News in from Ripple on Graig Fatha. First full month Graig Fatha generation numbers. Initial indications are that the Graig Fatha turbine had exceeded the most optimistic estimates of output for April 2022. This is despite wind speeds lower than modelled and the turbine being switched off for periods for testing and servicing. Generation was 462,000kWh whereas the P75 level we based onwnership on suggested 407,000kWh of output for April. This is 13% above the P75 level set out in the share offer document.
@anthonydyer3939
2 жыл бұрын
I just did my research into this scheme. I asked a few questions to Ripple, and my understanding is that if you own a share in the wind turbine capacity, your revenue stream is in the wholesale, not the retail, market price of electricity. E.g. you own 1kw of capacity. In a particular 1 hour time window let’s say it generates the full capacity. Let’s say you also consume 1kw in that same time window (let’s say 35p/kWh). My understanding is that your bill not cancelled out. You pay retail price @ 35p/kWh minus the turbine revenue share @6ish p/kWh. You’re still on the hook for net 29p/kWh import price. In fact, it’s not correct to call it a “saving” at all. It is a revenue stream that’s paid via your electricity bill, but completely independent of your domestic consumption. So, it’s not like a micro wind turbine wired directly to your consumer unit where you save on money on retail price imports. In fact it’s more like investing in public company shares (specifically an electricity generation company). If the wholesale price is high, then your revenue is high. If the wholesale price goes to zero (or below), then at best there’s no revenue. There is some risk reduction - wholesale prices are fixed according to power purchase agreements, and are not subject to wholesale spot prices. But I do wander: Is it best to invest in a fixed asset, or the electricity generation company owning an equivalent fixed asset? They have separate financial risks, but with public company shares you can at least sell your share according to public market rates. I’m not sure whether it’s possible to transfer your asset share to a 3rd party at a price agreed between you and the 3rd party, or whether you are bound to that asset without any opportunity for selling your share.
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
I'm aware of all the points you raise however that was not the purpose of the video. I never set out to explain how the investment worked and what it could mean in terms of payback. Which is why I never went into the details. I also stated right off the bat that as with any investment do your own research and I'm not a financial advisor. There's certainly risk but that can be said of any investment. 6,000+ individuals have chosen to invest over the two project. Time will tell how that pans out. Project 3 is already underway.
@stephenshannon3706
2 жыл бұрын
Agree with everything John has said about this. In addition, the wind blows at night too. You get credit for all your share of the power generated, whenever it is generated, thereby building up a buffer of surplus in summer, and hopefully generating more in the worst winter months, when solar generation is quite low. When considering return on investment - it’s worth pointing out that the benefit is portable to a new address. This will particularly help people who anticipate moving in the short to medium term.
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Stephen, good additional points.
@peterjones6640
2 жыл бұрын
With the Kirk Hill wind farm offer now closed, I have just noticed that Ripple has now opened reservations for its next project, as yet unspecified, possibility it could be a solar farm. Bearing in mind the enthusiasm shown for Kirk Hill, and the likely further increases in electricity prices I have already reserved my space for the next offering.
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Yes I'd seen that too on my Ripple Dashboard. I will probably drop the £25 and see what they offer as a project. Might be offshore wind or as you say solar.
@NH-hf8yp
2 жыл бұрын
You need to be careful which WEC type and model you are buying into due to issues with replacement parts maintenance crews available to repair the faults to get the best return on your investment. Kirk hill would be my choice due to the location and WEC type. Great idea though!
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
This is an excellent point, thank you. Too late now with Craig Fatha time will tell I guess. Thankfully I have 75% of my investment in Kirk Hill.
@markbrice2928
2 жыл бұрын
Hi John, another informative video. I missed Graig Fatha as had just invested in 2 powerwalls. I signed up for Kirk Hill when the offer went live and purchased 3,199kW for 10,151kWh usage which equates to 76% of the current estimate annual usage.
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Great to hear Mark, amazing how many people are signing up.
@lynnfisher4396
2 жыл бұрын
Hi John Thanks for doing this Ripple production as you said you would. We are torn, like you we have maximised our solar pv arrays and have a Powerwall. Unlike you we don’t use massive amounts of electricity, our total consumption for 2021 being only 3249 kWh and grid draw 824 kWh. Even adding the Enyaq won’t put that much on the grid draw. The Calculator on the Ripple website says take off your solar production from your consumption which would lead us to be minus 800 kWh. We love the idea and had our consumption been more we would probably have gone ahead and used the “savings” to subsidise our gas use . One thing we did think of was that with a massive offshore and continued onshore investment in wind plus extra pv going up everywhere, the price of electricity delivered by renewable energy will fall. That increase in provision and subsequent fall in prices will happen quickly, (a) because it’s in the governments and countries best interests and (b) because people will see the current level of electricity prices and want to get a piece of the action. That’s not to say that the latter is not desirable, that’s after all, one of the reasons we went for pv when FIT payments were high in 2012. Another factor is that we are both now in our 60’s and any pay back may take 10 years to accrue, we don’t believe the current inflated prices will last for more than a couple of years or so. We will use the money to diminish our gas use in another way, probably by increasing insulation. Cracking video though and helpful in many ways. At the end of the day each individual must think about their own personal circumstances before making any financial decision. Your opening comments about independent financial advice were particularly relevant and we hope listened to as avidly as the rest of the video
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Lynn for watching. Agree with your thoughts and analysis 100%. If you're not a high user in terms of grid import and already cover much of your usage with PV then it does not make sense. Who know what the pricing structure will be 10 years or so down the road. I'm sure you are right about it being cheaper which will reduce share profits, but I'm cool with that. Any investment is a bit of a gamble as there's so much outside of ones control. For us it seemed like a good idea, however it's not suitable or right for everyone.
@smordon
2 жыл бұрын
I wonder what is the cost per kwh after cost of maintenance and cost of supplier’s (octopus). Can you calculate it somehow ? Because the method they calculate this saving is not transparent.
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Not sure if this answers your question. Looking at the share document for Craig Fatha it states the following: The total operating costs of the project are estimated at about £135,000 per annum. This allows for the: operation and maintenance of the turbine; insurance, land rent, business rates, community benefits, maintenance of civil and electrical works, and Ripple’s costs for managing the society and project. This works out at approximately £20.00 per MWh of generation. Operating Finances: Average wholesale price received (£/MWh) £58.00 Rego and embedded benefit value received (£/MWh) £7.00 Total average value (wholesale price + REGO) £65.00 Average project operating cost (£/MWh) £20.00 Expected average saving achieved by the project per MWh (£) £45.00 Ripple savings rate, which for Graig Fatha members for the first year is 9.64p/kWh
@nsheikh
2 жыл бұрын
One thing I don’t understand, if I purchase 100% of the electricity I use each year, the website states that I will receive up to 25% off my electricity bill. That doesn’t make sense to me. Any ideas John?
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
The number of watts you purchase and your % returns are not linked to your overall electricity consumption. They use your generation figure as a guide to help you determine how many watts to purchase. It's perhaps not the best way to represent it, but it gives most people a point of reference. In short if you invest 100% of your usage you will still get an electric bill. You will not be in a position of having no bill, or even better, getting paid to use your electricity!
@Jaw0lf
2 жыл бұрын
Great video, agree with you as I have also bought into Kirk Hill (Easier to talk about!) and with it ending today am wondering about increasing my share due to my ASHP and EV. I also have a high electric use as love my tech and have a smartish home meaning lots of things need to be left on standby. Ouch!
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
LOL at easier to talk about Kirk Hill. There will be other projects no doubt, so even if you decide to hold off you won't miss out in the longterm. I have added smart switches to tech items and put them on routines within Home Assistant to turn off at certain times to save some standby juice.
@bignoodle4798
2 жыл бұрын
Hi John, just wanted to say that I have watched a lot of your video and enjoyed them so much. They have been very helpful in providing me with information so that we can have Solar and EV with our home. I am looking into Ripple and have read the Share Offer Document. Do you know how the wholesale price agreement between the wind farm and the Energy supplier works? I mean do they this annually etc..
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks for watching I'm please to hear my videos are useful to you, thank you. I'm not sure how the energy market works for pricing agreements. I do know that the agreed price is fixed for 12 months, but not sure how or with whom that is negotiated. I guess, and it is only a guess, that Ripple agree the price with the suppliers who are taking the energy.
@brianrussell6988
2 жыл бұрын
I used to live near Kirk Hill, you should get plenty of wind generation when it’s up and running later next year. Brian
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Good to know Brian.
@colinwalker9583
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks John, watched the first video where you mentioned the wind farm idea which piqued my interest. Did my own research and it seems a be a reasonable investment etc. I am currently waiting DNO approval for Solar and battery which is taking a long time. Took the plunge after watching this video, used the referral link above so I hope that works.
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Ah bless you Colin thank you. Yes agree about it being a reasonable investment, time will tell as always with these things. History on pricing is a good indicator that we won't lose out. I've just checked my dashboard and not seen your referral yet, might take a day or so, will check again in a day or so and let you know. The DNO's can take some time, usually one person to view, review and decide. Fingers crossed you get what you've asked for.
@petewilcock
2 жыл бұрын
Cheers John. Feeling adventurous so I've just bought 120% at Kirk Hill using your link. I'll probably forget about this now for 16 months until the turbine goes live!
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Thank you for the referral. Well done on going large, it’s the best way.
@petewilcock
2 жыл бұрын
@@johntisbury Go large or go home!
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
100%!
@darrendobson9878
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks John Been following your videos for a while and appreciate your detail Currently have 8kw solar and powerwall 2 on order and awaiting installation Based on your investment to craig wind farm how long do you expect it to take to break even
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Darren. To be fair I've not really worked out the return on investment timeline. Taking the average repayment of 5.3p/kWh for the year based on annual generation of 3,094kWh. 0.053 x 3,094 = £163.98 a year. Should take 12 - 13 years to get my 2K back from Graig Fatha.
@JCoo12
2 жыл бұрын
@@johntisbury - have you calculated the TAX implications within your calculations as depending on tax code and existing allowances, HMRC will be happy to take your profits.
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
It's unclear how the tax implications will be applied. Take for example FiT payments, they are not taxed. It's an interesting point which I'm sure will be cleared up over time. It's unlike the HMRC to miss an opportunity to extract taxes, however I'm not sure where this fits within their framework.
@arkadiuszbialy9150
2 жыл бұрын
Thank you John for this informative video. I live in a rented flat and since the investments is "portable" I've just purchased 756 Watts of the turbine. ( I used your referral link) I hope the wind will blow for all of us nicely for the coming 25 years. All the best.
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Thank you for watching. I've seen your referral link on my dashboard, thank you for using it, much appreciated. As you say, let the wind blow!
@peterjones6640
2 жыл бұрын
I invested in the Kirk Hill wind farm, I would have invested into the first wind farm had I known about it before the share offer closed. I consider it a useful addition or alternative to PV on your roof, depending upon individual circumstances. I have covered around 50% of my electric consumption with a plan to invest in further wind farms should they be offered by Ripple. Some key points for me about the investment are that I am likely to be moving in around two years time so did not want to invest in solar PV on my roof. The investment in the wind farm can be smaller than the typical investment in an economic PV system. The other key advantages over PV is that even if you rent your property you can invest in a wind farm, your investment is not tied to a property. You can also invest if for whatever reason solar PV is not practical for you, eg you live in a flat. So few downsides in my view, although you should pay close attention to the Ripple share offer document as currently part of your return, depending on your tax status, will be subject to income tax, although I understand that representations to HMRC are being made to the return considered as analogous to a “ FIT” payment.
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Peter for watching, good additional points you’ve raised, thank you for those. I’d heard the mumblings about the tax implications. I’ve heard both sides stating; impact and no impact. We shall see.
@michaelbaxter1706
2 жыл бұрын
John can you stop coming up with this great content please, as now I don't know what to do. I was planning on getting solar with battery storage. 6.6kw on a near as dam it south facing room with zero shading. The company I was going to go with will only fit 3.9kw as they don't want to scaffold over the lower roof. So I am now not sure what to go for. Solar and go big current usage around 9kwh per day. Future proof for possible electric heating. Or invest in a wind turbine. Or solar and wind turbine and not bother with battery. Keep up the videos I think I have watched most of them.
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Ah thank you Michael. Apologies for making your life difficult. Tricky choice. I’d suggest going for home generation first if this is your forever home. If not then the wind turbine will travel with you.
@michaelbaxter1706
2 жыл бұрын
Hi John yes it is our forever home. I will carry on the planning for solar and battery system. But the wind turbine is a very interesting proposition just a shame I am not swamped with money. Would love to get the gas disconnected and generate all our own energy.
@edc1569
2 жыл бұрын
Start with as much solar as you can fit, then add evicts that help you maximise use of the energy, I.e zappi and eddi
@michaelbaxter1706
2 жыл бұрын
@@edc1569 That's what I thought. Can you keep adding to an inverter or do you need multiple inverter as I have plans to put a covered roof on a open veranda area. And add more solar. Which is again due south with no shading.
@michaelbaxter1706
2 жыл бұрын
@@edc1569 I don't have a electric car and can't see me being able to afford one for quite a while. But my boiler does take preheated water so planning and hoping that I can put a hot water cylinder in to be heated with excess solar so no gas bill over summer at least.
@briancollis9352
2 жыл бұрын
Hi John, about to invest but it's asking me for a gift voucher code 12-digit alphanumeric code do you have one of these?
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
A gift voucher is different from a referral code. The referral code link should take you to a page to get a quote and then create an account
@christopherballard1933
2 жыл бұрын
Great Video John 👍😎
@johntisbury
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks for watching Christopher, glad to hear you liked it.
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