Don't buy yet. Patience, the prices will go down. Insurance and taxes are high too. Please be patient, it will get better.
@KingFergus
7 ай бұрын
These realtors kill me, spreading FUD to try and keep their jobs. This is the absolute top of the market and the interest rate have doubled but its "time to buy".. inventory historically NEVER skyrockets in the winter, it does that in the spring. So this spring prices will drop like a hot rock. Buy a house now if you want to see your biggest investment be worth nothing lol.
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
Thankfully we don't have "jobs." 😃 Let's keep an eye on supply as it is a big event happening now in South Florida. No FUD being spread here - just sharing the data... 👍
@aesthetictrades
7 ай бұрын
Wraith ur dead on brother. Sell assets now and buy at least 12-18 mo after fed cut rates and after unemployment peaks above 15-20%
@KingFergus
7 ай бұрын
@aesthetictrades home prices need to drop by about %50 to put them in the correct range. If interest rates didn't double I would have said %30. Buying a home right now means you will more than likely never build any equity which is exactly why you buy a house in the first place
@aesthetictrades
7 ай бұрын
@@KingFergus trust me I've been analyzing alot of historical data and everything is showing me we are going to see alot of people losing jobs and homes which will also be a large opportunity for a select few retail investors and mainly institutions so they can turn people into a renter class. 08 is gonna be a walk in the party compared to the everything bubble. Shorting regional banks is my Micheal burry big short moment lol just waiting for the next opportunity after the first republic collapse made me over 10000% returns
@kerrykerry5778
7 ай бұрын
Absolutely 100% correct. Out of control property tax increases, the biggest homeowner's insurance disaster in North America. A problem that is sadly under the control of a totally corrupt legislature, and an insurance commissioner, another DeSantis shitbird flunky, who claims it is the result of "Woke" outside influence. Prices that spiked 45-90% in every county in the state, in the last four years. Inventory skyrocketing across the state. Nationally, December existing home sales volume was the lowest in 41 years. Mortgage rates still climbing as banks tighten up, PRICE THEIR PRODUCTS BASED ON ANTICIPATED RISK, not on fed rates, and eliminate all kinds of credit availability. Condo associations and HOAs are battling for survival in some cases, and many are faced with massive increases in operating expenses, skyrocketing dues, and special assessments, for exponential increases in insurance and the bill that is now due for decades of deferred maintenance, AKA gross negligence. I smelled this rat a little while back and dumped my Florida condo for a sweet ROI. That money is making 5%+ on treasuries, while I rent for a fraction of the cost of buying back in. Severe recessions and property market collapses are a regular event in our economic system. When they happen, and the next one is overdue and obviously underway, they drive two or three regional markets right through the floor every time. Florida ALWAYS makes that short list.
@stephenremo9200
7 ай бұрын
Wouldn't buy there until they fix the insurance problem.. 20 thousand for 80 percent coverage is crazy time. Of course if no mortgage you can
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
@stephenremo9200 - There is that, too. Insurance is a big issue. So are rising HOA fees, the Condo SIRS issue with the 12/31/24 deadline... always something. But, folks continue to move to Florida and Texas and Arizona for the SUN! And warmth. And that won't change...
@stephenremo9200
7 ай бұрын
Just out of curiosity about 15 20years ago they were practically giving away condos in Miami. Do you think it will get that bad again
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
@@stephenremo9200 Hi Stephen. I've been in real estate since 1994. The Global Crisis (15 years ago) was a one-off thing. The mortgage meltdown. That was quite unique and caused massive havoc on worldwide real estate. Will it get that bad again? Not likely, but all markets are cyclical, so they go up then come down. Fundamentals now look good for more continue strength on a macro level, but it's best to focus on the area you want to buy/sell and dive deep into the local happenings. Miami is one of the strongest markets in the US right now and it has a lot going for it. Patience?
@computanoisae
7 ай бұрын
Sure! Lol. Definitely not the time to jump in this unaffordable market. Rates are still high and the prices through the roof. Unaffordable son. Prices have to go way, way, down. You mentioned these birds coming from the north. Man, people are broke everywhere. For there to be cash buyers they first need to sell their assets in the north and no one is buying anywhere. People have tons of equity (on paper) but who can get a loan for this prices in South Florida at close to 7% rates. Let sellers come back down to Earth and I'll think about it. Have the money, have the credit, but living comfortably and happy as a renter. Good luck to you all... Don't buy now!
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
Great points! Good that you are informed and even better you have a strategy. Stick with that. Patience is a good thing and the right time for you will come... 🙌 It's not for everyone, but with over 1,000 people Per DAY moving to Florida they must rent or buy somewhere.
@davidmercer5561
7 ай бұрын
I'd wait a year. Rates will be way down and prices will be less.
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
Patience, not inertia, is a great thing!
@aesthetictrades
7 ай бұрын
uhhh yeah dont think so bud considering median home prices are falling at the fastest pace ever going back to 1964 since data only goes back to that year
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
Not here. Median prices are still positive, but less positive that the last few years. But with al this supply flooding our South Florida market, prices should continue easing. Stay tuned and glued to local data - not national data.
@aesthetictrades
7 ай бұрын
@@johnmwieland unemployment is likely to skyrocket to roughly 7~ by end of year and im expecting 15-20% by the time the market actually bottoms. I'm buying up mega cheap foreclosures. That's historically the move. You are just gonna get people burnt buyin in this market. Literally just look at what Warren buffet is doing essentially going short on housing and don't get me started on commercial 😂
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
@@aesthetictrades 7% unemployment? 15%, when? These re bold numbers. When is this? Of course things are cyclical so I expect the downturn soon, but fundamentals are still in play. Funny about Warren as he owns one of the biggest real estate brokerages in the US. Then again, my friends said I was coocoo back in 1996 when I was buying SoCal real estate after the Orange County bankruptcy. I was "buying high." Almost 30 years later it's still the best move I've made. Through all the highs and derail from the GFC of '08, rents keep rising and IRR gets stronger.
@aesthetictrades
7 ай бұрын
@@johnmwieland hard to say when. And that's just my guess based on data and history but I understand how extreme that sounds and I am not exaggerating. I'm watching yield curve M2 supply and more data points than I can list showing the probability of this being a massive downturn are incredibly high and ai and illegal immigration is just fuel on the proverbial unemployment fire
@silcozot
7 ай бұрын
Or maybe wait about a year......time will tell you are wrong!
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
Hm, wrong about what? This is about today's market. Eventually, this go up or down, so you're right. But this is about now. Have a great day!
@Slide61
7 ай бұрын
Yeah hurry in and get saddled with sky rocketing car and home insurance rates. As an added bonus you get a nice bump on your property tax bill versus the previous owner.
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
👊😃
@NightRidah777
7 ай бұрын
Yay we're saved. Houses are affordable now 😂😂
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
Well, not yet. But, this could be the start of a new real estate market in SoFlo. It's a leading indicator. Stay tuned!
@Jillyre
7 ай бұрын
Hi Mr Downtown Delray 😊
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
Hellooo there Jillyre! Make it a great day!
@Jillyre
7 ай бұрын
Have a great day 😊
@matthewkelleyhotmail
7 ай бұрын
There is greater downside risk than upside potential since housing has never been this un-affordable on historical charts comparing income to housing. The median house cost has far exceeded the average income level and that is a serious statistical problem going forward.
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
Great points Matt. Waiting for the day when you can buy low is a good strategy. No one knows when that will be and there are families who do need housing now. So, different needs for folks.. 👊🤙
@danherrema4277
7 ай бұрын
Why isn’t he talking about the insurance rates and taxes since 2019 and the decline in weekly rental demand? 🤣
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
@danherrema4277 because my video is about surging supply. I did another video where I talked about the insurance debacle. I haven't done one on the rental demand - perhaps that's coming up soon. Thanks for the idea! I like to stick to ONE idea per video. ✌👊
@craigrose1130
7 ай бұрын
Yes, there's more inventory, but the prices are still WAY TOO HIGH (even with some decreases) for most people to make the purchase here in SWFL. This video is pure FOMO.
@johnmwieland
7 ай бұрын
No FOMO meant, just sharing pertinent local real estate data that folks find useful. Prices are high and this flood of supply should curtail prices from increasing. We will see how it plays out... 👊🙌
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