Jamie pulls that up faster than he hands over a piece of paper...
@xaviergough9359
2 ай бұрын
Oh he Googles real good, guys. Pathetic. Kurzweil is a polymath.
@marcusash7
2 ай бұрын
@@xaviergough9359It’s always an Xavier lmao. Jamie does his job well, allow him.
@dominiquedorsey4197
2 ай бұрын
hes trained well
@akhilsharma83
2 ай бұрын
Jamie is an AGI all this time we didn’t know.
@andrewferguson8032
2 ай бұрын
Someone please tell him about the Interweb
@scottwitham4255
2 ай бұрын
Joe: Asks a question This guy: "Exponential growth"
@UnknownUser-fe5zu
2 ай бұрын
😂
@mas-udal-hassan9277
2 ай бұрын
[The secular West’s double standards are glaringly evident from how they deal with “irrationality”. When this so-called irrationality is linked with religion it’s a problem. However, when it comes to things like “gender fluidity” it’s completely fine. Another example that can be mentioned is how the “clairvoyant” Edgar Cayce was extremely popular during the early 20th century. And it’s the same story when it comes to aliens. The secular West, unable to fight its innate tendency to believe in the ghayb, proposes the likely existence of a non-human species that could communicate with our world - the same way Muslims believe in the jinn Of course, all of this is done in the name of their own religion: science. They even have their own priests in the form of astrobiologists, etc. This belief of theirs is of the same nature as ours. Even if they try and add some pseudo-empiricist spice: there may be tangible elements pointing towards the existence of aliens. They fail to grasp how we, too, say there are “tangible elements” regarding the influences of the jinn within our world.]@@UnknownUser-fe5zu
@chriscollins4539
2 ай бұрын
I was thinking this through the entire clip lol
@caleb7475
2 ай бұрын
J:So Elon said you can't do that Guest: Well he's not taking into account exponential growth
@phoenixmodellingphotography
2 ай бұрын
"Oh my! You're sooooo big for me Mr Kurzweil teehee!" Ray Kurzweil: *"Exponential growth"*
@Redbird1504
2 ай бұрын
"I wasn't aware" - Joe Rogan calling bullshit
@ollybreh95
2 ай бұрын
You think Rogan has the ability to call bullshit on Ray Kurzweil? You obviously don’t know who Ray is…
@4thorder
2 ай бұрын
@@ollybreh95 Agreed. I watched the whole interview and half the interview was useless. Don't get me wrong, I like Joe, but he didn't interview him, he spoke at him. Ray has a high level of accuracy in his predictions and is very intelligent person.
@RichOffKs
2 ай бұрын
“All renewable in 10 years? 🤔🤔🤔”
@aztekwarrior23
2 ай бұрын
You have more faith In a comedian?! 😂.. As Joe says to all his followers
@benkrauz725
2 ай бұрын
@@ollybreh95yeah he's the dumbest genius I've ever seen
@richardbroadway7190
2 ай бұрын
My skepticism is rising exponentially
@benbochenek4955
2 ай бұрын
Hell yeah. This was painful but I didn’t want to miss it.
@GrumpDog
2 ай бұрын
So you didn't understand the seriousness of the implications? And the proof that it's happening with AI right now?
@93_til
2 ай бұрын
hahahahah 10000000%
@DSpartantv
2 ай бұрын
Lmao...mine too
@GeoffBournes
2 ай бұрын
Along with your fear.
@Imdirtyydan
2 ай бұрын
What I gathered … It’s growing exponentially, it’s all growing exponentially, exponentially.
@phnix6242
2 ай бұрын
Until its not anymore……. We had people on who explained transistors cant fet much smaller becsuse we are in sub-cellular scale Some stuff is just a few atoms wide on COUs Theres a limit And we being totally solar powered in 10 years is total bullshit……
@CantTellYou
2 ай бұрын
lol what I gathered: everything ever will happen within the next decade because Kurzweil needs to be here to say “told ya so”
@DantesHQ
2 ай бұрын
I don't get why everyone is giving this guy a hard time. He is trying to drill expontentials into your head so you can start thinking in those terms, especially since everyone thinks AI is moving linearly. 5 years ago we had bare bones systems, but now we have models that exceed human performance in a lot of areas, do perfect image generation and even really good video gen with SORA. This progress will keep doubling and doubling until we are reach AGI which will be to improve itself and then this chapter of humanity closes.
@GrumpDog
2 ай бұрын
@@DantesHQ Kinda sad how that is flying over so many peoples' heads here.. This guy predicted the progress we're seeing now, nearly 30 years ago, progress that demands major changes to how our world works, and yet most people here are still acting like the people in the movie Idiocracy..
@alexi111
2 ай бұрын
🤣
@jeezumcrow1007
2 ай бұрын
I like how the futurist pulls out a printed out graph
@freddiecuffe4688
2 ай бұрын
Lmao I was thinking the same thing. Futurist didn’t even laminate the documents
@thanos879
2 ай бұрын
Right lol. A primitive sheet of paper. You would expect a futurist to be on the cutting edge of technology.
@NETBotic
2 ай бұрын
@@thanos879 Years ago I predicted that futurists would still use paper documents.
@inspectorcrud
2 ай бұрын
Yeah, he should have projected it onto Joe's face with a laser or something
@SaltyEntropy
2 ай бұрын
A futurist who writes books is pretty funny
@yingle6027
2 ай бұрын
Bruh I haven't even reached human level intelligence yet. 2029 a laptop is smarter than me. 😭
@Michael-hb3ip
2 ай бұрын
If your say "bruh" your opinion at that point DOESN'T MATTER LOL
@clrs6576
Ай бұрын
😂😂😂
@talkdatalk1002
Ай бұрын
the laptop is far smarter than you now as well as ur phone
@RaiBread.
Ай бұрын
No lol... @@talkdatalk1002
@marcusrosales3344
Ай бұрын
@talkdatalk1002 Your response is based off the same phenomenon when a cat attacks itself in the mirror. The cat thinks the reflection is real, but it just mirrors what the cat does. This is CURRENT AI! It is a reflection of us, very little real understanding. A laptop itself isn't "smart" btw...
@EricJacobusOfficial
2 ай бұрын
Ray's kid: I don't want 65 hamburgers Ray: you're not thinking exponentially
@swphittman215
Ай бұрын
😂😂😂😂😂😊
@jopo7996
2 ай бұрын
I think Joe is finding this hard to follow, because all he's thinking about is how sweet those suspenders would be with his little rascals hat.
@kotycassidy6955
2 ай бұрын
That made me laugh thanks😂
@UnknownUser-fe5zu
2 ай бұрын
Facts
@AndrewV1023
2 ай бұрын
Almost spit my coffe out 😂
@davidbelen7199
2 ай бұрын
Remember when Bill called his kangol hat a lil rascal hat. He's never worn it after that ...😂
@zillionfurball1451
2 ай бұрын
@@davidbelen7199I was about to say the same thing 😂
@thanos879
2 ай бұрын
I had to pause it at 8:00 and scroll to the comments to make sure everyone called bullsht after hearing that 😂
@dominick253
2 ай бұрын
Same!!!
@user-cg7dg7uv8f
2 ай бұрын
LOL Same here - At 8:09 I was like “I don’t know if I find this credible” and went to the comments. Glad to see most everyone else’s bullshit meters went off as well
@mrgobbleton
2 ай бұрын
😂 literally just did this
@tertiusgous8348
2 ай бұрын
😂 8 minutes seems to be the bull shit handling standard
@brushstroke3733
2 ай бұрын
I went there as soon as he started talking about solar power around 6:00. Glad to see Joe's listeners are a lot smarter than this quack.
@durandondemand
2 ай бұрын
Basic gist: It's growing exponentially. But are you? I'm still hopeful for those who are urgent in all things to maximize their potential, exponentially!
@derekstaroba
Ай бұрын
Ill remind you this is the same guy who said he hates humans and hopes robots reign Supreme. Cant blame him tbh
@Antwhitehead
2 ай бұрын
Joe: Can we pull it up online? Futurist: What’s online?
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
Even funnier: he "predicted" in the 90s that by 2009 digital documents will have fully replaced paper documents. He considers that prediction a success, despite still using paper documents in 2023/2024.
@Antwhitehead
2 ай бұрын
That's hilarious@@IAmTheRealBill
@clintonleonard5187
Ай бұрын
This futurist predicted the internet before "online" existed. Literally.
@Antwhitehead
Ай бұрын
@@clintonleonard5187 yet he looked at Joe like he has 3 heads when he asked him if they could pull up the information on the paper printout that he was handing across the table.
@welcometoreality437
Ай бұрын
@@Antwhitehead most likely because he was trying to advertise his book and posting information like that would undermine it.
@glorfification
2 ай бұрын
Once it has human level intelligence, it will just spend all its time on social media, trolling people and reading celebrity gossip.
@andrewferguson8032
2 ай бұрын
And playing video games
@jedi4049
Ай бұрын
simulates itself on drugs and alcohol
@clintonleonard5187
Ай бұрын
Human level intelligence - not exactly the same as being human. A computer wouldn't waste time trying to release dopamine. It doesn't produce dopamine.
@jeremy454
2 ай бұрын
He has the same problem AI has with not being able to say I don’t know
@honkytonkinson9787
2 ай бұрын
It’s like the cat in the box, until he knows he simultaneously knows and doesn’t know so exponential growth!
@hamzahhassan9861
2 ай бұрын
😂😂😂😂
@No_Limits_411
Ай бұрын
Cos it will be exponential...
@iovie
2 ай бұрын
Ray Kurzweil and his books are pretty legendary. He was the person who popularized the concept of the singularity to the mass public with his chilling explicit descriptions of what future technological milestones would look like and when they would occur which he wrote as if they were facts. He then single handedly defended his predictions throughout his life against the entire world community of critics and pessimists coming from all areas of science and the media. He is still standing today.
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
Ray liberally interprets obvious failures as successes. Anyone can throw out general claims and defend them, that isn't special. For example, he claimed in the '90s or early 2000s that by 2009 most kids would learn how to read from computers before going to school. He claimed that was an accurate prediction, despite it not even being in the same ballpark as true today. He claimed it was accurate based on a single paper that stated as much as 9% of kids entering kindergarten knew how to read. Note that: 1) 9% is not most 2) The paper did not say how they learned 3. There was no discussion on what trend may or may not exist Anyone claiming that was a successful prediction deserves truckloads of salt for other things they claim. When you dispense with his vague, obvious, or restated what someone else said or is doing "predictions" he has as abysmal of a record as any. And by obvious, I mean to experts. For example he "predicted" the fall of the USSR. However, that was a done deal for experts years before he said it - it was considered obvious and inevitable by the experts. Just because the common folk lacks the knowledge doesn't mean he is special for 'predicting' what the experts have already asserted is inevitable. Claiming in the 90s that computers will have cameras and replace the use of phones is another one. That was done on mainstream broadcast television in the 60s and predicted even back then. How about nanotech eliminating "most diseases" by the 2020s? So far not a single one has been. You're not going to exponentialize your way to that one in the next 5 years. I wouldn't call him a hack, though IMO "futurist" is largely a synonym for it. But he isn't actually good at objective, novel predictions on technology advancement, let alone social ones.
@TonyCecala
Ай бұрын
Truth. Taking his worldview will help you skate to where the puck will be. That he looks to be slowing down, or dresses funny, does not take away from his core insight that expands Moore’s Law backwards in time to an age before computers.
@dwaynelattimore819
2 ай бұрын
Man Kurzweil is getting old. Hope he lives to see the Singularity
@billj4525
Ай бұрын
He plans on living forever. He just said it on Lex Fridmans podcast like a year ago. He thinks he will.
@clintonleonard5187
Ай бұрын
He's been focused on living forever since the 90s. He eats a really strict diet and takes a regimine of supplements.
@Feedmezz
2 ай бұрын
His predictions are partly based on the fact that he’s 77 years old so it needs to happen before he dies lol
@ocallesp
2 ай бұрын
5 years from now.... that is not easy for someone that is sick or too old
@mas-udal-hassan9277
2 ай бұрын
@@ocallesp😅😅😅
@DioBrandoWRYYYYYY
2 ай бұрын
Kurtzweil is actually a cook who believes that eventually everyone is going to live forever
@timothyvincent3436
2 ай бұрын
Or he figures he will be dead soon so why bother changing his mind now. F it. Kind of like Keynesian economics.
@rockerdude86
2 ай бұрын
@@ocallesp he's been saying this for 30 years
@Jake-Day
2 ай бұрын
Remind me in ten years KZitem.
@JarrodDSchneider
2 ай бұрын
In ten years time KZitem’s reminders will have grown exponentially, meaning you won’t be able to find the recommendation for this video because there will be too many to sort through.
@KeCasgrimola
2 ай бұрын
in ten years i’ll be exploring andromeda galaxy because agi in 5 years, asi in 6 years, and in 10 years we’ll have made 10 million years of technological progress @@JarrodDSchneider
@phoenixrising7047
2 ай бұрын
Come back to this video in 10 years. Won't be long. Will be interesting to reflect on this mans position on things.
@MacDaddyC7Z06
2 ай бұрын
Reminding you about it at 18 hrs.
@boiboiboi1419
2 ай бұрын
See u next year
@benbochenek4955
2 ай бұрын
This was painful. I did make a calendar reminder for 01/012029 with a link to this video. I’m going to test my current scecptisim and BS meter
@DantesHQ
2 ай бұрын
You wont have to wait for 2029, AGI will be here in 2-3 years.
let's just hope the internet still exists by then...........
@thestarseeker8196
2 ай бұрын
I get the interview is a little sleepy but do people here really not know who Kurzweil is?
@Good.Glacier
2 ай бұрын
Exactly my friend! A bunch of idiot savant bashing a true gentle Genius, Ray easily is still in the top 20 minds on the Planet right now. How disrespectful Joe has become.e, Joe is straight up a Dunce, he thinks his talking points are intelligence....what a dink.......what this chat shows specifically is that America is in great trouble when the vast majority actually think Joe is more intelligent and on point than Kurzweil.....I mean did they forget about Ramona? Tons of companies usurped Ray's work over the years, he alone basically invented AI with that project alone.
@z1z2z3z
2 ай бұрын
I read two of his books, dude is a self aggrandizing hack who moves the goalposts continually to make his predictions 'correct' and then has the gall to brag about it, an intellectual for nit-wits.
@lewisburton1852
2 ай бұрын
right! crazy. "he developed the Kurzweil Reading Machine-the first machine that could read printed and typed documents aloud." and that's just one thing.
@TornSoul062473
2 ай бұрын
No. No, they don't.
@eliaskahila
2 ай бұрын
Judging from this comment section, man, I think most have absolutely no idea who he is and how legendary of a career he has had.
@Joey_Stringfellow
2 ай бұрын
This was an exponential waste of time..
@chazmandingo5396
2 ай бұрын
You won't think that in 10 years
@alfredoj9791
2 ай бұрын
@@chazmandingo5396 the only thing that exponentially wasted here is your comment.
@matthewgrogg6375
2 ай бұрын
I can’t say for sure but I believe this was sarcasm, I’ll give it 10 years to be certain though
@jamesallenyz431
2 ай бұрын
Best comment here. Dude was so full of himself
@CantTellYou
2 ай бұрын
Disagree. We get to watch Rogan lose faith in his former hero, in real time!
@1214gooner
2 ай бұрын
“We don’t need nuclear, we have sun and wind and 10 years.” “I’m sorry sir, the only truth here is that you yourself have less than 10 years of life.” “No, I have another 100 years. It’s exponential growth.”
@andreavanda5402
2 ай бұрын
Yup, years ago he said this was a race of beating the AI clock before his own demise.
@inspectorcrud
2 ай бұрын
He's actually slightly younger than Sly, hard to believe I know
@replynotificationsdisabled
2 ай бұрын
everything is nuclear
@dertythegrower
2 ай бұрын
@@replynotificationsdisabledNo... the one in Miami has been leaking.. my first video is in the closest public park lake to it.. i know more sorry, its not safe. Undeniable science.
@dertythegrower
2 ай бұрын
Not safe.. the miami plant is leaking.. end of convo you lose.
@SandNebula232
2 ай бұрын
I’m making exponential gains of brain damage the more I watch this
@Ravum
2 ай бұрын
The 2 important questions about AI that people never ask: 1. Will it appear on jre as a guest? 2. Will authorities find a dismembered body in its house afterwards?
@activision4170
Ай бұрын
If an AI bought a house before us, I'd be pissed. Sell it to humans dammit.
@1214gooner
2 ай бұрын
Ray’s own computational power seems to be sputtering😂
@djadsbeats
2 ай бұрын
Ray.I
@dadisonline
2 ай бұрын
Exponentially
@joshuaedwards3322
2 ай бұрын
Sure seems that way, but he's smiling like the cat who ate the canary... He's been working with computer intelligence before most of us were allowed off the porch. Also, he knows 3.5 million sheeple are watching. "How do I give them enough to be terrified, but not so terrified that they actually get off the couch and do something about this grape-session they are about to receive"?
@CantTellYou
2 ай бұрын
idk about that, he’s clearly a ventriloquist dummy
@andrecheers9169
2 ай бұрын
Facts
@selfawarepotassium
Ай бұрын
This dude couldn’t look any less like the image of a futurist I had in my head. He looks more like an accordion player.
@TheBlueB0mber
2 ай бұрын
Expectation: AI gets smarter Reality: Human gets *dumber*
@user-sf3dw2sm3b
8 күн бұрын
Some humans will merge with AI. They are already being raised by parents with a secret. The secret is some children have been genetically enhanced. They have been doing it for years.
@MathGPT
2 ай бұрын
I love that he brought a printed graph. Old school!
@user-ty9ho4ct4k
2 ай бұрын
Old-school futurist
@richardbroad2848
2 ай бұрын
Bless him!
@Monsux
2 ай бұрын
What is freaky about AI intelligence… The exponential growth. Start may seem slow, but learning rate isn't linear. Look back one year, two years, three years… Now make predictions for next year or two. It's going to be a wild ride.
@ghost9-9ghost
2 ай бұрын
Precisely....and anyone who has had a kid has observed this in humans....they sometimes take a LONG time for their first word...and then 2 months later they are talking... Same with reading...I have a cousin who was slow to read....was concerning...but then she reached a threshold and just suddenly was reading everything like an adult
@activision4170
Ай бұрын
The learning rate is a constant mate. It is linear by definition. Dynamic learning rates aren't really mainstream yet. Or do you mean loss?
@awfulpwn
2 ай бұрын
A lot of you guys don't know how important Ray Kurzweil is and it shows.
@brushstroke3733
2 ай бұрын
Important how? To whom?
@zrblank
2 ай бұрын
Rogan has a lot of ignorant followers and it shows, you can see the contrast over on fridmans interview
@RaggedAdam
2 ай бұрын
I've seen transcendent man. The guy is a bit of a lunatic.
@zsombornagy3935
2 ай бұрын
@@brushstroke3733He's important to Larry Page... and Neil DeGrasse Tyson, need anymore?
@brushstroke3733
2 ай бұрын
@@zsombornagy3935 NDT is a windbag, so that just undermines RK reputation even further. Larry Page likes RK - well whooptie doo.
@coastcity7029
2 ай бұрын
AI will be so smart in the next decade that people will begin worshipping one like a God
@kirkfabrin4839
Ай бұрын
Yep.somepeople are already at that point now with their phone!
@billj4525
Ай бұрын
In terms of usage yeah. The guy with the comment about the phone is right. Technically some people are already there with their phone.
@shanebplante
Ай бұрын
Ai will make us gods
@activision4170
Ай бұрын
As a computer scientist, I would cringe so hard
@Overloaded877
2 ай бұрын
People who say AI will never replace humans are in the first stage of grief = *Denial*
@michaelkupfer3723
Ай бұрын
The AI needs us more than we need it
@activision4170
Ай бұрын
Depends what you mean by replace
@brenthekideire
2 ай бұрын
I'm still waiting for the hoover boards from back to the future.
@andrewferguson8032
2 ай бұрын
Ray is still working on his flux capacitor made from kitchen parts
@epicswirl
2 ай бұрын
Do you mean hover? Or like a Hoover vacuum you can ride?
@shaunbauer78
Ай бұрын
Antigravity tech is still strictly area 51
@familyfulkerson3257
2 ай бұрын
Guys, I'm an old fart and therefore know this guys story. He is hands down the most famous futurist, and for being right.... Bill gates called him the best predicter of future tech he knew. I do not personally have an opinion about this current conversation. I also, can't tell if he is speaking broadly or not. Or if he is speaking functionally possible vs actually implemented. What I want to say is, his background is incredible. He invented some very impressive tech back in the day before becoming famous as a futurist. If you are into this kind of information, it is worth your time to do a deep dive on Ray Kurzweil. I will say, his age is showing and that is painful to see. I've been with tech every step of the way. These last couple yrs have been the most dramatic, and that makes sense in the context of exponential growth. Its the later steps that see the biggest jumps. I do not rule out what he is saying in terms of technically possible, but sadly, I do not see humans functionally implementing it that quickly.
@Good.Glacier
2 ай бұрын
💯 this chat full of idiot Joe worshipers, Ray's mind still is in the top 20 of everyone on the Planet, he literally invented AI with "Ramona"
@collinbergkamp7077
2 ай бұрын
I hear you. This comment section is sad and says a lot about where Rogan's audience is these days... painfully dumb.
@andrewferguson8032
2 ай бұрын
Good analysis, but Ray has clearly lost touch with feasibility. Just his argument about the grid was so far off, it was exponential
@elijahspears5778
2 ай бұрын
Yep. One of the most prolific inventors ever. People don't really know who this dude is.
@z1z2z3z
2 ай бұрын
I know Ray, read "the singularity is near" book like 15 years ago, almost 100% of his predictions fell flat on their face. Then he wrote another book about how right he was and just moved the goal posts for all his predictions. Bill Gates praised him? you mean the college drop-out who buys out governing bodies and then makes his money off forced medical treatments? cool story
@TheNaturalust
2 ай бұрын
The efficiency of solar panels hits some pretty hard limits based on the materials used to make semiconductors.
@ryantogo8359
2 ай бұрын
Nope you're totally wrong. Because muh exponential growth
@TheNaturalust
2 ай бұрын
@@ryantogo8359 As an electrical engineer who has worked in and done research in that field, I must say you are wrong. But it’s pretty deeply technical and outside the understanding of 95% of people. Efficiencies started at about 6% when I started in this field and we’ve come a long way however.
@activision4170
Ай бұрын
@@TheNaturalust It's a joke because the guy in the podcast is just saying exponential growth
@samtesla2248
2 ай бұрын
Bearable at 1.3 speed.
@nobody-cl1xr
2 ай бұрын
Fixed it
@microchrist6122
2 ай бұрын
He sounds so normal at that speed it seems like this is a slowed down joke haha
@EolosMusic
2 ай бұрын
You’re the kind of person that needs a subway surfers video put on the side, bc of your short attention span 😂😂😂😂
@sonnylambert4893
2 ай бұрын
@@EolosMusicSomebody makes a observation that is obvious to the majority of us because the guest is speaking extremely slowly. And meandering also I might ad, as if he’s hoping what he saying will make logical senve as he goes along. So in his and your own ideological defence, I am assuming ! you decide to insult that comment or, And many others who are agreeing, by saying they have some sort of attention deficit. So just what “of person are you”!😂
@blinkers88
2 ай бұрын
@@sonnylambert4893what on earth are you rambling about
@southoc1355
2 ай бұрын
Every answer “exponentially” 😂😂😂😂
@trapexit
2 ай бұрын
He's just wrong about solar panels. Yes, panels have improved in efficiency but that doesn't mean you are significantly improving the efficiency per square inch. And batteries are not exponentially better.
@matthewmiller2206
2 ай бұрын
A futurist who brings paper charts to a podcast… checks out.
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
who predicted that in 2009 we'd see the end of paper documents as they'd be replaced by digital documents. 😂
@atomtamadas
2 ай бұрын
This guy is the Peter Zeihan of technology :D
@ghost9-9ghost
2 ай бұрын
I think zeihans hair is natural tho...
@justinkassinger8238
2 ай бұрын
Peter is right on mostly everything. Just cuz your one of the people who buys into the "the dollar is dying, buy gold!" Scam. Don't be mad that your a sheep
@brushstroke3733
2 ай бұрын
😂😂
@jeltoninc.8542
2 ай бұрын
What are some things Peter has been wrong in? Genuinely interested as I have watched some of his vids but I’m not a fanboy or anything. I just like watching people hike and talk 🤣
@MrExtr1234
2 ай бұрын
Not even close😂 guy's an engineer/scientist, zeihan is just some smooth brain commentator
@seanthompson6159
2 ай бұрын
What the hell is a futurist?
@taylemgames2652
2 ай бұрын
Someone who uses intelligent speculation to predict the future.
@melloone611
2 ай бұрын
You need AI to answer that question lol ask Siri
@freddiecuffe4688
2 ай бұрын
@@melloone611lmao perfect answer
@TJL6969
2 ай бұрын
Another variation of a Globalist Elite billionaire freak
@Pir-o
2 ай бұрын
Someone who really likes the word "Exponentially"
@talopi
2 ай бұрын
"The power output of the sun is growing exponentially", I couldn't take this guy seriously after I heard that line
@JesusChristBlesses
2 ай бұрын
“Uhm, exponential, uhm, exponentially, uhhhhhhhhhmmmmm…”*powers down AI self*
@alexanderson9442
2 ай бұрын
This guy talks like an AI trying to learn human but only studied the books 😂
@GovnaBuckingham
2 ай бұрын
nerds
@Danny-qh4su
2 ай бұрын
Yeah he's either lying or ignorant, and nuclear is the future. He's probably taking money from renewable companies or lobbies.
@Dollapfin
2 ай бұрын
@@Danny-qh4subiggest issue with this is that the guy has no idea why he’s talking about nor what Joe is trying to ask him.
@boylerbg
2 ай бұрын
Fuck me you are hilarious. Brilliant😅
@andrewferguson8032
2 ай бұрын
This guy is the Mike Baker of math
@Iamrightyouarewrong
2 ай бұрын
Well he's wrong.
@angryoperatorakacrazybob8998
2 ай бұрын
Ya I agree. .I think..lol
@breadgarlichouse2265
2 ай бұрын
why is he wrong? How do you know that you are not wrong?
@nonnobis2232
2 ай бұрын
In my expert opinion I concur!
@rockerdude86
2 ай бұрын
Sounds like you have not been keeping up
@_hootjohnson
2 ай бұрын
Maybe he means AI is getting dumber every year. If that’s the case, he would be right.
@davekush3171
2 ай бұрын
I listened to the whole episode. The asymmetry between this man's understanding of tech vs his understanding of humanity is dangerously immense!
@davekush3171
2 ай бұрын
The perfect example of "we will invent it in somebody else will figure out how to handle it"
@brittanym1626
2 ай бұрын
He’s not actually answering Joe Rogan’s questions. He’s just repeating himself over and over again in “10 years.”
@dilldowschwagginz2674
Ай бұрын
He's a typical self absorbed lib from academia. They're ALL like that
@alexrangel490
2 ай бұрын
I think he really needs a nap. He was very flabbergasted on the "is this graph online" question. Lol
@dominick253
2 ай бұрын
He looked like he wanted to say damn kids want everything to be online. I have this perfectly printed out piece of paper here. 😅😅😅
@ghost9-9ghost
2 ай бұрын
@dominick253 when society collapses you will be begging this lunatic for a sketch pad and a pencil...haha
@Occult-Classist
2 ай бұрын
@dominick253 i mean that kind of has been his point. Just because he acknowledges the advancement of tech, it doesn't mean he loves it or wants to constantly engage with it. Quite the opposite, really.
@robertd9850
2 ай бұрын
It's in the book.
@doobiescoobie
2 ай бұрын
He was like, damn, who is going to buy my books if you kids want everything online.
@gabes3dvideos
2 ай бұрын
Total faith in scientism is exponentially embarrassing with age.
@Natsirt666
2 ай бұрын
Scientism?? That's... not a thing my dude...
@zrblank
2 ай бұрын
Tf is scientism lol
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
@@zrblank something you could look up on the Internet. it is essentially a quasi-religious belief that science and the scientific method are the only way to render truth about reality. That said, the OP seems to be misunderstanding it.
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
@@Natsirt666 yes it is, my dude. But it isn't what the OP seems to think it is.
@shiddy.
2 ай бұрын
same as any ism
@Trickmyster777
Ай бұрын
Old guys get out of touch with reality, exponentially
@TheGodlikeParagon
2 ай бұрын
99.7% over 35 years is not exponential growth, that's less than doubling.
@LK-ui9rx
2 ай бұрын
"100% Renewable energy in 10 years" That's not even possible theoretically
@jwm2762
2 ай бұрын
lol you're not accounting for the exponential growth though
@KernalPanics
2 ай бұрын
Ya not gonna happen.
@KernalPanics
2 ай бұрын
And the use of energy is going up a lot year by year now due to crypto mining and A.I. training as the training of them uses a lot of energy and is only going up.
@andreavanda5402
2 ай бұрын
Until the grid collapses! Nikola Tesla he's NOT!
@gypsyemperor7535
2 ай бұрын
@@andreavanda5402 Nikola Tesla was a mad man who died in poverty, most of his ideas were pure insanity
@LoadPuller
2 ай бұрын
When was his last prediction correct?
@TomPeary
2 ай бұрын
Apparently he has 88% success rate but I’ve not seen the predictions themselves. I just don’t trust his appearance 😂
@anu1776
2 ай бұрын
@@TomPearylmfao he does look a bit off hahahaha
@dertythegrower
2 ай бұрын
I have proven ones here.. he does not.
@tacitozetticci9308
2 ай бұрын
It's basically the same deal as Dr Ben Goertzel lol but yeah in the end they aren't nuts. (Ray is clearly getting old though, this clip sucks)
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
@@TomPeary The 86% figure thrown around about him is one he came up with. But it includes obviously failed predictions as accurate. For example he claimed that by 2009 most kids (presuming in the western countries, or even just in America) would learn to read at home before school using computers. Clearly that didn't happen. But in his self-analysis of his "own" predictions he called it accurate because a single paper claimed that 9% of kids entering kindergarten knew how to read. Nothing in the paper attributed it to computers at home, and 9% is much closer to 0% than it is 51%. He basically makes vague assertions that experts in the field are already doing, then claims credit when something can remotely be interpreted as him predicting it. Another example he claims is that he predicted the fall of the USSR. but experts had done that years before.
@FATMAN_tactical
2 ай бұрын
Man bear pig will raise the oceans by 2012
@KennyVert
2 ай бұрын
Thank you very much for uploading these digestible clips.
@ryansark1795
2 ай бұрын
New drinking game, every time he says" expidential growth"
@satorified1612
2 ай бұрын
I’d be puking my guts out…..
@WillyJunior
2 ай бұрын
If this dude doesn't drink coffee he needs to start
@ghost9-9ghost
2 ай бұрын
He's old and he has spent the last 20 years sewing those suspenders....so hes not in the best shape...haha
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
@@ghost9-9ghost worse, if he is still on it, he was on a "less than 10% dietary fat" diet he allegedly came up with. That is about a third of what the few scientific papers to address neuroprotective intake uses.
@ghost9-9ghost
2 ай бұрын
@IAmTheRealBill I very much agree....low fat diets are a terrible idea....despite that both keto and carnivore diets are based on pseudo science and the lies of zealots, one of the few things they have as benefit are fat content.....and putting niche studies aside, fat is simply required....structurally and functionally .. for human biology Yeah it's sad...I don't know much about kurzweil....but.....whatever he may have been in the past is gone...
@user-sv4rp3yd4x
2 ай бұрын
Joe wantes to call BULL SH#T but he's too nice
@kathleenp3135
2 ай бұрын
He’s so nice.
@geoalpha
2 ай бұрын
He matches the energy of who he talks to, generally. Kurzweil is so soft spoken nowadays Joe just wants to get him talking at all.
@Gnaritas42
2 ай бұрын
Yup, he believes Elon over Ray, as he should. Ray is talking out of his ass right now.
@bhavjotsingh3190
2 ай бұрын
Like he knows shit about technology lmao
@Waterhouse1666
Ай бұрын
AI EXPERT HERE: AI will soon be so powerful it will be able to create realistic and convincing toupees for Ray Kurzweils head
@activision4170
Ай бұрын
😂 diffusion can do that
@kakamarioluigi
2 ай бұрын
We need to change the name to SI simulated intelligence, lets not be too hasty to put this stuff on a pedestal.
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
Or just use language model.
@activision4170
Ай бұрын
@@IAmTheRealBill Can't be language model because not all models are language-based (e.g., CNN).
@activision4170
Ай бұрын
How about: Curve optimization Why even say intelligence? That's where people go wrong.
@captainbumface3595
2 ай бұрын
Chating shit, AI still thinks the Vikings are black.
@michaeldeats328
2 ай бұрын
Whose to say they weren’t black be more open minded
@_Scarlet1
2 ай бұрын
@@michaeldeats328history. History says that Vikings weren’t black
@Pir-o
2 ай бұрын
That's the stupidity of people who put restrictions on it, not stupidity of the AI itself.
@michaeldeats328
2 ай бұрын
@@_Scarlet1 yea but they also said Jesus was white your claims are sus your stance feeble and your beliefs flawed, go to the yard with the other specials and play nice
@GovnaBuckingham
2 ай бұрын
woosh@@_Scarlet1
@jeffpost5709
2 ай бұрын
This dude sounds like he’s talkin out his ass
@nathanthegod731
2 ай бұрын
Agreed
@ghost9-9ghost
2 ай бұрын
I think his geomagnetic poles are in the middle of shifting...
@terenceflanagan1225
2 ай бұрын
He is
@GrumpDog
2 ай бұрын
Do people not realize how serious this is? This should be the CENTRAL election issue! How workers are going to survive as AI takes most jobs businesses were once willing to pay humans for, needs to be prepared for ASAP! Our labor based economy will not continue to work! The average worker should not starve, just because AI will soon do most work.
@MichaelErnest666
2 ай бұрын
UBI
@terenceflanagan1225
2 ай бұрын
🤣. You're very presumptive that anytimg will be resembling order in 2 years
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
Nice parody.
@Jagar_Tharn
Ай бұрын
@@IAmTheRealBill Ignorance is bliss.
@activision4170
Ай бұрын
Labor based economy is failing without AI.
@Akcvs
2 ай бұрын
People in the comments have no clue that the average expert prediction for human level AI is currently 2026 to 2030
@jeltoninc.8542
2 ай бұрын
UN Agenda 2030
@enricocamarda9721
2 ай бұрын
Really?
@BaphomentIsAwsome666
2 ай бұрын
Yet no one can explain what intelligence is but don't worry AI will have it
@Akcvs
2 ай бұрын
@@BaphomentIsAwsome666 what do you mean nobody can explain what intelligence is lol
@Akcvs
2 ай бұрын
@@enricocamarda9721 yes according to the average expert prediction on Metaculus
@masonm600
2 ай бұрын
I read his book "The Singularity Is Near" in 2004. He has stayed remarkably consistent in his big predictions. Which conveniently are still years out. But he doesn't always see the gap between "there is tech for this" and "there is demand for this." And yes, he applies exponential growth to everything, even places it doesn't apply. Case in point: he says life expectancy is on an exponential growth curve. And average can look like that if you squint, but *maximum* lifespan has remained consistently ~120.
@andrewferguson8032
2 ай бұрын
He is confirmation bias personified
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
Indeed, he does *now* consistently say these things are "a decade' or "decades" out. Because despite what the comment section here believes, his actual accuracy is in the gutter.
@1labrinth
2 ай бұрын
When the technologist has paper documents be skeptical
@andrewtrottier9951
2 ай бұрын
Ray: "We're making exponential growth on that too" Joe: "but are we really?" 😂
@KhattaRapidus
2 ай бұрын
2029 rolls around Ray: "My prediction was off, okay. I thought I was right on the money. Scientists are now saying."
@SandNebula232
2 ай бұрын
He’ll be dead by 2029
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
based on his self-eval, he would count it as a win.
@arryharry
2 ай бұрын
Just in time for the predicted 2030 reset... 😅
@jeltoninc.8542
2 ай бұрын
You see it for what it is. Nothing is “by accident” or “random”.
@winstonsol8713
2 ай бұрын
In 2027 he’ll adjust this to 2035. And so on. In 1990 everyone thought we’d be on Mars and have flying cars before 2020.
@Shirtsaysshirt
2 ай бұрын
Only movie buffs thought that.
@willyword3413
2 ай бұрын
Not that tho it’s like Moore’s law it will prob be a bit sooner
@EolosMusic
2 ай бұрын
Actually he has said 2029 since like 50 years ago so you’re wrong lol
@EolosMusic
2 ай бұрын
@@willyword3413 These plebs don’t know what’s coming 😅
@masonm600
2 ай бұрын
He's had the same date since at least 2003. Singularity 2045! But ya he just waves away the idea we could plateau any time soon.
@bigbossvi429
2 ай бұрын
Somebody watch the whole interview and count how many name he says ‘exponentially.’
@yukloop
2 ай бұрын
He seems bothered when he doesn’t get to say “exponentially”. It’s like he really doesn’t want to have a conversation and seems super close minded. It was awkward ^2
@LowkeyFish
2 ай бұрын
Ray Kurzweil is a legend. Most of you guys are the crazy ones...
@eliaskahila
2 ай бұрын
Yes, he really has an incredible career and life-of-work and he has been spot on on predictions as well. He is old, and having a tired day here, but judging from the comments here I feel people have no idea who he is. If they knew who he is, the comments wouldnt be like this. Sorry for Ray!
@nychris2258
2 ай бұрын
Yes, unfortunately most of Joe Rogan's audience are m0r0ns... Kurzweil is getting up there in years. He was a lot sharper at explaining this stuff 10 or 20 years ago. He's been accurately predicting the growth of computing power for like 50 years now.
@rohithkoteval1785
Ай бұрын
Yes
@billj4525
Ай бұрын
Well yeah, 90% of the comments on any youtube page are full of stupidity.
@AbdullahMikalRodriguez
Ай бұрын
Ray is bat shit crazy. He wants to revive his dead father with AI. These futurists have some serious personal issues...
@creativename6126
2 ай бұрын
Rays entire philosophy stems from a deep rooted fear of death. All of his estimations have always been for it to happen right before he reaches the life expectancy. The singularity has a major issue in that it does not account for diminishing returns, nor does it account for sentient AI just not willing to be enslaved.
@DantesHQ
2 ай бұрын
If you read his book he answers all of that. Diminishing returns do not exist with technology because technology innovations compound between each other. We use old technology to build better technology and we then use better technology to build even more amazing things. This is what leads to exponential growth.
@yaboiflint5926
2 ай бұрын
@@DantesHQah yes the exponential growth, I forgot to take that into account
@zsombornagy3935
2 ай бұрын
@@DantesHQThats most people's problem in the comments, they don't read his book or anything about him, they go off this podcast appearance and make assumptions.
@lewisburton1852
2 ай бұрын
@@DantesHQ Diminishing returns exist accross the board even tech just manufacturing chips is a huge problem.
@BaphomentIsAwsome666
2 ай бұрын
@@DantesHQThe plank length would like to talk to you
@R.Gresco
2 ай бұрын
What a marvelous toupee
@Jay-407
2 ай бұрын
Exponentially
@martinsatyen7833
2 ай бұрын
@@Jay-407Toupeexponentially
@walterreuther1779
Ай бұрын
So bacterial growth in a substrate, say in a batch of inoculated beer substrate is exponential for a while. At some point, the alcohol concentration is too high, or the space is too limited, or there just isn't enough sugar for the growth to continue and it slows and stops. This is the first thing I am thinking of when I think of exponential growth. I wonder why he seems to think that it will go on indefinitely, for the solar panel example for instance ...
@youknowkbbaby
16 күн бұрын
Moores law is already dead.
@robertd9850
2 ай бұрын
Aptera is already developing a solar charging car. Solar panels on the roof, hood, dash, and back add up to 40 miles per day depending on where you live, time of year, weather, etc.
@samdavis456
2 ай бұрын
We need to create AI that has to sleep 8 hours a day to give us a chance 😅😴
@RustOnWindows
2 ай бұрын
To truly become human it has to be wrong and fail at times. Have to be able to purposefully oppose things to create awkward situations
@freddiecuffe4688
2 ай бұрын
True statement
@ryantogo8359
2 ай бұрын
Literally no one said anything about becoming human, Merlin
@marcusk7855
2 ай бұрын
Still a huge difference in AI being able to do anything and an AI wanting to do something. AGI doesn't mean self aware.
@conr2141
2 ай бұрын
He's right.. most AI experts have been readjusting their estimates of AGI to ever-earlier dates over the decades. Kurzweil has stuck to 2029 all this time. He's also gotten 80+ % of hist past predictions right.
@FailBucketFilms
2 ай бұрын
Please provide his predictions (successful or otherwise)
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
@@FailBucketFilms he won't. You see that 86% is Ray's own assessment, which includes obvious failures such as "most children will learn to read via computer before school by 2009" - which clearly is a strike out. He largely makes general assertions that are not novel, vague, and usually obvious to the experts. For example he claimed in the 90s that computers would eventually replace phones for communication - something that was predicted in the 60s. Ray basically follows the school of thought that says "make a shit-ton of predictions, people will forget the failures and marvel at the few successes" - which this comment section is demonstrating to be true.
@activision4170
Ай бұрын
Name one AI expert that has actually contributed to the field that gave an AGI estimate you are referring to. Also, he can't be right even if he is right; he doesn't have enough understanding of the field to make reasonable claims. As shown in the interview.
@BOZ_11
2 ай бұрын
he's conflating the growth in computational power with "AI" (chatbot) programs. LLM's will plateau and we'll need a paradigm shift to make big strides; it is not linear, it's stop-go for "AI"
@theredknight9314
2 ай бұрын
No
@GovnaBuckingham
2 ай бұрын
cars are literally driving themselves cuh
@thechatgpttutor
2 ай бұрын
might be the case, but LLMs can be made better, faster etc all those nice things before we need something 'new'
@DantesHQ
2 ай бұрын
Nope you are just straight up wrong. As we scale deep learning more and more emergent properties seem to emerge out of the systems. Claude 3 for example just passed the needle in the haystack and display high levels of situational awareness. This all happened because we optimized and scaled. There could be a few things that we are missing, but so far it seems like we wont be needing those things.
@activision4170
Ай бұрын
@@DantesHQ No, they do plateau. You're talking about the training data / model which isn't really what they're talking about. Think about the the number of layers in a network. For example, Resnet-50 vs Resnet-101 vs ResNet-152. The improvement among adding the layers is not exponential to the number of extra layers, and it will plateau eventually (i.e., error % is typically not much different from Resnet-101 vs Resnet-152 compared to the difference between Resent-50 and Resent-101 which is larger). Computational power helps a lot, but that's not all it is. They need to design better architectures.
@jamesb6102
2 ай бұрын
Joe a man who knows he doesnt know. Ray a man who thinks he knows.
@andrewferguson8032
2 ай бұрын
Is Ray related to Mike Baker?
@LukeWatson1
2 ай бұрын
I think they’re speaking at cross purposes between the amount of deployed solar (exponential) vs the efficiency of a given PV panel (incremental).
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
It is pretty common for people to obsess over a panel's technical efficiency while completely glossing over physical limitations of materials, deployment, etc.. Regardless of technical efficiency, the typical solar installation runs at about 15% capacity - compared to coal with runs around 80% of capacity and can spike to full capacity. Then you have to consider the inconsistency of it - meaning you need energy storage, typically a battery bank, to try to level it out. The battery tech is a massive limiting factor absent an unimagined breakthrough; in part because the physical supply of key materials on the planet are insufficiently available.
@Megaman.ExE7
2 ай бұрын
Is _exponential growth_ a formula? Or is he just saying that things are going to get bigger and better because they have already been on the trajectory of getting bigger and better?
@lgtokyo2665
2 ай бұрын
Yes. Its V = S x (1+R)^T
@Megaman.ExE7
2 ай бұрын
@@lgtokyo2665Thank you, I thought he was talking in circles for a second
@lgtokyo2665
2 ай бұрын
@@Megaman.ExE7 ya. He’s 76 but seems he has some sort of health issue. His hands were shaking a lot.
@Megaman.ExE7
2 ай бұрын
@@lgtokyo2665That makes me sad :( Awesome man, he never stops learning. People like this have made my heart and mind exponentially grow more and more
@JorgeEstebann
2 ай бұрын
Joe, in Los Angeles we have not had any issues with the power grid since you left. 👀
@kcwkembm
2 ай бұрын
But you still live in l.a...
@ryantogo8359
2 ай бұрын
@@kcwkembmthat's because a million other people fled as well 😂
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
@@ryantogo8359 and CA is importing most of its electricity.
@ModerateObserver
28 күн бұрын
Kurzweil's whole schtick is unjustified long-term extrapolation of exponential curves. Turn his exponentials into (more realistic) s-curves and the end scenario looks a lot different. We could well find that out soon when solar plateaus, when GPT 5 proves an incremental advance.
@FractalPrism.
25 күн бұрын
there is no s-curve, no 'schtick'. no matter the window of time viewed, technology advancement has always been exponential disliking how this is constantly proven correct does not make it less so
@bkb04g
2 ай бұрын
Solar panels have an upper bound for effeciency at around 45%, but thats not a bottleneck, you can simply produce panels. They have increased dramatically from what existed in the 90's however.
@whitekong9535
2 ай бұрын
If he thinks we'll be strictly on renewable energy in 10 years he's insane
@dertythegrower
2 ай бұрын
UndecidedWithMatt will help change some of your views.. i know it will, not 10 but 20
@conr2141
2 ай бұрын
u thinking linearly bro.. we've already achieved positive net energy outputs in fusion reactors all over the world... get with it dude..
@whitekong9535
2 ай бұрын
@@conr2141 he said wind and solar and not nuclear
@conr2141
2 ай бұрын
@@whitekong9535 we’ll have the technical ability to meet humanity’s energy needs with solar in 10 years. Doesn’t mean we’ll opt to. Other green options might be more effective - Like fusion.
@andrewferguson8032
2 ай бұрын
@@conr2141I’m putting my money on cold fusion 😂
@txterbug
2 ай бұрын
2029 kind of an odd exact number
@loganscalf_
21 күн бұрын
I’m confused why he says it’s exponential but it’s a linear graph
@sfwcommenting
2 ай бұрын
"In 10 years you can power Los Angeles with wind and solar" who exactly called this guy an expert? Yeesh
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
Well, if they continue to trash the place and most people move into tents, maybe. ;)
@chaselepard
2 ай бұрын
Duncan's dad seems nice
@static1dragon
2 ай бұрын
We still do not have light processing at the level we need for true AI. Not just novel machine learning tasks we call AI. Processing still needs to be much better. 2029 is still too early for that. I would be surprised if true light processing was halfway there by 2029.
@TheBlackClockOfTime
2 ай бұрын
The irony of Ray Kurtzweil coming to a podcast with a piece of paper is just... maxed out. By looks of how much the paper is vibrating in his hand it seems that he might not have time to see the singularity. That makes me sad.
@IAmTheRealBill
2 ай бұрын
The irony is even thicker when you remember he predicted the end of paper documents by 2009.
@Jagar_Tharn
Ай бұрын
@@IAmTheRealBill Which, for some reason, you think means that it should have become _impossible_ to print paper documents in 2009.
@swatzinatorhanselhoff7858
Ай бұрын
This comment section has me worried exponentially that idiocracy is already here
@dr.scottadams296
2 ай бұрын
Human level Intelligence isn't very impressive
@Cyprianous
2 ай бұрын
Your comment proves that
@marcsavard9661
2 ай бұрын
@@Cyprianous😂😂😂😂😂 Great comment
@THESKALLYWAG
Ай бұрын
Depends on the human
@stevehaney344
2 ай бұрын
I couldn't help but chuckle when the guy talking about how rapidly technology is advancing pulled out a graph on paper then didn't answer when Joe asked if the graph was available online. No matter how we keep up with tech it seems there will always be some old tech we'll hold onto.
@Jagar_Tharn
Ай бұрын
Ray: "I have this info in a book I am currently selling." Joe: "But can people get it online for free?" Ray: *hesitates* comment section: 🤡
@activision4170
Ай бұрын
It's difficult to transition to newer technology because it requires a lot of relearning which is usually done at a young age.
@Michael_Jackson187
Ай бұрын
Scientist: we have no idea where consciousness comes from. Computer bros: yea bro it will be able to be self aware. Have you guys ever seen the graph where the line is forever about to touch the other line but never crosses or touches it? Thats us.
@edwardsilva5511
Ай бұрын
2:22 "This straight line represents exponential growth" - shows linear growth graph. 5:35 "It does the same every year, it's an exponential curve". This guy doesn't know what exponential means.
@ShadyNorris
2 ай бұрын
It will happen in (insert random number) years. Trust me.
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