As a nerdy lover of statistics and probability, this has really piqued my interest on how to properly analyse sport data. For me, this is where I could spend hours either usefully spending my time pouring over the data or just unknowingly wasting it. If i can learn to be efficient and know what I am looking for, then I can find those probability edges in the markets. Thanks Peter
@betangeltv
2 жыл бұрын
If you are 'into' data there is so much to discover about the market, individual sports and human nature. If you have the passion there is a whole world to discover.
@niko73le
2 жыл бұрын
I'm so glad I haven't been using betfair sp all this time!
@marknicholson6240
2 жыл бұрын
Hello I am currently setting up my pc which will be in transit and hopefully here for Friday, set up as soon as it arrives , then I will be going on betfair exchamge , I have been winning with little stakes but am going step it up a little , but will first strut watching more of your videos and sort the academy out also ,it will take me Friday night to add all my betting apps, how many screens qould you recommend I have thought about 2 to start with ?
@twoshedsjackson6478
2 жыл бұрын
2 will be plenty. More stuff doesn't mean more profit. Spend as LITTLE as you can.
@michaelcorrigan4625
2 жыл бұрын
Great advice. Thanks for this vid Peter. My current project during the close season for the big leagues in Europe relates to spread and probability of win BTTS. All this data is freely available as you point out. Also of value for the bet BTTS no draw markets. Always enjoy your videos.
@betangeltv
2 жыл бұрын
Many thanks. I'm always heartened by positive comments.
@johnristheanswer
2 жыл бұрын
On the football commentary the other day they said "Ireland had never met England in a major women's football tournament ". Overlooking the fact * Ireland * have NEVER qualified for ANY major tournament in the past.
@betangeltv
2 жыл бұрын
I love the football season when common narratives appear that are completely false. Lazy journalism, but ultimately it's pumped to them by these service providers in the background.
@AlanVickers1992
2 жыл бұрын
Trouble I have with the data sifting on Betfair, is I tend not to know the Market ID. Sometimes takes more time locating the data I need than actually using it
@betangeltv
2 жыл бұрын
I think all the exchanges have missed a trick by not publishing more data and encouraging more use of it. Commercially, they feel the data is owned by them and they need to generate a revenue stream from it. If it was carefully curated and shared, then it would surely encourage more activity.
@grahambeyer6254
2 жыл бұрын
How would you relate this to trading Horse Racing markets?
@betangeltv
2 жыл бұрын
Racing is one of the harder problems to solve, but ultimately speed is the key factor in racing.
@sarajohnson313
2 жыл бұрын
Pretend we know nothing about technical analysis and want to be able to predict overnight premarket gap-ups. Please be so kind and explain to us in the most simple and concise way possible as if you would explain it to a 10 year old, how can we predict overnight premarket gap-ups? Your help would mean the world to me because these pandemic years have been extremely traumatic and tragic for me as I lost numerous loved ones so you can imagine how I feel. 🙏
@rstevens7711
2 жыл бұрын
Peter, that really is an astonishing claim about the Betfair SP data. I'd always been a little suspicious about some things (horses starting slowly suddenly having a BFSP three points higher than what it was trading at etc), but is it really true? That sounds rude, and I don't mean to be. Sometimes when I watch a race through Betfair's Live Video the market appears to be suspended at the time the stalls open, or am I getting this wrong?
@betangeltv
2 жыл бұрын
Betfair SP is almost useless as a 'true' starting price. I've also been monitoring something that recently changed on Betfair SP that looks even worse. I may break it out and do a video separately on it, as I think the impact is lost in this video.
@rstevens7711
2 жыл бұрын
@@betangeltv Thanks for the reply. I appreciate that lots of people are looking for formulas, metrics, algorithims etc to use for trading. But I'd be very keen to see any more of your work on Betfair SP.
@globi166
2 жыл бұрын
Peter what do you mean by saying "these numbers dont sort of fit"?
@betangeltv
2 жыл бұрын
If you get some data and apply a distribution to it, it should reflect that dataset. If it doesn't then you don't have a good fit and you may need to look at a different distribution.
@globi166
2 жыл бұрын
@@betangeltv so if different distributors give different results, won't I be looking for the one that will suit my bias?
@betangeltv
2 жыл бұрын
That's perfectly possible. Biases exist right through the entire process. Right from collecting data to analysing and predicting it. So you have to work hard to avoid those. When I put data to use in a market, I run two strategies on the data. One that should work and one that shouldn't. That will confirm if I've nailed it, forgotten to include something, or introduced a bias. Some of my best strategies have come out of this process when I uncovered something I wasn't looking for.
@globi166
2 жыл бұрын
@@betangeltv cool thanks, two more questions: why in the data set numbers 3 and 0 came up once but on distribution they have different probability 3 (5.75%) 0 (13,93%) ? also how come distribution "knows" that 4 is possible if it's not on the data set?
@betangeltv
2 жыл бұрын
It assumes a certain probability distribution. So you fit your observable data to that line and therefore it can predict items that you have not seen yet.
@iandmcneill
2 жыл бұрын
Should "Events" not be "Event"?
@temp911Luke
2 жыл бұрын
I dont get it. You sure thats correct ? Why does it say there is 45% chance of number 1 showing up next ? Do you not say in the video that the past results dont matter ?
@daveo836
2 жыл бұрын
I always wanted to make a bomb while trading😀
@betangeltv
2 жыл бұрын
It's a blast!
@georgebuller1914
2 жыл бұрын
7:47-Oxymoron? ;-)...
@rodrigoms75
2 жыл бұрын
🤷🏽♂️… did not get the point.
@betangeltv
2 жыл бұрын
Using past data like this will allow you to predict what will happen in the future. From a value betting perspective, that will help you find value. From a trading perspective, you will be able to anticipate what the price should be.
@ceeabee
2 жыл бұрын
What a load of rubbish. if you could predict the future by number manipulation then I think Pythagoras or Archimedes would have found a way. Total waffle for the impressionable & naive.
@betangeltv
2 жыл бұрын
Perhaps have a read-up on it before you dismiss something. It's a well understood concept: - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
@globi166
2 жыл бұрын
@@betangeltv he might be referring to N Taleb, about applying gaussian distribution to the fileds where probabilities are unknown, however this is not the case in sports betting or casino games as probabilities are know and no black swans exists e.g no -1 on roulette will suddenly appear or rules in football (in the middle of the game) are changed.
@andrewvickers4487
4 ай бұрын
Hehe well maybe not antiquity but probability theory has been around for a while... And I think you've nailed the exact converse of the truth with your last comment.
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