"The population would be against them". I think that might be the understatement of the year.
@dogcarman
Жыл бұрын
Wagner might have to be rescued from the locals by the Polish army….
@pukacz80
Жыл бұрын
Why? Do you think there would be support for russians like in lns/dnr?
@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416
Жыл бұрын
@@pukacz80On the contrary 😊
@MrJetra
Жыл бұрын
If Wagner enters a full scale war with NATO, they will be legitimate targets in Africa as well.
@juliuspavilovskis4862
Жыл бұрын
Sure, were waiting them with Bread and Salt xDDDDD
@vonblunder
Жыл бұрын
Wagner is in Belarus to wait out the old guy in Moscow. When he falls out the window Prigozhin will have a significant force to negotiate his position in the new system. The threats on Poland etc... are just smoke and mirrors
@larsnielsen1852
Жыл бұрын
Yep Prigozhib and Lukanhesko getting revenge over ailing Vlad…
@aenorist2431
Жыл бұрын
Less "smoke and mirrors" and more "free brownie points with the ultranationalists / nazis in russia". Hes trying to prepare his constituency ... still bonkers that he has not been executed (windowed) by now.
@jeffreyhanc1711
Жыл бұрын
@@timtrinier4448we can only hope
@kimwit1307
Жыл бұрын
If I were lukashenko, I'd stay clear of open windows too.
@ScarletEdge
Жыл бұрын
@@kimwit1307 like closed ones are a problem XD
@gnicholson4231
Жыл бұрын
If Wagner made any moves in Poland, not only would the Polish military respond forcefully but the civilian population would also react to an 'invasion' by Russians backed with a German name - memories of WW II and communist domination have not gone away.
@nickbloom84
Жыл бұрын
Wagner would be f*cked ASAP
@Not-a-GSD
Жыл бұрын
It will also end up triggering Article 5 of the NATO Charter.
@rich11a15
Жыл бұрын
@@Not-a-GSDArticle 5 does not guarantee support from other NATO members, the big danger is if Poland or the Balts tried to cut off access to Kaliningrad, that would really be poking the bear. They would be on their own for certain.
@jonathanbarrett1708
Жыл бұрын
@@rich11a15 Once Russia has been defeated and removed from all Ukrainian territory they need to be thrown out of Kaliningrad which should be returned to Poland. Russia needs to be weakened for a generation to protect Europe from Russia’s perpetual aggression towards its neighbours.
@tremedar
Жыл бұрын
@@jonathanbarrett1708 They need to be broken, WW2-Germany style. Not just isolated and humiliated because all that will achieve is they'll become a Chinese client state. They must be forcibly broken away from China, the oligarchs and putin's inner circle need to cease to exist and the country rebuild as a proper democracy after being shown just how perilously close putin brought them to utter destruction so they become like Germany putting military readiness so far down on priorities that the line between action and being destroyed blurred.
@stellascott4584
Жыл бұрын
You always give such healthy and calm perspectives to the happenings. Thank you! Eller som vi säger I Sverige - Tusen tack! ☺
@The_ZeroLine
Жыл бұрын
The fact people and even many journalists couldn’t figure out these answers for themselves shows education systems are failing worldwide.
@hazardousmaterial5492
Жыл бұрын
Just because something would make no sense at all doing doesn't convince me in the slightest that russia, belarus and/or wagner wouldn't do it
@recoil53
Жыл бұрын
@@bobbytookalook People really misunderstand the whole rational actor thing, even politicians. Rational does not mean they access risk, consequences, worth , and situation the same way. Also everybody does not have the same access and scope of information.
@BogdanBaudis
Жыл бұрын
Yep. "Realpolitik", "rationality" frequently assumes that an adversary minds works the same as ours. In case of Western people thinking of Russians this is a grave mistake.
@TheCrazyhorse88
Жыл бұрын
Anders, your videos really calm me down. Truly a voice of reason. Cheers from Poland.
@The_ZeroLine
Жыл бұрын
Kind of sad you couldn’t figure this out for yourself.
@marcinb4647
Жыл бұрын
@@The_ZeroLine I agree. Unfortunately most of our population here in Poland aren't used to thinking on their own.
@JeZZGro
Жыл бұрын
Why are you scared? You are the first to fight against Russia, and sanctions, and everything, you are the loudest in Europe. Why are you scare then?
@stuartbrand5617
Жыл бұрын
Option 3: Large air cannon and frozen chickens. Next helicopter to cross the border gets a birdstrike.
@paulneilson4106
Жыл бұрын
Frozen geese. Chickens would be tricky to explain at that height. 😳
@8fledermaus8
Жыл бұрын
LMAO
@8fledermaus8
Жыл бұрын
@@paulneilson4106You, Sir, are a very careful plotter XDXDXD
@leosedf
Жыл бұрын
@@paulneilson4106 LOL
@hape3862
Жыл бұрын
@@paulneilson4106 HAHA! You made my day! 🤣
@kingpest13
Жыл бұрын
Poland has really stepped up for Ukraine.
@therealdebater
Жыл бұрын
To anyone who has stumbled on this channel accidentally or casually, and is wondering, allow me to say that whenever Anders publishes a video on KZitem, I immediately watch it. There are very few other channels that make me do this. In other words, to me, this channel is essential watching!
@markwilmot6085
Жыл бұрын
Totally agree
@davidfulton179
Жыл бұрын
100% agree. I am fully supportive of Ukraine (hence my avatar) and I could watch a dozen other channels that make me nod in agreement. But Ander's channel is like a repository for strategic and political thinking that I would watch if he were discussing ANY international conflict. It just so happens that is area of expertise aligns with my interest. He a sober... balance... and surprisingly cheerful voice among the pundits. Indeed, his analysis does make the conflict seem more like a breakdown of the football match, which I both like and find slightly surreal.
@bobhume4976
Жыл бұрын
Me too - I think one of the other good channels I watch recommended him a while back. Anders is one of my regular staples for information on the illegal invasion. His analysis, reporting and presentation are always superb. The production quality is spot on considering how quickly he gets it posted.
@ruger6049
Жыл бұрын
Yes, smash the like button immediatly!!
@facty_kit1742
Жыл бұрын
It's really insightful. He, along with Jake Broe are doing great. Many of Jake's predictions were correct.
@CrazyGaming-ig6qq
Жыл бұрын
Anders, you have great sense of reason and calm objective and analytical perspectives on these situations. As a fellow dane I cant help feeling a little proud to see a countryman like you sharing your valuable insights with us. Håber du får en dejlig weekend! :)
@macsmola
Жыл бұрын
-Is Wagner going to attack Poland? -Maybe. But he'll have to deal with Chopin then.
@Confucius_Says...
Жыл бұрын
It's going to be a complete Gotterdamerung for Wagner.
@rositasultana3958
Жыл бұрын
I saw what you did there 😂
@zulubeatz1
Жыл бұрын
There would be a lot of Chopin i imagine
@bradevans7935
Жыл бұрын
@@Confucius_Says... Not necessarily, Chopin's Bach may be worse than it's bite
@Confucius_Says...
Жыл бұрын
@@bradevans7935 I'll see your Ride of the Valkyries and raise you The Ride of Winged Hussars...
@fredrikcarlsson2297
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the great analysis! Overall I'm pretty impressed by Prigozhin. The wily bastard is getting out of some tight spots, likely controls the key to Russia's foreign policy in Africa, and is looking like perhaps the most competent/media savvy leader in Russia's group of contenders. He seems like a dangerous man to underestimate.
@tatradak9781
Жыл бұрын
Your right, NikNak also has given the west an opening to make contact, but did they??
@thomasherrin6798
Жыл бұрын
It's funny how the potty mouth chef turns up in Russia like for the African "meet and greet" though and other visits, obviously because Putin "asked" him to be there, it's a very Russian "in fight" at present, meanwhile Putin's military are being purged, Wagner has been absorbed into the Russian military in Russia and the rest shoved into Belarus as a bad fit, the African arm is undergoing a management change and the military blogger's are being dissuaded from being critical by the Chief blogger's impending prison sentence which will be for a very long time. Everything points to Putin being under some sort of pressure but his "Moscow" enemies have not shown themselves as yet, although the rumour is they will collapse things by doing things badly, and that will be difficult to gauge because that has been in evidence during the entirety of the illegal invasion!?!
@jeanneknight4791
Жыл бұрын
Criminal mind!
@jeffreyhanc1711
Жыл бұрын
In other words: the old hotdog salesman is not the stupidest war criminal in Russia today.
@hb1338
Жыл бұрын
It's a Darwinian thing. Anyone near the levers of power who is still alive is, by definition, smart and resourceful.
@mugin11223344
Жыл бұрын
I have the greatest respect for Poland, they have taken one for team NATO, and peace.
@JeZZGro
Жыл бұрын
NATO does not mean peace, it means war.
@k66a865
Жыл бұрын
Som vanligt intressant och tydligt från superdansken 🇩🇰, tack från 🇸🇪
@johanmetreus1268
Жыл бұрын
Varför super dansken?
@k66a865
Жыл бұрын
@@johanmetreus1268 😁 inget mellanrum ska’ re va vettu
@johanmetreus1268
Жыл бұрын
@@k66a865 mellanrummet är hela skillnaden mellan en sjuk sköterska och sjuksköterskan som tar hand om henne ;)
@k66a865
Жыл бұрын
@@johanmetreus1268 👌
@k66a865
Жыл бұрын
@@johanmetreus1268 korrigering ✅
@jeanneknight4791
Жыл бұрын
Great analysis! The immediate action is Hybrid Warfare. Polish Immigration Control expenses have skyrocketed and keep growing since the migrant chess game started by Putin 3 years ago as he was simultaneously putting the troops along the Ukrainian Borders. TVP Poland, which is in English, shows clips of Africans sawing through the metal bars of the fence. They fly migrants in from Africa to try to get into Poland and then the migrants ask for asylum. They assume some will get past the border guards. Some are simply posing as migrants but are supplied with cash and underground contacts. They want to disrupt the rail and roads into Ukraine to disrupt the supply chain of weapons and aid. Poland is constantly finding spies and saboteurs around the munition crates, military bases, and other sensitive facilities. The little green men ultimately sow civil disagreement as citizens and the EU debate treatment of migrants. The little green men are just like Hitler’s planted Germans in the Sudetenland prior to WWII. Look up Green Case from the 1930s some time. Centuries of peace in Silesia was disrupted when ethnic Germans, who had been living in peace with the Poles and Czechs in Silesia, started complaining that they weren't treated fairly.
@maxotaurus5140
Жыл бұрын
So all this Wagner stuff could be, probably is, just a stint to defocus Poland and NATO.
@guydemullet303
Жыл бұрын
Time to get over the African sob story. Hungary showed that meeting border jumpers with bullets puts an immediate STOP to that nonsense. Real world Rule #1, you only own what you are willing to protect.
@kimrnhof107
Жыл бұрын
I love your way of getting the next level of assumptions in to the debat, as example why the Wagner soldiers are placed at the Polish boarder, to be as long away from Russia as possible !
@AndyM_323YYY
Жыл бұрын
I could see Putin deciding losing to NATO would be less humiliating than losing to Ukraine.
@kti5682
Жыл бұрын
Also he would get his war against NATO. The order of who attacked whom doesn't really matter anyway.
@mtmadigan82
Жыл бұрын
Insane, but then again many of russias actions generally are...
@kti5682
Жыл бұрын
@@mtmadigan82 He doesn't have to convince us just his people.
@MusicalMemeology
Жыл бұрын
Good point it’s a face saving technique to say nato beat him potentially.
@joefox9875
Жыл бұрын
In his sober moments, Putin must know that he will not survive a defeat (by anyone). It is already extremely bad for him to be in a stalemate with Ukraine.
@richardburgess8657
Жыл бұрын
Thank you, Anders. 👍😎
@alh6255
Жыл бұрын
There's no need to be sensational. Everyone knows that the Wagnerians will not attack Poland (unless they want to cease to exist in a few hours). They can, however, support Belarus in a hybrid war (attempts to cross the Polish border by illegal immigrants brought and pushed to the other side by Belarusian guards). The Wagnerians are being prepared to go to Africa, and for the time being they are also used to blackmail Lukashenko, who has recently become too expansive in Russia and some say that he will replace Putin).
@Hardradi-hkh9596skp
Жыл бұрын
Why you don't have a million subscribers is beyond my understanding. Your analysis has always been on point concerning this conflict and is appreciated. Thank you for a dispassionate look at the miasma that is the Ukraine-Russia war. My days go back to the Fulda Gap through Kosovo, Iraq 2 and Afghanistan. It's supremely important to have timely, accurate intel, so thank you for what you do. Write the book on this little circus we have on our hands.
@irwin-hirsh
Жыл бұрын
Thank you! Still on Holiday, Yeah! enjoy
@lgude
Жыл бұрын
I met a very left leaning Polish Buddhist who surprised when he told me that he refused to speak Russian because it was an “an enemy language.” So I agree the Poles will go all in against the Warners any other Russians or the Belarusian army.
@marcinb4647
Жыл бұрын
It's just a common sense. Nothing good ever came to Poland from Russia's side. Unless you count Chekhov's dramas, of course.
@olegslapins8156
Жыл бұрын
Russian is spoken in many other countries as a second language among millions of other nationalities. Does it automatically make those people as his enemy? Or does the language itself make him uncomfortable? I think he's just immature to say the least. He doesn't even know the fact that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers use Russian as their first language.
@roberthenry3757
Жыл бұрын
Glad to see You in T shirts again. Keep up the Good Work. Very concise easy to understand. Thanks
@MultiZirkon
Жыл бұрын
"...force to go beyond ambiguity." -- I don't believe people understands how clean, tidy and smart that is. It deprives Putin from his favorite, murky playground. -- In a way put flood lights on it.
@cubatea
Жыл бұрын
Superb analysis thank you
@nilhangsamsohang7104
Жыл бұрын
The best mentor I ever subscribe in KZitem.. Specially in such topic. Hats off ❤
@rickdeblanger9437
Жыл бұрын
High quality reporting as always. Incredible understanding of such complex situations. Truly worth the subscription. Thank you.
@cz1589
Жыл бұрын
Excellent timing! My faith in your content is big enough to forward it to my dutch and english readers, even before watching it myself. Wich i will do now...
@aerisarmis9666
Жыл бұрын
The last time Wagner attacked without air superiority (in Syria) the USAF and US Army artillery slaughtered them. If they go into Poland, they will get the same treatment.
@sergelecluse0001
Жыл бұрын
Another excellent assessment of the situation. I'm looking forward to seeing the next one.👍
@Achmedsander
Жыл бұрын
Expecting Russia to get any kind of support in Poland is laughable. Also expecting Poland to back down from supporting Ukraine if attacked by Wagner is also quite silly. If anything Poland would probably provide more support.
@Corndadthepop
Жыл бұрын
I really appreciate your sober and thoughtful assessment.
@irwin-hirsh
Жыл бұрын
what a drama filled with plot twists and drama... Thank you for the perspective
@albertjurcisin8944
Жыл бұрын
Extremely educational and interesting. It so rarely goes together.
@lukedogwalker
Жыл бұрын
Surely the Suwalki Gap is one of the most heavily surveilled regions on Earth? How could any movement across any of the borders possibly go unnoticed? In which case, Wagner can't pull a "little gray men" move because everyone will see them coming. Literally.
@hb1338
Жыл бұрын
Poland has already moved troops to the area. Any surprise would be short lived.
@andersjjensen
Жыл бұрын
@@hb1338 The only surprise will be on the Wagner faces when they see the Poles grinning from ear to ear as they open up every single can of whoop-ass they have at their disposal.
@migsvensurfing6310
Жыл бұрын
Tak for din video Anders. Thanks for the video Anders, it makes sense, even to me.
@mrp1326
Жыл бұрын
This week I was on vacation north of Suwalki, near the border. Beautiful place, very peaceful and the best option is to ignore all this fear mongering. Polish forces and especially the population will not let any dumb thing to happen.
@sharonsmiler4938
Жыл бұрын
Thank you ❤
@PhotoFlight
Жыл бұрын
Might be a good time for a joint NATO exercise in Poland. Ya know, the full combined arms type exercise. Armor, AFV, HiMars, Attack Helos, Fighters, Bombers, A-10s, drones, cruise missiles pretty much everything NATO has at hand. Let Wagner know that an attack on Poland would be 10x worse than what they experienced in Ukraine. And let Lukashenko worry about a regime change in Belarus. Might even affect their willingness to continue support of Russias war in Ukraine. If they had any sense.
@williamhancock8065
Жыл бұрын
Wagner tried attacking NATO once. It did not go well. A Wagner unit tried to seize an oil field controlled by the Kurds in Syria. Wagner's deal with Assad let them keep 25% of anything they captured. Wagner is more an organized crime outfit than a military unit. There was a 12-man US Special Forces ODA with the Kurds. They first called the deconfliction hotline with Russia and asked Wagner to back off. Wagner didn't. So they got on the radio and called in fast movers. US aircraft killed more than 320 Wagnerites without a single US or Kurdish casualty. If they want a rematch, NATO would be happy to oblige.
@Jason-gq8fo
Жыл бұрын
Poland could defeat Russia by itself if it wanted to. Russia should be careful
@Marc_Gagne
Жыл бұрын
Especially when Ukraine has drained ruZZia of it's military blood.
@askarufus7939
Жыл бұрын
Underestimating your enemy is his biggest weapon
@andersbjrnsen7203
Жыл бұрын
Invade Russia? No, that is a gargantuan task, not least logistically. Whup Russian ass thoroughly if invaded by Russia? Oh yes, that would be pure slaughter.
@p.h.3987
Жыл бұрын
Thank you for your analysis!
@pertedin4924
Жыл бұрын
Thats was a whole bunch of interesting and thought-provoking ideas. Great video! Great analysis!
@DuckNatic
Жыл бұрын
Thank you.
@ekimseniar
Жыл бұрын
Anders is the best. He's unbiased, the most knowledgeable, thorough. We're all blessed to have access to have access to his expertise.
@lievenmoelants
Жыл бұрын
Good znalysis. Lets hope the adversary is acting as logical as we hope.
@stormiewutzke4190
Жыл бұрын
You always cut straight through to the point. One of the clearest voices for this conflict.
@bigd4561
Жыл бұрын
Appreciate your work.
@davidfulton179
Жыл бұрын
Your content is destination-viewing for me! Thank you for the clear, sober, well-researched analysis.
@cbrbird
Жыл бұрын
Thank you! Great analysis as usual...
@joeminella5315
Жыл бұрын
Very interesting, Anders, Thank You! You really help to dispel the fog of war!
@EEX97623
Жыл бұрын
Poland will pulverise Wagner
@RedbadvanRijn-ft3vv
Жыл бұрын
And take Belarus as there new province. Putin,the Russian leader without an army. Wel he could have some Berserkers hahahahhaha
@mynameisnobody3931
Жыл бұрын
Maybe they want to die? They are ruzzkies afterall. Seems like it's something they like to do.
@porkch0mp538
Жыл бұрын
It'd be like the battle of Khasham. But they'll need to publicize the videos of it so that the rest of the Wagner forces know what really happened. After Khasham, another group of Wagners wanted to try the exact same thing some months later. Likely because there were not many survivors of the first attack, the event want supressed in Russian media, and not publicized in western media either.
@shannonkohl68
Жыл бұрын
I suspect the Polish military is secretly sending Wagner "I double dare you!" messages.
@nanorider426
Жыл бұрын
@@RedbadvanRijn-ft3vv I think if Poland is going to invade Belarus they will liberate Belarus and install the opposition leader which won the election. But this is highly unlikely.
@290766rene
Жыл бұрын
I also do not believe that Wagner will attack Poland. It will be just like when Wagner together with other combined forces, tried to attack American special forces and Kurdish soldiers in Syria a few years ago. There it was well known that enemy forces were gathering for an attack, but the special forces waited until bandits went to attack, and then Wagner and co were completely wiped out. The Russians denied knowing anything about it until the losses became enormous.
@Katoshi_Takagumi
Жыл бұрын
I seem to remember that the US forces pretty much eliminated those Wagnerites in that incident in Syria. One interpretation of this was that since the Wagner troops were Russians, the US actually attacked a Russian unit, though it was nominally not Russian.
@mrsmith3540
Жыл бұрын
CNN told you that?
@rbstevns1534
Жыл бұрын
Before the marchnto Moscow Wagner was the best trained/equipped force in Russia BY FAR, they had T90 and T14s, modern anti air that’s how they killed 12 Russian pilots/6 aircraft that were targeting them
@rbstevns1534
Жыл бұрын
When USA defended the oil field in Syria and killed 200-300 Russians it was a fire team company which only had rifles vs the USA Air Force with B52s, F16s, HIMARS, C130 gun ships…….. total mis match
@mrsmith3540
Жыл бұрын
@@rbstevns1534 yeah and he forgot that fact that the best combat ready Ukrainian regiments disappeared in Bakhmut's "black hole" because of these "boys with showels".
@rasmusklitgaard3648
Жыл бұрын
No, ofc not. At least not in conventional sense. Belarus vs NATO isnt even a fight and by extension Russia vs NATO isnt a thing Putin is looking for.
@recoil53
Жыл бұрын
Lukashenko needed Russia's help to stay in power after his last "election", the people certainly weren't believing he won. Reports are that he is afraid to deploy Belarussian troops because he needs them to suppress a revolt. If NATO had some targeted strikes and minimized civilian losses, Lukashenko may be the one with no friends on the ground.
@jsayol
Жыл бұрын
Thank you Anders, I really needed a good explanation about the whole situation with Wagner and Poland because it didn't make much sense to me. Now it does!
@conniepr
Жыл бұрын
Very insightful .
@jaybee258jb
Жыл бұрын
Another excellent video. Thank you for sharing and enlightening us. 🇺🇦
@LR-jk2jk
Жыл бұрын
Thank you for the great video.
@ipodman1910
Жыл бұрын
Im Polish. Unfortunatelly wagner is not going to attack Poland. Big pity because that would be Fantastic target practice with all the equipment and AirPower we have now…
@Elbuarto
Жыл бұрын
Czechia recently received first Vipers from USA. It would be a nice opportunity for us to test them thoroughly.
@olegslapins8156
Жыл бұрын
So you're happy if an armed group of people would enter your country and cause a massacre with probably innocent civilian and military deaths?
@klausmortensen
Жыл бұрын
Kaliningrad, and a referendum, 98,8 percent votes for leaving RF, then Progozin have his state and, can acuse Putin for for anything 😂. Sorry Anders, allways nice to hear one with a little more brain than the average Russian speak. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦🇩🇰.
@docbogus6128
Жыл бұрын
Once in a while, a serious analyst has to deal with a stupid question. Well done, as always.
@cherrydestroyer1717
Жыл бұрын
2 years ago no one would have thought that Putin would ever be stupid enough to invade Ukraine, not such a stupid question.
@EstParum
Жыл бұрын
All media anti nato sentiments indicate soon a future war. European countries need to mobilise and deploy a 5 million man army on Russias border to escalate this war sooner than later
@beersmurff
Жыл бұрын
@@cherrydestroyer1717 well, NATO has been preparing Ukranian soldiers since 2014 for this. They might not have expected a full scale war, but everyone with a little common sense knew Russia couldnt let Ukraine be stable and take 1/3rd of their gas and oil market. We just expected they'd consolidate the 3 regions at start and then ask for peace. Them attacking directly for Kyiv and the entire Ukraine was what tipped the balance for the West to support more and what broke the neck of the Russian armed forces.
@termitreter6545
Жыл бұрын
@@StefanHundhammer Its a stupid question because everyone is prepared for it. This is litearlly the main defence strategy of european NATO, defending eastern europe against Russia. And the obvious answer is no, they have zero chance. Russia cant even defeat while comitting its entire army on Ukraine, which is a less trained army mostly relying on soviet stocks and western surplus goods. Wagners prison armies and second hand trash are even less relevant. And mind, if Russia attacks NATO, then both weapons have nukes, even if nobody uses them. So when Russia tries to waste warsaw with artillery like they tried with Kiev, then theyll get a tenfold retribution towards Moscow and St Petersburg. They cant go "we have nukes and you dont, so you better dont shoot back too hard or we genocide you".
@pagatryx5451
Жыл бұрын
@@StefanHundhammer It's definitely a stupid question. Just because you don't understand the reasons for the Ukrainian invasion, doesn't mean Putins going to randomly attack every country.
@rowanpickles1797
Жыл бұрын
Of all the posts that I listen to. Yours is the one I look forward to listening to the most. Clear and concise. What is Russia playing at? You can't write this stuff. It's ridiculous what they are doing! Thanks.
@hb1338
Жыл бұрын
Not at all. Get someone else to distract the enemy at no cost to yourself.
@pascalmartin1891
Жыл бұрын
That Wagner story looks like old politics: send a dangerous vassal wage war afar, or protect some remote border from threatening neighbors, or both. That keeps the challenger away & busy. If he dies, this is not a complete loss.. It does sometimes backfire, but it often works.
@GotchARABBIT
Жыл бұрын
I'd like to see that. Remember when Wagner was attacked by the US forces in Syria? Didn't end well for them. 🤔
@bnsbsnry
Жыл бұрын
Your talks are very informative and insightful. Thank you.
@recurvearcher6542
Жыл бұрын
Hi Anders, Thank you. Always clear precise logical thoughts on this current issue. I guess a better picture may present itself as each month passes. Great posts
@jwenting
Жыл бұрын
Another option to consider is the classic Soviet/Russian maskirovka: that Wagner's "rebellion" wasn't, was rather orchestrated by the Kremlin together with Wagner in order to give them a valid reason to pull Wagner out of Ukraine and forward deploy them where they will launch their next operation. I wouldn't hold that beyond the realm of possibility at all, it's something Russian/Soviet military and political people have been doing for a century or more.
@MrJugsstein
Жыл бұрын
Thank you for your time and insights 👍🇺🇦🇦🇺🐨
@-GreatSouthernLand-
Жыл бұрын
I agree that Wagner would not want to start an actual confrontation with Poland but I seriously doubt the opposite is true.
@neilclay5835
Жыл бұрын
I always find your insight and analysis very interesting thanks.
@jn4kp1
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the calm analyisis we need. You're my only source of the conflict news, can't trust the clickbait media anymore.
@piop
Жыл бұрын
Regarding helicopters, there are special procedures and regulations in international law for such situations, and there are also certain customs. Unless there is a war, manned air vehicles are generally not shot down, warnings are given and they are forced to turn over their own territory. Such games have been played by Russia with NATO in Europe and over the Bering Strait for decades. On the other hand, the increasingly openly aggressive attitude of Belarus is worrying.
@kamilmoucka6811
Жыл бұрын
Very, very good analysis. Keep it up.👍
@heartofarebel4098
Жыл бұрын
Could you do a video re: how Western and Eastern NATO countries differ in their perception of the Russian threat? I think there is a PROFOUND lack of understanding in the information sphere about this.
@JohnRasmussenAnyBody
Жыл бұрын
You give us unusually clear analyses of the situation. They are by far the sharpest interpretations of the situation to be found anywhere. Thank you so much for your contrbutions.
@shorea27
Жыл бұрын
I like this casual look
@chrisczarnik3439
Жыл бұрын
Isn’t it the time for the WESTERN MILITARY to END THIS WAR WITH UKRAINIAN VICTORY?🇵🇱🇵🇱🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦👍👍👍🍀🍀🍀
@8fledermaus8
Жыл бұрын
That has my full support. This flailing assistance of Ukraine by many countries, barely enough to allow the UAF to hang in, is doing much damage, both to Ukraine and it's allies. I am very annoyed with my government in that regards. Greetings from Germany to our Polish friends, Slava Ukraïni 🇺🇦
@archersfriend5900
Жыл бұрын
Great video!
@calc1657
Жыл бұрын
1. Keep Wagner under the watch of someone--Lukashenko--who Putin can trust. 2. Create minor incidents with NATO to create an atmosphere of fear to help grease the wheels of Russian public acceptance for a greater mobilization drive.
@Makrangoncias
Жыл бұрын
I really do hope. It would be fun to watch the whole of Wagner getting destroyed over a km of advance.
@MrRecorder1
Жыл бұрын
I bet NATO would take few days top spin up its engines, but then it would probably become the "omae wa mou shindeiru"-meme... I agree.
@CyberBeep_kenshi
Жыл бұрын
Lookup what they did to wagner in sudan when they tried to attack a base lol... america really sent them a message😂
@Leadbelly.
Жыл бұрын
@@MrRecorder1 Anything short of a direct hit on a major Nato city, and Russia is good to go Nato wont do anything.
@hitrapperandartistdababy
Жыл бұрын
Syria 2.0 lol
@hitrapperandartistdababy
Жыл бұрын
@@CyberBeep_kenshiyou mean the Syrian battle? Or did they also fight in Sudan?
@ondrikmi
Жыл бұрын
let's put it very simply... if Belarus or Wagner's attacked Poland ... Poland's reaction would be devastating for the Wagner group... They will destroy them within a week.
@ProfessorJayTee
Жыл бұрын
It may seem irrational to attack Poland, I agree. But Putin isn't that constrained by sanity. Let's see what happens!
@sertu1462
Жыл бұрын
While I wouldn't exactly call Putin smart, he's not completely irrational either. At the beginning of the war, even many western experts thought he could take Kiev within a couple of days or weeks. Obviously it didn't work out that way, but it's way easier to identify it as a wrong move with the luxury of hindsight. Other mistakes of his are also more obvious with hindsight than they were at the time. Like heavily relying on Wagner. Although being dependant on mercenaries is always a risk, Wagner seemed to be the most effective part of the russian forces back when they were loyal, so it makes sense why he would use them. Many of Putins decisions are like that. I'm not trying to argue that he's making the right decisions, he made plenty of mistakes throughout the war. But most of the time, there's some type of benefit he hoped to get out of each decision. He is trying to act in his self interest.
@tomjensen618
Жыл бұрын
Thanks Anders. Level headed as usual, important information in these times!
@alexscarbro796
Жыл бұрын
The third option, of course, is to mock it, draw them a picture so that they understand which side of the border is theirs and send them a new map to make sure they remember.
@Floxflow
Жыл бұрын
Excellent 👌
@duncanmurimi8917
Жыл бұрын
Congratulations for the best political analysis
@MyRendersonique
Жыл бұрын
Think your videos are always worth watching Anders. Also like the more informal settings :)
@stevenwalsh3795
Жыл бұрын
I do think it is extremely unlikely it would occur. I'd pose what was the original premise of the Wagner mutiny? Ammo and disgust with Shoigu and Gerasimov. Those 100 dudes, mercenaries might have just drove up to that place to get some ammo and refit. With the understanding there is a redemptive path for both Belarus and Russia, now go back to your land and carry out these redemptive missions... Excellent Video Content = Puck
@stevenwalsh3795
Жыл бұрын
Redemptive missions seem to be going cold...
@chuckkottke
Жыл бұрын
Very informative, thank you! 🥇
@Loneranger670
Жыл бұрын
Belarus has been smart. They now have a large, combat experienced force on their land, who dislikes, Russia which means Russia can’t “push” Belarus around as the puppet any longer. I think this is the real reason as opposed to be a threat to NATO countries.
@pgpython
Жыл бұрын
This doesn't work in reality. Wagner is not loyal to Russia or Belarus, they are loyal to money and power and Belarus cannot offer that. They only wanted out of Ukraine because they were bashing their head against the wall with nothing to gain from it
@carlosn894
Жыл бұрын
Wagner is by no means against Russia, they are radical pro Russia. They are just enemies of the current MOD, Shoigu and Gerassimov. Wagner would aid annex Belarus in a heartbeat if the opportunity arises.
@Loneranger670
Жыл бұрын
@@carlosn894 thank you. I guess time will tell. Either way it’s a shit show down there. 😂
@nilhangsamsohang7104
Жыл бұрын
Don't worry about long video.. You are like a diamond 💎 hard to break haha.. Keep it up Sir 👌👌🙏
@christophercousins184
Жыл бұрын
Fascinating and insightful as always, thanks so much for taking the time. It's almost too much to hope for: Wagner taking another run at Moscow.... I love the idea, personally.
@jonsouth1545
Жыл бұрын
You should be careful what you wish for, Putin is a bastard but he is at least smart enough to know that Russia can't have a major war many of the nationalists who would be fighting to replace him aren't that smart and the civil war that could easily erupt if Putin is removed could be a global disaster.
@Germa4945
Жыл бұрын
Well, they could take Königsberg and make it an independent Wagnerland.
@hb1338
Жыл бұрын
@@Germa4945 If they tried that, they would have Poland, Lithuania and the rest of NATO helping them out.
@stevenjohnston7809
Жыл бұрын
Great perspectives.
@chrissavage5966
Жыл бұрын
I'd expand on that, Wagner could also attack Belarus with relative impunity. Other than that, and attacking putin, they have zero chance of surviving, I absolutely agree.
@brianpeck4035
Жыл бұрын
Not Belarus! Wagner doesn't have the equipment or support of the locals. to take on Belarus nor would Russia accept such a thing...unless it was their own idea. Wagner/ Prigozian needs a job and place to be otherwise if his army dissolves then Prig is in trouble.
@Pierluigi_Di_Lorenzo
Жыл бұрын
Ridiculous. How large is Wagner in Belarus, 10 - 20K? Belarus has 60K + 340K on reserve. Including an air force.
@thomasherrin6798
Жыл бұрын
Wagner marched on Moscow and surprised Putin, Russia and the World with the ease it achieved their goal before the potty mouth chef had second thoughts (I think they would have been shot up if they went into Moscow so it was a pity they stopped short). Belarus is the best of the bad options to take than Moscow, Poland or Lithuania which would, most probably, be suicide missions now, they would require some detailed planning and a fair amount of bribes to the Belarusian military so he would have to have deep pockets. Russia would be ill equipped to send troops if Wagner could overthrow the regime due to their commitments in Ukraine for the foreseeable, one thing is for certain, Wagner are not there just to train the Belarusian troops!?!
@beersmurff
Жыл бұрын
@@Pierluigi_Di_Lorenzo Well they had 1200 going on Moscow and a lot got dispersed or transfered to Russian army. So most speculate few hundred Wagner troops at best.
@bluemarlin8138
Жыл бұрын
@@Pierluigi_Di_LorenzoI think that’s a pretty generous estimate of the size of Belarus’s military, especially the “reserves.”
@Aussie-Mocha
Жыл бұрын
Yep 👍🏻! This assessment is one of the more believable versions I have heard. Thanks mate 🎉👍🏻
@richardcranium9887
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the video, I appreciate your insight and balanced calculated views rather than some of the other 'pundits' videos here on youtube.
@brianrasmussen2956
Жыл бұрын
Brilliant content. Thanks for sharing!
@mcbellyman3265
Жыл бұрын
Very good analysis as always
@stonefrog-k6d
Жыл бұрын
Yeaaaaa....you're back!
@IncendiaHL
Жыл бұрын
I love how Anders is the only one who pronounces Wagner correctly without the horrendous American Uæægner.
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