It was a special date change operation by the Russians on your video
@TromboneSteve
Жыл бұрын
Came to the comments just to confirm what I thought you probably meant. lol
@wishusknight3009
Жыл бұрын
Looks like you gave away the easter egg.
@Bryankips
Жыл бұрын
God bless Russia ❤ China's
@wishusknight3009
Жыл бұрын
@@Bryankips Bless them with what? A super soaker of holy water?
@KapitainZino
Жыл бұрын
Brilliant explanation of the current state of views on the counteroffensive, better than everywhere else. The math part isn’t everyone‘s favorite, but it got explained well understandable for the public. A must see channel!
@amazin7006
Жыл бұрын
His explanation for Bayes Theorem was good if you were teaching a class, but I that doesn't work well in youtube format. The relevant topic sort of gets lost in the convoluted math. Humans are inherently bad at understanding probabilities that aren't 0% or 100%, and that's one of the issues with Bayesian reasoning, it's a superhuman/less intuitive way of viewing the world. Sean Carrol has a great podcast on this and how you should train yourself to view reality itself as a set of probabilities based on priors. It's more important than ever to getting a more truthful picture of the world (especially today when we're bombarded by disinformation, propaganda, and bots).
@seanabbott798
Жыл бұрын
"They're making headway but it's slower and more costly than anyone estimated." This is how offensives against an entrenched foe usually go.
@frankfedison5203
Жыл бұрын
The Soviet Union had two newspapers - party approved, of course, called "Pravda" (truth) and "Izvestia" (news). The running joke was "in the truth there is no news, and in the news there is no truth." 😂
@comradeurod9805
Жыл бұрын
You gotta love soviets making fun of their government
@ViktorWahlberg
Жыл бұрын
Nice video. I would argue that Ukraine's possible failure isn't just based on expectations being high though, it is also based on what people think Ukraine needs to achieve in order to maintain support. The west claims to support Ukraine until the end, but we all know that is at best misleading. If the counteroffensive ends without consolidated gains behind the Suruviken line, I expect the critical voice of war support to get louder and more supporters. It will be difficult to convince anyone casual that all the support was not just blown away. People feel the economic impact of the war and they likely blame a lot of Covid related economic problems on the war as well, so calls to focus more at home would not be unexpected.
@arturobianco848
Жыл бұрын
And extremly stupid but i agree with you that would happen. to combat that it would be wise to make long lasting commitments you can then point out to the idiots that shouldn't have voting rights that we are already committed and if we wanna have any return on our money we best keep supporting them. I don't think that just pointing out that its way cheaper to keep supporting Ukraine to the end in the long run does it for those people.
@neoieo5832
Жыл бұрын
@@arturobianco848 eh, there are just below 260 million people above the age of 18 in the us, try convincing all of them
@arturobianco848
Жыл бұрын
@@neoieo5832 I basicly given up on Americans. I don't know a more ignorant and selfdestructive society as that one. Russia and others might be worse but i don't have a personal experience with those. The only ones that come close are the English. I'm getting this sneaky suspicion that it has something to do with the politcal/voting system wich is very simulaire.
@dynamicwarfare
Жыл бұрын
@@arturobianco848 (with respect) Our voting system seems to have an issue of polarization and deadlock. Particularly our two party system has created an 'us versus them' mentality which ultimately gets nothing critical done. As for the ignorance, our nation has the benefit and defecit of essentially being an island because the two neighbors we have wouldnt dream of raising arms against us (except Alaska). This allows the us to ignore the situaton overseas and beyond because if we want to, we can close ourselves off from the world and we have done so in the past such as before pearl harbor when the US had a strong isolationist policy. Meanwhile other countries have to think more pragmatically because they might share a border with a hostile power. And the self-destruction? Maybe, but I hope not.
@arturobianco848
Жыл бұрын
@@dynamicwarfare You pretty much nailed it yes. Also youre basic education sucks. Well maybe not the very basic stuff but the rest isn't that great. As for the selfdestructivness. i would suggest looking at the enviromental footprint of the avarage ameican and compairing it to other rich country's, Maybe look up how healty the financing is for the infrastructure in your suburbian earia's. The liveability of your city's, your cardependency your avarage acces and aforabilty to medicalcare and the safety issues. And compair those all those with other richer country's hint don't include England.
@Genexperiment100
Жыл бұрын
I Love your explanation of Bayes Theorem. It is a powerfull tool that is hardly used on a day to day basis although it actually is very usefull. I currently work on bringing a bayesian perspective to science curricula in school, so I hope the knowledge get's more widespread and used in the future.
@peterd9698
Жыл бұрын
I hate this whole narrative of “Ukraine has not shown expected success, cut off their support”. That’s like “The firefighters holding back the approaching forest fire have not shown expected success, cut off their water.”
@hmhmoinsdk
Жыл бұрын
thing is water might save your house - support to ukraine might save their house also water is cheap - tanks arent politics being politics there always will be people willing to promise they will give the money to their people instead of the ukrainians - even tho nobody is getting paid in old m113 point in case: in germany there is one party that is very pro russia - they want to lift all sanctions etc. promising lower prices to return that way cut of support to ukraine cause it costs money and does not affect german interests in the world - this party has increased it`s share in polls from ~ 10% before the war to ~20% now other parties might very well think " well we might win a few % back if we decrease support for ukraine"
@PrincessSachiko
Жыл бұрын
Me too, I really hate it. Ukraine's slow progress is a reason to give MORE support, not less.
@asan1050
Жыл бұрын
William Spaniel, ThanksMuch!
@charlesbeaudry3263
Жыл бұрын
It is still ironic that the guys that were supposed to steamroll over the Ukraine military in Kyev in 10 days are still slogging it out 18 months later. We can agree that Russia has lost already and for them to win will require, at a minimum, Russia to switch to total war conditions and massive mobilization.
@larryclemens1850
Жыл бұрын
I had a broad range of prior belief possible outcomes regarding this offensive. The caveat that extends Ukraine victory furthest down the road being that victory over a numerically and technologically superior force is usually measured in a years to decades time frame.
@Rednecknerd_rob9634
Жыл бұрын
Numerically superior, sure, technologically superior? Eh, given that Russia's having to goto China and now North Korea for stuff, I think says a lot about the state that Russia's really in. But I do agree that a Ukraine victory won't happen by Christmas, lets say, but rather in terms of years like you say.
@cloudpoint0
Жыл бұрын
@Rednecknerd_rob9634 400,000 Russian fighters against 1.2 million Ukrainian fighters (maybe 1.5 million). On the front lines, they are about equal. Where is this numerical superiority?
@Rednecknerd_rob9634
Жыл бұрын
@@cloudpoint0 Well I was thinking population ways.
@cloudpoint0
Жыл бұрын
@@Rednecknerd_rob9634 Don't count eggs that aren't hatched. Russia had a partial mobilization while Ukraine had closer to a full mobilization. Russia would collapse if it tried a significant mobilization (e.g. 1 or 2 million men). It doesn't have the West's deep pockets to fund one. Ukraine did and still does. Russia might try another small partial mobilization to raise enough fighters to stall Ukraine for a little longer. Putin is convinced the West will give up on Ukraine eventually, after a few years, so he just needs to hang in there. (I know they won't give up.) Ukraine could conscript its way to 7 million fighting age men (no women) if this is really necessary, and if the West provides the military equipment and kit. Civil society would still pay a huge price though and this so far seems unnecessary in a mechanized war where soldiers are less important. Weapons (technology) matter more. But Ukraine will match Russia and replace its human losses.
@matthewwoods6972
26 күн бұрын
This is a lesson that UTK should learn. Before they pay yet another football coach, one hell of contract buyout.
@PeterP552
Жыл бұрын
Are we any further in judging success or failure, I dont think so, but thats my opinion. Always worth watching William's contributions.
@13thmistral
Жыл бұрын
I just look at the goals Russia's last offensive in the winter tried to take the whole of Donbas region. It failed. Ukraine goal was a wedge between the landbridge before the bad weather. This will likely fail, though it still could actually happen so far. How this will continue is unknown.
@ChosenOne6666
Жыл бұрын
The U.S. recommended to take out all assets launchers, tanks, radars and all other heavy armour. Come to find out Russia only has so much left in the stock.
@benjones4365
Жыл бұрын
That was the U.S. recommendations?
@ChosenOne6666
Жыл бұрын
@@benjones4365 You have severe comprehension problems.
@morrowj74
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for reminding me about the paper. I was going to suggest that I pick you up and we get something together.
@mikelipton6116
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the math lesson! Great video.
@imkharn
Жыл бұрын
Ukraine to USA : we are getting heavy losses.... Wait.... Was this strategy picked for us to win or because it costs Russia the most money?
@Deamon93IT
Жыл бұрын
The issue here is expecting Ukraine to breakthrough prepared positions as if it was a walk in the park. Besides there is something important to know: while it would be awesome for Ukraine to reach the Azov Sea from the get go, it isn't strictly necessary to get an impact. After all, they are already not that far off from threatening the railway with long range fires, and if indeed ATACMS arrive they may be able to strangle Russian logistics without actually retaking the whole strip. In any case, only time will tell
@picklesan772
Жыл бұрын
Never give a dictator what he wants
@ypointNull
Жыл бұрын
This is a hilarious back track. Came a bit eearlier than i expected tho lol.
@Jakeurb8ty82
Жыл бұрын
A family member has an alternate theory - they were all dead before they boarded the plane.
@MissyGail4eva
Жыл бұрын
I swear and declare, Spaniel, that you could analogize Chess Boxing to the war in Ukraine and make it seemingly relevant.
@advancetotabletop5328
Жыл бұрын
Russia is losing. That’s all I need to know.
@abdalle3483
Жыл бұрын
Russia still occupies Southern ukraine and Donbass, and ukraine lost 7 times more soldiers than russia lost. But you still believe Western progoganda to feel good 😢😂😂
@chandelier6811
Жыл бұрын
So how many losses has Ukraine taken?
@kaydkaydkayd
Жыл бұрын
im horrible at statistics so the beginning terrified me ngl
@awesomehpt8938
Жыл бұрын
The first victim of war is the truth
@私はクソな中国人です
Жыл бұрын
Nah, it is yo mama
@mikewalker4723
Жыл бұрын
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Жыл бұрын
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Жыл бұрын
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Жыл бұрын
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Жыл бұрын
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Жыл бұрын
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@Urkinorobitch
Жыл бұрын
If the ZSU makes it to Tokmak before winter would be amazing in this situation, it would be huge progress.
@xxnoxx-xp5bl
Жыл бұрын
I'd say the offensive is clearly going well based on 'prior beliefs', or context. Ukraine was expected to fall - it didn't; Ukraine wasn't expected to be able to strick back and regain territory quickly - it did; Russia has repeatedly mobilised more troops hoping to turn the tide - and failed. Everyone said that Ukraine would lose an attritional war but they are slow pushing Russia back, while Russia plans to rely on the same strategy that has already failed to swing the war back in its favour.
@Beanbag753
Жыл бұрын
Very informative, thank you
@Hession0Drasha
Жыл бұрын
You are correct, no one watches american football outside of parts of canada and the usa. The us only picks national sports, from the ones with no international competition 😂
@walsterdoomit
Жыл бұрын
👍for the algorithm. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
@HansLemurson
Жыл бұрын
The hardest thing to predict is the future.
@Chuck_Hooks
Жыл бұрын
I judge it by the number of Cope Tires Russians now put on top of their aircraft. How about that math?
@stevendebruijn576
11 ай бұрын
This is mostly copium for dealing with an obvious military disaster. I understand your theory, but since you don't want to be a casual observer, it means you have to look at additional context to determine whether the offensive is a success or a failure. I agree that looking at the current result is inconclusive and that prior expectations heavily influence this judgment. However, Ukraine is short on manpower, materiel, and willingness from its allies to keep supporting it. They've started recruiting teenagers. Nazi Germany did the same thing near the end of their war. War is a numbers game, and a nation's ability to sustain a war decides the outcome. Whether Ukraine gets F-16s or not is not going to decide the outcome even a little bit. Whether they have a long range missile is not going to decide the outcome even a little bit. What matters is logistics, manpower, supplies, and whether an army is organized to win wars. The Russians weren't organized to win wars until they started adapting to the situation they found themselves in. Now they are more organized to win wars than the US military. Long story short, the counter offensive is a decisive failure. The Russians expected them to break through the defensive line which never happened. So even if they did break through, they would still have failed. Because the Russians would simply have retreated to their next defensive position and start the process all over again. Meanwhile, manpower, logistics, the same war mantra - harder now because you have more ground to protect and more vulnerabilities. Why do you think the Russians retreated in the first place? So they have to cover less ground and have an easier time defending. So while you're arguing that the offensive is a success because "prior beliefs" the truth is that, at roughly 400-500k casaulties, the Ukrainian military lost most of its combat capability and no magic weapons or news sets of expectations are going to change that. Russia knows this and they don't care about a timeline. They'll grind it out for as long as they have to. If history taught us anything, it's that Russians are the best at grinding out their enemies in wars that leave empires devastated.
@colinadevivero
Жыл бұрын
Please keep thinking and writing in your unique style. You are the best, (tied with Perun), writer on these matters.
@matthewvicendese1896
Жыл бұрын
Considering the arrival of F 16s at the end of this offensive, and likely ATACMs as well, reaching the sea isnt the be all and end all. The attrition on both sides and whether or not Ukraine has fire control over Russian supply lines is what matters. If Ukraine can get to Tokmak and secure it and up to 10km south of it then all of Kherson and Zaparezia becomes untenable for Russia.
@SteifWood
Жыл бұрын
Since you have no clue about The World Sport I suggest you switch to ManC and put Haaland in the equation ....
@herbertkeithmiller
Жыл бұрын
You sir Have now become the math on maps man. (I love alliterations) And bouncing burger bar graphs. 🤭
@ellcaa4220
Жыл бұрын
Manchester United is awful, they haven't won anything in a while and no one expects them to win much. They're getting better now, but they're haven't been considered among the favorites to win anything in quite some time. Better examples would be Real Madrid, Manchester City, or Bayern Munich.
@garyswift9347
Жыл бұрын
lol, game of thrones quote: "winter is coming"
@sylviamaresca8852
Жыл бұрын
Long story short,it's going well for Ukraine considering they depend on the agreement of third countries to send them equipment they need. Like F-16's
@VictorSadkov
Жыл бұрын
Bayessian formula and distribution shifts are great for perspective and is one of the most important concepts in statistics (right after "not everything looking like a hat is actually a fucking normal distribution") and one of the most underused in real life. So all that stuff is great. Nevertheless, you are basically saying that how we call the counter-offensive depends on the initial expectations. Sure, we can call it anything from total success to total failure, but that's not that important. What is important is not what this counteroffensive progress means for the counteroffensive itself, but for the war in total. And basically (not surprisingly), again, given human and materiel resources of each side, unless Ukraine blitzkriegs to Moscow, the war of attrition is inevitably lost by Ukraine sooner or later. So even if we consider this counteroffensive a success or a huge success, it is still non-existent. So, repeating my question from under your previous video, why Ukraine keeps struggling? Why no peace negotiations from the Ukraine side? I am personally not on the side of Russia in particular, I have family on both sides and all I want is for the bloodshed to stop. Wanting for the borders to move to the pre-war state at this point is just a wisful thinking at this point anyway,
@Educated_Guesser
Жыл бұрын
Who has the shortage of "warm bodies"?
@NIL0S
Жыл бұрын
War. War never changes.
@zelands
Жыл бұрын
It is going the way it is supposed to go. Without getting into details too much - it has become a war of attrition. And Ukraine has a small upper hand at the moment, and I can only hope that it will increase. There is not much room left for clever tactics, as both sides have stabilised more or less, and now the ukrainians have to do the grim task of just grinding russians down. If there is another mobilisation, it will extend this for god only knows how long. But as long as Ukraine is supplied with tools for the war, they will prevail.
@n.bourbakki
Жыл бұрын
This is slowly turning into a math channel. Love it! :)
@jonathancrawley8916
Жыл бұрын
Great analysis but please get a better voice AI to accompany your articles.
@disturbingdevelopment4308
Жыл бұрын
I get what you're saying, Mr. Spaniel, but it still doesn't help me 'guess' where Ukraine will end up on the 'victory spectrum'. There is one factor that can't be ignored, however: Ukrainian Command is much more flexible and reactive than its Russian counterpart. As such, the Ukrainians will quickly adjust if the conventional combined arms approach doesn't work for them. That is why my money is on them (all things remaining equal).
@chris-vr5pm
Жыл бұрын
lol and the Russians won’t/haven’t been flexible? since their initial attack failed and humiliated them they’ve shown flexibility and change
@disturbingdevelopment4308
Жыл бұрын
That's why they're winning...oh.@@chris-vr5pm
@gypsydildopunks7083
Жыл бұрын
I haven't experienced the corona virus aliment. Does that mean something? Do I win. May I determine the victor. That's super kewl, mang.
@GregBrownsWorldORacing
Жыл бұрын
As someone who was good enuf in statistics to be exempt from the exams, I sure had forgotten a lot. I'm not sure I've ever seen a picture of Bayes. But his formula on the thumbnail means I guess I recognized what he wanted me to remember. Well done analysis W. Spaniel. Now let's see you apply this theorem to the 'Second Coming'... No, not of Evgeny.. that other guy.
@wilberwhateley7569
Жыл бұрын
It all boils down to this - the Kharkiv counteroffensive set a bunch of expectations for the Summer offensive in spite of the fact that the Russians had plenty of time to dig in and mine the place (something they didn’t have in Kharkiv).
@nihluxler1890
Жыл бұрын
Oh, and also the difference in Russian military presence is literally a 100 to 1 between those two.
@hutch1319
Жыл бұрын
Can we have where's the t14? Next please
@MLN-yz4ph
Жыл бұрын
Making it to Tokmak with a 50 or so mile front would be a great success and was as much as anyone should have reasonably hoped for. The longer delay in the start made that even harder. This was a great video thanks for the great work.
@asmaran9262
Жыл бұрын
We just covered Bayes Theorem in my Data Analysis for Engineers course! So happy to see a real life example at thus time
@rictechow231
Жыл бұрын
Australia's greatest general was a civil engineer before WWI :). He planned meticulously, as an engineer ought, and co-ordinated infantry, tanks and aircraft - the later used to drop ammunition to the infantry. It was one of the first uses of combined arms. John Monash was knighted on the battlefield by George V. That is kinda a big deal because it was first time for 200 years a commander had been so honored. The video is on youtube and is funny because he mucks up. He rises on the first dub and has to kneel again for the second dub. Thought you might like to know engineers can make good generals by applying engineering skills. :)
@asmaran9262
Жыл бұрын
@rictechow231 Well thats pretty cool. Working on my meticulousness and organization, but glad to know a new fun fact
@rictechow231
Жыл бұрын
Glad it was fun. To divert completely off topic try this joke about the infinitesimal. There is a mathmatician, a physicist and an engineer in a school gym. The boys and girls are lined up on opposite walls which are 30 metres apart and every 30 seconds they step forward so as to halve the distance between them. The mathmatician, the physicist and the engineer are all asked when do the boys and girls meet? What do they answer?? @@asmaran9262
@aoife1122
Жыл бұрын
Anyone who believed that sending some 50 Leopard tanks to Ukraine would make the Rooskies taking a hike better have their head examined. Ukrainians were holding out first and foremost with what they had at their disposal: mostly Soviet era equipment, namely artillery, tanks, vehicles and airframes. And despite best efforts to source some spares and ammunition for that stuff in the West it was clear they were running out of it sooner than later. Now we're witnessing the long overdue and necessary process of Ukraine being "Natofied" and this will take time. Training troops on new equipment and the West ramping up production of weapons and supplies to the levels required for an army the size of Ukraine's simply do not happen in just a few weeks. For now all Ukraine can do is to keep bleeding out the Russian hordes enough for Ukraine's Nato allies to get their act together, which they eventually will. Far too much has already been invested and pledged as to even contemplate any other outcome than the total annihilation of the aggressor's troops on Ukrainian territory.
@oletoustrup8572
Жыл бұрын
ROFL
@thomasherrin6798
Жыл бұрын
@@oletoustrup8572 Obviously you think Russia is "advancing" backwards on day 500 and odd of a three day war, comrade, you are a fool!?!
@julianbrelsford
Жыл бұрын
Laugh if you want but this is largely a war of Ukrainian personnel and EU/USA materiel/manufacturing, vs Russian personnel+ Russian (boosted by a pittance worth of North Korean and Iranian) manufacturing/materiel. Look at japan vs usa in the 1940s and you see that USA was building aircraft carriers 10 to 100 times as fast as they were losing them in combat and the same was true with other warship categories... while japan, lacking (by comparison ) in people and natural resources, couldn't replace even a fraction of lost ships with new ones. Russia has a minuscule economy compared to USA+EU and I think the chances the West will let russia just WIN get lower and lower every month. Ukraine is never going to run out of people, or willingness to risk people's lives, because the entire country has been (figuratively speaking) backed into a corner. They know Russia would like to eliminate ukraine/Ukrainians as a distinct nation and are simply not willing to go out of existence to avoid Russian aggression.
@chadhaire1711
Жыл бұрын
LOL.........bleed the Russians? UKraine started with 400,000 troops, two years later they could only get 65,000 for the fake counter offensive, and lost 45,000--now down the 15,000. Russia has 750,000 with another 250,000 on the way with 11,000 tanks. Ukraine will never be NATOized.....it was NATO and US that started this war back in 2014.....and Russia will never stop until NATO leaves.
@ChayaPaketik
Жыл бұрын
Unfortunately delays are often not because of the logistical process. Many times we have seen delays being caused by a lack of political will. Ukraine's got 300km range missiles from the EU countries and those are far more complicated to adapt than US's ATACMS, and latter have not even been approved yet.
@MattBellzminion
Жыл бұрын
Thank you for explaining Bayes's formula and how it explains the difficulty of predicting war outcomes. Could you also do one explaining the N-Square Law & Lanchester's Laws as tools for predicting attritional warfare -- esp. as this war is for now largely symmetrically* attritional, without much prospect for dramatic, Kharkhiv-counteroffensive-like territorial gains for Ukraine, pending a substantial buffering of UA's offensive capabilities in the form of F-16s, ATACMS missiles, and a large-scale deployment of Abrams tanks? * With a major asterisk re. the southern & Zaphorizhzhiya fronts, where Ukraine has been able to destroy an average of nearly a thousand RF artillery units per month for the past two months. That massive degrading of RF's capability to attack UA forces from a safe distance while the UA forces undertake the hard, slow work of dismantling RF's defenses -- mainly, the millions of land mines deployed since last year -- has already yielded dramatically improved prospects for small, incremental breakthroughs in that area. A few more weeks' worth of such progress, and Ukraine might be able to constrict RF's vulnerable land bridge between the occupied Donbas and Crimean regions upon which RF's logistics is utterly dependent.
@technokicksyourass
Жыл бұрын
Tanks won't do much, they are relegated to standoff range at this point. F-16's might help suppress the Russian helicopters, and deliver a bit more ordnance and strike options to the front lines... but Russian air defenses are 1st rate, and I doubt Ukraine will be able to do much SEAD. Based on what I have seen the best thing we could do, to be honest.. is deliver a lot more artillery shells, drones, counter-battery radars and electronic warfare capabilities. The war seems to be mostly about artillery, and hiding from drones in tree lines.
@uprebel5150
Жыл бұрын
What❓
@feedyourmind6713
Жыл бұрын
"a thousand RF artillery units per month"? Where do such fantastical numbers come from?
@feedyourmind6713
Жыл бұрын
@@technokicksyourassWho's "we"?
@ChuckAmadi
Жыл бұрын
@@technokicksyourassStorm shadows will deal with S-300/400 Systems. F-16s will have a role that I doubt will be in range of the Orcs defence systems.
@Ununpentium
Жыл бұрын
This was an amazing video. So much quality and in-depth-analysis. Thanks for sharing your great perspectives. And thanks for the continuing "line on maps"-jokes!
@AngryOlive_
Жыл бұрын
I totally agree with this assessment. What Ukraine has done so far is incredible. No one expected them to get this far, and many western assessments were wrong multiple times. At least what those agencies disclosed publicly, especially near the start.
@EhEhEhEINSTEIN
Жыл бұрын
I admit, I thought they would've made it further by now. But I was also under the impression that more meaningful donations would've materialized by now.
@hoodoo2001
Жыл бұрын
Sorry, words like "incredible" are pure hyperbole and delegitimize your statement.
@courtneybermack
Жыл бұрын
I expected them to get further, too. But I didn't appreciate the effect of dense minefields on Ukraine, especially when they lack enough demining tech and personnel. (Of course they do; whatever specific challenge they run into, they will lack enough of whatever they need to meet it. Except artillery. I hope allies keep them fed with shells.)
@AngryOlive_
Жыл бұрын
@@hoodoo2001 astonishing? Impressive? I’m sharing my opinion not writing a dissertation.
@Iv4Bez
Жыл бұрын
Nuh author don't understand the history. The Germany were able to push to the south of the USSR to oil fields (and Stalingrad) and they controlled a lot of european Russia, they were near Moscow. But anyone who knew the numbers and actual military capacity (and military production) of both sides would say that Germany would inevetibly loose (Ussr outproduced germany with tanks and planes by two times and had twice more of a people plus germany had to pay attention to the west, africa...) It doesn't matter if Ukraine take some territory. As a matter of any estimate, Ukraine has less tanks, fire several times less artillery , nonexistent air power compared to Russia (and also much less air defence, not that it's matter now with drones). So if Ukraine launch an offensive, it means the chances are for taking the Kiev become much more higher, because it means Ukraine losing too much equipment it cannot afford to loose. The only real thing that would change the calculation is the same amount of aid given prior to counter-offensive.
@normanboyes4983
Жыл бұрын
I think the best you can say is that Ukraine’s progress against the well prepared defences is rather less than was hoped by pro Ukrainians. However, real progress has been made and future success is still possible.
@jimbocho660
Жыл бұрын
Lol. The Western MSM has suddenly gone completely quiet about Ukraine supposedly breaking through Russian defensive lines.
@normanboyes4983
Жыл бұрын
@@jimbocho660 I would reserve your guffawing for a while yet to see what transpires - unless of course you are on the frontline and then just keep your head down.
@F.R.E.D.D2986
Жыл бұрын
@@jimbocho660but they already broke through the first two lines
@imhere8380
Жыл бұрын
@@jimbocho660 That is incorrect. You need to research what the truth is.
@chaosXP3RT
Жыл бұрын
@@jimbocho660Not true at all
@stevepage1467
Жыл бұрын
I believe in Ukraine and no matter how long it will take i know in the End the good always defeats the evil ....Slava Ukraine
@GeorgMierau
Жыл бұрын
From a math teacher: thank you for yet another reason to teach Bayes Theorem (at least in high school) :)
@youngminpark3173
Жыл бұрын
I'm a mathematician and would like to emphasize that William Spaniel is an especially well-informed political scientist when it comes to math. They're able to apply mathematical methods to important political questions in the most relevant and natural way (in contrast to many others outside mathematics who clumsily use methods like they're trying to hammer everything that vaguely resembles a nail). You can be sure that Dr. Spaniel's commentary is the result of very long and thoughtful research. EDIT: Note that "belief" in this video shouldn't be taken too literally.
@jonbbbb
Жыл бұрын
I have to disagree with this. I think the talk of bayes theorem was very misleading. The prior belief is not literally a belief. It's supposed to be a real statistic to be used as described. To illustrate with a covid example like in the video, if you simply believe that you don't have covid, and then you take a test that shows you do, you cannot plug your 0% prior belief into this formula and conclude that you definitely do not have covid and the test is a false positive. That is the exact opposite of how it's supposed to work. At 14:30 or so when he's talking about your beliefs going into the conflict, this flaw becomes apparent. You should be using the new data from the counter offensive to update your prior beliefs, not vice versa.
@andresv.8880
Жыл бұрын
Is Jon wrong?
@youngminpark3173
Жыл бұрын
@@jonbbbb The prior can absolutely be a belief. Normally in an example like this, the prior would be determined by prevalence, but Dr. Spaniel decides to include the probability of being sick conditioned on other factors (just for the prior mind you). So this prior is a step beyond the simplest "model" which would be prevalence. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with doing this. We see priors like this in studies like evidence collection, especially when the underlying environment changes. The prior represents a belief that a given resource is at a given place, which is of course then updated. In this case of evidence collection (among many many others), the prior is literally a belief. While I do agree the literal use of the word "belief" could be misleading, the underlying concept is sound. If you want to talk about math, you better be prepared to address concepts in the face of differing semantics. Which leads me to my next point. Note that Dr. Spaniel doesn't talk about updating priors because the goal of this discussion differs from how Bayes' rule is normally used. This video is about how given priors affect probabilities. You could say it's an incomplete description of how Bayes' rule is used, but there's nothing conceptually wrong here. EDIT: One more note. How math "should" be used is up to the person who understands the mathematics. For example, you "should" simplify terms and cancel things like (-a+a) to zero, right? Except I've had key ideas in my research where I had to literally add by zero by undoing that kind of canceling, i.e., do the opposite of what "should" be done. I also very often came across this kind of confusion when learning proofs, where things I believed "should" be done weren't done for the sake of making progress elsewhere. So in this video, Dr. Spaniel doesn't do what "should" be done for the sake of describing an incredibly important concept behind Bayes' rule (priors) and providing concrete examples thereof. Believe me, if there was anything conceptually/mathematically unsound in Dr. Spaniel's understanding, I would have picked up on it months and months ago.
@lauradavis8933
Жыл бұрын
@@jonbbbb Since he used a medical example, I will introduce/re-introduce a concept taught in the medical sphere. He spoke of pre-existing belief. The term in medicine is pre-test probability. Then, you do the test. Based on operating characteristics of the test, there is a post test probability. At least if you know the operating characteristics of the test. Those include: false positive rate, false negative rate, positive predictive value, negative predictive value. From those, likelihood ratios can be calculated which more directly help convert a pre-test probability to a post test probability. Many people think medicine is black and white. We are doctors so we have "the answer". I imagine military concepts have just as much grey area, but also have some component of theory that is developed based on probabilities based on prior study.
@regentvoo
Жыл бұрын
@andresv.8880 yes and no. 1. Probability is not a certainty. My lecturer used to say : Here's the weird thing about maths. A probability if 100% doesn't mean it will happen and zero doesn't mean it won't happen ever. Cause well probability is the extend something is estimated to happen (i.e the belief). (He's talking bout some cases of course. Probability we're all gonna die is defo 100% and will become a fact) 2. The problem with probability is many times data is incomplete. And we use the nearest estimate. Maths theres another whole concept on certainty and deviations but I digress. William did explain we not sure if he's a time traveller or spent alot time with other ppl etc. Alot of factors and data need to be considered. And to complicate things even more, it's possible you can be in a room full of covid patients and you dont even have the vaccine, but you dont get covid. That's possible! So in the end, as William emphasise alot of times, the fog of war makes interpretation of what's really happening, whats gonna happen even what HAS happened hard to do
@sa.t.2507
Жыл бұрын
Former tanker here. I think there is a misunderstanding of the difficulty of what the Ukranians are attempting. The attention on the Russian defenses has tended to focus on the obvious - trenches lightly manned by minimally trained, unmotivated soldiers and lightweight dragon’s teeth. Neither one is a serious impediment to the Ukranian armor. What is a serious impediment are most probably tens of millions of anti-tank mines in belts kilometers deep, covered by artillery. That takes a lot of training and combat engineer support to breech. You need enough resources to push multiple lanes that can support each other and have enough resources and leadership to keep pushing when you lose vehicles and men. I never trained for this as a tanker in Germany during the First Gulf War timeframe. We did go to Iraq (1st Armored Division). By the time my battalion crossed the border after the ground war started the sand berm and shallow minefields had been breeched and multiple lanes marked. Then our only real limitation in terms of speed of advance was our own logistics and one or two brief stands by Iraqi armor which were annihilated. We had air supremacy and every technical and tactical advantage. The Ukranians do not have that. Once they punch through the minefields I have no doubt they will rout the Russians. But breaking through will be difficult and I hope they have the trained manpower and enough specialized equipment. One thing I have not seen much of in videos during the war is use of smoke. You can get it through artillery smoke shells, smoke pots, vehicle smoke by spraying diesel on the exhaust manifold, or defensive smoke grenade salvoes fired from the smoke grenade launchers on the turrets of tanks and IFVs. I suspect most western armies stopped stockpiling smoke pots and maybe even smoke artillery shells to a large extent to save money. Those types of munitions would really help the Ukranians now.
@festekj
Жыл бұрын
You can t cross a minefield without air superiority. De-miners need air cover - without it, these de-miners are toast.
@emilsinclair4190
Жыл бұрын
@festekj no you don't. You need cover. But not air superiority.
@emilsinclair4190
Жыл бұрын
Currently a lot of focus is on the minefields. However the other things (like the trenches) might be an even bigger problem. They slow you down long enough to get destroyed.
@casbot71
Жыл бұрын
Can modern infra-red systems see through smoke screens? The smoke can't be hot if uncovered troops are operating within it.
@emilsinclair4190
Жыл бұрын
@@casbot71 depends on the smoke used and its density. There is smoke that can blick ot.
@somefella7611
Жыл бұрын
Great video, bringing me info I was unfamiliar with. Thank you. Slava Ukraini!
@mrwri
Жыл бұрын
When most units have withdrawn entirely it doesn't seem hard to interpret at all. It failed. That's war.
@LewisPulsipher
Жыл бұрын
Given that this is the Age of Instant Gratification, casual observers will naturally criticize anything that doesn't happen fast. Thanks for the discourse on Bayes and expectations.
@Rednecknerd_rob9634
Жыл бұрын
Sad honestly. Especially with regards to say war.
@SebastianSonntag
Жыл бұрын
7:54 shouldn't that date be 1/2022 rather than 01/2023?
@Gametheory101
Жыл бұрын
Whoops, thank you!
@hansonlee5847
Жыл бұрын
BOOOOOOOO! I was hoping to see more lines on maps and not this icky math (already have to do statistical analysis for my research). Jokes aside, love your videos as always!
@farkon00
Жыл бұрын
2:30 hell yes, now we have lines on tests
@LukeAps
Жыл бұрын
This was needlessly overcomplicated. TLDR: Everyone had different expectations for the speed of the Ukrainian Offensive in reaching it's war goals. Ukraine chipping away at the heavily fortified Soroviken Line doesn't look like awesome crushing victory. So there are people that think slow means failure and more future failure, and some that think that despite being slow the gains are victory and mean more future victory. We can only know what is currently happening, and so pessimism or optimism mixed with limited information and understanding of war, means some of us can't agree. Seriously William needs to get better at his explanation game.
@BoliceOccifer
Жыл бұрын
He was trapped between two demographics. The "this needs to be justified with math" demographic, and the "i have a one minute attention span" demographic.
@gawkthimm6030
Жыл бұрын
@@BoliceOccifer people using math to explain soldiers moral and willingness to keep on fighting is impossible to calculate, its been proven many times over in this and other wars that what matters most, is the willingness of one side to endure losses and keep on fighting, combined with their economic ability to sustain the logistics needed for the war...
@sylviamaresca8852
Жыл бұрын
I totally agree with you. I skipped the entire piece.
@jolteon1019
Жыл бұрын
There are a billion worth of new aid packages on the way. Yes, orcs have held on for very long, but that will not last. With everything considered, I see the breakthroughs becoming more and more consistent while orcs can only destroy and run. Time is on Ukraine's side.
@lauradavis8933
Жыл бұрын
In medicine, we are trained to develop “pre-test” probabilities. There are actual graphs you can use to transition from pre to pst test probability using likelihood ratios. However, in actual medical practice, no one really remembers this. At least, not how physicians talk to each other in the fast paced world of actual patient care. Well, in the US places where I have practiced.
@roninpojedinec5968
Жыл бұрын
My class covered bayes law yesterday so now I get to tell myself that I am “studying”
@anoldlady8
Жыл бұрын
You're talking about these math probabilities then mention we're only now going off the deep end. My guy you lost me 2 minutes prior to getting to the deep end lol
@Jo-re2ye
Жыл бұрын
Count yourself lucky then
@aaronleverton4221
Жыл бұрын
I made a deal with maths a long time ago: if it stayed in it's lane, I'd stay in language's lane and we'd both get on fine.
@nuggs4snuggs516
Жыл бұрын
It's important to remember that the offensive in Kherson spent months battering away at Russian defenses before making rapid gains. Offensive action takes time, and it's easy to forget this when our frame of reference for large scale ground wars tends to come from media rather than actual experience
@zeppkfw
Жыл бұрын
They kinda just dried out their supplies by hitting their constricted supply lines from the back. It was a classic textbook war strategy. Unfortunately Ukraine is pressed to have a victory rn and it seems that they're trying to take bigger risks recently. Tbf that's western powers being wussies as usual.
@kitchenersown
Жыл бұрын
In Kherson the Ukrainian didn't break through anything...the russian just left...in Kharkov the russian only had one reinforced brigade in it while the Ukrainian had several times more men than the russian did...
@thunderspark1536
Жыл бұрын
@@kitchenersown Don't know what of copium you're smoking, but you're just wrong. Russia left Kherson CITY, the land on the Ukraine side beyond it was heavily defended and it took them a while to break it and lay siege to the city. Kharkiv had Russia's best tank fleet, which was destroyed as Ukraine went in. Don't discount the millions that have died as "one reinforced brigade"
@kitchenersown
Жыл бұрын
@@thunderspark1536 The Russian literally left when the Russian withdrew the Ukrainians weren't even at the outskirt of the city. It was a withdrawal, there was no battle for the city of Kherson. The Russian just left without fighting any battle. During the Kharkov Offensive, the Russian Unit Present 1st GTA only had 18,000 men assigned to Kharkov Oblast. The Ukrainian had several times more men than the Russian. The Russian, again, just withdrew. They didn't have the manpower to actually fight the Ukrainians on such a large front and them being a mechanized unit could just drive away. Did the Russian take losses? For sure, but not destroyed, not even close. If 1st GTA was actually destroyed the entirety of 1st GTA would've been withdrawn from Ukraine and it wasn't...
@thunderspark1536
Жыл бұрын
@@kitchenersown Did you just...ignore, or forget, all the fighting done for MONTHS prior to the retreat from the city? Ukraine was pushing them back for a while and only after the bridges being cut and their supplies running low did they decide to leave. Said bridges would NOT have been in range if Ukraine did not push forward. Do you see the connection? Ukraine pushes Russia back -> Russia positioning become unsustainable -> Russia retreats. The "battle" for the city, as you call it, had already been lost, that's why Russia fell back. Also, would you like me to pull up the equipment loss estimates for the first guards tank army, which sits at a cool 308 captured? That sounds more like a destroyed than a "bravely ran away". Or perhaps the pristine, clean, T90 that was captured in Izyum and then sent to the US? Did Russia just leave that as a goodbye gift to Ukraine?
@vepraksoldat2963
Жыл бұрын
Counter offensive failed miserably
@ReptilianAnusWizzard
11 ай бұрын
🥇 in Mental Gymnastiks 😂😂😂
@awesomehpt8938
Жыл бұрын
It’s not going aswell as we hoped but it’s doing better than Russias winter offensive ever did. However Ukraines offensive isn’t over.
@nihluxler1890
Жыл бұрын
You mean the winter offensive that western commentator thought would happen but never actually did ?
@DonLuc23
Жыл бұрын
I hate history. It was the most boring, irritating classes. However, it's possible that if I had teachers that teach with such media as you present and your presentation, I might have a different about history. I like hearing about it, just don't want to take a test! Thank you for your presentations.
@fastmadcow
Жыл бұрын
Always thought that was weird that History requires a test like math or English. History is something that we observe and learn from. Taking a test to know dates and times and people doesn't get the point across. These types of videos do an excellent job of teaching and showing with out the irritation afterwards of needing to know names or dates or times or w/e. Just heres the point and this is why it's relevant to you.
@jeffbenton6183
Жыл бұрын
@@fastmadcow History is also less certain than the typical non-historian realizes. Tests that focus on rote memorization do a poor job of communicating that to the student. The study of current events is actually quite like the study of history. Presenting information in that way, "some evidence supports x, but other evidence supports y" could make classes more interesting, too, as the students might start thinking of themselves being like detectives.
@michaelramsey3643
Жыл бұрын
Good analysis. I think another factor a lot of folks aren't grasping is that RU has deviated from Surovikin's plan by pushing more troops toward the first defensive lines. That has slowed Ukraine's early progress, but could lead to larger gains in the fall. The other very positive factor for UA will be the addition of a whole bunch of precision long-range munitions, both ground-launched ATACMS and other air-launched systems that should accompany the F16s. Once UA has all those long-range munitions, they won't need close proximity in order to shut off the land and sea bridges to Crimea and the western regions, and can also make Sebastopol very unpleasant for the RU navy. Ukraine's MoD has been multiple steps ahead of the RU MoD from the start.
@TheSubpremeState
Жыл бұрын
All those supply lines are coming closer to artillery range everyday.
@KjcKiesh
Жыл бұрын
I think with the speed of the modern world, people forget that some things just do take time. Wars can last for many years, Ukraine has been in conflict with Russia technically since 2014 when they invaded Crimea. With sufficient and continued support from the West, I think Ukraine can make more substantial progress over time. I think without complete reorganisation of how it fights and operates, a war of attrition is not one Russia will be able to sustain. They needed to win quick last year but they failed.
@Ramschat
Жыл бұрын
If they don't take Tokmak, we may expect Russia to dig new defensive lines and lay new minefields behing the current frontline during the mud and winter seasons... Perhaps another wave of conscriptions. The window of opportunity is getting narrow, unfortunately.
@blahblah-qx4uk
Жыл бұрын
This explains why Western media are saying the offensive has failed while russian mil bloggers are saying Russia has failed. The mil bloggers expected an outcome to the left of stalemate so from their perspective ukraine is successful and Russia is unsuccessfully.
@imhere8380
Жыл бұрын
Your answer has proven, you have not sourced your information well.
@BigSober
Жыл бұрын
Tried to sound smart ended up sounding really stupid
@Oldman5261
Жыл бұрын
Very nice video. Laying out all the facts, possible outcomes, and mathematical predictions is hard to refute. My hats off to the producers. Your professionalism and thoroughness shows.
@daikucoffee5316
Жыл бұрын
Finally some math.
@Maverekt
Жыл бұрын
Something that can’t be argued
@rictechow231
Жыл бұрын
Thank you for the probability discussion which does put some rationality around the counter-offensive. It was always highly unlikely that Ukraine would never gain an advance of a meter along some of the front line. It was always also highly unlikely that Ukraine would stunningly used combined arms tactics to sweep Russia out of Ukraine when it didn't have the material to successfully use combined arms. And for whatever reasons there has been reluctance. Europeans might fear that Russia, having bitten off Ukraine, will march to Paris in small bites or it might consider Russia will be content forever if it has Ukraine. The US might see Russia and China uniting to overturn the post WW2 order (which does appear to be their game plan) as a sufficient threat to devote treasure or it might see it better to spend the money on Americans given it has the safety of two oceans around it. If the first part of each of those sentences is true and Europe/US act accordingly then there is a low probability of Russia winning and not being significantly degraded militarily. If the second part of those two sentences are true then Russia will not lose and might be able to militarily recover. I don't think I am saying anything radical in that the probability of Ukraine punching thru has been more to do with how the collective west (including the East Asia west) has chosen to arm Ukraine and it's timeliness.
@thomasherrin6798
Жыл бұрын
Europe is not threatened by the Russian Army marching through Europe, it would be destroyed in Poland in short order, Russia's Army has been exposed. The Chinese play the Russian card but it does not have much significance, it is more likely that China might view Russia as a target rather than the West, it can secure precious resources if it was willing to pay the price, whereas taking over Tawain is only ideological, there is not much gain for the pain!?!
@rictechow231
Жыл бұрын
That is kinda the whole point Thomas. What point is a point too far? You might draw the line at Poland. Others - e.g. myself - others might draw the line at initiating a war in Europe 78 years on from Hitler. Ukraine is not an existential threat to Russia but it is an existential threat to Russia as a GREAT POWER. China - in my judgement - wants to be a great power. There is a subtle distinction in an existential threat to a countries existence/well being and an existential threat to a countries great power status. Already Russia has exceeded a reasonable economic cost by achieving parity with the US cent for the Ruble. I suggest that for some countries & some leaders, Great Power status is priceless. It is not, in fact, economic decision making as you suggest for China. @@thomasherrin6798
@CMDRunematti
Жыл бұрын
I do hope they take everything back, to pre2014 state
@wooddavid8293
Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the refresher on Bayes' Theorem. Applying it to the war in Ukraine is a new way of looking at things for me. It took me forever to really get the "Let's Make a Deal" example usually used to explain it. But that's what happens with a Statistics 101 level of understanding.
@faisal-ca
Жыл бұрын
I don't know if Democrats vs. Republican poll numbers will factor into the counteroffensive? They will become more official once primaries start in early 2024. If Trump starts leading polls, Ukraine may have to fight Russia and the clock simultaneously. If Russia holds the ground and a pro-Russian Republican wins, it could mean trouble for Ukraine.
@dylandarnell3657
Жыл бұрын
I think one of the most effective anti-misinformation policies we could conceivably enact would be if everyone on social media was required to take a short test on their practical understanding of Bayes' Theorem before being allowed to engage in any capacity, and for their scores on that test to be clearly displayed on all their subsequent content.
@dannydetonator
Жыл бұрын
Great in theory, hard or misleading in practice. Simple short test won't do, large time-consuming IQ test (i'd guess better option, if unpredictable) would be too cumbersome and people would leave platforms mandating that. Besides, online tests can be forged and i bet whatever you throw at them (including english test) - trollarms would immediately have teams of academics passing them for all fake profiles with flying colors. Only thing i can think of to stop social media shaping artificial and misleading public opinion (akin neo-fascists pushing their agenda with Alex Jones , Tucker Carlson and other scum) is de-anonimizing social media accounts and blocking VPN's to give a rough estimate of where geographically these opinions and distributed information comes from. And that, unfortunately, would not be viable for most private social networks. But, something should be done, you're right.
@unoriginalname4321
Жыл бұрын
That sounds like something "Big Bayesian" would say.
@qaudit1612
Жыл бұрын
after 15 second , let me tell you how it goes : for an army 🇺🇦( 23th of the world ) that was supposed to hold 3 weeks and the Capital Kiev 3 days , against the suprise full scale invasion of russia army ( 2th of the world ) from 3 side , it goes great !!! They hold them , push them back of 50 tousand square kilometers since march 2022 , they hold their 🇷🇺 winter offensive , only giving russian less than 800 km2 from december to may , and now they 🇺🇦 start pushing russia back again faster than russian winter offensive , we ( free world ) have today around 108 500 km2 of Ukraine territory to liberated , there is no way russian will hold Ukraine forces back now , GFP in 2023 rates Ukraine army 15th of the world , i say there right now around 10 th and russia 11th ! Russia is 2th position in Ukraine , not in the world 😉
@RicardoStJohn
Жыл бұрын
I read that there are many poro russians respect to ucrainian advances in their own country. The Ukrainian army and government do what they think best for their life and victory, so far they know what they are doing. Slava Ukraini!!!
@MeNanWazaHowitzer
Жыл бұрын
As a manchester united fan i am grateful you used my team in that example but truth be told its been tough times since sir alex retired as manager
@kitchenersown
Жыл бұрын
What?? Status quo would be a major russian victory in this counter offensive as its a UKRAINIAN counter offensive. Why is kiev even on the chart? Honestly insane cope.
@InsaneNerdGeek
Жыл бұрын
From NZ, the world class sports team i wish to respectfully put forward, The All Blacks. New Zealand's National Rugby team and one of the best in the world :D
@DuelScreen
Жыл бұрын
It's going well. It's just a slog that will take time.
@SnabbKassa
Жыл бұрын
The Iraq War only took 3 weeks, but European news channels were impatient and pessimistic after only 4 days.
@michaelwaldmeier1601
Жыл бұрын
It took the Allies in the West until January, 1945 to get to the German Border. Movement went quickly after that.
@chris-vr5pm
Жыл бұрын
@@michaelwaldmeier1601completely different scenario, does Ukraine have the manpower and military equipment the Allie’s had against the Germans? No
@mokarokas-1727
Жыл бұрын
@13ased_American - Cope harder, Ivan.
@ReichLife
6 ай бұрын
@@mokarokas-1727 How counteroffensive going Bandera?
@henryheavisides
Жыл бұрын
Your excellent analysis is somewhat spoiled by using Manchester United as an example of a sports team that expects to win everything. They've won hardly anything for the last 10 years. Did you mean Manchester City?
@handsomegeorgianbankrobber3779
Жыл бұрын
You could have simply made a 60 second long short-style video saying that Ukraine´s counter-offensive has thus far been pretty underwhelming und not been able to meet expectations. Anything else is simply painting a false picture of reality. Theres no point in making a 4-hour long essay listing all 356 possible ways on how to interpret the current situation on the battlefield, by now we have figured out that this war has turned into a stalemate.
@IAmNumber4000
Жыл бұрын
A lot of credible news sites have been reporting that Ukraine has decisively broken through the first line of defense near Zaporizhzhia. And also that the Russian military devoted 70-80% of its manpower to defending the first line, leaving the second line relatively weak. Once they break through that second line, they will have succeeded.
@F.R.E.D.D2986
Жыл бұрын
They have already broken through the second line, and are currently being counter attacked by Russian forces
@TheAngelobarker
Жыл бұрын
@@F.R.E.D.D2986 the Russian counter already failed a day or two ago
@Gerrard_Pike2008
Жыл бұрын
@@F.R.E.D.D2986they already broken the 5th line and are now in the outskirt of Mariupol
@nihluxler1890
Жыл бұрын
Too bad literally everything single part of that comment is bullsh!t…
@ReichLife
6 ай бұрын
Half a year later, Russians merely regained bulk of first line.
@arturobianco848
Жыл бұрын
Excellent video For myself i was a little to positive at the beginning but that was more because i underestimated Russia willingness to agressivly defend forwards. "Succes" for me now is reaching not capturing Tokmak. Acceptable is engaging the second S Line near Tokmak. Failure is a stalemate from where they are now. But ofcourse those are general and mostly stupid conditions. Lets say ukraine does better and even takes Tokmak or even have real breakthrough but at a way to high a cost that the can't hold it that would be failure. And not gaining anything more but for russia to have overcommited and thus in the next year being mopped up would be a succes. Instead of looking at movement we should look at relative losses combined with movement. Since a war is not about one battle or one seizone that famous ancient king comes to mind Phyrus who won most of its battles but still lost the war.
@ajr993
Жыл бұрын
the problem with Bayesian logic is that it allows you to rationalize and justify your pre existing conclusions. Its all based on whatever priors you want and a Z patriot will have entirely different priors than I will, and therefore will come to very different conclusions.
@oohhboy-funhouse
Жыл бұрын
The TLDR is no one can agree on the victory conditions.
@vilian9185
Жыл бұрын
so the title?
@john38825
Жыл бұрын
Tldr War
@MrJdsenior
Жыл бұрын
The only people that have to agree is the Ukrainians, nobody else has any say in the matter, and they have made their stance VERY clear, and it has not wavered. All Ukrainian lands back in their control, some guarantee of support in the future for another such conflict (The Budapest Memorandum was that this go round, more or less). and the current requirement bringing war criminals to trial (which probably will not happen, for the most part, and they know that). I think reparations might also be a part of it. NONE of that is unreasonable. You or I, or any other govt or individual, other than the Ukrainians, do not matter, not one tiny bit. Why some people think otherwise is beyond me. It is arrogant, disrespectful, and frankly, dumb.
@oohhboy-funhouse
Жыл бұрын
@@vilian9185 No, William is answering why it happens, the traps in setting those priors and how it is possible to calculate, with enough data and correct priors. The problem is there isn't enough data to have informed priors, unlike sports which have a untold number of games to draw from.
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