He was ready for this one cause he called it for 3 days!
@llla_german_ewoklll6413
Жыл бұрын
Saw this one from my house. It was like the whole wall cloud dropped to the horizon.
@moldtechgustafson
Жыл бұрын
LOOK AT SW IOWA LAST YR MARCH 5TH A EF-4 TORNADO!
@MrJsauce63
Жыл бұрын
pretty crazy year so far, and models showing even more concerning storms occurring that could bring tornadoes. i hope im wrong about this, but judging by the data from years before and the forecast la nina dissipating this spring, i really feel like 2023 is gonna be a year that will be remembered from its tornadoes, like 2011. probably wont be nearly as bad as 2011, but i really think this year will be bad.
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how things play out.
@progenitor_amborella
9 ай бұрын
Well... that was my first time in a HIGH.
@garretts.2003
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for everything you do!
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
Wow, thank you so much!! That really means a lot; can't thank you enough for your support!
@garretts.2003
Жыл бұрын
@@ConvectiveChronicles No thank you! You're an expert at your craft and the way you break down complicated subjects makes it approachable for novices like me. Your skew-t/hodograph series is absolutely unmatched on KZitem and I've had a blast following along with all these outbreaks this year. I've learned so much and can't wait for this upcoming spring. I hope you're able to get out and catch some tornados! Happy trails!
@garretts.2003
Жыл бұрын
Another textbook cold core event for Iowa. Judging by this last year, Iowa seems to be the tornado alley of cold core events. Thank you Trey! I've been loving all the breakdowns lately and I'm really looking forward to surface analysis series. This winter sure has been keeping you busy!
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
Thanks so much! It has definitely been a busy winter!
@garretts.2003
Жыл бұрын
@@ConvectiveChronicles Have you ever thought of making a Patreon? Your content has been helping me a ton and I'd love to support you anyway I can.
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
@@garretts.2003 I really appreciate that! I have thought about making a Patreon before, and I've had some folks ask about it. I may end up making one at some point. For now, I do have Super Thanks turned on; there should be a button underneath each video where you can contribute.
@garretts.2003
Жыл бұрын
Awesome thanks Trey.
@moldtechgustafson
Жыл бұрын
DEC 15TH 2021 WAS THE CLASSIC LATE SEASON NORTHERN PLAINS TORNADO OUTBREAK EVER 70S IN IOWA AND 70 SE MN
i love your videos bro. you are so good at explaining these events in detail.
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
Thank you; I appreciate that!
@matthewgraber6930
Жыл бұрын
Is it possible to do a case study of the Plainfield, IL F5 from August 1990? Idk if there’s enough about it but it was a bit out of season and pretty far north for a F5 tornado. Interesting case
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
It’s definitely on my list! Only tough thing about the older events is some holes in the data archive, but this tornado is notable enough where I’d be able to find enough to create a video.
@matthewgraber6930
Жыл бұрын
@@ConvectiveChronicles gotcha. I’ve lived in the Chicago area my whole life, even studying meteorology at Purdue (B.S.) and Illinois (M.S. in progress) and it’s definitely talked about in Chicago history quite often. Kinda just snuck up on everyone
@EverydayLJnz
Жыл бұрын
That was quick! Cheers- I really do worry about you guys in America, the amount of outbreaks in January is pretty crazy- is this more than normal or is it just that I started following outbreaks?
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
It’s not unusual to see active fall/winters stretches, but this has been unusually active, at least with regard to the number of significant events. We’ll see how that bodes for spring.
@NeonBeeCat
Жыл бұрын
@@ConvectiveChronicles i wonder if the spring will be relatively tame this year again, well see when we gst there
@StrmchsrHunterF
Жыл бұрын
Really great to be able to look back now and see the meteorology behind it while I was busy out chasing this tornado. Something that I thought was interesting that I wanted to mention here, when I was right next to the mesocyclone in the inflow I never found temperatures in the mid upper '50s. When the storm was north of Williamsburg and the wedge-like tornado lifted I only found temps maybe 50 to 52 as the tornado finished which was really cold in my opinion but yet it was still able to produce that second tornado that I saw not too long after. Maybe that's part of the reason why the tornado lifted is it experienced those mid to upper 50s and then occluded when in the lower temps/dews. Really a Frankenstein-like Storm that looked like it was a supercell out in the plains with 3000 sbcape. Love the analysis man, killing it!
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
Thank you, Hunter! Awesome job yesterday. I suspect the cold temps you were feeling were a result of the storm being literally right on or just barely on the cool side of the warm front. If you look at the 19z surface map at 2:30, you can see the warm front is right there in SE IA, right where that storm was. Must’ve tracked right on the front and then dissipated when it crossed it.
@kelley1721
Жыл бұрын
i dont think you can determine iowa just on cold core events. look at parkersburg or jordan ef5 events
@meghanhause9435
Жыл бұрын
I saw this form on Vince Waelti's live stream and he was the called it in and got the storm warned.
@lifeintornadoalley
Жыл бұрын
I hope one day you join our SoT community! 99% chasers, history buffs on tornado history, also operators of tornadoarchive. Anyone may use tornado archive for history of most all recorded tornadoes. Huge project that's been expanding
@kelley1721
Жыл бұрын
last dec 62 tornadoes in one night. it shows that while frequency happens during la nina intensity strengthens during la nada
@kelley1721
Жыл бұрын
in ames iowa you could see anvil and overshootind top around 12:30 pm
@moldtechgustafson
Жыл бұрын
THAT VISIBLE SATELITE SHOWED THE SPIN IN THAT CYCLONIC LOW PRESSURE AND THE CLEARING SPOT WHERE THE SUN WAS HEATING IT WAS A GREAT WRAP AROUND COMMA SHAPED LOW PRESSURE
@harryparsons2750
Жыл бұрын
A tornado and another funnel cloud?
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
The storm produced a large tornado near Williamsburg and then a brief one near Cedar Rapids.
@GenericPast
Жыл бұрын
Would the dew points being in the 30s in northern Missouri, but temps still in the low 60s, have also created a dry line advancing into Iowa?
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
In this case, that wouldn't necessarily be the dryline, that would be the cold front. Sometime cold fronts can have dryline characteristics (i.e. drier air behind it, more moist air ahead of it).
@kelley1721
Жыл бұрын
@@ConvectiveChronicles cold core tornadoes dont need dry lines per se.... cold air is more dense and therefore can get pulled in easier and at a faster rate look up leigh orf. tim samaras helped him a lot with research and the math can get complicated but he makes things easy to understand
@kelley1721
Жыл бұрын
cold core tornadic conditions is what pulled in the winterset iowa ef4 last march
@caitlyn5076
5 ай бұрын
Wow and we had another cold core setup this year on the 16th in Iowa too 😮
@Cdunlapweather
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the video you never fail
@fluwliss8312
Жыл бұрын
Doing my hand analyses last night in preparation for today definitely had me doubting the moist advection… the trough structure certainly was impressive! it was already stacked pretty much at 00z last night. Very fun forecast!
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
Definitely an interesting forecast! I too wasn’t sure the moisture would make it, but cold core setups don’t need much!
@rektspresso7288
Жыл бұрын
I did go out chasing but didn't make it in time before the storm weakened :/ it's January so I can't complain though
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
Hey, it happens! Plenty of time left in the year.
@aaronjones1469
Жыл бұрын
Awesome👍🙂 video. This was a very rare event for Iowa especially in the month of January. Great job explaining the process of its formation. This is one reason why I like watching your content, you explain things very clearly.
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
Thank you! Always appreciate your support!
@aaronjones1469
Жыл бұрын
@@ConvectiveChronicles Your welcome.
@brandonwilliam2618
Жыл бұрын
That storm was beautiful i checked the radar and when I saw the confirmed tornado i watched Vince’s stream. I hope to do some chasing this year around the stl area. I just hope we get something, last year was not great for severe weather in the stl area.
@tornadoclips2022
Жыл бұрын
Wow! I was watching reeds stream while this happened
@meghanhause9435
Жыл бұрын
Reed was just watching the RADAR, it was Vince Waelti that saw it and called it in.
@tornadoclips2022
Жыл бұрын
@@meghanhause9435 yep I know
@windwatcher11
Жыл бұрын
Well done! Great presentation, and so quick. I'll never forget this set up. Glad we didn't get a full ED from it.😅
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
Thank you! Looks like this tornado did some minor damage, but it's always good when a tornado event occurs without casualties.
@flippinjigzncatchinpigz8902
Жыл бұрын
let me just say thank you for your content… we deserving of credit on your breakdown analysis! bad ass content🤙🏼
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
It’s my pleasure; thanks so much!
@DanRoss-sg6yq
Жыл бұрын
Thank you for creating all these videos - great information and insight. I chased this setup, but positioned just a little too far northeast and missed this tornado by minutes!
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
Thank you! Hey, it happens…plenty of good setups to come this year.
@extremestormspotterdavidS
Жыл бұрын
Amazing Video! I will watch your other video on cold-core tornado environment. what do you use to draw on your screen in the video? I have a MacBook Pro.
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
Thank you! I use a Wacom Intuos Tablet and a Mac app called Presentify.
@kelley1721
Жыл бұрын
do you think weakening la nina plays into this. la nada is on the verge?
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
Not really for this particular, singular event. La Nina is weakening though.
@kelley1721
Жыл бұрын
@@ConvectiveChronicles but does a neutral phase maybe have effect on bigger tornadoes
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
@@kelley1721 Not enough research to say for sure; the linkage is very weak at this point.
@samde3432
Жыл бұрын
Do you think 2023 will be more active for severe weather compared to last year
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
We'll see. Some early signs are pointing to an active season, but it's just too early to tell.
@kelley1721
Жыл бұрын
@@ConvectiveChronicles yes.... look at memorable ef 5 events and they can be contributed to la nada events yet theres very little scientific research behind it that is why i am chasing this year
@jaredpatterson1701
Жыл бұрын
Wish I could see one like this out in the open 😪
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
You will! The day will come, just takes patience!
@MetallicAAlabamA
Жыл бұрын
This is why I love anything and everything weather. It may seem like it is just weather to some, but to weather junkies it's a plethora of amazement lol. And this system is another reason people should always take weather seriously.
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
So true!
@MetallicAAlabamA
Жыл бұрын
@@ConvectiveChronicles Question. Is it just me, or does the low heights of these storms (20,000' - 30,000') make the base of these storms look lower also? Reason I ask is that visual of that tornadic storm's base looks lower.
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
@@MetallicAAlabamA I wouldn't say the height of the storm and the height of the cloud base are related; however, I think the reason these bases were so low was because we had really small temperature-dew point spreads. For example, Ottumwa was 57/52, giving us a 5 degree spread (probably slightly less to the north where the storm actually was). That's going to result in some low storm bases. I also think that, as a result, even though the tornado was a pretty large one, it was probably pretty weak and only looked like a wedge because the cloud bases were so low.
@MetallicAAlabamA
Жыл бұрын
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thanks! Makes sense now lol.
@moldtechgustafson
Жыл бұрын
NOT A LOW TOP SUPERCELL THAT CELL WAS TALL
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
The storm was only about 30k ft tall, which is much shorter than a typical supercell (50-60k ft tall).
@moldtechgustafson
Жыл бұрын
NO WAY IT WAS TALLER I GOT THAT RADAR SCOPE IMAGES AND I KNOW SUPERCELLS BREAK 60 TO 70,000 FT
@moldtechgustafson
Жыл бұрын
GARBAGE STORM CELLS ARE 30,000 FT YELLOW ORANGE ON RADAR SCOPE, SUPERCELL LAST MONAY HAD SOME PINK COLORS IN IT
@ConvectiveChronicles
Жыл бұрын
That’s not true. Supercells in environments of limited instability, like this one, can be 20k-30k feet tall. The intensity of the reflectivity has nothing to do with how tall the storm is.
@kelley1721
Жыл бұрын
@@ConvectiveChronicles reflectivity can be subjective as well remember while radar shoots out in layers radar can be off... thats why spotters are important bc radars can actually be off by 1-2 miles. the NWS will explain that in spotter training courses
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