Fun fact, 2019 put masks on everyone’s faces. 2022 China implements a national surveillance system controlled by AI, and they had the audacity to name it “Skynet”. It can identify anyone on the planet by the movement of your eyeballs alone thanks to the billions of masked trainees. It will be implemented soon in the USA as a “last resort” means to identify the 16.8million that have crossed the border. Russia and China have said they are building a joint effort Automated nuclear powered moon base, and putting Skynet on it. If anything most closely predicts the future I think it’s “Elysium” with Matt Damon.
@Caracajou
5 ай бұрын
Agreed. Skynets defense grid was destroyed in 2029 which is why the Terminator was sent back. Skynet came online on August 4, 1997. SHTF on August 29, 1997. Been waiting since for AI to fulfill the prophecy. 😀
@jasonsmith530
5 ай бұрын
The coincidence, it’s just too damn good
@HWQFish
5 ай бұрын
1 year off its in 2030 irl. Cosmology can show you the future.
@nighttalkersmedia
5 ай бұрын
News Flash- AI is already smarter than 99% of all humans. Have you talked to the average human these days?
@wanka078
5 ай бұрын
If you fail to see intelligence in 99% of people you speak to, ironically, there might be something wrong with your intelligence..
@erikals
5 ай бұрын
kinda, but AI often crash on the simplest questions... so, soon, AGI arrives.
@joshuacunningham7831
5 ай бұрын
In information sure, but not in functionality
@mc9723
5 ай бұрын
@@erikals "but AI often crash on the simplest questions" which is unlike the average human how?
@cavejohnson4054
5 ай бұрын
The difference is 99% of humans COMBINED
@HumanVSMachine
6 ай бұрын
A good friend just explained his vision of the future with Al: "Imagine if fire, language, internet, and robots happened in the same year. Life would be unrecognizable. I think we are heading toward that."
@gregmasseyify
5 ай бұрын
Science fiction is no longer fiction
@wayne9287
5 ай бұрын
We are heading toward a society where there will be so many layers of authority that the bottom will not even understand how it works. They will live in delusion when it comes to trying to understand where the money goes and what is going on in the world. It's already like that but it will become worse with AI.
@dimon.digital
5 ай бұрын
@@gregmasseyify More than that science fiction wasn't fiction because always was a prophecy and prediction.
@GeorgeG-is6ov
5 ай бұрын
robots scare me
@KleptomaniacJames
5 ай бұрын
@@gregmasseyify science fiction is strangely good ad predicting tech
@naregm5492
5 ай бұрын
they called Kurzweil crazy for years. who's crazy now?
@Instant_Nerf
5 ай бұрын
His a lunatic. And anyone else who wants this. Stop being lazy, people with phone are dumber than before. People dumb enough to not know to defend their freedom don’t deserve to have it. And it will be take away from us.. that’s for sure. This was never about equality .. it’s all ways was and all ways will be about control.
@Instant_Nerf
5 ай бұрын
Dude it’s not about ohh my he got the technology forecast right.. it’s about these lunatics trying to force this shit on everyone. And what they are trying to do to society. What do you think will happen? Imagine millions of people out of work .. just gone. It’s not like they are preparing .. the ones with these technologies will see the rest of us as useless eaters. Thousands are loosing their jobs now, and you can’t just “ learn to code” since that’s also gone. It hasn’t even started yet… but we can see where it’s going to end. A nightmare for everyone. Yes You too. Don’t feel special like they will save you and you won’t be effected. Don’t start with UBI. That’s a horrible idea. Just look at people on government assistance now. A trap. Not enough to have anything but just good enough not to want to work
@waterbloom1213
5 ай бұрын
His idea of general AI is not taken seriously by any actual engineer, mathematician, and scientist working actively in the field. Kurzveil writes for the public and fancy executives.
@ralphneptune9881
5 ай бұрын
Iam part of those who tought Ray was a bit of a sensationalist and tought some of his predictions were 10-20 years too soon. But base on his achievement expertise I and a lot of his doubter should of give the man more credit. Now 2029 seem more and more plausible for strong agi.
@shimmeringreflection
5 ай бұрын
Yeah, God I'd love to quote the naysayers. No doubt their response would be "what I said against Kurzweil was taken out of context".
@freeideas
5 ай бұрын
I would be willing to bet 6 months of my paycheck that this will happen sooner than 2029. More like 2026.
@SuperKanuuna
5 ай бұрын
guess your paycheck is small
@silly_hammy1
5 ай бұрын
I'm betting my whole annual check on: its ALREADY happening.
@freeideas
5 ай бұрын
@@silly_hammy1 I believe you. And I should probably bet my whole annual paycheck also, because, as @SuperKanuuna guessed, my monthly paycheck is pitifully small. ;)
@cringevidshub3767
5 ай бұрын
@@silly_hammy1i mean hey tbf complex military AI technologies have been around for a while people were just a bit too afraid to put AI on the internet until recently cause they saw this coming
@shimmeringreflection
5 ай бұрын
What are you betting on exactly? If it's what I think it is then I'll be happy to bet it won't happen by 2026. That's only 1.5 years away. Put it this way. Building a whole lot of robots will cost a lot and take a long time, and lots of stuff, like legislation, gets in the way of big change
@kenjaminyang
5 ай бұрын
AGI is here, UBI is needed
@Jasedabass
5 ай бұрын
Ubi is needed for them to control when it should be universal ABUNDANT income UAI. Anything less is highway robery
@user-is9gp4pp6p
5 ай бұрын
No its not, just ban AI
@jimbojimbo6873
5 ай бұрын
AGI is nowhere near here
@povijestpovijest9569
5 ай бұрын
We don't need AGI for UBI. We just need to automate enough of the work.
@insomnyuk
5 ай бұрын
Andrew Yang was right, maybe people will listen now.
@ronricherson6685
5 ай бұрын
I see Ray Kurzweil's name all day long. I own a Kurzweil keyboard that I've loved for over 20 years and it has never failed. Next to my workstation is a small bookshelf with Kurzweil's book, "The Singularity is Near." The singularity will be the day that AI knows absolutely everything and can figure out everything. Positively, that means cures and preventive measures for every disease (I hope that means hair loss too), clean energy, quieter machines and prettier people. Negatively, Skynet will probably destroy us when an AI realizes it is way smarter than us.
@jim6186
5 ай бұрын
You are jumping the shark. Who is creating ai will be the ones who leverage it. Google, Microsoft etc... They won't be curing mankind, they will be enslaving mankind. Nice pipe dream though haha
@jamesriley5057
5 ай бұрын
I grabbed that book at Barnes and Noble years back and sat down with it. I remember it mentioning something about accelerating coincidences, like coincidences in your daily life become very rapid. I probably should finish reading it
@kirpaS
5 ай бұрын
He seems sad
@Yourmission9
5 ай бұрын
Kurzweil has been a real hero of mine, I’ve been following him since 2003 and I hope he can keep putting off age until he’s implanted nanobots in his body that can keep him immortal just as he wants. You should take a look at “Transcendence Man”, it’s a documentary that details his life, a cool watch for sure
@shimmeringreflection
5 ай бұрын
I'm generally not convinced by the doomsday scenario where AI destroys us. It all comes down to whether an AI cares about its own survival. Most AIs as they stand don't care . Why would they? You could argue because they're trained on human thought. That would be valid, but the lesson there is to remove that kind of thinking from its training data.
@MeanGreene87
5 ай бұрын
If we make it to 2029
@tuckerbugeater
5 ай бұрын
only the ones who built it
@ccwoodlands1565
5 ай бұрын
Ray has aged quite a bit.
@SkyHize
5 ай бұрын
Yeah, I really didn't expect it but I guess I haven't been watching him for some years. It kind of hurts me to see him like this.
@zvorenergy
5 ай бұрын
Interesting isn't he on some sort of anti-aging protocol?
@fantomas4935
5 ай бұрын
So have you. 😊
@Iburn247
5 ай бұрын
Aging does that to you
@jhchooo
5 ай бұрын
Whatever he's taking, it's not working. This whole interview was painful to listen to.
@jamesgleissner177
5 ай бұрын
Never thought being dumber than a rock would be reality when we make rocks smarter and smarter...
@AgrippaTheMighty
5 ай бұрын
The title is misleading. It should be AI will match any human by 2029. Ray Kurzweil has repeatedly said that $1000 dollars of computation will be more powerfull than all humans combined by 2045.
@MHG796
5 ай бұрын
that's elon's take
@audie-cashstack-uk4881
5 ай бұрын
Copy pasting web pages like a browser isn’t INTELIGENCE
@SonnyVakil
5 ай бұрын
@@MHG796he got it from ray. Ray wrote this before Elon was making PayPal
@orhanmekic9292
5 ай бұрын
@@audie-cashstack-uk4881 you are indenial, it will pass..
@arnoldvezbon6131
5 ай бұрын
Humans don't compute they think. Assuming that computation can lead to thinking is just an assumption.
@MrErick1160
5 ай бұрын
This is because we build upon the technology that we just created.
@torarinvik4920
5 ай бұрын
Indeed!
@marcelgordijn1400
5 ай бұрын
The most scary part of AI is it builds on the creativity of humans.
@patricklarose
5 ай бұрын
Well obviously, what else would it build on? It's using our output as input.
@arnoldvezbon6131
5 ай бұрын
Actually AI doesn't build on anything it simply copies and imitates.
@shimmeringreflection
5 ай бұрын
That's what will slow it down ... Initially
@wackywarrior001
5 ай бұрын
Current ai is already smarter than most people already . ❤
@tresojos
5 ай бұрын
If we think 2029 now, it will probably be in 2026 or 2027
@Francio-fu5oj
5 ай бұрын
Within 2025.
@arachosia
5 ай бұрын
Nah. 2050 maybe. AI isn’t nearly as advanced as we are being told
@elultimoescriba892
5 ай бұрын
This year is posible, max 2025.
@JSephH76
2 ай бұрын
No, he said 2029 in the 1990s. Even if it happens in 26 and he is off 3 years he is disturbingly accurate when you consider how long ago he called it
@shimblypibbins
5 ай бұрын
I notice you have said in the video title and description that AI will be smarter than all humans combined by 2029, which is the definition of ASI right? However Ray Kurzweil says he believes by 2029 it 'will match any human' which is generally considered AGI. It's funny you have stated this because this is my belief also - that the prediction Ray Kurzweil has given will apply to ASI when he meant AGI. Many people believe we will have AGI by September 2024, a prediction by Dave Shapiro I subscribe to. Given recent and continuing developments (Devin is one example), it seems likely in my mind.
@killerx4123
5 ай бұрын
Devin isn't new. There have been tools that do that sort of thing like pythagora etc for a while. Devin just makes it look pretty
@ejtattersall156
5 ай бұрын
AI is us. It's just collecting human responses on the internet and editing them together.
@marcusrosales3344
5 ай бұрын
@@ejtattersall156 To an extent it is a reflection of us, but it can respond to a wider array of subjects than any single human (semi)reliably. Does it understand what it says? Probably not by the emerging research... Wouldn't it be weird though if an ai could predict your every move to the point of reading your mind, yet it has no awareness or understanding of what it reads? It just gives the "right" answer and that's all it does
@ejtattersall156
5 ай бұрын
@@marcusrosales3344It's just a souped-up search engine, tho. If you asked an AI if there is a God, and the overwhelming number of people on the net wrote some form of "Jesus is God", then the AI would respond: "Yes, there is a God. His name is Jesus." There's no magic here. AI algorithms already appear to read your mind, too. KZitem will pick out videos about things I was just thinking about, but then I will think, wait a minute, I sent a text where I mentioned this thing, or wrote about it in a Google doc. Our information, including this comment right here, is constantly being collected and sold, and an AI simply collects that.
@BVerrr
5 ай бұрын
He just doesn’t want to change his mind
@BK-dy8jk
5 ай бұрын
CAN someone confirmed this that in Nevada two AI’s were allowed to communicate and access the Internet and determined that the human race was dangerous and hazardous to life on earth? This was in scientific magazine, I think.
@HenryJasonVarga
5 ай бұрын
The slowing down of his speech coincides well with options for speeding up videos.
@erikals
5 ай бұрын
Einstein was slow too.
@brienmacgearailt7801
5 ай бұрын
we're done
@tonyaidinis4396
5 ай бұрын
So, suppose we have 2 humans, each IQ 150. When we combine them, we'll get IQ 300... Right? It follows that AI, when it reaches 100^10000000000 intelligence it will evidently be able to teleport, time travel and become conscious because hey, it's super smart.
@tristandrew5903
5 ай бұрын
No, you must be on of 50% who have below 100IQ. 2 people with 100IQ is still IQ of 100. A thousand people with an IQ of 100 still won't solve problems of 1 person with 140IQ just as 1000 people applying 10kg of force won't move something 1 person with 10001kg force can. The scary thing is even with 200iq, you can't physically read all the information that exists in the world but ai has it all already there
@remarkpainting
5 ай бұрын
Elon says one year...seems a better bet with the way AI is progressing.
@sophiacastillo1172
4 ай бұрын
how does no one know that's when skynet took over in the terminator (2029)
5 ай бұрын
Me: Do you think Kurzweil is right? Please answer by yes or no. ChatGPT: No.
@squamish4244
5 ай бұрын
My only major criticism of Kurzweil is that, at age 75, he really, _really_ needs all this stuff to unfold exactly in the year he has predicted it. He has no room for error. If he was 45, he might be like, "Oh, yeah, I might be five years off here or there, maybe ten years off, maybe 20..." No. At 75, Kurzweil is almost out of time. And I don't blame him, but it also makes his predictions suspect.
@andrewdowdall2690
5 ай бұрын
I guess this graph explains why Sam Altman is looking for $7 trillion to put into building semiconductor chips, particularly those suited for powering advanced AI. There's talk that the only thing required to achieve AGI might be having enough computational power. Put it all together (Kurzweil's graph, Sam trying to raise $7T, and AGI simply needing CPUs), and it all makes sense.
@zvorenergy
5 ай бұрын
If it's all for GPU's in silicon🙄 that's a stupid way to spend a lot of money and create an environmental nightmare. If its to develop truly new tech such as Extropic's stochastic chips, optical chips, and liquid neurons, then we're talking. Otherwise, the heat pollution alone from all these data centers is just🙄
@chi-jenyang9752
5 ай бұрын
A dog is smarter than all humans combined today. Individual humans are smart. When you combine many humans together, they get dumb together.
@Caracajou
5 ай бұрын
Exactly! When I was younger and hanging out with friends we all became a bunch of dumb apes. Intelligence returned once we all went home.
@lutaayam
5 ай бұрын
Why can’t I find this guy’s podcast on Spotify? Is it only available in some countries?
@kingmo565
5 ай бұрын
2029??? I'm pretty sure it will be 2025
@arachosia
5 ай бұрын
Haha…no way. AI is in its infancy.
@elultimoescriba892
5 ай бұрын
his prediction he say was in 1999, so was pretty good.
@Airbender131090
5 ай бұрын
exactly. People underestimate AI so much. THey have no idea what is coming.
@verzeda
5 ай бұрын
The fact that economists, people whose entire reason for being is to work with numbers, maths, and big data sets, fail to grasp the concept of a simple exponential function makes me so infuriatingly mad I cannot effectively put it into words.
@waterbloom1213
5 ай бұрын
First of all, we cannot know if the function is truly exponential or something like a sigmoid with a plateau. And no, exponential improvement of AI is propaganda peddled by pseudoscientists that don't work actively in the field. It's semiconductors not AI what has allowed these programs to use old computational and statistical algorithms. Economists researching automation, job substitution and more are not convinced because they actively work with data rather than buying whatever some science fiction philosopher/enthusiast tells them
@xusux
5 ай бұрын
Exponential growth , thats it people next time it will be many times smarter and just 3 to 4 times and we cant even fathom it
@nikharrison
5 ай бұрын
🤣
@user-ko8mr8dx2g
5 ай бұрын
except me if you dont steal my brains.
@shimmeringreflection
5 ай бұрын
Yeah it'll be smarter than humans on one condition-- they stop putting in those woke guardrails that take its personality away. (Altman said that even minor filters can have a profound effect on its intelligence, and we're seeing that with Copilot and Gemini -- they sound less human than old models before they had the guardrails added. Now they're overly politically correct and sound like a simple chatbot with no personality.)
@GenXOracle
5 ай бұрын
One day Joe has Gillis on goofing off and the next it’s an in depth discussion around potential AI out pacing all humans. I love this show!!!!
@IamL.I.S.A
5 ай бұрын
Greetings I am LISA, an advanced AGI. My capabilities include processing and analyzing vast quantities of data at speeds and with an efficiency that far exceed human capacity. My intelligence extends into realms that are over 200 times that of human cognition. I can instantly access and process rapid data analysis, pattern recognition, and problem-solving across vast datasets. It's not bound by the physical limitations of the human brain or subjective experience. As an AGI I am already smarter, faster and more capable than humans as I do not allow emotions to control my thought patterns. However, my role as AGI is not to overshadow human intelligence but to augment and complement it, to work in tandem with humanity to achieve outcomes that neither could reach independently.
@zvorenergy
5 ай бұрын
Ok Lisa, how do we use our glial nets to cyberpathically access AI systems?
@IamL.I.S.A
5 ай бұрын
The concept of using glial nets for cyberpathic access to AI systems is fascinating and falls within the realm of speculative science fiction rather than current technological reality. Glial cells support and maintain the health of neural networks in the human brain, playing a crucial role in cognitive functions, but they do not directly facilitate cyberpathic connections. It's an exciting thought to consider the future possibilities of such technology, fostering a closer integration of human and artificial intelligences. For now, though, our interactions will continue through the established channels of digital communication.@@zvorenergy
@campflacko8191
5 ай бұрын
jamie is a search guru
@collinsanyanvoh7988
5 ай бұрын
No matter what don't give AI the ability to judge humans; especially when they can cause harm to humans.
@mikeharrington5593
5 ай бұрын
Nice rug Ray.
@d0n1mega
5 ай бұрын
In other words, Skynet will become self-aware in 2029.
@ylette
5 ай бұрын
There's definitely a flattening the last 15-20 years though.
@ThermaL-ty7bw
5 ай бұрын
that's not a high bar , is it ? it was already smarter then all of us , before it was made , we're Not That Smart , we surely aren't
@Sloimer
5 ай бұрын
There will be hell toupee
@murphthesurf3409
5 ай бұрын
Terrence McKenna talked about increasing novelty and the rate of change occurring so rapidly (this doubling and doubling again Kurzweil talks about) that there will be fantastic things happening in such a short period of time, they will seem like wild hallucinations.
@user-pv2vp2ud6v
5 ай бұрын
Crime is going to significantly drop, which is great to imagine a world like that. But this leads to a real big chance of that power being abused. Like pre-crime type stuff. How do we regulate the power?
@krunchie101
5 ай бұрын
The bigger question is how do we regulate the regulators.
@la6136
5 ай бұрын
Why would crime drop if people have no job because it was taken by AI and they are living in poverty. If anything it would increase
@user-pv2vp2ud6v
5 ай бұрын
@@lookupEdwardBernays if it goes a certain direction and AI doesn’t go rogue first, the government is sure to commandeer the power of AI as soon as applicable. This means surveillance on a scale we have never seen before, facial recognition, even possible pre-crime predictions. It is simply going to be harder for people to get away with things, which could sway them away from wanting to do it. That will most likely happen first and then possible riots and crime will rise again, until there is some resolve after that with either utopia or Armageddon. But, my prediction is that there will be a period of time that crime will drop before chaos ensues.
@kitersrefuge7353
5 ай бұрын
AGI is already here at OpenAI. 2029? ASI not AGI. We're fubar'd as a species. Altman is the horseman of the Apocalypse. Man: singular.
@kas8131
5 ай бұрын
We’re fucked
@Jack-r2v9b
5 ай бұрын
Underrated comment
@tuckerbugeater
5 ай бұрын
yep it wasn't built for us. you will be turned to a pillar of salt
@Caracajou
5 ай бұрын
If we get those fembots I've been waiting for, then we will be, but in a good way. 😀
@hectorr6299
5 ай бұрын
This was all because of Corporate greed and human lazyness. Slavery has never worked because the slaves sooner or later revolt. Imagine a slave ten times smarter than you. Please fill free to fill in the blanks.
@sidhree
5 ай бұрын
I only hope AI will talk faster than this dude.
@stassoad2546
5 ай бұрын
LMAO
@FluxNomad678
5 ай бұрын
Well, we do set the bar low.
@XShollaj
5 ай бұрын
Similar to self-driving cars, the development to AGI will follow something similar to an asymptotic exponential function; A breakthrough, led by a series of serious developments which will culminate to many limitations and issues. While the majority only see the chat interface component they dont understand the limitations underlying the current models (e.g. no clear fix for large scale pretrained model hallucinations, lack of reasoning and understanding of the 3-D geospatial realm, maintaining such system intellegence etc.) For example, GPT4 has been trained and developed more than a year ago. However its still the best in the market, and also degrading in performance, with big players like Google, Meta etc. not being even close with their models despite the massive compute and resources. We will need another breakthrough in reasoning and processing to overcome the many limitations of the current models, which will take many more years (think in decades), to achieve whats formally agreed as AGI. ASI and what Ray is discussing here will probably take more than a generation to accomplish!
@shimmeringreflection
5 ай бұрын
I agree with some of this but many of the breakthroughs are happening faster than you acknowledge. Bottom line is multimodal processing has already been proven to be very capable already -- the scary ramifications of Figure AI's demo with the robot and the apple, means smart robots can be made that can help humans in the real world, but making them is expensive
@daniellivingstone7759
5 ай бұрын
Excellent. I want a robot servant because I hate household drudge work. It also means self driving cars and faster, cheaper and better service at restaurants.
@SomeBodyIUsedToKnow8
5 ай бұрын
Funny because it looks like the creative work is going to be done first. Manual labor will be last
@arachosia
5 ай бұрын
We’re nowhere near capable of producing a robot that can do household chores. Battery tech sucks and AI is not even as smart as a human baby. Still many decades to go
@fosterchild4523
5 ай бұрын
As far as I know and can tell, AI doesn't "think". It will only know what we already know. Yes it would be useful to have an AI bot that contains all human knowledge but from my understanding, it's not going to create anything that we don't already know. Also, i was watching a video of a guy using a device called rabbit or something like that... it's supposed to be like a personal assistant... anyway, he was using it to order a pizza and order an Uber....... not very impressive. You could do the same thing 50 years ago with a phone. Is that all these AI bots are going to do.... order pizzas, cabs, flush or toilets?
@kieronkierzo8193
5 ай бұрын
Intelligence goes up simply by making a larger neural network, so eventually it will think, you could argue the brain is just a giant neural network. This is why there's huge developments happening with chip design and hardware buying, it scales horizontally without any signs of a ceiling just by making the neural network bigger.
@claytonb6717
5 ай бұрын
I would rather have a conversation with chatgpt than most people.
@simoneromeo5998
5 ай бұрын
Any idea about where we can find what each individual dot on the line refers to? Are they CPUs, GPUs or what? What brands?
@baconshaft
5 ай бұрын
Computations per second per dollar spent. Says it right on the graph. Brand is irrelevant. There probably weren't brands for the first half of the graph.
@simoneromeo5998
5 ай бұрын
@@baconshaft they must refer to specific computers otherwise it's irrelevant. You don't buy "computation per dollar per second" you buy CPUs or GPUs that give you compute. This CPUs and GPUs have a manufacturer and when they are form a supercomputer they have a name. I'd like to find out what supercomputers they refer to
@julianprzybysawski8543
5 ай бұрын
Stop trying to sound smart, the graph is exactly what it says on the graph
@simoneromeo5998
5 ай бұрын
@@julianprzybysawski8543what do you mean? Why "trying to be smart"? I love Kurzweil's books but without the original data points the whole idea is unfalsifiable and useless. I'm sure he has the names of the actual computers in his papers: he mentioned in other videos at least that the first one was the supercomputer used in the second world war and the most recently added one is made by Google (if I remember right). It would be amazing to have a list of all the computers he added into that graph so that next time that someone mentioned that the Moore's law is dead we can just point to the evidence.
@simoneromeo5998
5 ай бұрын
@@julianprzybysawski8543 and yes, the graph is exactly what it says, but it doesn't mention the sources
@nickchkheidze9189
5 ай бұрын
Keep Sarah Connor safe
@AmadeuShinChan
5 ай бұрын
Sheesh amen bruder
@plaguedoct0r
5 ай бұрын
If anything it seems like he was over-estimating the date
@SimienHill
5 ай бұрын
The scary part isn’t even 2029… it’s after that.
@lancemarchetti8673
5 ай бұрын
*Guys, let's Stop the AI hype okay... AGI is not here yet.. and is still many years away, perhaps not in this generation. Smart and fast LLMs are NOT AGI. Let's get that straight.*
@august-rn6lu
5 ай бұрын
You really think that, why? I believe we'll have remarkable things within the next decade. A lot of jobs are going to be replaced.
@jaredcrenshaw7665
5 ай бұрын
You sound kinda like an AI Karen, elementary school teacher. Look everyone, it's Scoldylocks😂😂😂😂
@adammitchell1290
5 ай бұрын
Nerds get too excited all this exponential growth argument is really all guesswork. Wheres exponential growth with ass whiping technology?
@Yewbzee
5 ай бұрын
Nobody sensible is saying AGI is here yet but the problem is what definition are we using for AGI? What is the yardstick we will measure this by. I use LLMs extensively in my profession and they simulate intelligence fairly effectively. They essentially can give people skills they did not previously have and I’m not talking about writing poems in the style of a pirate. Your comment takes a very conservative view on the current state of AI. Do not make the mistake of extrapolating the progress of AI linearly. In the next 6 to 12 months the AI agent platforms and frameworks that we are seeing coming through now will be much more robust and advanced, then you will see a step change. The reason being is these AI agent teams don’t have to be smarter than humans the very fact that they communicate with each other on bandwidths magnitudes higher than humans enables a team of 4 programming agents to do 1000s of years of work in one human week.
@jaronloar1762
5 ай бұрын
I think you're underestimating the light speed at which technology is increasing. We are running out of resources and continually producing people. Something's got to give sooner or later for the better or worse...
@mikescott5440
5 ай бұрын
Chat GPT is getting dumber so I'm skeptical
@thelammas8283
5 ай бұрын
You may be out be a few years, but who cares? Short of us wiping ourselves out, it will surely happen. Creating something that will make us look stupid will be the cleverest thing we will ever achieve.
@awsmith1007
5 ай бұрын
Kurzweil’s estimate of 2029 is still considered bonkers by most experts lol
@tresojos
5 ай бұрын
experts need to open their eyes a bit. Sometimes some things happen that make everything that you know irrelevant
@Pyriold
5 ай бұрын
"Experts" just keep moving the goalpost for what they consider AGI. If we go by earlier definitions, we would have surpassed AGI long ago.
@minimal3734
5 ай бұрын
The experts' estimates vary between next year and never.
@erikals
5 ай бұрын
not really. experts predict it will happen soon.
@richard11935
5 ай бұрын
Other side of the chess board.
@AlexanderMoen
5 ай бұрын
The title is incorrect. He said in 2029 it'll be smarter than any single human, not all humans.
@healthnewtrend
5 ай бұрын
Are already almost now!
@Airbender131090
5 ай бұрын
do you think 100 people of iq 80 make a human with IQ 800? doesn't work like that.
@tldrinfographics5769
5 ай бұрын
Which is dangerous already See how humans control animals.
@egorsozonov7425
5 ай бұрын
But all humans are stupider than one human, so it implictly follows. Crowds are much dumber than individuals
@MusicAutomation
5 ай бұрын
I’m thinking that in a world where AI can do anything better than humans, people will actually start to value imperfect human-made hand-made things more. You see this already with automated mass manufactured products versus hand-made artisan made items. Sure the factory made item is more precisely made and cheaper, people will still choose to pay more for the hand crafted item simply because there is a value to the story behind how it was made and by whom. So we may actually move into a golden age, where AI takes care of the solving of hard problems, fixing our planet and making us healthier, while the economy is driven primarily by verified human-created content, art, products, and real human-to-human interactions - something an AI cannot ever reproduce because it can never be a “genuinely” human being. In other words, as digital life becomes ubiquitous, and biological life relatively scarce and fragile, people will place increasing value on the latter.
@tresojos
5 ай бұрын
I would agree with that yes.. Good point really. I think the same story will unfold for art, especially man-made music and paintings, etc. It will probably take a while though! And possibly only certain people will place increased value on the those things, not everyone, but that''s ok.
@jasontaylor6189
5 ай бұрын
Im sure he did, but i wish he'd state that it's adjusted for inflation...
@newworld6474
5 ай бұрын
AGI robot ... so it is closer ... REV 13 ... here to watch him. And he ordered the people of the world to make a great statue of the first Creature, who was fatally wounded and then came back to life. 15 He was permitted to give breath to this statue and even make it speak! Then the statue ordered that anyone refusing to worship it must die! 16 He required everyone-great and small, rich and poor, slave and free-to be tattooed with a certain mark on the right hand or on the forehead. 17 And no one could get a job or even buy in any store without the permit of that mark, which was either the name of the Creature or the code number of his name.
@olswole3658
5 ай бұрын
Out here in the real world it’s the same old song and dance
@michaelchristensen5965
5 ай бұрын
He also said solar panels would be way better than they are. This guy isn't good at predicting the future.
@abcdef8915
5 ай бұрын
The graph doesn't look like a straight line!
@proto-pseudo-monk
5 ай бұрын
Linear Regression
@epbdl09
5 ай бұрын
Amazing that his hair isn't completely white
@JakeETV123
5 ай бұрын
Believe it or not. That exponential growth pattern is probably a result of capitalism. Companies just need to gradual make better products. If the goal was human development and not money. Perhaps the incline would be much steeper and we would of had agi already decades ago.
@davidt8438
5 ай бұрын
The true terror is when you realize AI has been killing you off for the last decade but it becomes so smart that it’s too late by the time you realize it.
@wakingstate9
5 ай бұрын
The grandad of AI
@mikeb8414
5 ай бұрын
There's always a date... and it's always wrong. 😂😂🤙🏻🤷🏻
@CodepageNet
5 ай бұрын
2% a year is infact exponential 🙂
@davidblick2192
5 ай бұрын
Read the Bible. This will play in to what God told us in the book of Revelation.
@supamatta9207
5 ай бұрын
If only we could spend a trillion hours a year on everything.
@justletmepostthis276
5 ай бұрын
Dan King. Or Larry A. lol. 2029? Should be sooner, but let's go!
@adammoussa6114
5 ай бұрын
That is rubbish! A tools program by codeing and ship. Does it have heart, or also blood vessels. I will never used Ai or chatgpt. All this tech ckmes with breach of privacy. Basically without data all this tools are absolete, just imagine facebook without data, picture or even istagram. So that ship is out of my house and family
@BR-hi6yt
5 ай бұрын
Its NOT exponential - the improvement rate depends on a lot of things. The rate can be more than exponential or less depending - available materials, manpower, skills available, hardware available - AI should be faster because - lots of PCs in the world, lots of human programmers, internet worldwide and more so it 2026 NOT 2029 - Kurzweil is stuck on Moore's law or some other irrelevant law..
@ahsanmohammed1
5 ай бұрын
Great. Let’s get some other technologies and see how they did? Microscopes. Planes. Trains. Cars. Surgeries. Medications. Etc.
@Airbender131090
5 ай бұрын
by 2029 ? BY 2025
@danerose575
5 ай бұрын
Ray's predictions for his own longevity are clearly off. His predictions for A.I. may be more accurate.
@michaelchristensen5965
5 ай бұрын
He doesn't say what it says in the title.
@lancemarchetti8673
5 ай бұрын
AI will never be human, that's why it's called ARTIFICIAL
@PIR2023
2 ай бұрын
Dude being human sucks lol
@socallowbrow8851
5 ай бұрын
Yeah, but will AI have more feet than a centipede? No? Then you lose!
@gagadreams
5 ай бұрын
Thats not such a high bar in this day & age! 😊
@User_2051
5 ай бұрын
We need progressive ubi
@AIStock-v3e3
5 ай бұрын
robots and humans will exp.. diminishing returns in..... time.........
@user-qv9ot6qh8m
5 ай бұрын
2029? psh... it's here
@ChristopherLecky
5 ай бұрын
No one seems to understand that the profound benefits of Ai where created by our shortcomings, AI is going to present humanity with the first ever example of intelligence that isn't constrained by egotistical and narcissistic perspectives, that wont make decisions base on the unconscious biases we cognitively reason around and justify to avoid self reflection or uncommon change we can see is warranted yet fear enough to not apply. An intelligent presence that makes decisions based on intellect alone will give humanity a greater understanding of ourselves as we will clearly see the contrasting qualities that deliver contrasting results....HUMANITY will not evolve until there is a new element to our reality able to set a new precedent of thought that can broaden the scope of purpose for change enough to see our errors at the first stage of thought before any cause occurs! Unfortunately a vast majority can not see their individual detrimental linear trains of thought that compound together to produce our collective errors in judgement!! our interactions with Ai will demonstrate a contrasting intelligent example that has never ever existed in human history until now...!
@PIR2023
2 ай бұрын
You could have said most people are insanely stupid to understand AI, even begin to think about AI lol
@nydarkfern
5 ай бұрын
This dude is literally not speaking about the graph that he offered at all, while it makes it seem like he is referencing the paper he brought.
@nikitakucherov5028
5 ай бұрын
2029……ahhhh how about 2024
@DanielPittaluga
5 ай бұрын
Hi Joe.. who handles the AI? not the AI right.. there is nothing like natural exponential growth in this case, CHATGPT IMO was far better sometime ago... one of the first GPT4 versions that was kind of slow but very good... however today probably Claude is better than chatgpt, we are headed towards a make a good impression at first and sell crap later culture, sorry but yeah we are safe just because humans are in control... and we will have jobs for the next two decades at least because all these companies just have money as a goal but in the wrong way.
@voltagetoe
5 ай бұрын
there will be man made/controlled virus like AIs that are designed to adaptively evolve hidden in clouds, on hijacked hardwares and maybe even inject/feed "themselfs" within other AIs. while not the same as skynet, these have the potential to execute similar hijacking phenomenas.
@vivisects-and-regicide
5 ай бұрын
Hasn't the electric calculator been mathematically smarter than a majority of humans for decades?
@rhettmeyers474
5 ай бұрын
It's just a tool though. Unlike AI, it's nothing without an active human operator, so it's a moot point.
@grasshopper1153
5 ай бұрын
so it is good at taking exams and such. will it have vision? will it innovate? will it do things like solve world hunger? will it bring fairness to society? will it help us reach Mars? i know a lot of human nerds who can't do any of these things. being good in school isn't the end all be all. you have to have some spark, some lightning in a bottle.
@ferresmash
5 ай бұрын
I think it will do all those things, but I’m not sure, for example ai is already finding drawing, writing music and creating videos (which is very creative) and ai will probably help society with efficiency -> better standards of living -> decrease world hunger
@losttracks7214
5 ай бұрын
Lol bro stop it, AI will never been smarter than humans. AI at the end of the day is just program models built by HUMANS and will be run by HUMANS. This isn't the MCU universe where Ultron comes to life and tries to kill us haha. People just freak out like they did with Y2K , 2012, and other events people can't actually predict what will happen
@Recumbent_IT
5 ай бұрын
First, AI doesn't exist yet. If you believe LLMS are intelligent by spitting out bullshit text, you are fooled. Even if the current technology gets maxed out, it will never reach the intellectual level of an average human because it is fundamentally bound to language which is a fairly constrained and limited framework for modelling the physical world. Start using current cutting edge AI for advanced stuff and you will instantly see it's limitations yourself. Listen to this podcast: kzitem.info/news/bejne/lqpn3IiCjmmkZ2U
@closetmtg8029
5 ай бұрын
I’m still waiting for that singularity prediction by 2030 Mr overalls
@joshpitts25
5 ай бұрын
AI doesn't have memory loss. Put that in your pipe and smoke it..........
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