If I’m not mistaken, nobody who knows anything about this war agrees with this guy.
@jimluebke3869
Жыл бұрын
Checking in 4 months later -- "This is still Russia's war to lose" - Peter Zeihan
@cantrell0817
Жыл бұрын
I had the same thought. Perhaps he thinks Crimea is vulnerable but everywhere the Russians have rail support gives them superiority.
@189Blake
Жыл бұрын
Update: still waiting for the so called "collapse" of the Russian front line.
@jimluebke3869
Жыл бұрын
@@189Blake The front line is apparently incredibly fortified now. There's a fairly good chance it's not going to move anywhere at this point... either eastward, or westward. We should probably follow suit, helping fortify things like the Estonian border. Who says defense contractors need wars to get business? Just the pragmatic _fear of_ war is enough, and that's probably never going to go away.
@POLITICS_IDEOLOGY_SOCIAL-fu5yl
3 ай бұрын
@@jimluebke3869 any updates or it doesnt makes sense anymore?
@jimluebke3869
3 ай бұрын
@@POLITICS_IDEOLOGY_SOCIAL-fu5yl Has Crimea fallen yet?
@neutralevil1917
Жыл бұрын
That didn't age well
@johnuppole
Жыл бұрын
Appreciate the effort and thought put into this video! These longer-form videos are much more insightful!
@anantahallahan7846
Жыл бұрын
Watching this video more than 3 months later, turns out Peter's prediction was totally incorrect. He failed to account for Russia doubling down and focusing on another front (Bakhmut) to take pressure off the south of Ukraine. Looking at the current situation, it doesn't seem like Russia will be facing a "humiliating defeat" as so many claim, and UAF have their work cut out for them in future battles. I like Peter's macroeconomic predictions and have learned quite a lot from him, but military doesn't seem to be his strong suit. Stick to the market, Peter, not the battlefield.
@tylerk3616
Жыл бұрын
3 months after your comment, and Russia has fully taken Bahkmut and Ukraine has taken huge casualties.
@pb48711
Жыл бұрын
Yeah, he cannot tell the difference between a FAB-500 and a Kinzhal missile when it comes to wreckage photos. Only flag-wavers who believe Ukraine's Intelligence reports actually believe that the totally crappy Patriot system, even with PAC-3, shot down a hypersonic. Agree with you that Peter's economic forecasting and knowledge are solid but he's not that good at military affairs IMO.
@189Blake
Жыл бұрын
Update: Ukranian counter offensive was a complete failure. They didnt retake any important objective. Russian front is still strong.
@constantinuslefug2874
11 ай бұрын
One month after the last post: The fabled Russian retreat has still failed to materialize. Also still awaiting the collapse of the Russian economy and various countries with Russian bases attacking and evicting Russian/Wagner forces (predicted in another video). Currently, Ukraine is still struggling to push south and has captured several villages and farm fields. No famine yet.
@texasjack
Жыл бұрын
Great discussion. One comment regarding Crimea growing their own food. We are heading into winter, and then add a normal growing season and we are in early summer before they harvest anything. This phase may well be over long before they think about producing anything to eat locally.
@strawberryhaze8836
Жыл бұрын
one of the tracks of the Kerch bridge was restored the next day and now works both ways even for the passenger trains. the reporter is factually wrong. And massively wrong overall as his whole analysis is based on the fact that there is no supply from the Kerch bridge.
@wolfgangpagel6989
Жыл бұрын
Of course it does not work normally. And more it could be attacked again.
@davis.fourohfour
Жыл бұрын
Crimea will surrender by Christmas when the water and power is cut off. No food, no juice, no water, no hope of any after the Kerst bridge is finally destroyed soon. Can't wait.
@marresjepie1887
Жыл бұрын
@@strawberryhaze8836 Nope. Just one rail track, rightly not trusted for really heavy wagons (i.e. with 50t tanks), and one -slow, lane for cars. But keep hoping and coping sweetie.
@dough9512
Жыл бұрын
A quick glance at the map months ago would have shown that the Russian army was going to eventually have such severe supply problems in the south that it would eventually become a clawless, toothless paper bear. Taking Kherson was not necessary. Crossing the Dnipro River near its mouth is just proving how weak the Russian Army already is in that area. Control of Melitopol is key. Further damage to "the bridge" could easily lead to Russian panic - civilian and military.
@jamesdawson2510
Жыл бұрын
This was a beautifully clear and well planned out video. The speaker was articulate and easy to understand, the concepts were easy to grasp and organised. My first time seeing a video on this channel, and I'm absolutely coming back for more. Excellent quality content.
@ryancoleman7082
Жыл бұрын
This guy actually predicted Russia would invade like 5 years ago. He has videos on a bunch of other channels, check them out too
@martinosvath5285
Жыл бұрын
His latest book The end of the world is just the beginning, is excellent. On audiobook. Highly recommend
@thegreatujo
Жыл бұрын
Same here. First video on this channel. Liked it.
@greghuntington9277
Жыл бұрын
Let's all clap our cheeks in celebration!
@giovanni-ed7zq
Жыл бұрын
@@greghuntington9277 we all can have a world celebration holiday when russia goes bankrupt sometime late spring early summer with oil price cap and also the secondary sanctions coming
@buddermonger2000
Жыл бұрын
Zeihan has officially transitioned to an actual video presentation. The most basic form of it, but one nonetheless.
@Blackdiamond2
Жыл бұрын
Next up: new microphone
@BuddyLee23
Жыл бұрын
Well we are getting his expertise for free, so…not really worth his time/effort to put a lot into any one of these. Clearly, his career is not predicated upon monetized YT videos.
@luiul1
Жыл бұрын
he always has been. didn't you see the one from colorado with the deer walking around behind him? it's just that other, more aggressive content creators took his stuff. prolly without his permission. so that is what you saw.
@sergeant64
Жыл бұрын
To every argument there is a *balancing counter argument.* None of this in the video. There is plenty of unknown factors in play. What about a cold winter in Europe, will the German government be able to stay in power? ... will Europe be tramped by migration (controlled by Russian hybrid operations). If China take the opportunity to attack Taiwan,.. will USA have enough with spare ammo to send to Taiwan or does Ukraine have to conserve their stockpile??
@fantabuloussnuffaluffagus
Жыл бұрын
@@sergeant64 Germany has it covered, no problem. China is more likely to attack Hǎishēnwǎi (Vladivostok) than Taiwan while Putler is busy getting his ass kicked. It's easier to kick someone who's dying, weak and exhausted than it is to fight the US. Russia has shot its bolt, its done.
@mmmuwwwti2
Жыл бұрын
Very good analysis, big thank you from Munich, Germany 🇩🇪
@ezjokester
Жыл бұрын
I hope nobody takes these videos seriously. Two months after this video and Ukraine is just about done and the real Russian offensive hasn't even started.
@Ihateallthegods
Жыл бұрын
All of this because of Saint HIMARS.
@NothingIsKnown00
Жыл бұрын
Blessed be his name.
@jezalb2710
Жыл бұрын
Alleluja
@willywonka4340
Жыл бұрын
😆
@patavinity1262
Жыл бұрын
No, complex strategic situations can't be reduced to the deployment of a single weapon.
@Nick-bh5bk
Жыл бұрын
It is interesting how moments like this reveal the true value of one piece of equipment over another.
@LookAwayMarkAtkins
Жыл бұрын
I have made a note for myself to watch this video again in May of 2023 to see if Mr Zeihan's exceedingly confidently delivered predictions come true.
@pocolol8424
Жыл бұрын
Well what he’s saying about Russia applies to Ukraine. He should read the reports in his own media telling of Ukraine losing weapons faster than can be supplied. Europe have depleted their stocks.
@karendunning5594
Жыл бұрын
This video will age like a fine diabetic urine. Might want to archive it in a jar to dump on him, January-February time frame.
@austinlowrance5943
Жыл бұрын
@pocolol8424 it's not as bad as it would seem production facilities are being built and we Americans have 3 years worth of ammo some 13 million artillery rounds based on the highest monthly consumption for Ukraine we can keep them lock and loaded until more ammo production came online.
@bgoomba6475
Жыл бұрын
I bet they won't.
@ibrahimtall6209
Жыл бұрын
Not usually. He's WAY too confident w/ his predictions, then just never addresses it when he's incorrect, which diminishes credibility. I like Zeihan but his works are better for understanding how we got to this point historically speaking, and what things actually make civilizations. One the prediction side...it seems like he's hit or miss. For example, he predicted that Ukraine would be able to decimate the bottle-necked Russians as they retreated across the Nipur river. He also predicted the damn would be broken and flood the russian forces. Neither of these things came to pass. It would do him well to explain why things played out differently than he predicted. It's okay to b wrong, just admit it and have a dialogue instead of just barelling forward.
@ManusMacLean
Жыл бұрын
I agree with everything said/written except... The water was turned off by Ukraine in 2014 and wasn't turned back on until March (?) of 2022. Turning off the water, by Ukraine or Russia, is bad for Crimea, but not as bad or immediately bad as described. Between 2014 and 2022 Crimeans still drank water (and vodka), took showers and flushed toilets. Also, the Kerch Bridge wasn't completed until 2018... I think there will be shortages in food and water but I think an Ethiopia-type famine is a stretch...
@st-ex8506
Жыл бұрын
The water coming from the Dniepro reservoir through the Crimea canal is needed for crimean agriculture, not for domestic water. And Crimean agriculture has been suffering a lot since 2014.
@BigDsGaming2022
Жыл бұрын
financial advisors are heavy bullshitters
@bombdatacenters
Жыл бұрын
It's worth noting that the amount of water used for household purposes is insignificant compared to the amount needed for agriculture, something like 1% of water use is domestic, iirc.
@st-ex8506
Жыл бұрын
@paladin danse I believe the war was dammed, not damned. At least, we can hope so...
@jamesodonnell8290
Жыл бұрын
You must consider the fact that they were previously getting food via Ukraine and/or shipping, and neither of those are viable anymore, so the only options are Kerch bridge and the land bridge, both of which Ukraine is likely to target. If total destruction is achieved, Russia's attempts to supply the peninsula will be reduced to small boats or airdrops.
@doublejay74
Жыл бұрын
From South Texas, thank you for your analysis and insight on this war. I like watching several sources of news to get a clearer picture of the whole matter and examining your information makes some sense to the situation. Either way, liked and subscribed. Thanks again.
@robosfrustradosmexico3763
Жыл бұрын
funny you think this guy is one of your sources
@de4ds1ghtcsgo94
Жыл бұрын
Here is my analysis. Ukraine is about to get frozen out... funny how effective US military tactics are is all i can say
@doublejay74
Жыл бұрын
@@robosfrustradosmexico3763 funny why? What’s your take besides trying to sound like you have this sorted out yet provide no insight. Now I see the funny in that. Read my comment again. So far, western analysts have gotten it right on how this war is favoring Ukraine at this point.
@doublejay74
Жыл бұрын
@@de4ds1ghtcsgo94 And what are US military tactics to you. If it was the US in this ground war, it would have been over by now. Sounds a bit arrogant but just look at how poorly the Russian army is equip. Their tactics are out dated as well. And that winter affects both armies not just one. This is Ukraine’s home field and it favores them. Russians are struggling on resupplies. So again, it makes sense to what this guy is saying. Time will tell.
@de4ds1ghtcsgo94
Жыл бұрын
@@doublejay74 it would have been over in about 1.5 hours and russia europe and the US would be destroyed.
@terencesullivan3286
Жыл бұрын
Interesting as usual. Thanks again Peter!
@jab100lochaber
Жыл бұрын
Churchill's WWII quote could apply here: "This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
@nightspore4850
Жыл бұрын
Maybe. If Putin loses Crimea, internal Russian rebellion plus a collapsed economy could bring on the beginning of the end right quick.
@msimon6808
Жыл бұрын
@@nightspore4850 - right quick
@grugnotice7746
Жыл бұрын
@@nightspore4850 Or, you know, he launched nukes. Which is what the war hawks that would replace him are screeching for.
@dearmas9068
Жыл бұрын
@@grugnotice7746 I really dont see a nuclear detonation occurring at any time
@grugnotice7746
Жыл бұрын
@@dearmas9068 This is the geopolitical version of the stabbing victim whose last words were "What are you gonna do, stab me??"
@warrenreid6109
Жыл бұрын
This was one of your best reports. I loved the details put into it.
@twin2482
Жыл бұрын
It was longer so he can put more data in the video
@lada9840
Жыл бұрын
The name of the city is Kherson, not Kerson (Keerson)! "Kh" is the international transportation of the "kh" sound like in "Mr. Khan". Therefore, Kher•son, Khar•kiv, Ka•khov•ka, Ba•kh•mut. Ukrainian is very easy to pronounce when words are separated into syllables, and distinctly pronounced separately: Ky•iv, Ma•ri•u•pol, My•ko•la•yiv, Mar•ha•nets, Dni•pro, Ke•r•ch, A•zov, Me•li•to•pol, Ber•dya•nsk, Se•vas•to•pol, Za•po•rizh•zhia, Do•ne•tsk.
@kanesmith9325
Жыл бұрын
Great job on this , your analysis has a high probability, I enjoy how you throw it down so clearly of the cuff . Thanks
@johnlaudenslager706
Жыл бұрын
Shouldn't Ukraine receive whatever it takes to keep all railways into Crimea and through Kherson/Zaporizhzhia inoperable?
@rule1capital
Жыл бұрын
10+ minute video from Peter Z is like 8 hour interview between Lex Fridman and Balaji...
@nikw3026
Жыл бұрын
hes an idiot lmaooo
@pavellia741
Жыл бұрын
Love your precise, clear observations. Lové your slower, well presented comments. Clearly you are a master presenter. Will follow you till the end of this ,,,,
@Hallrud
Жыл бұрын
Really well done. Thank you!
@erikn54
Жыл бұрын
None of your predictions turned out to be true. What went wrong?
@mikeborrelli193
Жыл бұрын
He's consistently been predicting the collapse of China for 15 years..
@waynesworldofsci-tech
Жыл бұрын
The smart move would be to retreat to the 2013 borders, but… My personal take is that if Ukraine can pull an Operation Husky the best option would be to cut straight from the isthmus by the Dnipro mouth, and cut off Crimea by land. Then you don’t need to wait for Crimea to devolve to desert. If they can’t, Berdyansk would be my guess.
@oveidasinclair982
Жыл бұрын
Ukrainian special forces have been pouring into the lower Zaporizhzhia Oblast for months, those Bolshevik transports don't stand a chance right now
@jimduffield7822
Жыл бұрын
Smart move is for Russians to dig in and let Ukrainians take 10-1 casualties trying to attack until Ukraine runs out of soldiers while building a massive reserve in the rear to counter attack once the Ukrainians start getting weak. Zeihan just gets paid to tell neocons what they want to hear.
@patavinity1262
Жыл бұрын
Do you mean crossing the river from the newly-liberated territories? No, that's stupid.
@apsestasis
Жыл бұрын
that's a bad, bad idea. supplying a force by sea is a significantly harder challenge
@waynesworldofsci-tech
Жыл бұрын
@@jimduffield7822 Ukraine would just use its artillery superiority. That’s what it did in Kherson and Kharkiv.
@NoBSMusicReviews
Жыл бұрын
Excellent. Thank you.
@raphaelschicho4236
Жыл бұрын
Peter‘s audio is like a western armed Ukrainian militia, it gets at you from everywhere: the bass, the high’s, the part of your headphones you didn’t even know existed
@UrMomEatsShitt
Жыл бұрын
Lmao
@micholli
Жыл бұрын
I stop everything to watch your videos and take in your opinion. Thank you for the wonderful books.
@brianfreeman8290
Жыл бұрын
Not only an excellent presentation, but, unlike most bloggers, you're not fannying around with the map images, and there's no curser dancing around like a demented housefly. Consider me subscribed. Oh, and no music, but many bloggers have learned their lesson by now, but that is appreciated too.
@johnskrelnik
Жыл бұрын
🤡
@SeenD
Жыл бұрын
4:54 Scooby-Doo vans... hahaha, and so true... Nice analysis. And good use of the map like this, super helpful.
@NWfan2
Жыл бұрын
That was funny.
@nspowers7130
Жыл бұрын
Mr. Ziehan was only one of two people that I know that predicted Russia would invade Ukraine. Years ago.
@roberttaylor3594
Жыл бұрын
And that the Russians would win…
@billthebuilder1579
Жыл бұрын
I remember at the time it seemed highly theoretical but being correct about that does not mean Zeihan will maintain 100% accuracy.
@adiosa1388
Жыл бұрын
How about millions of poles balts that predicted it before it was cool in the west
@paulltyler
Жыл бұрын
Yeah in Absent Superpower, published in 2014 or 15 as I recall.
@UrMomEatsShitt
Жыл бұрын
He was wrong about the result when it first happened
@vermontsownboy6957
Жыл бұрын
Peter - It's interesting to see your analysis evolve over time: in March you noted (to nobody's surprise) that while 'Ukraine's army is punching is above its weight, russian superiority in numbers make the end result no less inevitable: Ukraine will be overrun by russia.' Clearly that's not what we're talking about today. I suspect governments and analysist will examine and dissect this war for decades. For now I'd be curious to hear both your (Peter's) and other respondents views to explain Ukraine's success pushing back the (perhaps) world's second most feared military structure. I'll propose a couple obvious ideas to start the conversation, in no order of importance: - Fierce Ukrainian will to survive and live free = will to fight; - Lack of russian will to fight; - Lack of russian assets capable of fighting a 21st century war; - Lack of russian maintenance, logistics, discipline, command-control and field agility; - Sanctions against russia = increasingly paralyzed production economy; - Sophisticated Ukrainian work force, technological R&D, and production resources; - Well educated, disciplined, agile, and responsive Ukrainian population; when the war arrived in their country, Ukrainians quickly adjusted the "mental map" in their heads and girded to defend the country. IMO this import cannot be overstated; - American and other country assistance in military assets and training; - An unknown quantity of daily critical satellite/targeting/tactical intelligence to make Ukrainian artillery "shots" count. - Other analysis?
@DANIELPETROVSKI
Жыл бұрын
what about usa buying artilery rounds from south korea? how would you explain that.? each asistance package getting meager? and mobilizing 70+ year olds and women.
@neohubris
Жыл бұрын
I'd like to see Peter update his original conclusions and tell us why things have changed. If any mistakes or assumptions were made, what were they and what changed?
@ryansmith290
Жыл бұрын
It's also due to the leadership of Joe Biden and not Putin's puppet in Donald Trump at helm.
@nut4534
Жыл бұрын
Since I see this long post - if you want to get in touch to ask Peter about it I would suggest Twitter as he is active there and responds to people asking him questions
@markj6854
Жыл бұрын
What has really made the difference is Ukraine neutralising the Russian air force and to a lesser extent navy. Air power was the biggest difference between the two. Imagine if the Russian air force was able to fly at will and bomb advancing Ukrainians. I think the other big differences are access to modern weapons from the west and superior numbers. Ukraine fully mobilised at the start of the war while Russia partially mobilised 6 weeks ago. Russia are outnumbered by an army with more sophisticated weaponry
@jonathanbuzzard1376
Жыл бұрын
There are actually a couple of critical rail bridges that Ukraine could do to take out that would make supplying the LPR/DPR much harder. One at 48.641N, 39.694E over the Derkul River. That is out of GLMRS range so would need ATACMS, or possibly the UK supplied Stormshadow cruise missile would do the job. The next is at 50.005N, 38.201E over the Urazova River. This is currently in artillery range so could well have already been taken out. There is a couple of other railway lines but there are no good places to cut them inside Ukraine, it would require taking bridges in Russia proper to cut the lines. However all reduction in rail traffic is catastrophic for Russia. Note you don't have to take the actual Kerch bridge out to render it ineffective. After coming ashore in Crimea the railway line about 4km from the coast comes to a railway station at Kerch Yuzhnaya. Nothing remarkable about that other than prior to the station there is nowhere for offloading as the railway line is on an embankment. The station itself is of no use for anything but passengers as the station has had to be squeezed into the terrain. About 1km west of the station the line branches (I would guess the original line and a new line for the Kerch Bridge) before crossing over the E97 highway at 45.324N, 36.407E. which again is new construction for the Kerch Bridge. Take out these two bridges and the Kerch bridge might as well not exist.
@reeceengineering3560
Жыл бұрын
Time one of the railroad attacks to just before a train comes, the train de-rails & requires weeks to clean up
@bennuballbags2
Жыл бұрын
I love it, you tell it in plain English. Ive been following a lot of people but you make sense. Cheers Zeihan
@sufiyogi
Жыл бұрын
Would love to see Zeihan debate Scott Ritter on Ukraine/Russia.
@mendyboio3917
Жыл бұрын
I can't express how much I truley apreciate the details and map. Have been and will continue to pray for peace. Thank you, Peter.
@Symmetry77
Жыл бұрын
Lets hope it happens sooner rather than later. Ukraine deserves to live in peace and be free
@paulwiegerinck528
Жыл бұрын
So do the people of Donbas and Luhansk,
@yanniestyan
Жыл бұрын
@@paulwiegerinck528 They will be free and in peace. In Ukraine of course
@Symmetry77
Жыл бұрын
@@paulwiegerinck528 They are paying the price for selling themselves to the ruski fascists
@Bob_Adkins
Жыл бұрын
@@paulwiegerinck528 They deserve to have Putin's stooges kicked out that he installed a decade ago.
@hashitoromkatt1944
Жыл бұрын
@@paulwiegerinck528 there would've never been a war without igor girkin and russia, so keep that donbas bs to urself
@christopherflack7629
Жыл бұрын
That was one of the best pieces of analysis I have watched in the last six months.
@grugnotice7746
Жыл бұрын
Now that's a sad state of affairs.
@thesaltbaron3029
Жыл бұрын
Oh dear oh dear
@altemzwo8390
Жыл бұрын
I'm kind of unconvinced by your analysis of the shipping options. Berdyansk, Kerch and Feodosia all have ports that are connected to the rail network in Southern Ukraine/Crimea. There's also a ferry line between Kerch and Russia, including a rail ferry. The ferrys were all discontinued in 2020, according to wikipedia something reopened after the bridge was blown up, but it's not clear to me if that's just passenger or also rail. Now, I really don't know if all that is going to be enough to fully replace the bridge, especially for the military, but claiming Sevastopol is the only port for shipping that the Russians can use is just plain wrong.
@enriqueperezarce5485
Жыл бұрын
You know ferry’s would be alright for a peacetime situation, but in a war we’re your men are consuming a lot of calories to fight, ferries are untenable, Kherson showed us that.
@YN-ot9jk
Жыл бұрын
just wait for the winter when the ground is frozen. Peter's analysis is way too biased an superoptimistic. For example, why can't 300k mobilized troops get into offensive to get to Dnipro? What the recent drone and missile attacks on energy infrastructure and fuel depots in Ukraine will do to Ukraine's logistics? Russians sure gave up any hope to ever capture Odessa with this withdrawal though.
@karstenschuhmann8334
Жыл бұрын
Once Ukraine has a bit of coast on the sea of Asov the ferris and the bridge will be in range of naval drones.
@robosfrustradosmexico3763
Жыл бұрын
this dude smoking stuff and making videos as if he is allowed on the battlefield or given the battle plans and talking things straight out of his as whole, and ukrainians pretending to americans praising him is very interesting to me,
@thesaltbaron3029
Жыл бұрын
@@YN-ot9jk Stalin captured odessa via Crooked Horn, I’m sure the russians are looking to tread that tried & tested path again. They will have to move on Dnipro first though. I agree, Peter has no clue what he is talking about. The current kill ratio is around 1 russian to 6 ukranians, but listening to Peter you would think it was the other way around. Ukraine has achieved some success in disrupting Russian logistics, but Russia has completely obliterated a very large part, maybe more than half of Ukrainian logistics, especially energy infrastructure. Everyone is free to ignore reality, no one is free to ignore the consequences of reality. Perhaps Peter is right & General Mark Milley is wrong. But I doubt it.
@flashfuture27
Жыл бұрын
Peter's comprehension of the variables influencing the war situation is crazily accurate.
@UnpluggedDiesel
Жыл бұрын
Not really, he initially thought that Kyiv would fall in 2 weeks. He's just making guesses based on his knowledge. He's a great speaker and conveys he's ideas smoothly.
@flashfuture27
Жыл бұрын
@UnpluggedDiesel what analyst did not see Ukraine collapsing in a few weeks when Russia was mounting its forces on the borders? No one knew that Russia had logistics, supply lines, and equipment problems. Also one needed time to assess the results of American weapons and equipment on the battlefield. Now that all these variables demonstrate their effects on the war, forecasting can be made more accurately.
@The_Omegaman
Жыл бұрын
@@UnpluggedDiesel agreed. He is confident in his projections.
@scarletpimpernel230
Жыл бұрын
@Bryan X: I agree that Peter's takes are valuable and thought-provoking, but 'Unplugged' is right. He makes lots of mistakes because he thinks he can predict everything so deductively. Some analysts did have serious questions about Russia's capabilities, but they were ones who knew Russia very well. Peter didn't-he was wrong because he didn't have that specific knowledge. He also made crazy predictions about Russia rolling further east, into Moldavia, or even NATO states, which was not likely to happen. Right now he's predicting that China will collapse in like 2 weeks! China has problems, both short- and long-term, but these videos are often just made to get lots of views, after which, six months later, everyone forgets how wrong Peter was.
@flashfuture27
Жыл бұрын
@Scarlet Pimpernel I've followed most of Peter's works and lectures and have not heard him say China is collapsing in two weeks. Furthermore, I agreed with his forecasting of the Russian invasion of Moldova. Like I said before, no top geopolitical analyst knew that the Russia War machine was not fit to fight this war. Moldova is part of the Bessarabian gap which is a geostrategic point for the Russians to take over. Peter has predicted China's demographic collapse, the winding down of globalization, and the reshoring and near-shoring of manufacturing capacity.
@lobstereleven4610
Жыл бұрын
Always look forward to these vids. Thanks!
@peterbellini6102
Жыл бұрын
Comms and Logistics: part of what we have (and do) better than anyone else. The training and doctrine we've helped them with is working almost optimally at this stage. BTW, buses transporting ammo? Party time! Slavi Ukraine
@Gorboduc
Жыл бұрын
PS - your Mississippi river comparison has me refreshing my memory about Grant's Vicksburg campaign. 🤔
@LRRPFco52
Жыл бұрын
There’s a STARTFOR video on the geography of the United States that is a must watch to understand US geography. I’ve traveled across the US and lived in 8 States in Southwest, New England, Southeast, PNW, DC/Virginia, CO, and UT and never had it explained to me that way. I watched that and asked, “Why hasn’t anyone told me this before?” I attended multiple schools, deployed all over as a military brat and active duty soldier, lived all over abroad, did strategic analyses of terrain and combat systems in their regional deployment postures, constantly measuring distances, power centers, bases, weapons reach, logistic routes, population centers, water bodies, and still never saw the big picture the way George Friedman and Peter Zeihan laid it all out.
@grugnotice7746
Жыл бұрын
Now imagine if the South had tactical and strategic nukes that they were reluctant to use unless they were pushed to a point of desperation.
@rohanmillson3182
Жыл бұрын
Ouch, ouch, ouch.... Yet another Zeihan prediction that fell flat on its face... What partisan movement? What ground thrust? This guy is wrong 99% of the time yet he carries on, undeterred, quite shamelessly
@safriedrich1631
Жыл бұрын
Peter, thanks for your insights.. can't do with out them and always on the look-out for your next... You said you were in San Antonio.. well, the background sure looks like part of, or near the Hill Country.. hope you feel welcomed and that our South Texas hospitality embraces you. Please keep keeping us informed.
@jacobnewell-oldoakdao
Жыл бұрын
Really appreciate you Peter Zeihan sharing your knowledge and insights.
@davidpitchford6510
Жыл бұрын
All I can say is Crimea River LOL. Thanks!
@kristofferkavallin
Жыл бұрын
Again this canal that provides Crimea with water is mentioned. I need some clarification why this is a gamechanger this time around, because from what I have understod that water source was cut off most of the period between 2014 and 2022 and Crimea did manage to survive somehow.
@Warfoki
Жыл бұрын
They brought in water through the Kerch bridge at astronomical costs. This not about drinking water though, it's about water that is necessary to make the Crimean land arable, without it, desertification sets in.
@kevf
Жыл бұрын
The Kerch bridge didn't exist then.
@yaroslavromanov8357
Жыл бұрын
crimean bridge was opened in 2018 crimean canal was cut in 2014 all population of crimea are ukranian citizens
@ChucksSEADnDEAD
Жыл бұрын
Russia spent billions shipping fresh water and investing in desalination. Gaining control of the canal was a big deal because Russia eased some pressure off.
@joelmccoy9969
11 ай бұрын
It is now ten months later, this didn't age well. No big change is imminent.
@LookAwayMarkAtkins
5 ай бұрын
Mr Zeihan, I admire you for leaving your wrong predictions up. No one bats a thousand.
@uzbekuncle
Жыл бұрын
This is quite a perspective. Fascinating to see how things play out as prime reasons and consequences.
@Gorboduc
Жыл бұрын
There's unconfirmed reports trickling in that the Ukrainians are active in the far-west Kinburn Peninsula, which would mean first landfall on the occupied side of the Dniepro, with the added benefit of neatly avoiding the Russian forces at Kherson and Nova K. Combine that with a Melitopol advance and they've got a nice pincer movement going.
@lioneddy
Жыл бұрын
And it totally makes sense! Now that Kherson is under UA control this strategy is viable.
@Nick-bh5bk
Жыл бұрын
yeah, if so, they can get behind the apprently 3 dug in trench lines of defense, which would really put pressure on the Russians. The only question about this strategy that I have is if the Russian's truly have mined the Nova Karkova dam to the north. If so, they may as well retreat further south to the peninsula and wait for the Ukrainians to push south before blowing it and flooding the region and the Ukrainian troops.
@hugokappes4077
Жыл бұрын
@@Nick-bh5bk if they blow the dam there will be no water flow to Crimea,,
@LRRPFco52
Жыл бұрын
They’ve crossed the river now: kzitem.info/news/bejne/zZx_zKKJkmKJin4
@Gorboduc
Жыл бұрын
@@Nick-bh5bk I've been wondering about that dam, eg was it the Russian's trump card to avoid being shelled on the way out of Kherson? But at the same time, wouldn't blowing it up do the most damage to Crimea, whose water comes from that reservoir? It's confusing. 🤔
@seanbinkley7363
Жыл бұрын
The Russians using “Scooby Doo” vans conjure up such a great image: “Like zoinks, Scoob! The Russians are drafting us!”
@brrrrr256
Жыл бұрын
I completely agree with your wording at the end. This is the end of the "easy" part of the war for Ukraine.
@de4ds1ghtcsgo94
Жыл бұрын
Yes. But with recent events a nato withdrawal is also possible
@Young_BZ
Жыл бұрын
Scooby Doo vans kills me everytime.
@Kokozaftran
Жыл бұрын
Guarded and skeptic-optimism for me as always. 🇵🇭❤️🇺🇦💪🏿
@wnicklas
Жыл бұрын
Ooooh my dear 😳👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻 A couple of hours ago, I was just amazed over how Ukrainians have crossed the river Dnepr at Ohlesky (rumours) and was thinking out loud with my friends how I would go for Melitopol instead and cut the russians off.... And not go over the river.....but I guess the russians had the same thought and did not expect this attack. As I follow you on podcast, I was amazed how you describe this and as well over your scenario in Crimea. This will be the defeat in history that make russia.... Well, I hope even China go for a piece of russia. 😁 Thank you for your serious videos from all around Peter 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
@MrUntapishtim
Жыл бұрын
You are delusional. But you would really like a piece of that Russia, eh!? Russians know it :)
@stephenmarcus9601
Жыл бұрын
China wants a weakened Russian vessel state from which to eventually acquire eastern chunks and wants central Asia, the "stans" as a sphere of influence. China wants to see America and Europe weakened as well. Via N Korea China will ensure Russia gets just enough munitions. US was stupid not allowing Russia into NATO in 2000 when Putin asked. This would have enabled the West to isolate China & added additional former Soviet bases. The rejection of Russia as opposed to embrace of th he Soviet World led to today.
@wnicklas
Жыл бұрын
@@stephenmarcus9601 you might have a good point here.
@trimetrodon
Жыл бұрын
So, how is the Ukrainian conquest going?
@wnicklas
Жыл бұрын
@@trimetrodon you are one of putinas conscripts or trolls? You got to love life.... 😂😂😂😂 суки
@davidanon1568
Жыл бұрын
It's been six months, have the Ukrainians gotten any closer to Crimea ?
@eddiedaly2551
Жыл бұрын
Surely the Kerch bridge will be repaired soon. That way RUS will resupply there. Also not sure UKR control the canal yet
@AnonymousAlcoholic772
Жыл бұрын
Ironically, the combined arms of the worlds most powerful navies struggled mightily to take Crimea in the 1860s. I guess that’s progress
@laurenceT141
Жыл бұрын
I think Kherson is an interesting example of a modern siege, the Ukrainians didn't need to surround the city to cut it off, they just "tricked" or encouraged the Russians into overloading their front and cut the supply lines. They've now got a pretty unassailable redoubt to launch longer range strikes along the south.
@BigDsGaming2022
Жыл бұрын
Since they counter attacked all supply lines to it were cut the Orcs had nothing to fight with
@stevehope5346
Жыл бұрын
The Ukrainian army have fire control over the left bank of the Dnipro, the terrain is very different to the right bank. I think there will be a lot more activity there, It seems easy to defend, but the logistical line is the longest to there for Russia. Don't forget Svatove is moving also. The Zaporizhzhia line has moved so little for a reason this last few months. As encouraging as this video is, chances are fire control over Starbilsk is the aim now. More logistical constriction first.
@johndbro1
Жыл бұрын
IMO, the bold yet potentially knock-out step would be to push from Zaprozhiva to Melitopol and fortify that corridor. Cuts off everyone to the south (much like Sherman's march to the sea), puts the Kerch bridge and most (all) of the ports in the Sea of Azov in rane of artillery. Everyone south of that line (Kherson and Crimea) would likely be obliged to surrender fairly quickly. The challenges would be fortifying that line against counterattack and supplying that fairly narrow swath. I am sure the UA generals have considered this and if they don't do it, it's because they know things I don't know. I'm just strategerizing
@NeutroniummAlchemist
Жыл бұрын
From what I've heard, Ukraine originally wanted to do something like this, but wargamed it out and found that it would fail. They then came up with the strategy of attacking Kherson and Kharkov simultaneously to stretch Russian logistics to the breaking point. That plan has now culminated, and Russia is weaker than it was. I think they'll go and do something exactly like you said, and do it within the next few weeks. Exactly where they attack won't be known until it is already happening though. It could be anywhere from Donetsk to Melitopol.
@ericraymond3734
Жыл бұрын
Yup. that's the obvious next move alright. Unless the new Kherson line just crumbles under pressure within days, which wouldn't surprise me a lot.
@ludvikbukach5711
Жыл бұрын
My suspicion is Ukr will open with a series of probing attacks between Vasylivka and Donetsk with the goal of exploiting and developing a two-prong attack, one towards Melitopol, the shortest distance to cut off the south, E-105, and a screening attack towards Berdyansk and Mariupol, T0815-T0803, to engage any counterattacking Russian forces.
@christianlibertarian5488
Жыл бұрын
No question that thousands, ne' millions of people (including me) think this way. So it would come as no surprise to the Russians. So probably not the way it will happen. But who knows, the Russians certainly telegraphed their offensives in WWII, and the Nazis couldn't stop them.
@Ass_of_Amalek
Жыл бұрын
do you mean zaporizhzhia?
@TheChannelofOrange
Жыл бұрын
Checking in 8 months later. Unfortunately, the counteroffensive did not go as planned. Practically no territorial gains by either side
@its_ben_carter
Жыл бұрын
Thanks Peter appreciate all you do mate
@timothywalker4563
Жыл бұрын
That was a good up date, Peter don’t worry about drawing lines it gets the job done😊. Partisan activity there’s a wrinkle I haven’t heard of in a long time. I’m going to guess these are locals and not happy at all and very well motivated, I wouldn’t want to be a Russian and I’ll just leave it at that😳
@jimkeith2335
Жыл бұрын
Great prediction except for one point. It was 100% wrong!!
@briancase6180
Жыл бұрын
It's just so interesting to get Peter's sometimes unique perspective. I'm a fan now. I don't expect perfect predictions, but I always get tasty food for thought. Thanks!
@tulipalll
Жыл бұрын
That's a great take! 👍
@RobBCactive
Жыл бұрын
Lololol Peter's predictions are terriblr
@msimon6808
Жыл бұрын
@@RobBCactive The Russians have taken Kyiv? They are holding Kherson?
@nikw3026
Жыл бұрын
@@msimon6808 Ukraine has no power and water. His predictions are awful Its western white and black peoples dreams. The US govs dreams. Hes a propagandist, its reallly sad
@merlingeikie
Жыл бұрын
Thanks Buddy Good work mate! 🕯️🇦🇺🙏
@samipan3410
Жыл бұрын
Amen to this.
@educa2278
Жыл бұрын
Heroiam Slava !!!! 💛💙❤🙏🙏🙏
@johnnyreason4262
Жыл бұрын
Glory to God. F--- Ukrainian kosher junta!!
@dennissalisbury496
Жыл бұрын
Logistics proves to be the most strategic battlefield variable; Russia is fighting the high-technology weapons systems available from the world's military-industrial complex.
@msimon6808
Жыл бұрын
There is a saying "Amateurs study battles...... "
@xxwookey
Жыл бұрын
The sluice gate is on the southern/eastern side of the river so right now its still under Russian control. And nobody was crazy enough to break the dam so there is still water in the lake and thus canal. And blowing the sluice up probably leaves it open, so Crimea gets to keep their water supply for the time being. As you point out, getting across the river and maintaining a bridgehead is very (implausibly?) hard so it's actually going to be quite difficult for the Ukrainians to block that off. On the other hand I think this thing will be done before another growing season is over so food grown in Crimea is not going to be a significant factor.
@johnbrewer1430
Жыл бұрын
Good point. I wonder how well-guarded the control center that raises and lowers the gates is? Imagine Ukrainian SF taking the control center over, lowering the gates, and then severely damaging the power to it and severely damaging the mechanism to raise and lower the gates. Looking at Google maps, it looks kind of like a dam. I don't know the situation on the ground, but if you were to feint an attack across the Dnipro from Kherson, have your best artillery folks start to pound the area around the gates, but not the gates after SF has snuck in, they may not have very much resistance. Do their thing and scoot. No more water for Crimea, until all of the mess, can be repaired.
@mostlyguesses8385
Жыл бұрын
Yeah, what does Zeihan keep saying water now can be denied Crimea?
@xxwookey
Жыл бұрын
@@johnbrewer1430 It's possible. No doubt someone is thinking about such scenarios. But how hard would it be to just blow up the sluice at that point? Having it stuck on is fine for the Russians. I presume; maybe the control has to be reasonably fine otherwise there are overflowing problems downstream? I have no idea if there would be problems with this. Clearly there are people on the Ukrainian side who know all the details of how the system works so can work out if there is a plausible way to disable it reasonably permanently. If destroying the sluicegate leaves it working and there is no major downside, then the Russians may already have done that...
@volters9561
Жыл бұрын
Maybe you just need to lower the water up a dam?
@gunnar6674
Жыл бұрын
The sluice has also been partly filled in with rock and gravel to make a road crossing.
@hawkeye1370
Жыл бұрын
These updates are amazing, thank you.
@missouribob7850
Жыл бұрын
I wonder if Peter Z. has considered what would happen if some Saudi oil terminals went up in flames? Supply of oil drops. Prices rise. All of a sudden Russian oil is in demand again. I am surprised that this has not happened yet.
@demun6065
Жыл бұрын
Well, yes. But the only people to benefit from that would be Russia and Iran. So who would set the terminals alight? Perhaps Iran, on behalf of Russia... But I imagine they'd only do so if Russia actually transferred some weapons that Iran desperately needs ie. Submarines, anti-air or aircraft (eg. SU-27+)
@nathandyer4368
8 ай бұрын
So... that aged well😂
@ricardomartins286
Жыл бұрын
Love your videos but the title is wrong... It's the beginning of the liberation of Crimea
@newshound64
Жыл бұрын
You are assuming that the entire rail traffic over the Kerch bridge has been disabled. In fact, only one of the two tracks was affected by the explosion. As a result, military logistics have priority over the remaining track on the Kerch bridge. It continues to flow via rail.
@essarr1082
Жыл бұрын
I dunno, stopped believing Zeihan when he said back March/April that Russian oil production would grind to a near halt by July because of their old oil wells and lack of western technology.
@lettucesalad3560
Жыл бұрын
I remember when somebody said Ukraine would only last a few weeks..
@amcalabrese1
Жыл бұрын
Weeks? They were talking days at the beginning.
@DavidOfWhitehills
Жыл бұрын
That was me. So glad I was wrong.
@amcalabrese1
Жыл бұрын
@@DavidOfWhitehills I figured we were arming the Ukrainians for an insurgency. I am glad I was wrong too.
@jimifed2798
Жыл бұрын
True thats mostly what I heard in the beginning but there was one Usa general saying Ukraine would be like swallowing a porcupine.
@amcalabrese1
Жыл бұрын
@@jimifed2798 A lot can still happen but for the next ten years “you fight like a Ukrainian” will be considered high praise. Slava Ukraini!
@markmarco2880
Жыл бұрын
Excellent reporting. Glory to the heroes.
@yojimbo3681
Жыл бұрын
Guys, let's make this video famous lol.
@staterepjameswhite1531
Жыл бұрын
Pride comes before the fall…
@PNH-sf4jz
Жыл бұрын
"Et tu Brute? Then fall, Caesar." Pootin wants to be a Tzar. He may reach the goal of being 'Cae-Tzar', with his last breath and may not see much of his seventy first year. From various sources, including those inside Russia, there appears to be tension within the ranks. Pootin has such lofty goals and yet he wants to hide behind the petti-coats and hang on to the apron-strings of little sister, Ukraine. Another characteristic of a bully when issues and events are not going their way. How absolutely ridiculous and pathetic ? 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
@bc-guy852
Жыл бұрын
First time viewer comment: I love the content and analysis. I am HOPING that the audio quality (or lack thereof) was an accident or this is not the normal quality of mic and camera? I'll subscribe and see what else you have to say. Very impressed with your opinions and analysis - hoping for a production improvement.
@michaelwaldmeier1601
Жыл бұрын
I read a report which said that the Ukrainians have also gone to the western tip of the peninsula across from Kherson /Dniepro River. Can you confirm?
@MusicalMemeology
Жыл бұрын
It’s officially announced by Ukraine government so yeah.
@MusicalMemeology
Жыл бұрын
Check out channel reporting from Ukraine for daily military strategy updates. Great channel.
@alexjgilpin
Жыл бұрын
Very possible, though strategically not very significant. Ukraine has very little way of establishing a true beachhead upon which to unload logistics. The peninsula doesn't even have a port large enough to support a few villages off of itself, so how is Ukraine going to transport tanks or missiles or food for even a few thousand troops over to Heroiske? Ukraine doesn't have mike boats and a bridge would get hammered into the water long before it spans anything. Anything over-river right now is a harassment mission, withholding Rus troops. *If* Ukraine were to start receiving LCM-8 from Europe and the US, however, then you might expect serious movement across the Dnieper. Those can ferry heavy machinery and packages without needing to pick a stable (shellable) embarkation point.
@giovanni-ed7zq
Жыл бұрын
@@alexjgilpin they wont attack across the river. that peninsula is swamp and sand so armor cant go there. its gonna be in zap region to take melitopol and the nuclear power plant back.
@aldofromsf
Жыл бұрын
Tak (YES!), Slava Ukraini!
@LolAsdov
Жыл бұрын
nice prediction everything is going according it 😂😂
@clintmalone4060
Жыл бұрын
Yea… this did not age wel! 😂😂
@iwalkalone4016
Жыл бұрын
LOL how did that work out
@alexiatorrez7680
Жыл бұрын
Finally, I found a video that help me to understand the military situation. Thank you 🙏🏻
@ademirrodriguez4209
Жыл бұрын
Zeihan the LIAAAAAAR ¡¡¡
@dwhite6213
Жыл бұрын
How is your prediction holding up?
@royhorologic1732
Жыл бұрын
Wildly optimistic.
@giovanni-ed7zq
Жыл бұрын
it really isnt, russia is basically a ww2 artillery army. without artillery their infantry is trash. cut off russian logistics is how to beat the russian army. once the ground hardens ukraine can start doing blitz krieg and take melitopol and the power plant back. then push the russians into crimea cut the water off. then push to mariopol and destroy the kerch bridge anywhere along the shore line. russian logistics weak having to use trucks.
@AvantNoir
Жыл бұрын
@@giovanni-ed7zq The Ukranian army is practically done already. They don't have the forces to take Crimea. If they're plan is to wait until Spring in order to starve them out then that's pretty stupid seeing as Russia is about to deply 300,000 troops.
@Phillip.810
Жыл бұрын
I am curious as to Peter's thoughts on the likelihood of a tactical nuclear strike now. Losing Crimea is simply not an option for Putin, as its fall would surely end his tenure.
@sarahfunaki3884
Жыл бұрын
Russia would never use a nuke on Russian territory nor on Ukrainian territory
@grugnotice7746
Жыл бұрын
@@sarahfunaki3884 lmao, sure, if they decided to skip straight to the end and launch everything they had against the West. That is like saying the US wouldn't use nukes to defend the entire Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific (minus Alaska) coasts form invasion and occupation. If you think nuclear superpower Russia will sit by and allow the next century to be stolen from it, you have another thing coming.
@sarahfunaki3884
Жыл бұрын
@@grugnotice7746 Russia would only use a tactical nuke on her own territory ( Which in their thinking means Ukraine as well ) if the survival of the state was threatened. This comes from their own battle doctrine on their use. The way it is portrayed in Western media is Putin will Nuke Ukrainian cities out of spite
@grugnotice7746
Жыл бұрын
@@sarahfunaki3884 That is correct. I don't think they will necessarily use them over the territories they annexed this year, but I am almost certain they would use them to defend Crimea, as the loss of Crimea renders them neutered for 100 years.
@kevinrusch3627
Жыл бұрын
4 months ago, Zeihan was still saying "Russia's going to clobber Ukraine as soon as they decide to take this war seriously." So, while these explanations are factually correct, make sure to find a broad source of inputs for your conclusions.
@Name-vu1kn
Жыл бұрын
Scooby-Doo van is the best description for those vehicles. I just imagine Putin shaking his fist saying “and I would have got away with it, if wasn’t for you pesky western democracies.”
@chopsticksandtrains
Жыл бұрын
你好Peter!I'm in China now, but when I'm back stateside it would be super cool to be able to meet up, have a couple beers and talk geopolitics for a few hours! Keep the great content coming!
@noboru7347
Жыл бұрын
Lucky. I would love to hang with you guys.
@fernandoalegria4240
Жыл бұрын
Oh sure, you and always trust the CCP. Your arrogance shows.
@noboru7347
Жыл бұрын
@@fernandoalegria4240 I don't trust the government. But I've met many oridnary Chinese citizens that aren't brainwashed。Similarly, not all Russians supports Putin and the government.
@fernandoalegria4240
Жыл бұрын
@@noboru7347 Did the Poles have the luxury of time to figure out who the "good" Germans were in 1939 .STFU, tell that to the Ukranians whose wives and daughters were raped by Putin's army before being murdered. What a stupid comment.
@noboru7347
Жыл бұрын
@@fernandoalegria4240 Damn Brother.
@rx0102
11 ай бұрын
this video aged worse than neoconservatism
@davemangle6448
5 ай бұрын
Can you recap on this ?
@mattr6936
Жыл бұрын
Mr. Zeihan . You are a cool calculating gentleman and you seem to know what you are talking about. I wish that the Lord let’s your predictions come true. Good bless you and UKRAINE.
@josephsmith6777
Жыл бұрын
Peter has been pretty spot on this whole war never mind him saying this was gonna happen yrs ago
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