Last time he was bullish on gold stocks they went down, now he's bearish so now's the time to buy
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
last time I was bullish on gold was in 2018
@minutemaniii7062
2 ай бұрын
Hahaha he is always behind and wrong😂😂😂😂
@Hyper1555
6 ай бұрын
One of the best and most in depth you have made in last few years. I knew these statements before your video, but I always had a soft spot for gold, but you opened my mind on how f*cked an ETF can be when most of the big componies just destroy share holder capital with otherwise a somehow good asset. Shame on them and the management and thank you for opening up these insight!
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
my pleasure!
@CheesumX
6 ай бұрын
Good summary. It mostly confirms my own conclusion when I spent a few hours researching gold miners when Newmont was going down. Basically, the costs of production of the overall industry increased too much in comparison to the price of gold itself to make it any of them worth a buy (along with the rest of the cons for Newmont, i.e. the inherent risks of operations, share dilution, lower margins than competitors, etc.). I would have loved to buy the dip but I just couldn't justify doing so. The only miner I found to be interesting, both from a risk perspective and cost of operations, was Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) but the share price was too high, likely because the company is of better quality.
@MrLTiger
6 ай бұрын
lmao "a few hours of research". you confirmed your bias on the internet and now you think you know anything.
@CheesumX
6 ай бұрын
@@MrLTiger Can't see you adding anything of value there, how about some proper arguments? Besides, if something needs more than a few hours of research before digging deeper, it's likely not a good opportunity.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
I haven't checked Agnico recently
@BetweenDogandWolf
3 ай бұрын
Sven, I found your videos on newmont long after posting. At that time you were long Newmont… Am I understanding correctly that even this most recent dip was not a buy for you?
@billcarruth8122
6 ай бұрын
Gold royalty and streaming is probably a better way to invest than in the actual miners. Franco Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, Royal Gold, Osisko Mining for some examples.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
yes, but those are also usually priced in that way
@RafitoMembroza
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-InvestingI think that Sandstorm is not priced in as the other royalties. That’s my only gold play, due to the low quality of the sector
@trevorroy3594
6 ай бұрын
Always such a pleasure to hear you're thinking. thanks sven!
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Thanks
@lesleyjohnson8488
6 ай бұрын
You have the most startlingly blue eyes. Thanks for your rich and thoughtful research. It has been such an inspiration to me to think about the vertical and horizontal interplays within a particular industry and who is best situated to benefit from market fluctuations. 😊
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
thanks!
@andrewmitchell7592
6 ай бұрын
Thank you. It all makes sense now. So just gold miners are acting like Bitcoin's where their miners are getting hit with costs basically.
@DiggingNorway
3 ай бұрын
I have followed the gold space since 2010 and you pointing to the dilution from acquisitions and finance costs is a good explanation as to why especially barick seems to lag so much in performance given the last years price action
@Value-Investing
3 ай бұрын
it seems they come after things happen
@theodoroseidler7072
6 ай бұрын
Very good video, Sven. I understand your perspective as a value investor and respect it.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
thanks, if you are a gold bug you don't like it, but that is life.
@theodoroseidler7072
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing I love hearing all arguments pro and con. Your analysis is very good. Thank you for the video!
@peterhead5728
6 ай бұрын
2018 you missed half the move in gold and miners then you were telling everyone to average down on Newmont and now miners seem to be making a rounded bottom you are finally out. Barrick was around $5 in 2016 now it's $15 which is 3x but it was as high as $30 which is 6x and plus 8 years of dividends. Miners are bottoming now.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
thanks for sharing!
@issenvan1050
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing Gold up, oil down, recession is imminent. Miners 🚀
@issenvan1050
6 ай бұрын
NEM is too big. Juniors are too risky. I focus on single-asset-producing mid-cap miners.
@Dr.Weed8
5 ай бұрын
@@issenvan1050oil has a positive correlation to gold. Why wouldn’t oil also act as protection against currency debasement? Also they need oil to mine gold. I like both but I’m more bullish on oil short term. Not advice. Gold shorts are closed. SPR needs to be refilled. 850mm barrels of oil.
@zintun3575
2 ай бұрын
Will be great to see a follow-up video. Gold is now 2300 and resting.
@AlessandroAnderson
6 ай бұрын
Thank you Sven, a really important video!
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Thanks
@gerardfa2856
5 ай бұрын
Hi @Sven, it's such an insightful clip. Your points are totally spot on as gold price has risen drastically since the day of your video. That makes me wonder, would it be wise to stock up gold by taking high percentage of the portfolio in 24?
@Value-Investing
5 ай бұрын
I don't know:-)
@Value-Investing
5 ай бұрын
impossible to know
@xxIFNTxx
6 ай бұрын
Hi sven, since the mining stocks have significantly underperformed gold, is there any bull thesis to miners other thab "timin the market" correctly for the cycle?
@paolovita1720
6 ай бұрын
Personally, I see the typical gold miner as an out-of-the-money call option: it has no intrinsic value over the long term, but has optionality value relative to some company-specific catalyst (acquisition, first pour of new mine, exploration success, etc.) or to sudden upside in the gold price. So yes, timing is essential here, and this space, like most commodities, is more a speculation than an investment.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
with gold and miners it is all about timing the cycle, looking at the risk and reward...
@JpresValknut
4 ай бұрын
A pretty conservative outlook if it were for the actual metal price and not the paper gold trading in the west
@RafitoMembroza
6 ай бұрын
This is one of your best videos. Good job, Sven.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Glad you think so!
@sacha7607
6 ай бұрын
Gold prices can be quite dramatic especially when there is a currency devaluation
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
depends on the currency :-)
@thetruth4829
6 ай бұрын
Good analysis, you got the main point which is that the gold mining sector is cyclical. I believe we have bottomed out
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
time will tell
@207j
3 ай бұрын
What are your thoughts about PHYS?
@frantisekfrantisek8996
6 ай бұрын
If rates go down this year and gold prices hold, it might not be so bad. The current NEM valuation is below historical averages. Reserves per share remained practically the same even after the massive increase in the number of shares.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
interesting perspective, thanks!
@TheWeeklyCommodity
6 ай бұрын
Be careful, gold and silver are in for a steep correction. Rapid gains like this simply can't hold... Buying gold or silver blindly right now is careless and reckless. HOLD - When gold drops again, go ahead and buy and same with silver. Were looking at under 80 oil for buy, under 23 for silver buy, under 2080 for gold buy and 1060 palladium for a sell.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
thanks for sharing
@praveenmj1
5 ай бұрын
Do an analysis of the books. THE FIAT STANDARD. BROKEN MONEY. THE BULLISH CASE FOR BITCOIN. THE BITCOIN STANDARD.
@benlin3203
6 ай бұрын
That is nothing compared to inflation.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
:-)
@Eli-vf7io
6 ай бұрын
Interesting analysis on the miners. I’m not sure I agree though. If gold trades on sentiment, ( as does the market in general ) then so do the miners. I’m also not sure how you came up with your probability targets for gold. What is this based on ? I’m not sure there is any objective way to come up with a projected target for gold into the future. ( with the exception of EWT maybe )Otherwise it’s just guess work no?
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
It is making scenarios based on the historical information I have. Then it is about seeing how the risk and reward fits one personally! But you are 100% correct, we can’t know the future
@jimhendrickson5553
6 ай бұрын
One thing I've noticed with miners is they have a tendency to obtain long term debt in the good years which really hurts price in the volatile periods.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
yes because invest in more production that isn't as profitable in downturns
@jimhendrickson5553
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing Yeah, alot of CAPEX in a gold mine.
@jackblack5962
6 ай бұрын
Thanks Sven for the video explaining the capital destruction by gold miners. I am 30 and I have 100% of my allocation in miners. If we value NVIDIA it will be extremely overvalued but prices keep going up. Gold will do that, sooner or later and the miners will benefit.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
thanks for sharing!
@tmoenner
6 ай бұрын
what about AEM or B2Gold, complete different issue.You picked the two miners not doing very well
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
of course, it depends on the miner!
@sunnysider6350
5 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing AEM doing relatively better in this regard dilution. Gold price moving up faster than dilution effect for awhile.
@woyen88
6 ай бұрын
Good timing as I was thinking about buying gold miners if the price dropped more!
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
:-)
@SchmickClub
2 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing i bet you wished you did. Gold minors are at historically low prices even though many have recently dobled in price. Buy the stocks no one else wants, don't wait until the boat has already sailed. Sven argument against minors not showing good value is all based on Miners being diluted. So what if they have been diluted by half. They are trading at ridiculously low multiples so already grossly undervalued.
@Eline_Meijer
6 ай бұрын
Thank you for the detailed video Sven.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Thanks for the comment!
@davidedeltoro4117
6 ай бұрын
Another brilliant video! Thanks Sven! I don't like Gold Miner Either!
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@NK-nx3qq
6 ай бұрын
Great video. I've went all in on mining stocks. At these low prices combined with the high prices of gold/silver I think it's a gift.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Thanks for sharing
@95tillinfinity23
5 ай бұрын
Get out now before a sell off.
@SchmickClub
2 ай бұрын
Gold was over 1900 briefly in 2011, it's really not done a lot since then. I'm an Elliot Wave analyst for 20 years and never seen a more bullish setup with gold for the next 4 years. there will be a crash like with any boom but the boom is only just started when it bottomed in 2022 and recently broke highs that were resistance for many years. When new bull rallies emerge they generally last 3 or 4 years. Gold Miners in my view will be the next .com with many miners providing in exces of 10 x returns. Wait until sentiment turns which is already starting to heppen and all the trend watchers see the trend emerging. They'll jump off the likes of bitcoin and tech stocks taht are way over valued. They don't care what it is they just don't want to miss a good trend.
@xromasik
6 ай бұрын
What about gold royalties?
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
it seems it is the better business model, but also pricy
@leverage2279
6 ай бұрын
You have the best value investing channel on youtube Sven! 😊 Will you ever make a video of an analysis on coal and and coal companies?
@sktigerarmy2863
4 ай бұрын
I found 2,500 shares at a dollar a share from 1967 from Carlin gold. It was no.6 issued Cleaning out my grandparents place after they passed. Is it worth anything?
@Dr.Weed8
5 ай бұрын
The gold short sellers closed out. That pushed it up a bit. The price of gold mining is going up and demand is high. The risk of short sellers coming back in could push it back to $1900. However gold is used is semiconductors. Tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold. Just saying maybe electronic demand is going up too. Just my option not financial advice to buy sell or hold. However I do personally own gold I bought around $1600 and I don’t plan on selling.
@99vehicles99
5 ай бұрын
B2Gold looks very interesting, especially in 2025 :) What do you think?
@SchmickClub
2 ай бұрын
You miss the fact that Gold Miners are the most undervalued sector and now with the price of Gold becoming highly profitable. Since the low in 2022 many Gold miners have doubled or trippled in value and Gold is only just getting started. It doesn't also touch on the phycology of trends and what happens when a trend starts emeging. If you look at all Gold Miners combined there is clearly bullish divergence. Gold companies are trading at extremely low multiples (even if they have been diluted) compared to say sexy tech stocks that could be 20X multiple higher. Disregard Gold Miners at these historically low prices at your own peril.
@Value-Investing
2 ай бұрын
thanks for sharing
@jchong416
6 ай бұрын
I inhereted a bunch of gold miner stocks from my dad about 4 years ago and they haven't even gone back up to their share prices back then
@ADKfreeman
6 ай бұрын
Honestly Im biased but if I were you I'd hold onto them for a couple years.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
2020 was the peak
@alexandervoronin5323
6 ай бұрын
Perfect timing, just one day before the gold rally!
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Thanks for sharing
@chhuntley5616
6 ай бұрын
With no exposure to precious metals would Platinum( at year lows) be a opportunity with gold at highs . Appreciate any feedback $Aus 47000 -1 Kg $Aus 42000 - buy back Seems a bit rich but if one went long?
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
it is related to the car industry, thus very cyclical
@chhuntley5616
6 ай бұрын
Thanks Sven for your time
@DontuseGoogleorWiki
5 ай бұрын
@@chhuntley5616 and also the spread if far greater - both in and out.. WoT in my book
@elrevesyelderecho
6 ай бұрын
10:36 governments print money. Companies increase shares. Nominal magic trick to increase "value" destroying real value
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
:-)
@tylermeis2926
6 ай бұрын
I told a friend recently about how the government's spending on net interest will skyrocket in the near future, which I learned from how you've showcased that JPM chart of the federal budget. He replied that it doesn't matter much because the US GDP is so huge that net interest payments will still be a small fraction of GDP. Do you think that's a valid argument? I don't really know how GDP interacts with the federal budget.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
interest payments went from 2% to 4% of GDP and will just get higher as those are growing faster than GDP. Tell your friend to take another look.
@tylermeis2926
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing who knows how much the interest payment will matter if it never gets above ~10% of GDP? I certainly don't. Thanks for the reply.
@gymwizio126
6 ай бұрын
Seems like there is a very simliar thing happening to bitcoin and bitcoin miners, thoughts?
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Not my cup of tea :-(
@kasparskokins963
5 ай бұрын
maybe replay on gold miners, up 25%, if gold keaps this level, earnings will be something else
@roberttaylor3594
6 ай бұрын
you did a show on Lundin gold a while ago. They have done ok in the last year, though very choppy, almost as if it is being manipulated by the market since the volume is so low.What is 'excess savings"? Sounds pretty subjective...
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
The extra money people have, that would not be there without pandemic
@paulchevrette481
6 ай бұрын
Hey sven great video what do you think about royalty companies? like FNV just to give an example.
@paulchevrette481
6 ай бұрын
Eh saw you cover it at the end lol sorry i didnt wait all the way.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
:-))
@wealthydetective1619
6 ай бұрын
At minute 8-9, you are comparing 2018 projections of GOLD, vs 2023-2024 of GOLD+COPPER..
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
it is both gold equivalent ounces
@wealthydetective1619
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investinggot it! Thanks for the clarification! Keep it up with the great work you're doing!
@Concojone5
6 ай бұрын
Right, AISC refers to sustaining the existing mine, it doesn't pay for future mines.
@nonexistent5030
6 ай бұрын
Mining is heavily dependent on interest rates and cost of mining equipment and labor. Just cus cost of gold goes up doesn't mean profits will explode as long as cost of doing business rises as fast revenue. Declining margins in rising revenues is a real risk in this space.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
it is also about capital allocation and correct timing, which miners seem to always get wrong
@vkolodrevskiy
6 ай бұрын
How is alibaba doing?
@trevorjones3530
6 ай бұрын
Ask Xi...he has my money and I will give him no more!😅
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Thanks for the question!
@johnmcquaid7524
6 ай бұрын
Thank-you for the video!
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
:-)
@christianlorenz843
6 ай бұрын
Thanks, Sven! Great episode. Any plans for a report on silver?
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
not until there is a recession. P.s. silver miners are even worse than gold
@christianlorenz843
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing Sure, I understand. Thanks again.
@JJ-ix4zr
6 ай бұрын
I know you dont approach on your channel into cripto , but can you make a video explaining what an etf is blackrock , ark ,grayscale launched a new etf on bitcoin .
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
They launch whatever they can get a fee on :-)
@mbg9650
6 ай бұрын
Do you follow gold/lumber ratio as an indicator for risk on/off market?
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
not really
@marinikc8780
6 ай бұрын
thx, that responds most of my questions regardind investing in gold companies! wanted to add them to my portfolio, but i don't see the value there; plus the intensive capital, at high rates...! how do you feel on other materials, like copper, iron, rare metals, etc? given the fact that NEM, GOLD Barrick also produce those! from Materials sector, i like FCX (for copper, especially) - do you think it's a good value at under 33$?
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
I like those but only in a recession
@Dr.Weed8
5 ай бұрын
If you’re buying gold you should hold oil too if you think currency will be debased.
@Value-Investing
5 ай бұрын
Currency is debased constantly, the hard part is to know at what speed and when! In addition to the value vs. Price of the supposed hedge!
@thehungergames8918
5 ай бұрын
Silver 🥈 is a great opportunity 😃🙏✊
@Value-Investing
5 ай бұрын
thanks for sharing
@andriiboik523
5 ай бұрын
Sven pls answer is it time now buy gold for long term investment?
@Value-Investing
5 ай бұрын
kzitem.info/news/bejne/sY-NrWWDiXt9ZaA
@andriiboik523
5 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing the problem is i have watched it yestarday, but still have question whether buy now or wait some correction?
@AdamHogan81
6 ай бұрын
Seabridge Gold $SA has a business model that actually does the opposite of what Barrick and Newmont do in regards to share dilution ect. One of the world's largest resources of gold, copper and silver,with a risk-reduced strategy to grow resources, and reserve ownership per share.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
thanks for sharing!
@ashtagging
6 ай бұрын
Hi Sven I would be very interested to know your thoughts on the Chinese ecommerce sector namely BABA/PDD/JD. BABA and JD seem to be trading at very low Price to FCF ratios compared with similar companies like Mercado & Amazon in other markets.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
thanks for suggesting
@SDM496
6 ай бұрын
Come what may, I always recommend everyone to keep 10% of their portfolio in Gold or metals. Even if you are not fond of metals for whatever reasons just keep some investments as insurance.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
the effectiveness of that insurance depends on the price paid!!
@SDM496
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing Considering the amount of money which has been printed in the last 5 yrs the price of gold is not overvalued.
@twisttwister8254
6 ай бұрын
I think u finally explained why gold miners are the worst investment ever...... unless u have perfect timing like a pro trader.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
those are not to hold for the long term for sure!
@leestringer
6 ай бұрын
Hey Sven, considering you're recent video on Albermarle, I'm wondering what you think of their recent 2 Billion dollar stock dilution.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
I don’t think about it! Other factors are more important as discussed
@themisspiliopoulos4609
6 ай бұрын
Silver??
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
silver is more used in industry and thus more affected by recessions while most producers just produce it as a by-product.
@BWater-yq3jx
6 ай бұрын
What do you think about the historical loaf of bread to gold ratio? i.e. 350 X (1kg) loaves = 1 ounce of gold. Currently, avg 500gm loaf in USA is $3.56 (According to Numbeo cost of living) So, 700 X that = $2492. Suggesting 15% upside atm.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
no idea, it could work, it couldn't. ...
@BWater-yq3jx
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing My thinking is that references like that serve as a kind of reality check, since gold has kept reasonably close to it over time.
@soullama7237
5 ай бұрын
Gold 10X on the way folks buckle up your seat belt. Still per ounce GOLD price is pretty low, load up at least one ounce.
@Value-Investing
5 ай бұрын
thanks for sharing
@Maximus_goldenretriever
5 ай бұрын
Brookmount gold..💸💰
@siemendhooghe5363
6 ай бұрын
Hey Sven, currently in Europe we are seeing an increased investing in military equipment with looming threats of war. I was reminded of the investor Livermore who invested in the steel industry during such times. I was wondering whether you could analyse the current European steel industry (which seems mid-priced)?
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
In case of war, you will not have to worry about you stocks
@andreandre1345
6 ай бұрын
gold and silver ETC to ride the next upcoming bull run!!!!
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Thanks for sharing
@luca3879
6 ай бұрын
Great video Sven, Gold miners are difficult to understand for a lot of people and you have done an awesome job. I would like to ask you a question, miners have huge reserve of minerals, for Gold miners mainly silver and Gold, theese reserves have an effect on the value of theese companies?
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
those are still in the ground, there is a cost of mining those and it takes years, so it all depends on the price of those and cash flows coming from that!
@luca3879
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing so when they said that "the reserve increase to 95 million ounce" it's all on paper, they don't have material reserve of Gold
@peterjohn5834
6 ай бұрын
Superb presentation thanks
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@genadiyankov
5 ай бұрын
You should take a look at gold royalty companies. Especially Sandstorm Gold $SAND
@Value-Investing
5 ай бұрын
thanks for suggesting
@dassa0069
6 ай бұрын
Gold is the only money you can trust. When the Recession really takes hold, what are you going to do with copper? Gold miners have cleaned up their balance sheets. They have healthy cash flows. You're buying pieces of businesses not lottery tickets.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
depends on the price of gold
@dassa0069
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing I have been buying since the 60s@ $30/ounce.
@GillAgainsIsland12
4 ай бұрын
That's 6 years out. Way too conservative. It will do it within half that time. The world is changing fast.
@Value-Investing
4 ай бұрын
thanks for sharing
@SDM496
6 ай бұрын
Good one Sven!
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@sandysamith7218
6 ай бұрын
Another great video. I dropped AEM and take small position in FNV. I wonder the geography of your audience exposure?
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
global
@kqh123
5 ай бұрын
You said gold went from $1000 to $2000 and showed a chart from 2016 to 2024 but the chart you showed for the miners were from only 2020 to 2024
@Value-Investing
5 ай бұрын
yes, miners went up initially but didn't hold
@kqh123
5 ай бұрын
Yes, miners went up from 2016 to 2020, and down from 2020 to 2024
@hydranth
6 ай бұрын
If you are right and there is 40 % chance of 5000 gold, 40 % of 2500 and 20 % of 1500 gold, you still have combined result of 3300 USD gold in 2030...
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Yes, but maybe just beats inflation by then
@jmc8076
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing Some say drawn out deflation coming 2-3 yrs. Plus some big banks/ers ‘lost decade’ of flat earnings. Global excl key EMs due to certain factors. We’ll see.
@Sherif8928
6 ай бұрын
King of mining , thanks for the video
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
My pleasure
@user-qt6yl2ne2z
6 ай бұрын
How does it look with lithium stocks ? (ALB)
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
here you go: kzitem.info/news/bejne/l46ssIF8iXqafaA
@sheanathan3566
6 ай бұрын
Great analysis
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
thanks!
@prygler
6 ай бұрын
Gold is historic cheap relative to the stock market. It will go up in the recession with alot of interest cuts
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
could happen!
@tacocruiser4238
6 ай бұрын
The solution is to buy shares of small-cap miners and explorers (like Dolly Varden Silver) and make massive profits when these small companies are bought out by the large-cap miners. Large miners like Newmont and Barrick Gold making these stupid acquisitions can be a good or bad thing depending on which side of the transaction you are on. Just be on the winning side!
@ADKfreeman
6 ай бұрын
Or they can go to zero after bankruptcy.
@tacocruiser4238
6 ай бұрын
@@ADKfreeman Don't invest money that you are not ok with losing. This applies to any of these miners. Vast majority of miners (both big and small) are losing money right now. Also, the whole purpose of explorers is to get acquired by miners. They are not supposed to make profits from operations. The process of mining gold/silver involves exploring, developing, and operating the mine. You need to invest in all three phases.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
if they are not acquired you go to zero
@ADKfreeman
6 ай бұрын
@@tacocruiser4238 Im heavily invested in miners and am capable of absorbing significant loses without it affecting my daily operations. Just the reality of JRs is a real with thin markets, no operating margins and shady management.
@SzymonStas
6 ай бұрын
So what you’re saying is that we should YOLO everything into high cost junior producers?
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
No, I did not say that, I said that if one must invest in miners, it is proper to analyze one by one and make one's own basket.
@SzymonStas
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing I know, I was making a joke. Nobody in their right mind would suggest going all in on an extremely risky mining investment hahaha! 😁
@christianlorenz843
6 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
Thank YOU!
@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__
6 ай бұрын
I gotta admit, with the insanity of central bank printing/deficits and wars without end, i expected at least a short time of gold panic buying by now.
@shsal110
6 ай бұрын
Those narratives will always have a receptive audience (i.e., people looking for confirmation of previously held opinions). But long term investors will benefit more from an optimistic perspective and taking a balanced view of things
@shsal110
6 ай бұрын
One further addition, BTC/crypto also scratch the same itch that gold bugs have always had, thereby diluting the demand for gold
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
maybe things will switch, that is the risk, gold isn't producing anything
@whiskey_tango_foxtrot__
6 ай бұрын
Many gold stocks are also paying a very nice dividend now.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
thanks for sharing!
@chrisapplebach4756
6 ай бұрын
Best Channel On KZitem!!!
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
thanks!
@_mklein
6 ай бұрын
Hi Sven, please review VALE - Brazilian mining Thanks 🙏
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
too early for iron, wait for it below $60
@d3ly51d
6 ай бұрын
Very eye opening analysis Sven. Thank you. (I'm going all in on Carlin mine!)
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
:-))))
@Car-guy307
6 ай бұрын
Invest with the assumption that the $ goes to near zero over the next 50 years
@TheDarkd3ath
5 ай бұрын
What about showcase minerals
@miellamborghini7003
6 ай бұрын
Carlin is on of the best mines 😂😂
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
just keeps on giving...
@dr.science9505
2 ай бұрын
By 2030 8000 minimum.
@Value-Investing
2 ай бұрын
everything is possible!
@twisttwister8254
6 ай бұрын
Excellent 🎉
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
thnks!
@user-ei8zn6rp6i
6 ай бұрын
Gold for me is not an "investment", it is the ultimate airbag when the fiat system explodes or whatever. An investment delivers FCF so I am lost why you would even try to give it a % of pricing targets? One thing is clear FED balance sheet will be much bigger in 2030.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
correct, balance sheet bigger in 2030
@twisttwister8254
6 ай бұрын
Gold is an insurance policy...it will save u when fiat collapses...which was suppose to happen 40 years ago or so according to gold experts, other than that...buy the stock indexes. Gold has always been my worse investment.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
:-)) thanks for sharing!
@gzme
6 ай бұрын
Hi @sven I just came back to thinking about this. I think you really need to look at the long term production profile of these acquisition. Eg, newmont bought newcrest not for adding a big % to production next year, but because newcrest mines have a life out 25 years, where as newmont existing mines I think are all done in the next decade. So these acquisition are maybe much more about long term production maintenance than next year production boost
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
this is because Newmont is incompetent and therefore they need to dilute shareholders by 40% just to stay in business
@gzme
6 ай бұрын
@@Value-Investing perhaps, or perhaps not. The future is unknowable and it could turn out to be a good deal. If newmont would be pretty low production in 8 years without the deal, then the future cash flows and optionality don't look great. With 25 years of decent production added, you could argue it's a good deal but you'd need to discount future production, margin, and time value of money - all of which would be estimates. Newmont without any m&a certainly looked a bad business. In a couple of years this could look a good deal
@Bobby.Kristensen
6 ай бұрын
With all money printing I think it is insane to not own any gold at all, it doesn't grow or give any yield so I wouldn't have much.
@Value-Investing
6 ай бұрын
there are other options that produce something, like houses...
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