Because you asked, I feel you may enjoy crunching the numbers on ADF group (drx on the tsx). Small cap commercial metal structure business currently WAY undervalued due to stock selling pressures from one major holder.
@petru1731
Ай бұрын
Just some potential ideas for value: Vale/Carnival/Albemarle/Diageo/Disney/Burberry/Polaris/CVS/Baxter/Comcast/Ambev/Yum China/Warner Bros Disney would probably be the most popular.
@herokorai8346
Ай бұрын
WBD, VALE, CVS
@markkrieger7226
Ай бұрын
I would ask that you look at Disney
@serghorpt
Ай бұрын
@@herokorai8346Vale as my vote
@herokorai8346
Ай бұрын
I am subscribing! I like this individual company analysis. I prefer this type of content over other youtubers that do macro (market crash videos) or 2 stocks to buy videos. They sell more but I prefer straightforward business analysis. I hope this channel grows! I came up with intrinsic value of 363/share though I used a higher multiple 11x.
@Frogge.777
Ай бұрын
Thank you for the video. I love Ulta's responsible and long-term management, a rare gem.
@mikep6167
Ай бұрын
Dude... your timing on this is just perfect. For anyone reading who doesn't know, Buffett just bought a ton of ULTA and it's up by over 10% after hours.
@investingsucks
Ай бұрын
He's a regular viewer of my channel, I actually advise him on a lot of his investments
@TheInvestingGeek
Ай бұрын
He defo didn’t buy a ton. It’s like 0.1% of their portfolio. Don’t go allocating all of your portfolio to ULTA when buffet clearly didn’t. They might be cheap atm but they are being absolutely smashed by their main competitor in almost every aspect.
@SigFigNewton
Ай бұрын
@@investingsucks😂
@SigFigNewton
Ай бұрын
@@TheInvestingGeekthink of the huge number of companies that buffet doesn’t own at all. the vote of confidence from that dude is important. Rather than partially selling down quickly, after being double digits higher from Wednesday to Thursday, it gained another 3% on Friday. Gives the impression that a lot of big money had been getting interested and was waiting for the downtrend to end
@HybernatorRG
6 күн бұрын
@@TheInvestingGeek
@Jacoba_0_813
Ай бұрын
i love the way you present the intrinsic value in the end. Thank you sir!
@zzkzz7727
Ай бұрын
Hey, i commented about this a while ago and you replied. Thanks for making the video :)
@zzkzz7727
Ай бұрын
@Investingsucks hey bro just a question (I genuinely didnt understand this part of ur video). You say that ULTA doesn't really have an economic moat as its a retailer, people can just buy their products at different locations (which is 100% true), but if this is the case then how have they been able to sustain such high ROIC and net margins for so long? I've always read over and over that you can't have a high ROIC for long without a moat, but your statement contradicts that and im a bit confused
@investingsucks
Ай бұрын
It hasn't really been that long. It's been about 10 years, which is good and is what led to their stock price going up like 1300% over that time. So the gains from the "moat" have already occurred. If you invest in them now you're banking on them keeping this moat for the long term, which seems unlikely to me. But I could be wrong
@vladpuescu
Ай бұрын
Nice analysis! 👏
@mikeknox4540
Ай бұрын
also I would say the Beauty market has a ton of tailwinds. The younger cohorts are spending quite a bit more vs previous cohorts at their age. I believe this is driven by social media. 6% beauty market growth might even by conservative! watching this one closely and going to start a small position. Curious if you start one also
@investingsucks
Ай бұрын
Not starting a position for now since it seems like growth may be capped by an inability to expand outside the US. But curious to see how it plays out
@foxbat888
Ай бұрын
They have a very high ROE and not much debt meaning they could expand very rapidly if they find the right international market
@harisdzinovic1687
Ай бұрын
I’d love to see a Aritzia stock update video!!
@zanexie981
Ай бұрын
I think Buffet is a regular viewer of this channel :).
@mikeknox4540
Ай бұрын
Will add a comment as someone who works in the industry. International expansion may be difficult. In the Beauty business, the brands have quite a bit of leverage, and prefer working with just a few big retailers. Distributing through more retailers means higher supply chain costs, higher marketing, promo & fixture costs etc. I think this is why they did not (and will never) follow through on Canadian expansion. Perhaps they will have success in Mexico where the country is growing faster, and there are fewer established big players
@investingsucks
Ай бұрын
Interesting point
@fuhishva
Ай бұрын
Warren Buffett seems to like ULTA
@aminemeskni
Ай бұрын
Great work ❤
@SH-np8hz
Ай бұрын
I have just subscribed your channel. You are quite good.
@Bulruninvests
7 күн бұрын
What about the stock buybacks? No mention of buybacks here. They are planning to buy 1.8 billion(11% of outstanding shares over the next 2years). EPS and FCF per share will likely increase at around 11% yearly.
@investingsucks
7 күн бұрын
Buybacks aren't included in a DCF model because it'd be double counting
@davidhuiz
Ай бұрын
Great job. Plz Keep it up.
@apennndula
Ай бұрын
could you look at $WBA ? super beaten down , might be worth looking.
@offbeattm6301
Ай бұрын
Hey dude, I enjoyed the video! Quick question, what WACC/Discount rate did you use for the DCF?
@investingsucks
Ай бұрын
Thanks, 10%
@rickydiaz7
Ай бұрын
Great video
@QualityInvest5
Ай бұрын
Nice video 👍
@simonnardos1524
Ай бұрын
Good video
@lakshnaramesh9733
Ай бұрын
May ik what website u have used in this video to analyse their fundamentals?
@investingsucks
Ай бұрын
Tickernomics - it's a website I created. I've linked it in the description
@4sandys
Ай бұрын
Ulta is a buyback machine , just wondering if you have adjusted that in your spreadsheet?
@investingsucks
Ай бұрын
It's a DCF which calculates intrinsic value (i.e. present value of future cash flows) so buybacks cannot be included. Buybacks don't inherently change the intrinsic value of a stock
@4sandys
Ай бұрын
@@investingsucks : But you are anticipating value of per share , that can be done only if you know the number of share , if number of shares reduces in future shouldn’t that affect the equity value per share?
@investingsucks
Ай бұрын
@@4sandys Depends how you're determining the valuation. If you're doing something like projecting EPS then applying a PE multiple to that, i.e., determining the future stock price, then yes buybacks need to be accounted for. If you're using the DCF method then you're calculating present value, so future buybacks are not included as it would be double counting
@SigFigNewton
Ай бұрын
This is why I have been buying in. It’s fine to value stuff based on, for example, free cash flow. The long strong history of buybacks is attractive as an additional consideration because it assures me that the healthy free cash flows will continue to be used to return value to shareholders.
@theartofbecoming5429
Ай бұрын
What discount rate do you use for your DCF, 10%?
@investingsucks
29 күн бұрын
Yes!
@EverGreenElephant
Ай бұрын
Did you factor in the buy backs? These are quite significant.
@investingsucks
Ай бұрын
It's a DCF model that calculates intrinsic value (i.e. present value of future cash flow) so buybacks cannot be factored in
@EverGreenElephant
Ай бұрын
@@investingsucks I see. In this case, however, it's kind of part of the investing thesis. They buy back 3-4% p.a.
@investingsucks
Ай бұрын
It's a way of returning cash to shareholders. If the business starts making less money then buybacks will slow down. Intrinsic value ultimately depends on the company's performance
@sirbongos
Ай бұрын
@@EverGreenElephant Buybacks are already accounted for in a DCF model; buybacks are paid for by free cash flow. If you decrease share count by 3-4%, you are double counting the buybacks and inflating the fair value.
@SigFigNewton
Ай бұрын
The Discounted Cash Flow valuation not only includes, but is based on the healthy free cash flows. Noting the impressive and consistent buyback history makes the quantitative valuation arrived at using DCF appear more attractive in a qualitative sense for two reasons. First, it assures investors that this company is committed to returning value to shareholders. Second, the consistency of the buybacks over time demonstrates that there aren’t really periods of time during which most of the cash flow has to be reinvested in other stuff to simply maintain the company’s leadership position. A microchip manufacturer, for example, would not be able to be as consistent with buybacks, as it has to invest periodically in major cycles of upgrading its tech, its production simply to maintain market share. So i mean… the buybacks were included in the analysis, but it’s not as though the buybacks were included in the analysis.😊
@PopeyeSailor-wz7ew
Ай бұрын
@15:58 U State 6% revenue growth yet your spreadsheet lists 9%. 🤔
@investingsucks
Ай бұрын
6% comparable sales growth. It ends up at 9% revenue growth when you add in the new stores we assume they open each year
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