It's crazy how the mainstream has mostly buried its head in the sand on these issues when they are so much more pressing than our carbon footprint.
@auslegungssache
2 ай бұрын
both are pressing lol
@ИвайлоСтоянов-б3м
2 ай бұрын
It's intentional, they even said that you shouldn't have children to reduce carbon footprint.
@Brakka86
2 ай бұрын
They only talk about what the owners allow.
@Buorgenhaeren
2 ай бұрын
In reality both are self resolving problems, lower population means less global warming and only the fittest reproductively will pass on their genes
@marusdod3685
2 ай бұрын
@@ИвайлоСтоянов-б3м we shouldn't have any children to save the planet, but also let's give more aid to african countries to be our concubines
@theinnerlight8016
2 ай бұрын
Just wanted to say, I've been watching your channel for many month now and your videos never disappoint! Love to see your point of view on pretty much any topic. Keep up the good work and best wishes from your German neighbor! 🖖
@GermanTaffer
2 ай бұрын
Ja und man sieht klar die Effekte auf unsere Gesellschaft, ohne dass der Grund klar ausgesprochen wird. Speziell Südkorea sieht wirklich beängstigend aus.
@kaiserbauch9092
14 күн бұрын
Thank you very much!!
@carkawalakhatulistiwa
2 ай бұрын
There are 335 million people living in the United States vs. 280 million people in Indonesia. But because life expectancy in Indonesia is 10 years lower than the United States if seen using the pyramid Population. The number of people in each generation is the same.
@dandankokorohikareteku2620
2 ай бұрын
@@carkawalakhatulistiwa Indonesians are tiny people while Americans taller bigger
@seneca983
2 ай бұрын
@@dandankokorohikareteku2620 And also fatter.
@baklazha
2 ай бұрын
@@dandankokorohikareteku2620how is it relevant tho?
@JohnDorian-j7x
2 ай бұрын
@@baklazha Is he wrong though? Way to attack him instead of his argument, typical insert people
@baklazha
2 ай бұрын
@@JohnDorian-j7xwhat?? I asked how is it relevant because height has nothing to do with the topic bruh
@TurtleChad1
2 ай бұрын
The same people who say that this won't happen are the same people who thought that the Roman Empire would never fall.
@traumvonhaiti
2 ай бұрын
Roman Empire found a way to absorb all the migrants into it and transform itself multiple times, thus surving through millenea: Roman Empire proper, Eastern Roman Empire, Ottoman Empire.
@CultureCrossed64
2 ай бұрын
@traumvonhaiti no. The ottoman empire is not rome.
@traumvonhaiti
2 ай бұрын
@@CultureCrossed64 I knew you'd say it. Ottoman Empire of the 15th century was just the rebranding of the old Byzantine Empire (Eastern Roman Empire). And those Greeks & Armenians never really left Constantinople until the 20th century.
@pharisaeus6493
2 ай бұрын
@@traumvonhaiti yeah sure dude changing all the elites, the culture and the religion in one fell swoop is just a "rebranding"
@CultureCrossed64
2 ай бұрын
@traumvonhaiti The only people who think the Ottomans were an extension of the Byzantines are those trying to sell something. Same with all the other "Romes" over the last thousand years
@gregvanpaassen
2 ай бұрын
Demographics is life and death for cultures and countries. How can it be boring??
@seneca983
2 ай бұрын
It's subjective. Different people are interested in different things.
@Potion_Seller99
2 ай бұрын
Israels example shows that fertility decline can be countered by cultural means, and is by no means inevitable for every developed country.
@yazovgaming
2 ай бұрын
Nah the reason is that the ✡️ want Israel with high Fertility and want Europe with low Fertility for an Agenda.
@julius43461
2 ай бұрын
But Israel never developed the symptoms that the west did. There is no way in hell that Israelis are burning their flags and talking about deconstructing the system, tearing everything down because everything is racist etc.
@xfom4008
2 ай бұрын
Israel also has a great economy and has social programs and an external threat to worry about at all times. Israel isn't fucking poor, its TFR doesn't defy economics. It defies western culture, but not economics.
@jostnamane3951
2 ай бұрын
There are more examples: Oman, French Guiana, Mayotte, Reunion, Martinique, etc. Interestingly enough, most of these are not countries but French overseas departments. Edit: Oh, I forgot Kazakhstan.
@chico9805
2 ай бұрын
Kazakhstan is an even better example, considering their rate is more evenly distributed and not based on a constant existential threat.
@jostnamane3951
2 ай бұрын
According to the latest 2024 WPP revision announced on July 12, 2024. Pakistan will have around 511 million people by 2100, compared to 248 million people in 2023 and China will shrink to just around 633 million people in 2100 from 1.421 billion people in 2023. Imagine how much the world will change just by looking at this metric.
@MykhailoArmorer
2 ай бұрын
If food supply allows this for Pakistan. Just google among of food it imports now, amount of food it produces domestically (using import energy) and imagine how it would look like when international trade happens to went south... I think this is not taken in consideration on population predictions.
@izayaorihara7059
2 ай бұрын
@@MykhailoArmorerwhy would they need to import food when they export their excess people; they do so already.
@MykhailoArmorer
2 ай бұрын
@@izayaorihara7059 As for my understanding, scale is a problem, and secondly, you still need food to be produced and transported to whenever this surplus population goes. I highly doubt it will populate Ukraine waist land and start highly productive agricultural there, even not taking in consideration that highly productive modern agriculture based on fossil fuels equipment, fossil carbohydrate depending chemistry and highly educated workforce with modern science and technology. Where you can squeeze uneducated mass of people in this equation?
@deaththekid3998
2 ай бұрын
Pakistan will have a civil war long before that.
@izayaorihara7059
2 ай бұрын
@@MykhailoArmorer we (the west) send them annually combined billions of material and financial aid. As long as this happens your point won't be a problem. And as these countries aren't "Sicher Herkunftsländer" they're seen as refugees in Europe and are there, unproductive. As has been the case for the last 20 years.
@Apsolution1
2 ай бұрын
Did anyone else thought video will be how to survive in world after and during population collapse 😂
@jostnamane3951
2 ай бұрын
For that, you have to look at the current scenario as if we are living in the times of Noah.
@Apsolution1
2 ай бұрын
@@jostnamane3951 my plan was to get a gun and go live in the rural secluded area near forest to live off grid , get solar panels , learn to grow your food ,build a well etc... fields for and with rural housing are pretty cheap since everyone wants to go in cities
@laf1993
2 ай бұрын
Run to the woods, build a cabin, live there for the rest of your life and do not make contact with the outside world ever again. That's how you survive.
@apustajachileno
2 ай бұрын
@@Apsolution1 quinoa, amaranth and potato are highly caloric food
@LondonMoneyCashEnterprise
2 ай бұрын
The worlds not gonna end relax guys
@StarMaster470
2 ай бұрын
Hi! If you're reading this, have a great day!
@EveryCarpet
2 ай бұрын
Thank you, you too!
@desertfox55
2 ай бұрын
you too or to idk
@OrixDalgrath
2 ай бұрын
Thanks, have a great day too
@trashcontent9637
2 ай бұрын
U2 m8
@xxgaming_generation_2156
2 ай бұрын
Have a totally nice day!
@castle_45
2 ай бұрын
I was on the "Oh, no total collapse" train for some time but I changed my mind. The biggest issue is immigration. Africa and South East nations have way too many people (thanks to western aid post WW II especially) and developed countries can't and should not get into a breeding contest with these nations. Your state should protect YOU and your people. We live in a post-industrial and mostly post-large scale war era. We simply do not NEED gigantic populations anymore. Most office jobs are basically UBI right now. The service economy is the biggest scam today. Covid showed that societies won't collapse if these people don't work. We separated essential and non-essential work. If work was the actual issue, we would talk about guest workers and not endless replacement migration around the world. Birth rates will eventually stabilize but mass immigration will only lead to lower birth rates (studies are out on this) and a worldwide slumification. Have you ever been to Cairo or similar huge overcrowded cities? It is suffocating and nothing great will ever come out of those living conditions. I think the only way out is to accept controlled shrinking (~TFR 1.5) and more investments in automation. The old industry economy is simply DEAD and you see it with migrants or refugees who are unemployed for years and get paid to breed with your money.
@vos2693
2 ай бұрын
If. If birth rates will eventually stabilize.
@castle_45
2 ай бұрын
@@vos2693 You think it will just go to zero? We could figure out how population levels actually fluctuate mid/long term if governments stop endless third world migration which impacts birth rates, wages, housing etc. No developed nation will start having third world TFR levels, no matter how trad they become. It just won't happen. Populations will shrink eventually everywhere. Peak world population projections have changed a lot. It’s gonna end earlier than exptected. Mass migration just extends the decline process and destroys socities.
@vos2693
2 ай бұрын
@@castle_45 yes, it will. You know how it goes with migration, going down to zero suddenly (due to genocide). And if you don't - ask natives of America and Australia, might as well ask Sumerians, Hittites, Sarmatians and Cimmerians.
@antiglassesgang
2 ай бұрын
Finally someone understand that we shouldn't look at people by religion and race and also use the automatisation for everyone to have a desent life. Einstein was saying that long time ago when he was arguing that democratic socialism is the future.
@bingchilling4717
2 ай бұрын
@@vos2693even hitties still have births as of today. We just dont call them hitties anymore we call them Turks
@traumvonhaiti
2 ай бұрын
Throughout centuries populations grew and shrank. The present day shrinking just means the ways of living, the culture, the ideas of the Western societies just aren't capable of propelling them forward. The West is in need of a serious overhaul. Like the Roman Empire in the 5th and 15th centuries.
@mysterioanonymous3206
2 ай бұрын
Western societies? The worst off, Taiwan, China and Japan are not western. And birth rates are plummeting from African to Muslim to Western nations, so it's got absolutely nothing to do with "western ideas". What an absolute nonsense.
@malachai1687
2 ай бұрын
All people's fertility numbers are falling across the world.
@effexon
2 ай бұрын
wait, 15th century roman empire?
@crusader2112
2 ай бұрын
@@effexonEastern Rome/Byzantium.
@synthopia2
2 ай бұрын
500 to 1500 weren't good years tbh.
@0ld_Scratch
2 ай бұрын
Will you do a video on the consequences of low birthrates and high migration, but in the context of shifting from a homogeneous to a heterogeneous society? And maybe compare countires that were already somewhat heterogeneous like the US in comparison to for example Sweden. Edit: also wanted to add that I really love your videos and I am nearly done with all of them now (two left to watch) and I try to absorb as much of the information as possible (like a sponge)!
@bruceyawen6160
2 ай бұрын
Just watch any of his videos about a western european country. They all have exactly the same problems, in fact exactly what you mentioned
@Jgjbkhh
2 ай бұрын
As a swede I can tell you, the consequenses are chaos and societal decline.
@hugehunter121
2 ай бұрын
You miss mentioning Emannuel Todd 😂
@traumvonhaiti
2 ай бұрын
The real issue at hand when it comes to birth rates/reproduction are the beliefs/value system of the population. The TFR number is just a reflection of it. If having children/family in that value system are not among the top priorities, they simply become secondary or even tertiary priorities in life of the majority of the population.
@julius43461
2 ай бұрын
Absolutely. There has to be a strong social pressure to have children, otherwise too many people will choose not to have them. You must be seen as a loser and a failure if you have less than 3 kids. Not saying that is ideal, but there is no other way to sustain the civilization, apart from coming up with some sci fi solutions.
@xfom4008
2 ай бұрын
Yes, you can sacrifice everything to make as money kids as possible, but you should never expect this to happen. You can expect it to happen more or less in different countries, but en masse you need the correct conditions more than the values. Some groups will value kids more, but almost none can be expected to act like Ultra Orthodox jews - it isn't happening.
@traumvonhaiti
2 ай бұрын
@@xfom4008 Correct conditions? 100 years ago the average European's living standards were 7x poorer than today. And yet they procreated.
@pablogarcia304
2 ай бұрын
No population can afford procreation being secondary or tertiary for long though.
@xfom4008
2 ай бұрын
@@traumvonhaiti They had high infant mortality rates, so not really. Their population basically was stagnant. High TFR means nothing without accounting for mortality. It only exploded after the advent of a lot of modern technology allowing for health, safety and resources needed. The reality is that the modern world basically created conditions where humans are very much plugged in to the totality of markets and governments to survive and even procreate, which means bad policy will lead to people stopping reproducing if it all doesn't run smoothly. If it does run smoothly, you can support an absolute shitton of very prosperous people of course, but it has to run properly or you lose millions in decades. So don't fuck up your governments and institutions and culture and you will grow big and then cruise there while being very prosperous. The issue is that we are mostly fucking it up.
@user-wk5ub3zf2j
2 ай бұрын
Your channel is amazing
@512TheWolf512
2 ай бұрын
can you imagine us losing 6 billion humans? I can't even imagine how the world would look, especially outside of cities
@jameshowardwilliamson5043
2 ай бұрын
That was the world in early 20th centuru when human was 2 billions
@omeryehezkely3096
2 ай бұрын
@@jameshowardwilliamson5043 No! If we do get back to 2B it won't look anywhere similar to early 20th century. I'm not refering to the technology gap, but to the age distribution. In such scenario, streets are going to be empty and the smell of death will be everywhere. There are going to be cities to which nobody will agree to enter.
@WilliamSantos-cv8rr
2 ай бұрын
LOL I had written 6000 words for a paper I was planning to turn into a video like yours. Btw your video is great. I am following you since you had like 150 followers and quality is going up and the content continues to be really precise. I have to say that you might have to do a second part of this video to go in depth into some issues. One of them is that actually the TFR is calculated differently by different countries (some in Africa are complete estimations from UN). Thus when you add the factor that it is actually an projection the number can not be used as a precise tool for big countries, because they have to many parallax errors. I would guess only 1/4 of nations have reliable data for such thing. And as you said every single census coming up in the last two decades showed a smaller population then the previous projected one. I have to say that I have an issue with a single statement in the video, or a few nuances. I calculated the possibility of a TFR being the replacement rate for CANADA (the only developed country with enough reliable available data I found) and for me their replacement rate should be 2.13-2.14. And that happens because for the period of the data I used the average first birth of women was already happening at nearly 30 years old, and definitely there will be a noticeable amount of deaths of women before they could bear any children. Also, if we think in a long run like 30 years we have to account female x male ratio. And the Canadian one is 105.4 males to 100 females. In India is something like 125 males to 100 females.
@WilliamSantos-cv8rr
2 ай бұрын
Other issues regarding the TFR are that in many countries the number of children born to under 15 yo girls are not neglectable. In my country, Brazil, that is half developed per say, we have 0.65% of births coming from girls under 15 yo. In other countries in Latin America, Africa and South Asia this number is definitely higher. And Also, we can think that with Artificial insemination and new treatments many women will start having births above the 45 years old.
@WilliamSantos-cv8rr
2 ай бұрын
I developed a new method for measure that points the stability of a country and needs less data than the more complexes ones. I would like to present in a video later on. I will call it the triangle of stability.
@luccabellag5443
2 ай бұрын
literally one of the best demographics youtuber out there
@EcclesiastesLiker-py5ts
2 ай бұрын
There is so much that people just don't know. I would never have known all this if not for a handful of KZitemrs.
@EcclesiastesLiker-py5ts
2 ай бұрын
Thank you for this insightful channel.
@SuperSlik50
2 ай бұрын
The large percentage of subsaharan birthrates portend a dark age of unfathomable collapse by the middle of the 22nd century
@juan-ko5hz
2 ай бұрын
I think that's why they're pushing the de growth of traditional western countries but also allowing many countries in Eastern Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, the better part of Africa, and the Caribbean to develop, something which they never allowed before. It's seems like they want to create many "attractive" places for migrants so they can spread the Africans throughout the world instead of all going only to their traditional western countries
@scottanos9981
2 ай бұрын
Especially if foreign aid stops being sent to those countries to support populations larger than they would otherwise be able to sustain alone
@bullethead1953
2 ай бұрын
Or globalisation which facilities trade of things like fertiliser, used to massively increase crop yields.
@marko1263
2 ай бұрын
It's the supreme historical irony that this will be the final result of european colonialist expansion. Downfall of whites and the rise of blacks
@stivimai5876
2 ай бұрын
@@scottanos9981 Aid is overated it gets stolen by politicians we africans will have children because we are tribal and we have clans some places in Africa they listen to the tribal leader more than the president even if all aid stop today Africa wil still have more fertility rate that Europe it about culture. Europeans have everything but they still dont want children.
@RobinHood..
2 ай бұрын
See the situation in the old Yugoslavia; that is the future of western European countries.. balkanization and separation.. once the people realize that the government is using their taxes to work against them..
@effexon
2 ай бұрын
wait, so it wasnt religious annoying neighbors gone too far with guns fighting everyone? that makes sense, taxmoney goes to some other city, your town is poor.... very familiar story.
@Anton43218
2 ай бұрын
Brother, Romanians already know that the government lives off their takes like the landowners live lavishly off the serf's mandatory labour. Yet nobody does anything. Verdict: Nothing ever happens.
@baguettedestroyer4145
2 ай бұрын
@@effexonwho serbs u Mean
@effexon
2 ай бұрын
@@baguettedestroyer4145 no idea who started it but yes serbs are among most stubborn even now. they are small nation now and that is good.
@karjolaking4586
2 ай бұрын
Great video, hopefully more people will understand demographics now.
@AskTorin
2 ай бұрын
Thank you so much for spreading knowledge about this fundamental aspect of life. Love your channel, hope you have a great summer
@boredhuman9289
2 ай бұрын
Japan's way looks way better than replacement one. Chill rich elders, no crime, monoculture. What a shame most of EU does not follow.
@billusher2265
2 ай бұрын
>Since 2013, the number of foreign workers in Japan has set records annually, reaching 2.05 million in October, a rise of more than 40 percent since 2018
@CultureCrossed64
2 ай бұрын
@billusher2265 you know that's about 1.5-2% of their population right?
@jansoltes971
2 ай бұрын
@@billusher2265 Still OK. The Japanese officials choose who will or will not be allowed to enter and stay in the country. In the EU however, the story is entirely different - it´s utter chaos. Anybody can come in and ask for free money and housing. This is a huge pull-factor attracting a certain sort of people.
@danbaltic9678
2 ай бұрын
They are making easier and easier to come each year. Now just 2%, it's throughout the country. People used to say Eastern Europe is not a place of mass migration. In my country Lithuania foreign percentage rose from 1% to 10% in just 5 years.
@winterskiU
2 ай бұрын
You don't know what you are talking about, Japan's leader is literally talking about civilisational collapse, but because they don't have much immigration it's okay.
@kubixus
2 ай бұрын
Your videos never fail to make me depressed.
@curiousponderings
2 ай бұрын
I think a good video to try is to assist with how to traverse a crashing population "meta"
@Ian-yd9tl
2 ай бұрын
Gain skills in trades like carpentry among others, thus you can maintain your own household and have an in demand skill. Learn how to grow food, fish, hunt, use firearms. Seek familial and social connections, seek marriage and kids. Basically seek a social and familial network of folks to help support each other. Seek to learn as many hands on skills as you can. If you raise children raise em well with love and kindness. Don't expect your state to have any capacity to care for you. Don't assume the current order of things will last, thus prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
@MattY-ed1ep
2 ай бұрын
Find a country that is young, relatively LCOL as a retirement location, given current fertility trends scarcity of labor almost certainly means that anybody but the richest among us would be unable to afford Healthcare in our own countries when older. Malaysia MM2H and/or Thai equivalents seem to be good options at this moment but not much clarity moving forward.
@louisjwiese5515
2 ай бұрын
1st world western countries use birth control way more than others. Studies show that women that do not ovulate (i.e. for example when on birth control) also pick more feminine men. But generally, due to birth control, you will obviously have lower amounts of people having kids. And naturally modern feminists also advocate against being a mother. So generally, 1st world western nations will have low population growth, if at all.
@julius43461
2 ай бұрын
Nah, birth control barely does anything really. Over here in the Balkans, we start "hooking up" very early(14, 15), and almost no one uses condoms or birth control. Yet, we have lower population growth than western countries. It is lack of religion and the rise of hedonism. We all prioritize material possessions over having children, which I am not saying is wrong per se, but it is the most important factor for why birth rates are low. You could quadruple our disposable income over night, and we would still have low birth rates, maybe lower, as people would have even more to lose by having those time sucking babies. Unless we can figure out a sci fi solution, like radical life extension, than patriarchy is the only way to keep the population stable or growing.
@lisa6356
2 ай бұрын
Are you sure it's not because of the economy, healthcare bill that will send you into debt, overpriced housing, little to no investment in schools, and no social safety net for parents? I could go on but please blame it on feminism. Women's bodies are not for men's economic prosperity. You have never lived in a third-world country before, and you have no idea what it's like. A lot of these women don't want to have 8,9,10 kids. They are doing it because their husbands want it. 90% of the time many of these men cannot even provide for the kids. Also, do you know how much of a burden it is for family members living abroad to send money while struggling to make ends meet because Aham cannot stop impregnating his wife? But of course, all you see is third-world women having children and you said how amazing.
@alexanderleuchte5132
2 ай бұрын
"In the world I see - you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." - Tyler Durden
@WallGon
2 ай бұрын
Thank you for this vid and all the previous, very interesting topic!
@SyedWadud-n6p
2 ай бұрын
Next Episode about Georgia(Country).
@AverageEstonian
2 ай бұрын
This was informative thank you making this video sir.
@Some.Paleshuk
2 ай бұрын
I thought you’re going to analyze here different strategies how to get advantage of this demographic trend😸
@boatygatling4782
2 ай бұрын
thank you peter zeihan
@ferminromero2602
2 ай бұрын
Well done! Worthy of college credit. Thanks for posting this video.
@TheFactsMan
2 ай бұрын
Great Video!
@alcusaco
2 ай бұрын
You should do a video on what you think the effects of the population collapse and aging will be, both positive and negative scenarios. Maybe in a 2 on 2 debate with a couple famous public intellectuals who think the collapse will be good for most. Maybe you could debate someone who thinks the current social structures will be completely reformed to be much better.
@vladyslavushakov113
2 ай бұрын
Thank you my friend Now I can rewatch all of your videos again with this new knowledge
@Youcanatme
2 ай бұрын
under 2.1 doesn't have to increase median age if you have been in this category for a while you can actually see decreases in median age if the birth rate rises from 0.8 to 1.6 for example. Time stamp: around 8:00
@RealHufflepuff
2 ай бұрын
Ive never been so attracted to someone from czechia before
@TheLeper2001
2 ай бұрын
Europe for Europeans
@HuWhiteDeath
2 ай бұрын
water is wet, grass is green, the sky is blue.
@fanOmry
2 ай бұрын
The Migrants would not matter if Europeans had a consistent above replacement birthrate. other than the Baby boom, they didn't have such in well over a hundred years.
@izayaorihara7059
2 ай бұрын
@@HuWhiteDeath But Europe is not for yue ~
@Rabbi-Jill-kews
2 ай бұрын
Nah Europe for the Jews
@greatwolf5372
2 ай бұрын
What Europeans? You people don't breed anymore.
@muratbayraktar5035
2 ай бұрын
Do a video on what may happen after the coming collapse. Like which countries would get out first, which countries would be screwed.
@awsambdaman
2 ай бұрын
Channel called “based camp” talks about these scenarios often
@craigs_8749
2 ай бұрын
please do a video on the demographics of the baltics🙏🙏🙏🙏
@feliz2892
2 ай бұрын
I love the way he says the word country.
@cazwalt9013
2 ай бұрын
Wait..... Emmanuel Todd wasn't mentioned!!!! 😮
@epicnesssss
2 ай бұрын
I received a Kamala Harris ad before turning on the video lol.
@SurrogateActivities
2 ай бұрын
Am I the only one visualizing chudjak lecturing this
@bruceyawen6160
2 ай бұрын
Chudjack did his homework to say the least
@ultimaetsolder
2 ай бұрын
Population replacement.
@carkawalakhatulistiwa
2 ай бұрын
Not for jepang, south Korea, China and Taiwan
@prohacker5086
2 ай бұрын
@carkawalakhatulistiwa for how long will that be the case? The pressure is only increasing
@ultimaetsolder
2 ай бұрын
For Canada and Europe
@Jamespwickstromw
2 ай бұрын
a coffee coloured mixed multitude
@fedeleorlando1592
2 ай бұрын
you could make a video on the fact that the demographic data in China are false, there are some studies where they say the Chinese population is less than a billion
@WilliamSantos-cv8rr
2 ай бұрын
Reliable investigations point a numer between 1.2-1.3 billion. But they are shrinking since 2010-2012.
@Luke-mr4ew
2 ай бұрын
16:11 What equation did you use to convert TFR into population size after a century? My back of the envelope (TFR/2.1)^(time/fertility_interval) is much more pesimistic. At TFR 1.8 I get a population at 64% size after 1 century, with a fertility_interval of 35 years. Bumping this up to 49 only improves to 73%. Obviously I'm doing something far too basic, but am interested to k ow how you convert between the two
@Sokrabiades
Ай бұрын
I had thought that the demographic transition had never been demonstrated empirically, except for Mexico, despite how intuitive it is.
@ramonluque1850
2 ай бұрын
Simply great
@anotherstockcivic
2 ай бұрын
I wonder if, considering the unprecedented nature of this population crisis, our era will be understood by demographic shifts in history textbooks
@lehmannds
2 ай бұрын
Hey great work There is a mistake in the video the fertility rate is calculated for each age separately and then added up so it doesn't make any difference if you added to the calculation the 50 year olds. You calculate the average number of children for 20 year olds say 0.1 children and of 21 yo 22 ,23 etc. then you add up all these numbers. So if 20 age groups have 0.1 average number of children in that year it would add up to 2. If you added age groups with an average of 0 children it wouldn't change anything
@kaiserbauch9092
2 ай бұрын
Thanks for that, I edited the part out of the video
@SeanMichaels-fi8oe
14 күн бұрын
Unusual take: If your standard of living is getting lower, deciding not to have children is economically bad in the long run.
@_Safety_Third_
2 ай бұрын
25:00 Life in Russia was so hard they got to female surplus at about 9 or 10 years old 🪦
@doer-knower
2 ай бұрын
Age pyramids shown as dynamic (like a GIF) helps the average viewer, in my opinion. You did this, in this video! 😊 I'd like to know if it's possible and feasible (and how much work it is) to make a dynamic age pyramid projecting itself into the future one lifespan ahead. How much effort is that to do? ...and where do I send my financial contribution?
@meshuga27
2 ай бұрын
Solution to low fertility is simple and beneficial in many ways - discourage ppl from working. They will focus on having a life and babies. Unfortunately, AI won't change it overnight.
@trevdestroyer8209
2 ай бұрын
Taking care of a young child is work
@FayotSonic
2 ай бұрын
Way ahead !
@marko1263
2 ай бұрын
Thoughts on the new U.N demographic projections, optimistic or not?
@jostnamane3951
2 ай бұрын
Optimistic for some regions, and pessimistic for others. It's a boom or doom scenario.
@WilliamSantos-cv8rr
2 ай бұрын
@@jostnamane3951 It is way too optimistic for both scenarios
@Paul_Atreides
2 ай бұрын
It’s pretty good. It’s how i predicted it would go. Declining and then eventually stagnating and creating stable populations like during medieval Europe
@nicksallnow-smith7585
2 ай бұрын
Just one further angle on demographic momentum. If the median age is as low as 20, not only are there very few old people, but there are many children who are not yet in the childbearing age range. Even if the median age begins to rise, the numbers of childbearing age will get larger and larger for decades.
@PowerSimplified1871
2 ай бұрын
Having children in older age can solve fertility rate.
@alexanderleuchte5132
2 ай бұрын
More late pregnancy autistic offspring...
@jirislavicek9954
2 ай бұрын
Having children (fullstop) can solve the fertility rate!
@bruceyawen6160
2 ай бұрын
Its risky though - having children at high age (if it happens at all), drastically increases the chance of the kid beeing born with disabilities
@PowerSimplified1871
2 ай бұрын
@@bruceyawen6160 Maybe before the 19th century. But that is not the case today.
@electricpaper269
2 ай бұрын
China’s fertility rate doesn’t imply the economic collapse people think it does. They will simply import a bunch of cheap labor, and segregate them to not make anyone angry, just like the Gulf states.
@derek4412
2 ай бұрын
From where? They would need 600 million people (two Indonesias). China has been a net exporter of people for 3000 years. No one is trying to move into China, let alone the 600 million people they’ll need.
@stafer3
2 ай бұрын
But gulf states are like 1 million each, with bunch of money from oil. They can find 5-10 million workers on the global market to keep their societies running, but where exactly do you find 1 billion workers to take care of China? And that assumes, no one else would want migrant workers. If you are lets say Indonesian and there are open positions to take care of retirees in China, Japan, Australia or Korea, where do you think most will decide to go? To places they get the most money for the same labor. So yeah, rich Chinese in some coastal cities will be able to attract such labor, majority of China will be left on their own.
@gregvanpaassen
2 ай бұрын
China is so big that importing enough cheap labour would be very difficult.
@kevinkarlwurzelgaruti458
2 ай бұрын
You are all thinking about sheer size, which is indeed the main problem in that case. However, you forget that nobody wants to move to China for two reasons, lower living standards than the west or Japan and an impossible language. Even if all the guys you need are factory workers, they must be able to speak and read the language to some degree in order to follow orders and operate machinery.
@mozaic529
2 ай бұрын
The problem with China isn’t running out of labourers as they’re moving into high tech fields that require less workers but how they’ll support the massive pension class of old people who don’t work
@georgedonner2115
2 ай бұрын
What does the stock market look like in a population collapse? Where does one invest?
@vernier-colorado
2 ай бұрын
Japan's fertility rate has some hope of increasing because Japan's inflation rebounded and Japan's economic condition improved. So Japan will not collapse so fast.
@ninny65
Ай бұрын
Ah it's like 2015 all over again
@goldreserve
2 ай бұрын
The world needs more over-populated slums? btw Great video. 👍
@johnoconnell8609
2 ай бұрын
If I am ever in Czechia to visit your beautiful country, the birthplace of the Celts and the crossroads of so much history, I will buy you lunch or dinner. Being blackpilled all the time is not good for your health, my friend. Here in Japan, there are demographic challenges for sure, however the infinite prosperity of not only racial but also ethnic unity and cohesion can truly be felt.
@不幸屋の娘-o6l
2 ай бұрын
Now, the situation in many Western countries is beyond saving because of mass deaths and infertility. The safe & effective has done its job.
@KingDispenser
2 ай бұрын
As I understand TFR is calculated as the total sum of the percentage of women in a given age bracket who gave birth during that year i.e. %(mothers aged 18) + %(mothers aged 19) + ... As explained in this video: kzitem.info/news/bejne/znmM1G1-gYmAiII Wouldn't that mean a higher childbearing cutoff points push the TFR up not down?
@GreenFrog11
2 ай бұрын
Yes he seems to say it as average number of childen born to all women 15-49 rather than the addition of each the average number of each age or cohort.
@jobloluther
2 ай бұрын
No, the remplacement rate is not 3.5 in Africa, actually it's not 3.5 anywhere
@WilliamSantos-cv8rr
2 ай бұрын
It can easily be. As he said there other factors and two of them are quite grim in Africa. One is childhood mortality ever 6% shortly after birth over there. Then you get the sex selective infanticide, and that plays against girls. Africa today is comparable to the 1920s western Europe, every 4-6 years they had some local societ strugle.
@jobloluther
2 ай бұрын
@@WilliamSantos-cv8rr You are a clown. In 1920s infant mortality was 150 per 1,000 live births in Germany. It's 59 today in Congo. 38 deaths per 1,000 live births in Sudan. Infant mortality has largely declined everywhere. The male / female ratio in the African continent is literally 50/50. Don't talk if you don't know shit.
@PowerSimplified1871
2 ай бұрын
@@WilliamSantos-cv8rr Only a handful of African countries have tfr above 4. Most, otherwise poor, countries have also had their fertility rate shattered. For example: In Ethiopia it is hovering around 3.5. All North African countries are less than 3. South Africa is less than 2.5. The only places where they are above 4 are Sahel countries and Somalia.
@m.m.1301
2 ай бұрын
Will you make a video about North African countries? I think it would be very relevant, especially when it comes to the consequences for europe if they all collapse like Libya
@Tonyx.yt.
2 ай бұрын
22:00 the problem of most of africa is not the birth rate too high but rather the death rate NOT enought high
@KVUAA
2 ай бұрын
(26:28) in that map Philippines is actually still hovering at 2,7 the last time i check so they should be green
@geoffhart
2 ай бұрын
I disagree a little bit on this point: the "Crude Birth Rate" is far more important than the "TFR" when we are discussing topics like "Population Collapse". Also, total births/total deaths. The TFR doesn't really tell you anything important about the future demographics. It may tell you something about the effectiveness of current policies/social norms - which is useful too, however it needs to be considered with the future women cohort sizes to give it value in this discussion here. EDIT: OK, later in the video you mention the value of the age pyramid - and I agree, this is really what I was getting at. The age pyramid with TFR per cohort line would be very valuable, as it would show specific generational trends (not sure if this info is available).
@alextyphon5799
2 ай бұрын
please do an analysis of australia next. 680,000 migrants this year. 23 million people to 27 million in just ten years. its over here.
@nzx.
2 ай бұрын
ask the aboriginals how over it is
@alextyphon5799
2 ай бұрын
@@nzx. there shall soon enough be no need to ask. only difference is that aussies will not be receiving welfare checks from the coming asian majority, and probably the abos will see the end of theirs as wel
@NEIL333-bv7nd
2 ай бұрын
@@nzx.Lol
@Natogoon
2 ай бұрын
Hell yeah. It's time for my monthly dose of schizophrenic demographics man
@OneElkCrew
2 ай бұрын
...so this means the stock market for the long term will collapse and the housing market will collapse also? Got it.
@Vali45854
2 ай бұрын
Demographic crash is not a problem , but with immigration is becoming a huge problème , country of immigration like usa Europe (all of europe) Australia latin america (maybe) will have ethnical Change . I think in the future birth rate will go up again in all of the world (darwin process) . And i dont think country like pakistan or Nigeria will have all the People demographic trend tell Many of them will emmigrate to the west and america .
@DEadSpaCE211
2 ай бұрын
By then the whites would have unified and kicked out all non whites.
@nacelnikprosiak1260
2 ай бұрын
7:14 - 6 sibling viewer here, how rare in % are we
@bruceyawen6160
2 ай бұрын
What i would find more interesting is how it would look if we still had high child mortality. We are 3 brothers and without modern medicine only one of us wouldve made it into adulthood
@arunkumarm18
2 ай бұрын
Why there are no Jobs nowadays? Is it because of huge Population?
@DEadSpaCE211
2 ай бұрын
Women doubled workforce plus infinity migrants. I only go for jobs where you have to be a citizen and resident for a number of years , it gives you more of a chance.
@bionizard5480
2 ай бұрын
This is the main reason why I’m not worried about the “you will own nothing and be happy” narrative: I will own a house, car and property for the absolute simple fact that there won’t be competition to buy it up yet alone if I want to squat in a abandoned house in a dying town for me to claim it with no resistance, I’ll have all the resources in the world.
@kurisari1937
2 ай бұрын
Bill G won’t let you. Hems preparing more jabs, mosquito mRNA bites, blocking out the sun, mixing bugs into food etc.
@deaththekid3998
2 ай бұрын
@@kurisari1937as agriculture collapses due to desertification, bugs will start to look more and more appetizing 😅
@Bubusel-y7p
2 ай бұрын
Military robots belonging to rich people will stop poor people from claiming anything
@hschan5976
2 ай бұрын
@@deaththekid3998 Bugs are too hard to catch. Get ready for Soylent Green instead
@deaththekid3998
2 ай бұрын
@@hschan5976 are you simple? You don’t need to catch them, crickets can be farmed with minimal resources.
@ast88888
2 ай бұрын
can you stop using those rediculious projections from the UN and make your own?
@doer-knower
2 ай бұрын
Consider making a video outlining your stance about the UN numbers, the UN spokesperson leaders, and anything UN. Your stance might show us whether you think the UN and its people generally satisfy you, or frustrate you, or disappoint you. 😊
@zeddDelMundo
2 ай бұрын
ENCOURAGING POPULATION GROWTH FACILITATES LAZINESS AND GREED AND MAKES THE RICH RICHER AT THE EXPENSE OF THE POOR. Increasing population size lowers wages and raises rents. This is bad for most people - especially the poor. It does benefit landlords and CEOs. So encouraging population growth makes the rich richer at the expense of the poor. Population growth is being encouraged with claims which lead you to believe that population is shrinking and denying, or otherwise trivializing, the problems caused by population growth. KZitem is pushing some contradicting views. Such as that you should not be prejudiced. Now if you put overpopulation into youtube almost every video will say pretty much the same thing, that overpopulation is a myth and that there were two men, yes two men, Malthus and Ehrlich. They suggested the possibility of huge, catastrophic famines - but famines, which have since occurred (and could have been avoided, or at least reduced, via better family planning) were not as bad as they had suggested. KZitem suggests that, because of two (2) men, you should be prejudiced against anybody who suggests any warnings about overpopulation. If you put homeless into the search box on youtube you will get numerous videos portraying the homeless as lazy. Yet youtube is also pushing the idea that the developed countries should increase their populations. A lack of cheap labor will mean that many people, who are in the position of CEO, or other managerial positions, will have to do some physical labor themselves. So a push for population growth (i.e. complaining of a 'labor shortage') is motivated not only by the greed, but also by the laziness, of the bourgeoisie. You might think it is the users of youtube and not youtube itself who are the controllers of the content. Well you need to think again. KZitem cancel videos which they don't like, even if the contents of the videos are not against their rules. For example, once when I put overpopulation into the search box for youtube I got a video of a teacher teaching his class that even minor population growth results in habitat destruction as it requires infrastructure, and crop production, which takes a lot of space, and so can - and does - wipe out entire ecosystems. Now that video was interesting, it was something that I had never thought of. That video was near the top of the list for overpopulation. Not long after this, I noticed that video had been removed and there was another video making a reference to it, showing silent clips of the teacher talking to his students and claiming that he was a racist. The person calling him a racist did not identify herself, you could not see her, you only heard a woman's voice, with an American accent, saying that he was a racist. She did not give any reason for calling him a racist. I had seen the video and that he had not said, nor done, anything racist in the video. It is a well known fact that allegations of racism are often used as a means to nefarious ends. Increasing the proportion of young people will make it harder for old people to compete for jobs. KZitem pushes the idea that a decreasing proportion of young people will be unable to pay the pensions of the old people. State provided pensions do not amount to much. It is not going to cripple the economy. Look at Japan, they are doing quite well, without increasing the population via state-sponsored incentives or mass immigration. There is something which people either never thought of - or simply adopted selfish, inconsiderate views about. The young people whom they are creating or importing will become old people and the situation will repeat itself. Elderly people make up a substantial portion of the homeless. Increasing competition for jobs and increasing real estate prices are leading causes of homelessness. Perhaps youtube pushes the idea that homeless people are lazy, or otherwise self made, to divert attention from this. Homeless people do dirty jobs for very low pay such as selling street papers, collecting bottles and collecting cans. Also they must walk great distances to get what they need, in many cases. Begging is not called working but it is a very stressful and time consuming way to make money. It is unlikely that many of the bourgeoisie would do such work. It is hypocritical for bourgeoisie, who encouraged population growth, so that can get someone else to do their manual labor, to call the homeless, or anyone else, lazy. Many of the youtube videos about homelessness would be labeled 'hate speech' if they targeted woke-privileged, protected groups. In her famous book Dead Aid, Dambisa Moyo advocates mass migration of the third world's workforce to the west. How practical is this? More than 75% of the world's population live in the third world. She thinks that mass migration will make the third world much wealthier because wealth will be sent home. This might be true of the first generations to arrive but subsequent generations are unlikely to send much money home. The poor people in the third world are not the ones who make it to the first world - it is the wealthier more intelligent ones who make it to the first world. Even asylum seekers need money and brains to make the journey and make a good case. The net effect is a drain of wealth and talent from the third world. Hey, what if you were in Africa and suddenly needed a good doctor? This further impoverishes the third world. This is a benefit to big companies who want to exploit the third world and get things cheaper there. It is said that the first world is the land of opportunity and that it's easy to get jobs there. However it is actually harder to get jobs in the first world, than in the third world because there's more competition. Talented people from all over the world go to the first world to work. Once there, where competition for jobs is greater, many might be unable to compete. Nobody likes to blame themselves for their failure. So they might blame this on some perception of 'discrimination', which is fueled by the woke media. While we are on the subject of discrimination, it is important to note that discrimination against the homeless is still quite legal in these woke obsessed times. It would be funny if some of the bourgeoisie were forced to get out and collect some cans, or do some hiking to fill their water bottles - and did some real work! Another old argument is that overpopulation is not the issue when it comes to hunger, we need more compassion and charity because there is enough food to feed the world's population no matter how big it gets. However anybody with half a brain knows that if you save a million people from starving - and that population is growing - it will result in larger numbers of starving people. So clearly we need to address the root causes of this. Why are poor people having large numbers of children? There are certain ways of thinking which need to be changed. The hindrances to this must be overcome. The woke claim that the west should absorb the third world - but not have any say in the things which drive this. It is claimed that world population is going to peak sometime later this century. Well I read, in New International Magazine in the 80s, that world population was going to peak in 2025 - so nobody can predict the future. Mainstream media fails to mention the fact that high birth rates, amongst some parents, not only in the third world but the first world too, are often driven by a view that children are assets. It is claimed that many people have large numbers of children as a form of old age pension. However one usually receives that when one is over 60, who, in their right mind, is going to spend the best part of their life raising a big family so they can be happy when they are over 60? Let's be realistic. Just as you have some welfare mothers in the first world who have a lot of kids to get more money, you have some parents in places without a welfare system who have a lot of kids so they can send them out to work, beg or prostitute to make money for the parents. To provide an early retirement, or simply supplement or replace an income when the parents are young. Now that is a problem which obviously needs to be addressed. Furthermore, in many countries, people are actually encouraged, by others, to see children as assets and have large numbers of them. So peer pressure can play a role too. Attitudes need to be changed - and that's not going to happen if mainstream media keeps failing to report these problems, or otherwise trivialize overpopulation. Obviously large numbers of poor people are a benefit to big companies who can get cheap labor and other resources - but try to have some consideration for the kids. It is said that the problem is not overpopulation but a lack of compassion. So let's have some real compassion! Now I am not making stereotypes about people who live in the third world. Many of them are nice parents and don't exploit their children. I know people in the third world who choose not to have any children at all. I myself live in the third world and I chose not to have any. There are also poor, homeless people in the third world who simply can't have kids. It is such people who are the first to feel the bite of overpopulation. I am not making stereotypes about the bourgeoisie or landlords or CEOs either. There is good and bad in every group. There is good and bad in every person. No two men are created equal.😮😢😮😢😮😢
@mozaic529
2 ай бұрын
The rich won’t raise wages to match demand they’ll just import cheap workers from the third world to increase supply
@gabork5055
2 ай бұрын
I ain't gonna read all that but judging from your first two sentences you're probably right, lmao. We would be better off with less people and boomers should work, we're not going to reach retirement age either ever so it's only fair.
@babythanos2363
2 ай бұрын
One more think which I would like your opinion about is the more male then female population in china or India and some other countries. Because of more female child's abortions. Wouldn't they would require birth rate of more than 2.1 per women to maintain their population. And some countries where male population is low and female population is high would require less than 2.1 children per women to maintain there population.
@rohj4825
2 ай бұрын
Naturally for 106 boys there are born 100 girls, so even in countries with low mortality rate replacement fertility rate need to be 2,1 children per women as not all women live longer as 40 years old.
@julius43461
2 ай бұрын
2.1 is just the average. However, to put this into perspective, it doesn't mean that all people you see in the street would have 2 and some 3 children. No, it would need to be normal for people to have 4 or more children, as they have to make up for those who don't have any, and there will always be people like that. For example, I currently have 2 and third on the way. However my best friend has none, and my sister will have none. Meaning that my 3 kids won't even be enough to replace the deaths of myself, my wife, my sister and my best friend. If I spread this out and look at my entire street, I would need to have something like 10 kids to make up for everyone lol. It needs to become normal for most people have kids, and for many people to have 4 or more. I'm a modern hedonist myself, but I decided to have 3+ children as I see it as a counter culture today. For real, people are as shocked when I say that I want 4 children as they were when someone in the 19th century Europe got a tattoo.
@Martina-vd8vh
2 ай бұрын
👍
@funzario144
2 ай бұрын
Looks like the world will be africanized.
@guadalupefreyre5900
2 ай бұрын
13:12 15:35
@randomcanadian3554
2 ай бұрын
Naiz are like zombies - kzitem.info/news/bejne/wI1ssa5_q4p5aKw 🤣🤣🤣
@viking4476
2 ай бұрын
Negative growth can be a good thing. For example, for Serbia, where I live. If we didn't have that for the last thirty years, as well as immigration, we would have 50% unemployment. We wouldn't have anything to eat, like in Africa. Now we even bring people from abroad India, Bangladesh, Nepal to work.
@Flayko_
2 ай бұрын
ten Českej přízvuk neskryješ 😄
@standad7541
2 ай бұрын
Kryje to líp a líp
@AdamWright8fool
2 ай бұрын
Without a doubt, this year will be worse than the last one. I lost a lot of money last year as a result of poor investing decisions that I would never have made if I hadn't been so concerned about my portfolio. I kept investing, but I wasn't sure whether I should start saving for a house. In the end, I sold everything I had, and the house required more maintenance than I had anticipated. I'm not sure how much longer I can go on like this
@RhysHuntoffice
2 ай бұрын
Every one of us has made mistakes at some point. Consider financial planning
@CoreyLloydo
2 ай бұрын
It's true. Together with the help of a financial planner, I was able to diversify my portfolio across several markets and produce a net profit of over one million dollars from high dividend yield bonds, ETFs, and stocks. It is essential that you have a variety of exposures, especially with businesses that are already profitable.
@RhysHuntoffice
2 ай бұрын
Would you mind telling me about your financial planner?
@CoreyLloydo
2 ай бұрын
Leah Foster Alderman.
@CoreyLloydo
2 ай бұрын
You are most likely to find more info when you look her up online
@feliz2892
2 ай бұрын
If the synergy of population growth and industrialization happen in Nigeria, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Egypt the African Century is not far...
@DEadSpaCE211
2 ай бұрын
Hahaha 😆
@rohj4825
2 ай бұрын
We need protection of all humans life from moment of conception.
@swoldier7308
2 ай бұрын
I don`t care
@bruceyawen6160
2 ай бұрын
Oh, you will care soon enough
@romanshutov8572
2 ай бұрын
first!
@deralufe9094
2 ай бұрын
Just buy a house, lol
@HisCoconutGun
2 ай бұрын
dont worry yt ppl african kings gonna make all the babies yall gona be lyke the dinosors ☠️☠️☠️👶🏿👶🏿👶🏿👶🏿👶🏿👶🏿👶🏿👶🏿
@DEadSpaCE211
2 ай бұрын
Yeah it would be like an asteroid hit Earth tbf if it was just africans hahaha 😆
@zander8347
Ай бұрын
I honestly don't believe a population collapse is a bad thing. It's just that the current capitalistic model won't be sustainable and the people with money and power are constantly crying about it
@papapavlov5407
2 ай бұрын
The future will be African :(
@1.618method
2 ай бұрын
This is correct, Nigeria in particular
@dandankokorohikareteku2620
2 ай бұрын
Giga based
@codysparks1454
2 ай бұрын
So the out of Africa theory will be happening again but on a much larger scale? Brilliant lmao
@bigboyman5743
2 ай бұрын
if i can get an african gf, then its a huge benefit for me
@kkkmmmhy
2 ай бұрын
Worry not, they will only overflow you with a tide of males.
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