Baldy-in-Chief David Reimer has a special Sunday update on the possibility of scattered severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening in Northwest Texas, the Big Country, western Texoma, western North Texas, and parts of the Concho Valley.
Unlike last Monday and Tuesday, we're not expecting a repeat of a multi-day severe weather event in Texas. A few days ago, it looked like we may - but that higher threat of severe weather has shifted north toward the Central Plains of the United States.
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may develop after 4 PM Monday east of a dryline located in Northwest Texas south into the Big Country. The risk of storms has shifted back east (mostly) out of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. We'll have to monitor the eastward progression of the dryline tomorrow in case it holds up further west. If that occurs, the risk for a few storms may also begin further west.
A strong capping inversion, or lid on the atmosphere, will work to prevent thunderstorm development tomorrow. That 'lid' and a lack of stronger upper-level lift tomorrow afternoon will work to limit the number of storms we deal with tomorrow. Likewise, we'll see that 'lid' become stronger as storms move east toward Interstate 35 in Texoma and North Texas tomorrow evening. Storms that do develop tomorrow afternoon and evening will weaken as they move east into those regions.
Large to very large hail, along with localized damaging wind gusts, will be the primary hazards of tomorrow's thunderstorms. If we have intense, sustained supercells in Northwest Texas, a low tornado threat may materialize between 6PM and 10PM. Storms will weaken as they move east/northeast during the mid- to late evening hours.
As the more substantial upper-level lift arrives late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, a Pacific cool front will push east/southeast. Those two ingredients may be enough to fire off thunderstorms in Northwest Texas, Texoma, and North Texas. This is a lower-probability scenario that may result in strong storm potential. We'll refine this possibility in tomorrow morning's Texas Weather Roundup.
Our current forecast keeps a vast majority of Texas severe-thunderstorm-free tomorrow and Tuesday, with only isolated to scattered stronger thunderstorms. As the Pacific cool front moves east on Tuesday, we may see a few strong thunderstorms fire up in the afternoon hours across the Ark-La-Tex, Northeast Texas, and East Texas with gusty winds and hail.
Our current forecast keeps severe thunderstorm potential
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Негізгі бет Ойын-сауық Monday: Storm Chances return to Northwest Texas & Big Country
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