FYI, this podcast was recorded in Feb, 2018. He mentions the current date at @23:00
@francretief1
3 жыл бұрын
Love your guest, but please refrain from long verbose questions. The same question can be asked succinctly in a fraction of the time.
@EnerGeezerSquirrel
3 жыл бұрын
Sandy was AT LEAST as pissed about the timing than you're transmitting to the viewer who didn't see Sandy's vid. [ I did } His points about union resistance influencing political decisions seemed a bigger burr under his butt than the NHTSA probe.
@DavidCoxDallas
10 ай бұрын
he clearly wasn't counting on North America's fracking revolution nor Russia's Ukraine invasion.
@alexishart1989
Жыл бұрын
I have a guest idea: get Tony Seba back on again. Can't get enough of what he has to say.
@tiborberky3687
3 жыл бұрын
All predictions are correct (as entry point of a new technology, or a feature)! But, I would say the general appereance of a new technology doesn´t automatically mean that it will be overtaken at once by everyone and dominates that industry. E.g. in the energy industry the solar or wind energy can be the cheapest resource, but it can´t be reached at the same time everyone, each community (there are also lobbies, political forces ...). Or, the car industry can be transformed in this decade and reach the rate of ~80% in new cars in 2030 ... but it doesn´t mean, that in the car-fleet it will reach more, that ~30%. I´d say, there is also a "human factor" , that depends on, "how fast people can learn ... how far everybody can "congest" the new facts". I believe, that many people will say for a long time, that "a traditional Mercedes is my dream and I will choose forever".
@mattobadia
3 жыл бұрын
The fleet may reach a % similar to what you stated but miles driven is what is important.
@luvkansal6096
3 жыл бұрын
I think u don't understand distruptions Like what happen with nokia Within a matter of 2 years nokia was wiped and all the market was of smart phone Same will happen with ev and autonomous tech. As ev will have much enhanced performance, less cost, 1/5 cost to run and 5 times more lifecycle. Their is no match and I don't see any reason why any consumer will buy gasoline car once ev reach the tipping point
@tiborberky3687
3 жыл бұрын
@@luvkansal6096 I believe I understand exponential development ... but !! ... I also believe, that the mobilization/transport, or an energy system is much more komplex, than a Nokia, or Kodak "effect" ... and they won´t become fully homogenous in the next 10 years ... in 2030 there will be autonomous EV cars and taxi companies using them ... but the mobilization won´t only consist of such taxis. Or the energy system can consist of many SWB (local) subsystems ... but there will be also many other conventional power stations ... (it´s not a smartphone, or flat-TV). For example in Europe (projected) the transition to renewable energy will take another ~25 years (and should be fossile free first in ~2045, now it´s in the range of ~30-40%). It´s a difference whether the time of a disruption arrives ... or a ~100% system transition takes place, that uses this disruption. In the transportation e.g. many countries still use horses (for local transport of goods), but the truck exists since 1910-1915 ... If you say, in ~10 years the oil consumption will be reduced ~30% ... it means, that the usage will be still ~70%.
@rajeevbhadauria8343
3 жыл бұрын
@@tiborberky3687 What Tony has also said that when the demand comes down by 30% the price per barrel comes down disproportionately to $20-25 per barrel which makes most types of production of the incumbents unviable. It is at that point that the oil industry gets dramatically disrupted and it’s continuity comes under question…!!70% production of the current level becomes severly challenged to continue..!!..for pure lack of an economic incentive anymore these production channel will give up..!!
@EnerGeezerSquirrel
3 жыл бұрын
The reality will hit them when they're told that their "dream-kar" can't be legally driven anywhere...I doubt many dreamers will pay dearly to have their dream rust away in a garage.
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