Note: 1) As per the Master Plan Part 3 document just released, the shorter range versions of the Semi can use LFP, but the Semi will still predominantly use Nickel based battery cells in a 2:1 ratio. 2) Yes, the masterplan said 53kwh for compact vehicles rather than 40 kWh, but that's neither here nor there for the points made in the video. The supply needed seems to be off by at least 2-3x or more rather than 33%.
@karenrobertsdottir4101
Жыл бұрын
I have trouble taking this video's basic premise (Na-ion is cheaper) at face value. Lithium is just too small of a share of the cost of li-ion cells (except during temporary shortage-induced price spikes, but that can happen with any battery material). Non-spike pricing of lithium hydroxide amounts to maybe $7/kWh, give or take. From there, you have to account for the fact that the lower the energy density, the more the mass of "everything else" you have to pay for (particularly in the case of lower voltage) - and the greater the capital investment in the manufacturing of that greater mass. Na-ion is supposed to save on copper in the current collectors by being alumium-compatible in the anode, but there's other ways to save on copper, such as copper-coated polymer foils - these have higher internal cell resistance, but with continuously-tabbed ("tabless") designs, internal resistance is no longer a meaningful limit. And chemically, it's just unappealing. It consumes electrolyte faster, and by virtue of its higher ionic radius it's more "intrusive" in the intercalation process. I just can't take the premise at face value the way you do. And I think the quashing of the rumours about the imminent deployment of Na-ion in EVs shows that the manufacturers also aren't as sold on it.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
@@karenrobertsdottir4101 That's not the basic premise. That's you misreading what I said to hop on a hobby horse. The points you're making are suited to a separate video called "the economics of sodium ion vs lithium ion." Good points, but wrong forum.
@mikereinhardt1244
Жыл бұрын
@@karenrobertsdottir4101 I think this is based on CATL's marketing material. They have proposed that the cost of sodium ion could get close to the cost of lead acid batteries, which would be dirt cheap. LFP are sitting around $80-100 per kWh, we don't know what Na-Ion will cost, but estimates are closer to $50-65 per kWh. Again, until they are for sale no one knows and you may be right, but I think this article is assuming that the marketing materials are correct and they are cheaper.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
@@mikereinhardt1244 Marketing material aside, the cost of sodium Ion will be cheaper. All the costing models I've seen show this. Sodium ion has first principles cost advantages despite it's lower energy density, etc. However! Where it gets interesting is the fact the LFP is often more expensive than it should be simply due to supply and demand. I expect the same thing may happen with sodium ion intermittently until the battery market is saturated next decade. That is, one aspect is materials cost, another production cost, another is scale, another is timing, another is the competing chemistries on the market and how those will evolve, and another is the price the market is willing to pay based on the value they get from the cells.
@mikereinhardt1244
Жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor This would be a very interesting video for you to do. You have hinted and even outright stated that different chemistries and form factors are good for different purposes. Tesla has stated this clearly years ago, but I think many of the boardrooms across America (especially in the grid sector) don't seem to have received that message. The battery market is large enough to support multiple battery types at scale, and it will be so large by 2030 that it will probably require that, yet chemistries (and form factors) that are better suited to mobility are still being widely used in grid and home storage. Aviation is trying to use chemistries with enough density for cars, when there are more dense options available that are not as durable, but given the high maintenance costs in aviation that still may be a better option (i.e. lithium sulfur with 500 cycles may work just fine). I would love someone with your expertise and thoroughness to do a video on that topic by itself: why chemistries and form factors are being used when there are those better suited and what it will take for that to change.
@dr-k1667
Жыл бұрын
Another great dive into the ever evolving and fast paced battery world that is our collective future. I always learn something when I watch and am looking forward to seeing how well things play out with better understand and some foresight. Thanks Jordan!!
@rogerstarkey5390
Жыл бұрын
Can't say I agree (completely) . I think the main issue may be the 'Honda E paradox' . You need a "small, light, cheap car". You need a "cheap cell" . But the available cheap cell simply won't fit within the wheelbase of the small, light, cheap, car due to volumetric/ gravimetric density. Also, if the cell (pack)is relatively heavy, that compromises a *small* vehicle more than a large one, since the pack constitutes a greater percentage of total vehicle weight......? . (The Honda, great looking car, compromised range?) . This leads me to a possible way out, but a conflict I've mentioned when discussing the "Investor day" presentation. . A *possible* solution would be to make an extremely space efficient small vehicle, with long wheelbase: vehicle length ratio. Essentially "a wheel at each each corner" . That would allow a relatively low density pack. Problem (?) That's *not* the vehicle that most identified as the "compact" in the presentation. . However. IF (as I've suggested) the "Compact" is "compact" in terms of relative length, (a box on wheels) AND is multi purpose, *That* would accommodate either a cheap, higher physical volume pack, or a (new?) mid density, mid volume pack to satisfy the requirements. (A "box" would also likely be more efficient in terms of material use and so be lighter) . My (I think logical) bet is the "Compact" being the "box" in the presentation. Wheel at each corner. Either (eventually) Sodium, "straight" LFP, or a "Modified LFP" including Manganese. Multi purpose body to reduce cost. . (I'll say again, the "Q/2/compact" under the sheet is too low, wide, space inefficient for the purpose suggested...... Time will tell) . BTW The other application for a sodium cell? A bus. Low "performance". Known range requirement. Plenty of available space. .
@karenrobertsdottir4101
Жыл бұрын
I agree with you (I also noted my objections to the very premise of Na-ion being some fundamentally cheaper chemistry above). Part of the problem is that you just *can't* assume that small EVs are more efficient. *Low speed* EVs, sure, but small does not inherently mean more efficient in the EV world. With ICEs, you'd put a smaller engine in a smaller car (since engine size is about torque, and smaller ICE cars are lighter), and said smaller engines burn less fuel. But in the EV world, torque needs have no relationship to efficiency. A smaller car means less rolling drag and accel/devel losses, but it also means that you have less length over which to taper the vehicle, so it can conversely increase aero drag. And aero drag dominates at higher speeds.
@rogerstarkey5390
Жыл бұрын
@@karenrobertsdottir4101 I think the term "Horses for courses" may apply. As in "Design the vehicle for its specific use case"? . I would suggest (as I have before) that the "box vehicle" would be ideal for.... 1) A predominantly low speed taxi. 2) A "City Van", which will sell very well around every city which has an expanding "Ultra low emission zone" (essentially, soon, every city) and requires service industries to access the area. . 3) A "compact" ("short" rather than "small") vehicle, essentially a privately owned version of the "Taxi". . Just these three, sold globally, would take a huge market percentage. They wouldn't need an especially high speed, careful design could offset the aerodynamic inefficiency, but they could also be made lighter to compensate. Most of their life would be in a lower speed range. . As for what I consider to be the "mislabelled" car. I still think that could be the roadster, built bespoke, in low numbers to test the system. . Tesla website/Other/ Roadster/ scroll to the 5th picture, "Glass roof". That's the car under the sheet.
@justinw1765
Жыл бұрын
@@karenrobertsdottir4101 Aptera.
@karenrobertsdottir4101
Жыл бұрын
@@rogerstarkey5390 "careful design could offset the aerodynamic inefficiency" - it cannot. Whatever "tricks" you can pull on a smaller vehicle, you can pull even better on a larger one. Smaller vehicles are at a fundamental taper disadvantage. You can't magick that away. "They wouldn't need an especially high speed" - MIght as well tell people not to buy a car then, if you're going to go so far as to tell them not to drive at the speed they want to drive at. The car doesn't define the user's desired speed. The user defines their desired speed. The car needs to meet that.
@rogerstarkey5390
Жыл бұрын
@@justinw1765 Niche
@TheHellishFrog
Жыл бұрын
I don't know about the cars but in boats safe, non-flammable sodium-ion batteries look very promising, volume is not a problem in boats, while fire safety is of top concern.
@TheEvilmooseofdoom
Жыл бұрын
Mass becomes an issue in boats. The heavier the boat the more power it takes to move it and keep it moving, water is a high drag medium.
@Nphen
Жыл бұрын
@@TheEvilmooseofdoom The electric boat equation is so vexing. I live in Michigan so I want to see electric ferries to Mackinac Island, electric tour boats at the Soo Locks, and electric jetskis & speedboats on both inland & Great Lakes. But it seems the only sane option is to create electric hydrofoils. They're an amazing concept, less wake, more speed, more efficiency, but I feel like they're a bit of a culture shock. And of course only one or 2 companies working on them, mostly for Europe, or other ocean coasts. Clean water groups should be talking about e-boating.
@richardalexander5758
Жыл бұрын
Thank you Gordan. Nice to get some un-hyped well thought out long term battery information. LFP makes total sense for the start of Tesla's new line. I'd be surprised if there wasn't something else we don't know about yet coming along in the future that changes the battery game in a big way. So many of the best brains working full time looking for an energy dense, lightweight, cheap chemistry with high cycle life as well as the potential for scale production. Might take some time, but there's so much incentive I'm optimistic.
@TheEvilmooseofdoom
Жыл бұрын
Lots of battery R&D going on, it's making it to mass production that tends to be the part that kills some.
@georgepelton5645
Жыл бұрын
Very intersting video, packed with good info. Thanks Jordan! 😀 One minor note: If I am not mistaken, 138 mile range is 25% less range than 184 miles, not “33% less range.” I think you calculated correctly that 184 miles is 33% *more* range than 130 miles, then labeled it incorrectly.
@ccibinel
Жыл бұрын
Sodium Ion could be amazing for the Aptera since they designed the vehicle to accomidate the massive 160-200 liters of cells capacity for the 1000 mile variant. This means losing volumetric density is manageable and could result in a 400 mile range with sodium cells. the inherent efficiency of the base design means they can achieve a long range while using bottom of the barrel batteries for an EV.
@josephvanorden3782
Жыл бұрын
Professional and well done! Thanks for really breaking down the issues with Sodium Ion Batteries! With all the mega packs - Tesla can use up all the Sodium Ion batteries in stationary storage. Not much of a reason to ever use the batteries in cars.
@soundworks52
Жыл бұрын
That BYD Seagull has 250cm wheelbase. They have loads of space for space inefficient batteries. In no time they'll be getting 40 to 45 KWh sodium batteries in that platform. volumetric energy density isn't a LIMITING FACTOR. Also, the battery enclosure doesn't have to be thermal runaway resistant because the batteries don't burn like Lion batteries. Also the sodium batteries don't need to be protected in cold weather. My car protects an additional 10% of battery below 10 degrees and it is below 10 degrees for a large part of the year here. The battery also charges quickly. My battery takes the first 100% of storage to get a few degrees of heat in to it and in really weather it doesn't reach its sweet spot.
@wolfgangpreier9160
Жыл бұрын
Yes, the limit in regular cars will be around 40-45kWh. Larger cars would take a much larger weight disadvantage. And trucks or lorries could only use up to 200kWh before those packs become too heavy. But they are 1/3rd cheaper than cheap LFP cells. And they are not temperature dependent. AND they could much faster. Maybe BYD delivers a cheap car to Europe sometimes in this decade? The AttoIII they are currently exporting costs the same as a Model Y. Thats hardly „cheap“. The Tang and Han cost the same as the Koreans. About 10K-22K Euros more than Teslas.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
There's a whole lot of faulty assumptions here. For example: Anything that stores large amounts of energy needs protection. Those LFP and solid state batteries that were supposed to be 'safe'?... exploding and bursting into flames.
@soundworks52
Жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor huge difference between sodium and lithium. Sandy Munro thought he could brainstorm a new battery enclosure for the Id.4 without having the first clue what the engineers in VAG were designing the enclosure to do. It is not that sodium is inherently safe it is that lithium would prefer to self immolate than to remain on this mortal plane. Headline figures for range in wltp or nedc or whatever are meaningless when I lose 20% most of the year before I press the start button and then I am lucky not to lose near 20% more because battery is not at sweet spot for temp and struggles to get to sweet spot by time I am ready for next charge at a fast charger so charging is throttled at a fraction of claimed charge rate i.e. around or below1C instead of over 2C. I was observing my car via Obd port last weekend and longing for Lfe or sodium batteries. I've had much time to contemplate how sucky these batteries are over the last two winters at "fast" chargers.
@incognitotorpedo42
Жыл бұрын
@@soundworks52 What chemistry are you running now? I have a problem with low temperature performance in NCA for a large part of the year, but my understanding was that LFP was even WORSE for low temp performance. I would really like a battery that would maintain good performance down to at least 0C/32F.
@soundworks52
Жыл бұрын
@@incognitotorpedo42 NCM 50KWH 2P108S CATL prismatic battery cells according to Internet. 6 months of good performance, 6 months of poor performance per year.
@joestafford6529
Жыл бұрын
Jon great video! I think you delivered as always well researched information.
@rogerstarkey5390
Жыл бұрын
Wrong channel. It's "Jordan" (Jon is Cleanerwatt)
@joestafford6529
Жыл бұрын
Right, sorry!
@joestafford6529
Жыл бұрын
Jordan, sorry I messed up on your name! I am a bug fan of your work.
@joestafford6529
Жыл бұрын
Jordan, sorry I do know your name. Chalk up to a senior moment. I am a big fan.
@todd1771
Жыл бұрын
Great detailed overview. The transportation and installation costs of MegaPacks might be significant and the heavier or more numerous the Packs, the costs go up. It will be tough to unseat LFP as the go-to chemistry.
@fredfrond6148
Жыл бұрын
Good job providing the overview of the landscape then explaining the technical details.
@ranig2848
Жыл бұрын
Great video. However, due to the nature of S curve both in BEV and grid, if sodium-ion is shown to be viable (ie doesn’t have any significant disadvantages to LFP apart from volume), it will scale VERY rapidly, more rapidly than most of us (including you) expect. Materials are easier to source and demand for any battery will be HUGE which tends to speed things up (esp when Chinese are involved). Furthermore, some players who are late to LFP (or blocked due to patents) might make the leap to sodium and skip LFP. Tesla has shown us they’re aware that price is likely the most critical aspects of demand, so if Tesla can source (maybe produce internally?) sodium batteries, we’d likely see them sooner than later in the M3SR and possible MYSR - especially if they can be produced in the US and allow Tesla to get the benefit of both the battery/pack production and the full $7500 tax credit. Tesla has shown to push things very quickly when it sees opportunities and going to sodium, which might be easier to source materials for in the west, might make the switch happen more quickly. All guesswork, of course, but worth considering
@BatterVswithAntonio
Жыл бұрын
I'm also watching Na-ion very closely. Grid storage is perfect for it. IF they can overcome the many "ifs", then it gets really interesting for vehicle. I recently did the same calculations on range expectations for a couple other battery chem changes based on energy density/weight.
@manjeetkolte8601
Жыл бұрын
It's already been implemented in EV's. BYD seagull is going to have sodium ion batteries along with LFP.
@danielgraham8559
Жыл бұрын
Wildly optimistic timelines for the buildout of a sodium ion supply chain. I’d add 5 plus years to your timelines any scaled production of sodium ion. Just my opinion.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Could be! This was definitely aggressive imo
@Pseudoku_RL
Жыл бұрын
Hina is the best name for a sodium battery company I've ever heard
@FiDelZarlar
Жыл бұрын
Thanks so much for your scientific approach! 🙏
@JosueC730
Жыл бұрын
However, some articles and videos portray sodium ion batteries as a replacement for lithium ion, quite misleading from them. It's actually more like a complementary tech that works better in stationary energy storage as you say.
@igotanimac1
Жыл бұрын
The Ford Mach E base RWD/AWD Trim is now produced with a CATL LFP battery pack, 78 kWh in size (Munro got a pic of the label on the side of the battery), 72 usable. If a sodium Ion battery pack has a roughly 33% higher volumetric energy density than LFP, that means you can theoretically fit a 58.5 kWh sodium battery pack (around 55 usable) in a Ford Mach E, and a 60 kWh sodium pack in the slightly larger Model Y, around 57.5 usable. At the efficiency level of a Model Y, you can theoretically get 282 WLTP miles of range or 250 EPA Miles in a RWD Model Y with a 60 kWh sodium pack, or with AWD about 250 WLTP miles and 225 EPA Miles. And that's with 160 energy density, after 200 is reached, over 300 WLTP miles or 270 EPA miles of range will be accessible in AWD. The consensus is that we currently can't get more than 150 miles of range with sodium ion battery, what am I missing?
@budgetaudiophilelife-long5461
Жыл бұрын
THANKS JORDAN…🤗for sharing this with us …I RESPECT AND APPRECIATE YOUR THOUGHTS 🧐💚💚💚
@TomWallischh
Жыл бұрын
GREAT episode - As always!
@MyUniversalUniversity
Жыл бұрын
Well done and I understood you for the most part. 🙏🙏❤️❤️
@sagetmaster4
Жыл бұрын
The people who went full into lithium might be...salty
@MaxMisterC
Жыл бұрын
But Salty is also, oh, so Sodi-yummy!
@LithiumWave
Жыл бұрын
I'm very happy with my lithium mining investments. The "mining" aspect for sodium won't be as compelling when sodium ion batteries do reach measurable market share. Why? Because lithium ion batteries will have ramped & the market will seek some balance. Currently the only choice for your EV, home storage, or utility storage is lithium ion & demand grows faster then miners can hurdle regulations, raise funding, prove economical, & start construction. 2018 to 2028 will be the sweet spot to scoop up young miners preparing to establish net cash positive companies.
@MaxMisterC
Жыл бұрын
@@LithiumWave Humorous is NOT only a bone in the elbow...
@LithiumWave
Жыл бұрын
@@MaxMisterC you're thinking of the Humerus bone which is the upper arm bone, not really in the elbow. A for effort.
@MaxMisterC
Жыл бұрын
@@LithiumWave Does the upper arm bone, not enter the elbow then?
@terrysullivan1992
Жыл бұрын
Like many of those who diligently follow your posts ; I find a second, or even third, pass is needed to understand them as much as I can. Thanks again for all the work you put in to make them. BTW, I really want the hat, but not in black please.
@joewilder
Жыл бұрын
Congratulations on 100k subscribers
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Thanks, Joe!
@diennguyen6785
Жыл бұрын
I just would like be able to buy an upgraded battery pack for my Model Y in a few years that would give me 400 miles of range for a reasonable price.
@JRP3
Жыл бұрын
Not likely to happen.
@markwicklander6837
Жыл бұрын
Sodium ion batteries retain 90% capacity at -4f while lithium ion drops to 60% capacity. CATL is mixing LFP with sodium ion in the same packs for this reason.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
It doesn't adhere to lean principles. AKA, it's a gimmick. Good for niche use cases and publicity, but not a viable long term option.
@peterchung2024
Жыл бұрын
Oh boy, this seriously needs a sit down and actually use my brains… thanks JG. 😂
@stcredzero
Жыл бұрын
Volumetric energy density can be overcome with design. By changing the shape, the volume of the "skateboard" of the car can be maximized. Given this, a structural sodium iron battery pack could make for a very practical low end vehicle even for the North American market. EDIT: You cite 246 miles as suitable for a "commuter car." After 2 years and change, my 2020 Model 3 shows that as its maximum range!
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Depends on what you mean by overcome. You can't overcome first principles physics limitations. Energy vs structure to contain that energy.
@stcredzero
Жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor Well, maybe "mitigate" gives a more accurate sense in a way. If one is very, very good at getting the full dual use out of the batteries as structure, on top of an optimized structure, then in a sense, one is overcoming the difficulty. One can't make such a car equivalent to another with, say LFP cells. However, I suspect one can fit a such a sodium battery car to a specific niche that would even work for North America. So somewhat less range. Perhaps somewhat more compromised styling/functionality. But it could well work. I'm picturing a gumdrop or dome shaped compact car, with wheels pushed out to the corners, maximizing skateboard volume, while making it easier to build a strong structure of minimal weight.
@crobinso2010
Жыл бұрын
The lab results for Sodium Ion are impressive until you realize that by the time the batteries are produced in quantities, so too will be the (ever improving) next gen of Li ion batteries. Lithium Air batteries, for example, are claimed to have 10x the capacity of regular LFP.
@wolfgangpreier9160
Жыл бұрын
Those are not lab results. They are real world results and Na+ batteries are in mass production by HiNa and CATL. BYD says they have started, but BYD says much.
@matthewmanzi9504
Жыл бұрын
I'm not sure lithium air will be the winner but the premise is right that there are so many lithium battery tech improvements in the pipeline that it is likely one will succeed. Personally I think lithium metal batteries will win out with very high energy density, low fire risk, fast discharge and recharge times. There is a company out of Boston that is not only producing the batteries but the metal and is targeting a initial sub 50 dollars a kwh chemistry but has plans to get below 25 dollars. Not saying they will work but someone will.
@crobinso2010
Жыл бұрын
@@wolfgangpreier9160 I know but CATL said it will take up to 2 years to get 200. My point was that Li batteries are also developing rapidly
@wolfgangpreier9160
Жыл бұрын
@@crobinso2010 All batteries are evolving. Not only Li-Ion. Some like Na+, Li-Ion, LFP seemingly faster than others like Tesla 4680, Solid State, Redox Flow. The NA+ batteries are just a big media hype. In reality they will not be that much different than LFP or that much cheaper. They will get their place in products just as every other type and chemistry gets its place. I do not place any meaning in something someone said somewhere that they "iwill achieve" or "will be" or "will make". Thats all just wishful thinking. And i put Elon specifically into the same category with his FSD and robotics. Its all just wishful thinking. Make the product, let it be tested by us produce it and sell it to us and it will become a success. Then and only then it is a successful product.
@ghostmailgg
Жыл бұрын
Best videos on you tube 🏆
@kevtheobald
Жыл бұрын
Another excellent video. I totally agree with the idea that sodium blends will be more for power storage for homes, commercial buildings, and grid backups/balancing. That is fine since the need for batteries is so big, it is better for all industries if everyone is not using the same blend for all products. If Tesla was able to get a Model Y for $40,000 starting price in North America, with the sodium blend, I think most people would be fine with range of 200 miles. Do I really think that would happen, not likely, but I can dream. I do wonder if Tesla would be willing to deal with a variety of vendors for the sodium battery. Tesla adapts their products to the supplies that are available. I could see each factory having one battery vendor, but Tesla as a corporation having three or more vendors. Just look at how Tesla will be using 4680 batteries from their own factories and outside vendors.
@Nphen
Жыл бұрын
In a year or two, when the new Models 3 & Y are rocking FSD HW 4, and the new $25k smaller model is announced, with Cybertruck getting into new owners hands, there should be used Model Y going on sale for $35-$40k fairly regularly. Model Y sales started in 2020, Hertz started getting them in 2021 I think. I'm interested to see if they sell them at 3 years old or keep them. The used market took a big hit when the big price cuts happened, and we've had 2 more price cuts since then. If I can rent out Cybertruck enough to earn money for a newer car, I'd be looking at a used Model 3 or Y in a few years.
@EMichaelBall
Жыл бұрын
@Nathan DuPhene I wouldn’t be surprised if Hertz keeps the cars and buys more.
@brianarnold3250
Жыл бұрын
Good rational reasoning based on scientific analysis
@frankcoffey
Жыл бұрын
I expect to see at least 3 new battery types per year for the next decade. I'm not getting too excited about existing ones. Everyone working on batteries are on notice. You don't have "years" to get to market. By then something better will already be in production. The next few years are going to be a wild ride with stunning developments. One good thing about having more than one battery type is it keeps materials for getting too expensive. Look at what happened to lithium prices just this year. These new ones are a "shot over the bow" to keep prices down.
@Ravenought69
Жыл бұрын
Great video Jordan!!! Thx Greetings Andrew Wicket.
@konradandreenordvik9829
4 ай бұрын
A 300 km vs 400 km rang comparison is 25% less rang for the 300 km battery not 33%.
@KianFloppa
2 ай бұрын
great 🎉
@Rkcuddles
11 ай бұрын
Love the differentiation between gravimetric vs volumetric energy density. I don’t agree with your conclusion for vehicles. If we can reduce the weight but increase the volume and maintain energy density, we just get bigger cars! Aren’t these a perfect fit for large trucks that don’t care as much about volume?
@thelimitingfactor
11 ай бұрын
I don't understand. "reduce the weight but increase the volume and maintain energy density, we just get bigger cars" As for trucks, they're brutally inefficient due to their shape, so more batteries are needed which means more weight which means more batteries are needed. That is, trucks are even more sensitive to weight and energy density.
@George2647g
Жыл бұрын
Please review the latest CATL battery announcement of 500wh/kg thanks
@hkmp5kpdw
Жыл бұрын
Increase the battery capacity by 1/3 by stacking them in the frunk and trunk.
@walterhiegel3020
Жыл бұрын
To try and predict the chemistry evolution of sodium ion is really hard because so many things have to go right for it to be commercially viable. This would be a risk for any car manufacturer where timing is so critical. The first generation sodium ion will probably look like the ramp for 4680 tech. It is a total revamp of the battery chemistry. It will take time to verify quality and reliability of those cells. We can only hope for a peaceful ramp but manufacturers don't build on hope. Nowhere has Tesla commented on their using sodium ion batteries. When they do you can expect that they are convinced that that tech is ready.
@badabing6275
Жыл бұрын
Very good video. My only question is what Happened to Solid state li-ion battering which are meant to be 2 x the energy density of LFP batteries that have been in development for the last 5-10 years??
@patreekotime4578
Жыл бұрын
Seems like a perfect fit for large public transit and commercial delivery vehicles right out of the gate. These larger vehicles have plenty of space, but need to reduce weight and cost, and dont need to have huge ranges. Ive also heard that some companies are looking to push LFP into the energy density ranges of current high nickel cells. IF that does happen, high nickel cells may be pushed completely out of the market and a more energy-dense sodium-ion could come to occupy all the niches currently occupied by LFP. At that point, a new cheaper chemistry may become even better suited to stable storage. Thats all a big IF... but it seems more likely to me than the continued dominance of an expensive high-nickel chemistry. Of course IF that does happen it could throw a serious wrench into battery recycling schemes which depend on high materials costs to subsidize their operations.
@TheEvilmooseofdoom
Жыл бұрын
Unless they push high nickel cells to higher energy densities. :)
@patreekotime4578
Жыл бұрын
@@TheEvilmooseofdoom They would have to get insanely higher to work for the next niche up which is aeronautics and it looks like lithium metal may take that space. Maybe high nickel cells will stay around just because they exist and some customers dont mind spending the money, but I doubt they will remain dominant in places like trucking. So basically, for the most useless part of the market maybe they will stick around, but I cant see them maintaining dominance once LFP edges up to that density range. The economics make no sense, arguments for needing to continue to use cobalt make no sense, arguments for a need to use less-safe cells makes no sense. And industries that rely on nickel, like steel manufacturing will certainly appreciate a price drop in materials. And remember that if high-nickel cells go from industry-leader to a niche product, then the cost-at-scale paradigm goes inverse and they get even more expensive while LFP gets even cheaper. If Tesla or any other manufacturer is silo'ed into high-nickel when that transition hits, its be a vary bad thing. Or if for instance American regulators force high-nickel cells on the American manufacturers while everyone else is free to go LFP, the US EV industry will be screwed.
@MrFoxRobert
Жыл бұрын
Thank you! 👋👍
@davidlee2853
Жыл бұрын
Great video
@dge5348
Жыл бұрын
In cold climats LFP isn't good at all. When someone selects a commuter vehicle he needs to be sure that the vehicle fits his requirements in winter and LFP is extremely bad in winter. To fit his winter needs he has to select a much bigger battery with much more kWh than he would with sodium ion. In the end a sodium ion battery selected to fit the needs might be far less than half the price of a LFP battery and it wouldn't have much disadvantages when it comes to weight and size either.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
It's only extremely bad if you don't preheat it.
@mgronich948
Жыл бұрын
I've read that sodium ion batteries can be recharged 5000~10,000 time versus LPF that can only take ~1000 charge cycles. Since the cost of the battery is a major part of the cost of an EV, isn't this factor of 5 a really big deal, bigger than watt-hrs/kg?
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Depends on the sodium ion battery. Just like there are multiple li chemistries, there are multipole na chemistries.
@vincentrobinet2713
Жыл бұрын
The information and analysis provided in this video was very interesting. I would like to know if once a Sodium battery's thermal managment needs (or lack there of) are taken into account weather that would greatly impact the price of a Sodium powered car, and would a BMS be as critical with Sodium cells as it is with Lithium cells.
@vinceelliott4362
Жыл бұрын
My ten cents worth. I think you are being just a little short-sighted re 'Sodium' batteries. Recent breakthroughs in Australia and elsewhere are suggesting far higher volumetric and gravimetric energy densities may soon be available - though admittedly not here just yet. My point is that, with the fast pace of development, Sodium chemistries are quite likely to replace Lithium chemistries within the next decade.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
None of that conflicts with what I said here. I don't see how people are, assuming that I was somehow pessimistic in this video. I've acknowledged that the technology is moving fast, what takes long is the scaling.
@MarcoTrillion
Жыл бұрын
The mini Tesla simply because of its weight reduction go much further and will need much less of a battery size so the salt based battery might work plus CATL is also working on a battery that combines salt and lithium. So I think Tesla will start using salt based batteries for the smaller car being made in the Mexico Gigafactory.
@christiangunther1901
Жыл бұрын
great,... again!
@slifox2752
Жыл бұрын
No mention of sodium ion and Lithium phosphate cell mixtures… As each respective cell chemistry can take advantage of their potential… sodium with a lower temperature tolerance of -20 degrees C and quicker change rates… And LFP higher cycle life and capacity… The hybrid mix of cells could provide better tolerance to the harsh conditions of a EV battery no matter what environment…
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Hybrid packs are a gimmick IMO. That's why I didn't cover it. Doesn't follow lean design principles.
@gpsfinancial6988
Жыл бұрын
Any thoughts on the recycling market for these batteries? Will it still be economic if the inputs are much cheaper than other battery chemistries?
@mikereinhardt1244
Жыл бұрын
You missed a very important reason why sodium ion won't be used for the new Tesla budget car: in the US it would make it not applicable for the IRA credit. No one is making sodium ion batteries in North America that I am aware of. Of course they could be in the non-US versions.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Not missed. I felt the points I made were sufficient to illustrate the point.
@mikereinhardt1244
Жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor Ok, then you intentionally left out...😁
@zodiacfml
Жыл бұрын
While using sodium ion on EVs has no hurdles, the energy or BESS industry is as lucrative as EVs, which can easily take all the sodium ion production. So it is Unlikely for Tesla to consider sodium ion to its cars for several years, except for a rare scenario of severe excess sodium ion production that energy storage makers can't keep up
@jlamm2223443
Жыл бұрын
He leaves out that you can mix LFP with Sodium and maybe get the 250 miles of range that way, and that is what CATL is doing. This saves a lot on the lithium.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
He reads the comments. Hybrid packs are a gimmick IMO. Covered in other videos. Goes against lean principles.
@jlamm2223443
Жыл бұрын
I don't agree. Most people love cars where they sit a little higher. They just need to design the car from the start to have sodium ion batteries rather than one of several options.
@wolfgangpreier9160
Жыл бұрын
Please just speak for yourself. Not for „Most“ people.
@rogerstarkey5390
Жыл бұрын
@James Lamm Ref my post just after yours
@rogerstarkey5390
Жыл бұрын
@@wolfgangpreier9160 He makes a good point
@wolfgangpreier9160
Жыл бұрын
@@rogerstarkey5390 Maybe for him. Not for me. Not for the people around here. In Europe its better low, sleek, fast and not too large. In our area only posers and the fire brigade drive cars sitting higher.
@svetlinkarachorov4208
Жыл бұрын
The masterplan 3 of Tesla clearly says the compact car will use LFP with a size of 52kWh. There is no mystery. It came out 9 days before this video was published. It is on page 22 of the master plan.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Next time read the pinned comment.
@taykokhuat
Жыл бұрын
Finally, Chinese researchers save the day.
@nickmcconnell1291
Жыл бұрын
Interesting that Tesla just announced a new energy storage mega factory in China. Wonder if it will use the new sodium batteries and target markets in colder regions given sodium battery chemistry performs better in colder weather than LFP chemistries do??? Also, Tesla did say that their new mini Tesla would be battery agnostic. So they are intentionally making it to use various chemistries and possibly even form factor batteries. They probably have already learned how to do this as they have used prismatic structural batteries (in China) as well as BYD blade batteries in Germany along with the 2170 and 4680 form factors in the U.S.
@lachlanB323
Жыл бұрын
Also Tesla would prefer to supply Sodium Ion to Megapacks so 65gWh is not even enough for Tesla's Megapack factories that will require 40gWh per factory. Currently Tesla has two of them and plans a 3rd for Europe most likely. So unless they will have 140-180gWh of capacity by 2025 there's no way Tesla will use it in the Tesla mini. They may only have enough for Tesla's megafactory in China.
@strykerace
Жыл бұрын
In Master Plan part 3 the compact vehicle is listed as having LFP, not Sodium. Master Plan part 3 is through 2030 ish so Sodium isn't even a thought for Tesla vehicles. Maybe useful for other things.
@TheEvilmooseofdoom
Жыл бұрын
Hard to say when some of those master plan 3 sections were authored. Sodium could still have been lab bench tech when that was drafted.
@YourFrienjamin
Жыл бұрын
Your logo should spin in the intro to show its T, F and L all right side up.
@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck
Жыл бұрын
Sodium is going to shaker up the battery industry. MSG better watch out!
@NoInfoFound
Жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@LuciusC
10 ай бұрын
WH/L and WH/kg are neat and all but what about WH/$? If the value is there, Tesla will find a way to make it work. Even if it means designing the vehicle differently.
@thelimitingfactor
10 ай бұрын
That's covered in a separate video. I just released one on the topic 2 weeks ago
@Athrunwong
Жыл бұрын
Good news really, I am thinking of starting a conversion workshop when the batteries is cheap enough. Lots of old car deserves a second change, instead of scrap. How about we turn it into electric?
@chixtick
8 ай бұрын
Northvault of Sweden also manufacture Sodium Ion batteries for european EV markets
@thelimitingfactor
8 ай бұрын
Yeah, there's a dozen companies that want to produced sodium ion batteries. Nothing's hit the bigtime yet though
@davidwarwick4745
Жыл бұрын
How does this stack up with the Ampris announcement saying that their Na Battery will be 2x energy density ?
@BatterVswithAntonio
Жыл бұрын
Really depends on if they can scale it to mass production. The tech is there, but to use an old physics joke..."will it work above 3K with less than 10MPa/sqcm, without an inert environment, or using a sample that didn't take 8 months to precisely prepare for the exact experimental set-up in this specific lab?"
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Totally different tech for a totally different use case
@darwinjina
Жыл бұрын
questions: What is the recycling sustainability of these different chemicals? Is the number of charge cycles differ or not relevant to some chemicals?
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
All recycleable. But the question is whether its economic to for some of the elements.
@GerbenWulff
Жыл бұрын
We are reaching a point where EVs can compete with ICE cars. That means that EVs will start to penetrate markets in countries where governments do not subsidize EVs. The majority of the world population is living in tropical and subtropical areas: Southern China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Nigeria. Li-ion batteries have very poor lifetime in such climates. Chinese EVs sold in the Philippines offer 80% range after three years. As a result from an environmental or economic perspective Li-ion doesn't make sense for most of the world population. Na-ion is said to perform better at these higher temperatures. IF that is true, then there is a huge potential market.
@kgamaseg
Жыл бұрын
My question is: Will driving an EV powered with sodium ion batteries spike your blood pressure AFTER newer more powerful batteries enter the market?
@paulsutton5896
Жыл бұрын
Range dwindles into unimportance, when you consider the propensity to explode. Na-ion suddenly looks like being superior to highly dangerous Lithium.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Not really, lithium-ion battery packs are far safer than carrying around a gas tank. That is, we're just looking at the march of nines. Yeah, four nines is better than five nines, but not enough to alter people's product decisions for the most part. The most dangerous battery is the one on your cell phone that goes in your pocket.
@paulsutton5896
Жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor Thank you for your reply. I must admit to not having encountered this particular feature of the number nine, before. But I understand what you are saying. Since 2021, eight people in the UK have lost their lives trying to charge their electric bicycles. There must be similar figures in the USA. I have completely gone off lithium. Yet even as an ageing petrolhead, I like the technology of electrical vehicles. Sodium based chemistry looks A LOT safer than lithium based chemistry (not just slightly safer). But sodium batteries are less marketable in terms of vehicle range and performance. Safety is not "sexy". Lithium batteries are actually a liability, not liking to be charged above eighty percent or discharged below twenty percent, and becoming very volatile in colder temperatures. When I was a child in the 1950s/1960s we had wonderful electric vehicles in my home town - Wolverhampton, England. They were called: Trolley buses. If I remember correctly, the system was 500 volt DC. The overhead wires were taken down in 1965 because "the buses were an inconvenience to the private motor car". And in the 1960s, that, of course, was almost a blasphemy. I decided not to use a cell phone when they were introduced - in the days when phones were nothing more than phones. So I take a relaxed attitude to what I put in my pocket. But you have got me very worried about my toothbrush.
@darwinjina
Жыл бұрын
I remember hearing that it is wise to reduce the number of recharge cycles as possible. In that you should drive the car till it is low (example 20%) before it is charged to 100%, instead of incremental daily charges which used a small % of battery. (if you consume the battery 5% per day, then better to charge when you get low battery than recharge daily). Is this correct?
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Depends on the chemistry. LFP should be fully charged to a 100% about once per week to calibrate the BMS and it's fairly robust to 100% charge state in the battery itself. But the chemistry itself does actually lasts longer in a narrower charge cycle. High nickel suffers badly above 90% and rarely needs bms calibration. So 10-90% or 20-80% is best.
@darwinjina
Жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor What do you mean by narrower? I don't undertand. "But the chemistry itself does actually lasts longer in a narrower charge cycle."
@petersimms4982
Жыл бұрын
I would never underestimate the production capabilities of the Chinese 😊
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
I didn't, I overestimated them. Still haven't seen CATL release those sodium ion batteries and it's halfway through 2023.
@captainhypetv2604
Жыл бұрын
Great assessment and outlook! Thanks for putting the Na battery in perspective… isn’t there an even cheaper chemistry in the ring (dirt cheap) for grid/stationary storage? Volumetric/weight based energy density is quite irrelevant here…
@isaacamante4633
Жыл бұрын
Maybe liquid metal battery
@wolfgangpreier9160
Жыл бұрын
Maybe you are talking about redox flow? They try to develop those. Large, Unlimited capacity, limited power. About 70% efficiency.
@karenrobertsdottir4101
Жыл бұрын
There's many chemistries that have the potential to be cheaper. Alumium-based ones are very promising - I particularly like the recent progress on increasing cycle life and efficiency in elevated-temperature alumium-sulfur (Al is the most common element in the crust and is highly electronegative, while sulfur is a waste product and sulfuric acid is the most common industrial acid on Earth; very promising not just on cost, but also energy density). But FYI, don't just assume that Na-ion is going to be some fundamentally cheap chemistry. When we're not in a lithium price spike, lithium costs like $7/kWh. It does not dominate cell costs. And if you drop your cells' energy density, then you have to buy more of everything else, and have a higher manufacturing throughput (aka capital investment you have to amortize) to get the same GWh/yr of production capacity. Na-ion promises to allow one to use alumium instead of copper anode current collectors, but there'a alternatives to ditching copper foils, such as copper-coated polymer current collectors. And chemically, sodium is just a much more awkward ion to intercalate than lithium. I'm just nowhere near as excited about this as Jordan.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Not much is cheaper than sodium and iron, despite lots of claims, I'm not seeing commercialization of other tech at massive scale.
@wolfgangpreier9160
Жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor Yes. Me too. There are and always will be VERY promising new tech. I am waiting for the redox flow batteries from the Germans to be installed here. The largest electric battery in whole Europe. Maybe its coming next year. And in the meantime? How about ordering a Megapack? We may get one from Shanghai in 2026 if we are very good and eat our chicken Gong Bao.
@my2cents395
Жыл бұрын
Energy storage is important. Volume production will reduce costs which will increase demand. I think that a van and buses would suit this type of battery. From an aerodynamic point of view length is free. Buses are already long. School buses have short routes with breaks that could be used for charging. Plus do you want your child breathing diesel fumes. Vans often have a longer version. Vans usually are not purchased as performance vehicles. Businesses want the low cost option. If a sodium battery van will do the job for a lower cost over the life of the vehicle it would be a good choice. In the big picture producing products with sodium batteries will lower demand for other battery types. This could lower commodity input costs and battery costs. This will increase demand. Elon gets it. Most others don't.
@georgesidiropoulos4710
Жыл бұрын
Hello, sodium batteries have been around 1800's
@dude90120
Жыл бұрын
Yeah I agree. Wait what did you say?
@brettifill347
Жыл бұрын
My comment isn't about Sodium batteries but what do you think about the growing technology of ultra capacitors using graphene? There are German innovators surging in this tech.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Niche product
@ktan6738
Жыл бұрын
Lithium ion battery founder already founded aluminum battery. I wonder why we not going aluminum battery which charge faster and dun explode
@davidfrancis4414
Жыл бұрын
Any thoughts to share on the estimated life cycle and stability of sodium ion batteries?
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Depends on the cathode structure. As low as a 1k but could be 3k or more
@GregHassler
Жыл бұрын
CATL's range estimates are almost certainly based on WLTP.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
I think they have their own standard now, NADC or something to that effect.
@andrigtmiller
Жыл бұрын
I wouldn't expect the Tesla compact car to be available until the second half of 2025 at the earliest. They have to build a new factory in Mexico for it, and they will be doing an entirely new production technique for that car, so it's going to take some time to build the factory, and create the tooling for this new car platform.
@TheEvilmooseofdoom
Жыл бұрын
I thought the idea was to use the techniques they have been dialing in with Model Y in Texas.
@andrigtmiller
Жыл бұрын
@@TheEvilmooseofdoom No, during investor day they unveiled an entirely new production process that they will be using for the new compact car. They need that to reduce the cost even further. Eventually, when that process is dialed in on the new compact car they will bring it to other models. That is my understanding based on investor day.
@grecoangelo4
Жыл бұрын
Very interesting analysis 😎 In addition of the commuter vehicle and storage sodium using NVPF for the cathode may be used for 12v battery and 48 system such as MHEV. Sodium is surprisingly resistant compared to LFP but in term of energy release quite close to LFP Sodium is becoming very attractive due to the crazy price of lithium recently and to the possibility to use the existing tooling from Lithium. However , the first trial have shown that it was not that easy. Therefore , the drop of lithium price may extend the use of sodium for automotive. The LMFP is becoming interesting but manufacturing is not simple
@norwayroadvids1318
Жыл бұрын
Do you know if there is role being played by Prussian Blue in this development?
@albertiwong
Жыл бұрын
sodium ion is great news for renewals replacing gas and coal power generation.
@YousufAhmad0
Жыл бұрын
How would your analysis change after factoring in CATL announcing their new condensed state electrolyte technology?
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
That's not sodium ion, so not at all
@YousufAhmad0
Жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor I mean in terms of price per performance since that's one of the main factors for deciding which battery pack they're going to want to scale with at different model tiers.
@matthewmanzi9504
Жыл бұрын
Any thought on the ability to scale up prussian white?
@svenweihusen57
Жыл бұрын
I think you are underestimating the difficulty of increasing lithium production. Mines take years to ramp up while sodium is available in abundance and the production can be scaled way more easily. And as lithium gets more scarce the cost advantage of sodium will increase. Most people don't need anything beyond 150miles daily on a regular base. Lithium batteries are technically better than sodium but the price advantage will ultimately be THE selling argument for sodium. When Tesla needs 60GWh in 2025 they are fighting with other producers for the basic materials. I simply can't imagine that lithium production will scale fast enough to satisfy this demand within 2 year as other producers will also try to increase their production. Even for the readily available sodium it will be extremely hard to reach this degree of mass production in such a short time.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Not sure how you came to a conclusion about my assumptions about lithium ion production from a video about sodium ion for vehicles. I've been pounding the table about lithium ion production for 3 years now, so you've got it wrong.
@svenweihusen57
Жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor sorry, will look into your other videos. McKinsey made a study on lithium batteries where the expected lithium mining was only 45% in 2030 of the expected consumption. So car manufactorers may have to bite the bullet with sodium batteries because lithium batteries may not simply be available.
@TheWineroute
Жыл бұрын
I wonder on your take on gravity batteries? They seem fairly easy to scale especially where steep terrain is abundant.
@niceguy100000
Жыл бұрын
I like pumped storage. But it's far from easy to do and you need to create ginormous lakes at top and bottom. Would love to see a lifetime cost comparison compared to LFP, like cost per megawatt-hour per year.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Gravity batteries are bunk. Good videos out there on this
@TheWineroute
Жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor please point to one.
@niceguy100000
Жыл бұрын
@@thelimitingfactor For what it's worth, Wikipedia describes pumped-storage hydroelectricity as the most common example of a gravity battery. Not sure though if that's what the OP meant.
@TheEvilmooseofdoom
Жыл бұрын
@@TheWineroute I found a few with the search feature. It seems to be (not having watched one yet) that the biggest issue is more moving parts. That means more points of failure and more maintenance costs.
@zegamerz1980
3 ай бұрын
All those talks about "Tesla would release"... I've never seen anything go on schedule at Tesla. Musk has been promising Full self driving "Next year" each year since 2016...
@13thbiosphere
Жыл бұрын
Tesla Compact could be sodium 2025...... Tesla megapack predominantly sodium?
@rogerstarkey5390
Жыл бұрын
"Compact"? Doubtful. Storage? Quite possibly.
@wolfgangpreier9160
Жыл бұрын
No. LFP are better for solar storage because they last longer. If someone invents a Na+ cell with 10.000 cycles lifetime - everything changes. Really large batteries could be redox flow types. Sometimes in the future. Maybe.
@13thbiosphere
Жыл бұрын
@@wolfgangpreier9160 yeah we're going to find out pretty soon
@PvMLad
Жыл бұрын
53kWh for the robotaxi/model 2. Not 40 like you said.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
You're talking about the master plan part 3. I think you're jumping to conclusions there. That document is not the be all and end all.
@douggolde7582
Жыл бұрын
Going out 10 years there will probably be other chemistries not considered here.
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Not really. If you want to see them in 10 years, they need to be commercialized at high volume now.
@noisypl
Жыл бұрын
Is video about CATL's 500Wh/kg baterry comming?
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
No, they didn't tell us anything other than they can come up with cool words. Come on, bio mimetic? 🙄
@ricky4673
Жыл бұрын
I just want a stable charge curve and 300 mile range. I wanna be able to charge at 150 kw until 85 percent.
@NaughtyGoatFarm
Жыл бұрын
No mention of M3P batteries?
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Different topic, different day.
@sirus312
Жыл бұрын
What about solid state batteries and Quantum Scape?
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Already did videos on that
@jameshoffman552
Жыл бұрын
The master plan part three list the battery size of the mini at 53 kWh
@thelimitingfactor
Жыл бұрын
Correct, but at what point in time is that figure for? And, is that for the Tesla mini or is it for all compact EVs? That is, people are jumping to too many conclusions.
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