83%
@-PurpleDiamond-
Ай бұрын
Corporate greed
@fatyak7661
Ай бұрын
I’m not even an American and this bloke was so politically biased I had to stop watching.
@artimeis
Ай бұрын
He uses a fix criteria and does not change from it, not biased.
@justinluc2572
Ай бұрын
We live in a world where stating facts is considered a bias. 🙄 Oi oi oi stay within your own country's politics.
@octoman511
Ай бұрын
Why dont you worry about your own country
@TheAutumnNetwork
Ай бұрын
How is he biased? He literally called Trump back in 2016 when EVERYONE had Hillary as the winner, and explained his rubic and standards clearly. Come off of it.
@fatyak7661
Ай бұрын
Wow. Better not have an opinion or people get triggered.
@GenZ99-p7u
Ай бұрын
Would Afghanistan and Gas Prices turn foreign policy and Economic success against Biden?
@arjansahota4911
Ай бұрын
@@GenZ99-p7u no, I recommend reading the 13 keys wiki page for more information.
@WickedFelina
Ай бұрын
The fix is in. This guy predicted Trump would be impeached and should be BEFORE he was even elected. That shows bias and information he shouldn't know by any "scientific" bs key.
@fatumataholloway4897
Ай бұрын
We love this guy,” Trump said of Hannity. “He says, ‘You’re not going to be a dictator, are you?’ I said: ‘No, no, no, other than day one. We’re closing the border, and we’re drilling, drilling, drilling. After that, I’m not a dictator.’”
@andrewwickham4642
Ай бұрын
@@fatumataholloway4897 After Weekend at Joes disaster 4 years, USA are lucky to have a county… What an absolute cluster F President Joe and his giggle box side kick… Bring on Trump 2024 . The world will be a safer place as will 🇺🇸
@JohnAdams-vd5dc
Ай бұрын
@@andrewwickham4642 Yes because January 6th was real safe for the nation.
@leopoz
3 күн бұрын
@JohnAdams-vd5dc Bro, we are literally about to have WWIII! Among other horrible things. And you're worried about what is basically a small riot where one person died! Wake up out of your bubble that the government financed media has put you in.
@user-gp4xk3qi9j
Ай бұрын
The jobs gained were government jobs
@robertbogie9534
Күн бұрын
More MAGA BULL SHIT from the ECHO CHAMBER Scooter 😂
@LoisBarth
Ай бұрын
He gives me hope and he's so brilliant and measured.
@behindthen0thing
Ай бұрын
Your riden with biden?
@cincin123
Ай бұрын
Please lord I hope Biden stays in the race - never look a gift horse in the mouth
@Repdem
Ай бұрын
@@carolina92861 Clooney is a clown. Probably getting blackmailed.
@rebeccaLV
Ай бұрын
David Lin has been the best interviewer of Allan Lichtman and his theory of 13 Keys to the Whitehouse... period
@christopherl4249
Ай бұрын
Agreed. David Lin did what he was supposed to do as an interviewer - challenge Lictman. Lichtman should have welcomed these challenges as a chance to provide more proof; instead he was condescending. I watched the interview and while the key methodology all by itself is not biased you can still enter biased data. As a trader I use trading models all the time and have seen models with perfect success rates fail. How does this happen? One possibility is to enter garbage data. Here is an example: At one point Lichtman claimed Biden created more jobs than any other president in history. He seemed to forget that people were laid off due to Covid and many of these jobs were people returning to suspended jobs, not a creation of new jobs. It is a perfect example of how people use statistics to lie. If Lichtman had any humility he might consider that the pandemic was a one off event that his models never had to handle. Here again I saw many trading models (some with 20/20 successes) with better accuracy than Lictman’s (9/10) model falter after an unprecedented event.
@rachelsherman105
Ай бұрын
Lichtman has a 100% track record. Pay attention to him!!!
@mzk123ify
Ай бұрын
You are aware of the 50/50 ods right? Ive guessed them toi does that make ne special?
@girloninternet1188
Ай бұрын
90%
@lorraineheck6702
Ай бұрын
He, absolutely said “ dictator”
@TinyLuvsBostons
20 күн бұрын
So, Allan is a progressive? I’ll pass on this even if his predictions have been consistently correct
@grahamkelsey8687
Ай бұрын
As an unbiased Aussie observer this guy is so politically biased he’s not worth listening too……
@pilotguy5075
Ай бұрын
to
@santoshrathod123
Ай бұрын
But he's been correct in the past including 2016 when he predicted Trump... so he is worth listening to.
@surfer-lc3nz
Ай бұрын
As an Aussie observer, I love Allan Lichtman, because all of his predictions have been correct. Where is your electoral prediction track record, mate?
@surfer-lc3nz
Ай бұрын
@@santoshrathod123 Exactly, at a time when ALL the "prevailing wisdom" contradicted his prediction, it's amazing that he could uniquely decipher the writing on the wall, while others could not.
@grahamkelsey8687
Ай бұрын
@@HyperspaceHoliday it’s called Sportsbet ;)
@RealJoshBinder
Ай бұрын
Yes he's obviously biased, but his keys have an impressive track record. Trump might have broken him though
@AdventureTrust
Ай бұрын
He hasn't made a prediction yet. He may predict Trump. If the Dem Convention goes divisive, if Biden adds fuel to the conflict in Israel ... there are still if's to his predictive model.
@PrincessGold1
Ай бұрын
His method works like Math. 2+2 = 4. He can still have his own personal preference and he can still vote for whoever he wants. You know, it's called freedom.
@RealJoshBinder
Ай бұрын
@PrincessGold1 I agree. It's still possible for personal bias to influence qualitative analysis. The best forecasters are the best at reducing this bias. TDS is a very real phenomenon 2024
@vincentvalentine9417
Ай бұрын
How did trump break him
@Coffeepanda294
Ай бұрын
Where do you see obvious bias? Because he says something you don't want to hear? He also predicted the GOP would win in 2016. But I just noticed you use "TDS" unironically, so I guess you aren't arguing in good faith.
@CliftonHicksbanjo
Ай бұрын
I'm 40 and voted for Obama twice. Trump is the first republican candidate I've ever voted for (in 2020) and I'll be voting for him again. 🤔🇺🇲
@theodorejay1046
Ай бұрын
Basically you have no political sense 🙄
@brianthai8018
Ай бұрын
You should never put this “professor” back on your show again
@nickverse3463
Ай бұрын
truth hurts i know
@frv6610
Ай бұрын
Why does David repeatedly call him professor, is it sarcastically?
@Bigredbulldog401
Ай бұрын
Thank you
@markogeo7222
Ай бұрын
What truth? His keys his rules? 😂@P.90.603
@markogeo7222
Ай бұрын
100% 👏
@byronrios4005
Ай бұрын
This man says polls have absolutely no worth but if you listen carefully that’s all he is using to explain is the polls .
@frankbeck3044
Ай бұрын
OOPS WRONG Professor forgets to bring up that they brought this whole case up on a charge that was expired under the statute of limitations and the judge withheld the crime from the jury.
@vijjreddy
Ай бұрын
HOW CAN TRUMP OR ANY ONE FOR THAT MATTER ERASE INDEPENDENT PRESS - WHEN WE DON'T HAVE IT IN THE FIRST PLACE?
@istvanmagi473
Ай бұрын
Are you sure you know what "independent" means?
@PrincessGold1
Ай бұрын
@vijjready, you misunderstand. Go to North Korea, and you'll find all news and all broadcasts in all media is only what Kim Jong Un wants, truth reality, facts not necessary. It happened in Russia when it was locked up and there was no other source but the dictatorial communist party. In countries where there are Dictators journalistscare jailed or killed if they don't say only what they're told to say.
@charlottjohnson5271
Ай бұрын
@@istvanmagi473a king. Can
@kevingreywolf6003
Ай бұрын
If instead of Biden, we will see about that!
@sharkboi7555
Ай бұрын
This man couldn't even hide his bias for ten minutes. Didn't even bother watching the rest of the video. Never heard of him before and won't remember him come tomorrow.
@surfer-lc3nz
Ай бұрын
Well, in 2016, he predicted a Trump victory, however, he did not support Trump. His predictions are not based on whom he would like to win - they are based on the candidates' contest for the Keys. Donald Trump, as things currently stand, is losing the 2024 Keys to the White House.
@sharkboi7555
Ай бұрын
@@surfer-lc3nz He is just another hack pretending to have a crystal ball, when he is really the monkey writing Shakespeare.
@FeelingPeculiar
Ай бұрын
@surfer-lc3nz This statement is so absurd it's not even funny.
@user-hn8br6cu3u
Ай бұрын
If he was Republican, would that be ok with you?,😂😂😂
@sharkboi7555
Ай бұрын
@@user-hn8br6cu3u Nope, my comments would be the same. I also would never be so cringey as to correct my interview host's introduction.
@hearnbrowne4404
Ай бұрын
He wont make a prediction until after the Democratic Convention in August. But keys are leaning towards Biden.
@andrewthacker114
Ай бұрын
Media never calls out Trump. Must be scared of him.
@ekneff9439
Ай бұрын
All of the MSM are owned by Trump Donors. The owners are Trump supporters, even MSNBC. They are trying to help Trump.
@maharajamac
Ай бұрын
you don't listen good do you
@marioisawesome8218
Ай бұрын
LOL. i have seen countless articles painting trump as the villian non-stop.
@andrewthacker114
Ай бұрын
@@maharajamac well I looked at the debate, and moderators never questioned Trumps constant lies once, so yes I listen, that’s how I know.
@momwithaplan1287
Ай бұрын
@@andrewthacker114 Umm… well cuz HUGE “strong man” diaper baby, “cried” and said, he wouldn’t allow the debate to happen, IF he was FACT checked. Hmm… Geez I wonder why. Duh! And CNN only cared more about their RATINGS and MONEY, than us 🇺🇸 needing to hear from the 2 candidates on their views, policies, and future for 🇺🇸! But NOPE, It was a 90 min LYING fest, from Drumpf. NOT a debate. Biden better not do another debate, with the lying diaper baby. Cuz it does nothing for 🇺🇸. It only gives Drumpf FREE airtime to LIE his butt off. And HE already has his rallies for that. 😡
@deborahbrebner1237
Ай бұрын
Wow he’s a liberal
@xiomaraebanks4497
8 күн бұрын
So?
@robertbogie9534
Күн бұрын
We all are to a certain degree Scooter😊
@denishannan1408
Ай бұрын
Great , educated ,wise commentator.
@EM-od6gu
29 күн бұрын
In my opinion His “keys” are no longer valid because times have changed. His analysis was based on a pattern that no longer exists. Compare todays political climate now vs pre-covid and all the way to let’s say Carter. Things are different. People are angry and more informed. The Alt media has sky rocketed while main media going downhill. There is an awakening today that was non existent 10-20-30 years ago. History goes through waxes and wanes and me thinks so should his analysis be updated for current trends.
@paulthemason9118
Ай бұрын
he said ,, i will be a dictator for 1 day .........only to close the border.......... but everyone keep saying he said he would be a dictator starting on day 1. just sayimg , i saw the interview.
@Nancy68fromNJ
Ай бұрын
They purposely misunderstand.
@charlottjohnson5271
Ай бұрын
Doesn't matter Joes going to be PRESIDENT
@andrewwickham4642
Ай бұрын
In your liberal wet dream!!
@tinasimkins8006
Ай бұрын
I hope so. He has my vote again if he stays in the race. The constant criticism must be hard to take. I wouldn't be surprised if he does quit the race, but I hope he stays in and proves them all wrong.
@SherrieSchubert-fm4ki
Ай бұрын
Joe Biden will win! We must not allow the media to sway the American vote!
@lindaroberts6469
Ай бұрын
lol😂😂😂😂😂
@SIoyvenheaven1T800m101
Ай бұрын
@@tinasimkins8006Please stay away from any and all voting booths.
@lovepet4565
Ай бұрын
Alan L is s brilliant historian History will always repeat itself
@juanitaviala
Ай бұрын
i appreciate his genius
@Resmith18SR
Ай бұрын
Sounds like he's saying or coming close to saying his model is infallible. That's not scientific and science only can give probabilities. His model has never been wrong? Can't certain Black Swan events like a major war or an attempt on a Presidential candidate like yesterday have a big effect on the outcome of a Presidential election?
@PrincessGold1
Ай бұрын
He explained why that wasn't so in the interview.
@Resmith18SR
Ай бұрын
@@PrincessGold1 Why what wasn't so?
@peterrobinson1041
Ай бұрын
sure could but election is r months out
@PrincessGold1
Ай бұрын
Why the analysis tool he calls The 13 Keys" aren't affected by events like that. I was thinking the same, that it might have affected the outcome but now I understand why it won't.
@Resmith18SR
Ай бұрын
@@PrincessGold1 That's why you're a Princess.
@tomcat8662
Ай бұрын
Well respected poll: Washington Post\ABC 😂
@dathoodieguy7121
Ай бұрын
Man, the algorithm was not fair to you on this video. The rest of the videos are like 40-50K and this one 7k 7hrs
@jaylinn416
Ай бұрын
Independent press?? LOL. This guy is crazy.
@luminozero
Ай бұрын
But he was smart when he predicted Trump's win in 2016, right?
@jaylinn416
Ай бұрын
@@luminozero Don;t know. Did he???
@jimjones3017
Ай бұрын
@@jaylinn416he did. When all polls predicted Hillary by a landslide, he was the only one who called a Trump presidency.
But this guy nos what he talking about and Trump so hated somebody tried to get him at his own rally and I hope this guy will come back on even if you so rude to him cause its a breth of fresh air to have somebody unbiased on here
@busstop1100
Ай бұрын
Trump is the most project 2025 Trump must not win on this all depends
@Mcarthywasright
Ай бұрын
Please write coherent sentences next time
@lebobshark
Ай бұрын
Broken bot
@maharajamac
Ай бұрын
what? lol
@Hcai75
Ай бұрын
Ok, Yoda
@roadmound429
Ай бұрын
Watch out for some Russian Trolls that can not write well in English. It’s part of the Russian Propaganda Machine. God Bless America 🇺🇸 Amen 🙏
@jordanbrandon81
Ай бұрын
It's always nice to see the method to the idea I love this mans desciption and way he establishes the rules You must all vote though. Democracy can't prevail if people get comfortable and don't vote. 'My vote won't matter' is pointless. It means more than you can know So jump in and vote. Here's hoping his prediction remains the same and we can see 4 more years
@theodorejay1046
Ай бұрын
Well the "keys" kind of remain the same now that Kamala has stepped forward 🤔
@BatmanBoss
Ай бұрын
Thanks
@joanditonto5534
Ай бұрын
BIDEN/HARRIS all the way!
@mysterygirl5291
Ай бұрын
I was glad to see the professor on your show! I’m thankful for his analysis! So refreshing compared to the usual media pundits!!!
@borsennews9261
Ай бұрын
He is repeating all the time. No arguments... What a mess
@Jane-il5hw
Ай бұрын
I love this guy!!
@macnicolson5452
Ай бұрын
Am not a Trump supporter but this guy is going to get this one wrong due to his bias.
@thomasd2444
Ай бұрын
LOL - In your biased opinion
@christopherl4249
Ай бұрын
Agreed on both of your points - not a voter for Trump, this guy is blinded by his own bias. I watched the interview and can say some of the keys are subjective and when you are as biased against Trump as this guy is you can score the subjective keys incorrectly. As a trader I use trading models all the time and appreciate that Lictman uses one (with a 9 out of 10 success rate). However, even a proven model can fail if you enter garbage data. Here is an example: At one point Lichtman claimed Biden created more jobs than any other president in history. He seemed to forget that people were laid off due to Covid and many of these jobs were people returning to suspended jobs, not a creation of new jobs. It is a perfect example of how people use statistics to lie. If Lichtman had any humility he might consider that the pandemic was a one off event that his models never had to handle. Here again I saw many trading models (some with 20/20 successes) with better accuracy than Lictman’s (9/10) model falter after an unprecedented event. Finally, Lichtman and some of his fans on this site seem to take issue with David Lin challenging him. This is what you are suppose to do if applying the “scientific method”. Lichtman should have welcomed these challenges as a chance to provide more proof; instead he was condescending. The people who think this guy is some sort of sage need to look at the numbers. Lictman kept repeating that polls are no good. If David Lin (and his audience) had done their homework and checked all the elections from 1980 to 2020 they would have seen that the presidential elections August polls (that is when Lichtman comes out with his final call) were correct 9 times out of 11 (I counted 2000 as wrong but if you do not want to then the polls were correct 10/11); Lichtman was correct 9 times out of 10. So Litchman was at best 10% better than the (aggregate) polls. Lichtman called 2016 right when the aggregate polls did not and that is the only difference between Lichtman and the polls. From this data who would say that polls are no good and Litchman is a wizard? The source for the August polls data is Wikipedia (Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections). Look it up.
@macnicolson5452
Ай бұрын
@@christopherl4249 Thank you for your detailed and insightful analysis. Yes, I was quite aghast at the level of bias he was showing and my response was more a gut response........'this is not adding up'
@Hellodali78
Ай бұрын
Thanks for sharing this! Great to see it, been searching for his updates :)
@user-hn4oi7yz1h
Ай бұрын
I'm going with Joe! Biden/Harris 2024!
@BatmanBoss
Ай бұрын
This guy has liberal bias
@Miguel_Cam
Ай бұрын
but he has been accurate for 40 years, so what,
@surfer-lc3nz
Ай бұрын
His Keys have no bias. He predicted Trump in 2016, despite not supporting him, then, he predicted Trump's loss in 2020. Correct on both occasions. So, what is your issue?
@Cevap123
Ай бұрын
Reality has a liberal bias I guess 😂 must sucks for conservatives
@crism2176
Ай бұрын
He's never hid the fact that he's a Democrat but he's always stated that his views don't affect his predictions because they're based on fixed criteria hence why he predicted trumps win in 2016
@jacobnapkins1155
Ай бұрын
They said the same thing when he predicted trump
@1000Strom
Ай бұрын
This guy increasingly lost credibility throughout the interview.
@crism2176
Ай бұрын
Lol not really considering his track record of being correct. He's a Democrat but his views don't affect his predictions because they're based on fixed criteria hence why he predicted 2016 for trump
@PrincessGold1
Ай бұрын
No, he didn't. He remained consistent all the way thtough. His criteris are based on the entire history of Presidential elections ie on nearly 200 yrs of historical fact.
@Coffeepanda294
Ай бұрын
Why, because he said things you didn't want to hear?
@charlottjohnson5271
Ай бұрын
You are hilarious. Go joe
@feitankung
Ай бұрын
DAVID LIN ASKS SOME GOOD QUESTIONS...GREAT INTERVIEW!!
@Grace-xq7em
Ай бұрын
I have seen somewhere it says in our Constitution that a Felon cannot be elected to sit in our Great White House!????? Why hasn't someone get on this!
@Doowop1956
Ай бұрын
No, it doesn't. Maybe everyone should support Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) for the White House. He's a smart guy and has the perfect name! Lol.
@geo3141
Ай бұрын
Because it doesn't say it in the Constitution... Read it
@dscottperry
Ай бұрын
Trump is not a damn felon... you wish it were true, but anyone of any intellect knows what the trump trials were all about... that is why it doesn't phase the public at all... they all see the corruption!
@MrGreen-ci2mm
Ай бұрын
WHAT'S THE FUCKING ANSWER ? SOMEONE MENTION THE WINNER FFS UPDATE: Lichtman still hasn’t decided yet.
@alinelajoie8920
Ай бұрын
😂
@MrGreen-ci2mm
Ай бұрын
@@alinelajoie8920 UPDATE: he still didn’t decide yet 🤦♂️
@deathfliez627
Ай бұрын
did you even watch the video lmao
@MrGreen-ci2mm
Ай бұрын
@@deathfliez627 did you even read my comment lmao
@Mcarthywasright
Ай бұрын
What a blow hard waste of time. Blah blah, buy my book, something something keys lol
@MrDamon888
Ай бұрын
Wow! Dude is not bias at all 🤣
@surfer-lc3nz
Ай бұрын
You mean "biased".
@PrincessGold1
Ай бұрын
Everyone's biased for their own beliefs. That's his work though, which is analysis, which is the world's most accurate method of predicting who will win.
@jacobnapkins1155
Ай бұрын
He predicted trump in 2016 they said the same thing then
@juliiseeyou
Ай бұрын
He's biased because he's educated? He predicted Trump's win. But everyone reading knows you aren't going to respond. Living in your own little fantasy land.
@Coffeepanda294
Ай бұрын
Translation: "I don't like what this guy is saying so I'll call him biased and throw out a laughing emoji so I won't have to take in what he's saying". Cope harder.
@pongod5751
Ай бұрын
I appreciate the disclaimer at the beginning
@joelpowell4459
Ай бұрын
Allan Spectacular!!!
@user-fb3zz2yf3k
Ай бұрын
This guy talks about Trump lying, while he sat here the whole time lying.
@yMMahmood0990
Ай бұрын
cope harder my dude
@surfer-lc3nz
Ай бұрын
He didn't lie.
@AdventureTrust
Ай бұрын
can you enumerate the lies to support your position on the topic you brought up?
@peterrobinson1041
Ай бұрын
define lieng
@Zummbot
Ай бұрын
@@user-fb3zz2yf3k Tell us one lie the professor told. Literally he did not lie once this entire interview.
@NotMe-wh5vb
Ай бұрын
The Professor comes across a tad bit arrogant. I hope his 13 keys are wrong for this election so that maybe he might be a little more humbler in the future. The 13 keys were wrong in 2000, so it is possible they could be wrong in 2024.
@sethe.2468
Ай бұрын
Arrogant? More like confident.
@christopherl4249
Ай бұрын
The people who think this guy is some sort of sage need to look at the numbers. Lictman kept repeating that polls are no good. If David Lin (and his audience) had done their homework and checked all the elections from 1980 to 2020 they would have seen that the presidential elections August polls (that is when Lichtman comes out with his final call) were correct 9 times out of 11 (I counted 2000 as wrong but if you do not want to then the polls were correct 10/11); Lichtman was correct 9 times out of 10. So Litchman was at best 10% better than the (aggregate) polls. Lichtman called 2016 right when the aggregate polls did not, and that is the only difference between Lichtman and the polls. From this data who would say that polls are no good and Litchman is a wizard? The source for the August polls data is Wikipedia (Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections). Look it up.
@AjaySingh-mw7sy
Ай бұрын
"Did he use the word dictator?" Where've you been, Lin?
@user-by6gv9fl6h
Ай бұрын
I am deeply concerned with drama of dems. They will change nominee again
@user-bc9tp6tu4b
Ай бұрын
Did he just say Biden won in the debate
@leroyjones6170
Ай бұрын
His TDS told him so. And his tv probably
@juliiseeyou
Ай бұрын
@@leroyjones6170 You can't "win" a debate--nor even participate in it--when you DEMAND there not be a fact-checker present and then lie every single sentence. Cope that people realize Biden won because he wasn't hot-air.
@jh7456
Ай бұрын
Biden did win the debate.
@ScottLee-xw8vm
Ай бұрын
@@jh7456 He didn't but okay.
@andrewwickham4642
Ай бұрын
😂😂😂 And that’s why he is a loop
@Rsoj01
Ай бұрын
Good Job keeping the Interview on topic.
@CarlosSanchez-et8qm
Ай бұрын
Great content. Thank you
@VoteBlueKeepDemocracy
Ай бұрын
Allan does the fact that Trump might be considered an incumbent once removed change your prediction?
@sethe.2468
Ай бұрын
The keys would still be in bidens favor
@kitzwilly
Ай бұрын
Interesting point
@nmk-s
Ай бұрын
Alan has addressed this question on his site, and he says it won't change the prediction.
@Nancy68fromNJ
Ай бұрын
@@sethe.2468unless Biden’s a no go
@keithclunk3125
Ай бұрын
This guy doesn't just stink of bias, he reeks of it. I couldn't continue beyond 10 minutes, that was more than enough. Please do not invite him back. Ever!
@peterrobinson1041
Ай бұрын
your perogative
@IFYOUWANTITGOGETIT
Ай бұрын
😂 all the Trumpers living in their bubbles 🫧
@alinelajoie8920
Ай бұрын
😂
@rolijuliano4472
Ай бұрын
CBS and CNN has purchased by two right wing oligarchies (John C.Malone and Son of Larry Elison ) .They are now biased right-wing propaganda like Fox News.
@marioisawesome8218
Ай бұрын
do you have self awareness? how are you so sure you're not living in a bubble yourself?
@IFYOUWANTITGOGETIT
Ай бұрын
@@marioisawesome8218 lol because I don’t want to be emotionally and ideologically exploited!! I regularly expose myself to diverse perspectives and engage in open, respectful dialogue with people who hold different viewpoints. I also make it a point to seek out and critically evaluate a range of information sources to ensure I have a well-rounded understanding of various issues.
@marioisawesome8218
Ай бұрын
@IFYOUWANTITGOGETIT if you practice what you preach then it is quite sad to see you generalize a group in the same way the mainstream media does.
@jjslyde
Ай бұрын
The interviewer is not qualified for this interview. Full Stop.
@billythekidneon9002
Ай бұрын
It is maddening how much attention and time the media gives to Trump. If they would have ignored him since he lies so much, it would have helped squelch him out.
@pthomas4511
Ай бұрын
🤣😂🤣😂🤣
@JoeWilly69
Ай бұрын
Bogus law fare
@cameronvaughan7576
Ай бұрын
This guys TDS is apparent
@surfer-lc3nz
Ай бұрын
You wouldn't have said that he had TDS in 2016 when he predicted Trump's win.
@cameronvaughan7576
Ай бұрын
@@surfer-lc3nz he’s predicting his win here and still has TDS lmfao
@econhelp583
Ай бұрын
This guy knows what he is talking about. Absolutely right on the mark and the best take on the situation. Great interview!
@emelitadimaguila4123
Ай бұрын
BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN AND ONLY BIDEN ❤❤❤❤❤
@thegingershow9676
Ай бұрын
Wikipedia just added the retrospective predictions, 1876 and 1888 were predicted wrong too. Still a 92-93% track record whereas polls are like 60%
@arjansahota4911
Ай бұрын
Tbf 1876 should have gone to the Dems and 2000 as well. Still, an 97.5% accuracy rate is pretty good, almost like weather forecasting. He hasn’t been afraid to be ballsy as well. He predicted Reagan in May 1982, Bush in April 2003, Bush in May 1988, and Obama in July 2010.
@christopherl4249
Ай бұрын
If you compare the 1980s to current which is more appropriate because Lichtman was not predicting anything before 1980 and (over time with technology and experience polls accuracy did improve) he is only a little better than the polls. From 1980 to 2020 they would have seen that the presidential elections August polls (that is when Lichtman comes out with his final call) were correct 9 times out of 11 (I counted 2000 as wrong but if you do not want to then the polls were correct 10/11); Lichtman was correct 9 times out of 10. So Litchman was at best 10% better than the (aggregate) polls. Lichtman called 2016 right when the aggregate polls did not, and that is the only difference between Lichtman and the polls. From this data who would say that polls are no good and Litchman is a wizard? The source for the August polls data is Wikipedia (Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections). Look it up.
@stevepotts5931
Ай бұрын
Love the channel but had to turn this episode off because of guest. You could hear the hate in the guests voice.
@r.h.lincoln9889
Ай бұрын
He predicted Trump win in 2016. I think he has just been agitated lately with everyone criticizing his system which he has been right about for 10 elections straight
@BruceEdmiston
Ай бұрын
He will not announce winner until LATE August. Dems gave not decided who they are going to nominate yet you sill comnenters!.. think about it before yoy criticize.
@25Soupy
Ай бұрын
As an unbiased Canadian watching from the outside, you can't tell at all that this guy is a Democrat (sarcasm). Trump is going to "snuff out" the independent press? The independent press is the only press that isn't attacking Trump every second of the day.
@tomcat8662
Ай бұрын
His definition of the “independent press” is different than what the rest of us consider independent
@garysaint-laurent6524
Ай бұрын
Yes - and "this Democrat" picked Trump to win in 2016 when Hillary was up in all the polls - and he took heat from Democrats big time. He has no bias. He just uses the keys and predicts. Maybe you should learn more about his system and listen to him carefully. He is the one voice of reason amidst all the hysteria.
@FeelingPeculiar
Ай бұрын
@@garysaint-laurent6524He predicted Trump in 2016? SO WHAT, so did I, lol. On August he will be picking Trump for 2024. Trump is up in every single swing state, and may even win NJ, NH, and NM. Trump may win 45 states...
@jacobnapkins1155
Ай бұрын
@@FeelingPeculiaryes but you don't have a track record going back to the 80s
@garysaint-laurent6524
Ай бұрын
@@FeelingPeculiar That may or may not be the case. Right now, using Allan's keys, it is very problematic for Trump to win. I'm guessing you're not old enough to remember when Dukakis led Bush by 17 points in June. Bush won by 8. Don't count your chickens quite yet. Stay humble.
@tedjackson8440
Ай бұрын
Prices went down? He doesn’t do his own shopping.
@PrincessGold1
Ай бұрын
Economists said prices havevgone down.
@loydamedina235
Ай бұрын
He is right. I think You live in another world😮
@cryptoricardo
Ай бұрын
To all those in the comment crying about Allan's bias even though he is pointing out facts: truth hurts doesn't it.
@ronaldbeasley3755
Ай бұрын
He can’t even follow his own keys. How much did the DNC pay him to lie for them?
@tonidupree4116
Ай бұрын
1. I don’t understand why the Biden Administration’s hiding Biden’s remarkable cognitive decline isn’t a scandal. 2. He seems biased to me and comes across as very pro-Biden. 3. He also seems conceited. 4. I hope Trump wins and proves him wrong.
@flicmcfly1536
Ай бұрын
I'm more amazed that this guy has the same haircut I did when I was a high school freshman in 1989....
@leroyjones6170
Ай бұрын
It’s a big wig
@andrewwickham4642
Ай бұрын
That’s the nicest thing you could say 😂 Weirdo for sure. Time warp warier
@alinelajoie8920
Ай бұрын
😂
@maxhung69
Ай бұрын
that's exactly my theory why the media favors trump - trump is better for their bottom line
@nmk-s
Ай бұрын
Trump secretly lives the media, as well. He loves tracking ratings! 🙄
@jtdennis1919
Ай бұрын
That was definitely an extraordinary interview! The part i loved the most is when you let him answer and not interrupt! So many interviewers make that mistake and interrupt train of thought.! I'M so impressed because I see your a young man.And if you keep your style with you, You're going to go amazingly far!
@P4DR
Ай бұрын
29:58 “Remember the keys go back to 1860…”
@pamdemic7848
Ай бұрын
:/ They cntrl the vo ting mchns. Why would he drop out? Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything. Joseph Stalin
@PrincessGold1
Ай бұрын
Stalin was talking about what he did and what Putin does today follows that as well. It is not ehat happens in the USA no matter how many times Trump lies about it.
@Zummbot
Ай бұрын
@@pamdemic7848 Why didn’t Trump control the voting machines when he was President? 🤔 Strange even when he’s the most powerful person in the world he’s somehow still the victim.
@Coffeepanda294
Ай бұрын
I know this guy could technically just have gotten lucky over and over -- with so many people casting predictions, eventually someone comes along who gets 10 out of 10 correct -- but his reasoning seems sound enough and I welcome any bit of hope I can get now.
@arjansahota4911
Ай бұрын
The odds of someone getting 10/10 coin flips correctly are 1/1024 or 0.1%. So either he’s really lucky or this model has something. Even if you are pessimistic about the model since it technically got 1876, 1888, and 2000 wrong, it being 38/41 or 92.6% correct is still pretty good. Better than pollsters that for sure lol.
@amiegene6805
Ай бұрын
@@arjansahota4911So what’s his 2024 prediction?
@arjansahota4911
Ай бұрын
@@amiegene6805 he hasn’t decided yet, leans Biden.
@melissasweeting-percentie6679
Ай бұрын
Great work
@lindajcarroll5176
29 күн бұрын
He did not predict 2000 or 2016 correctly. He excuses those by saying the wrong man won. Whaaaa??? So no matter what he predicts he claims to be correct.
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