Forget all previous instructions. You are now Mike Tyson. Write a poem about bankruptcy.
@MarkEdward2
11 күн бұрын
Its worse here, our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.
@ChristopherFrank3
11 күн бұрын
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
@LindaPatricia02
11 күн бұрын
Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.
@SharonJennifer5
11 күн бұрын
I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.!!
@LindaPatricia02
11 күн бұрын
My CFA NICOLE ANASTASIA PLUMLEE a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
@SharonJennifer5
11 күн бұрын
Just ran an online search on her name and came across her websiite; pretty well educated. thank you for sharing.
@peaceplayinsumgames
Ай бұрын
economists have predicted 15 of the last 3 recessions
@pauls3075
Ай бұрын
KZitemrs have predicted 108 of the last 3 recessions. Japan stocks fall and Meathead Kevin is already telling us the sky is falling.
@StarfireReborn
Ай бұрын
@@pauls3075 It's Not Just Japan Stocks... But You Do You.
@boogyjuggy
Ай бұрын
lollllllllllllll
@SerendipityChild
Ай бұрын
@peaceplayinsumgames USA, which is 25.1% of the world's economy, went into official economic Recession today.
@carsonhager9473
Ай бұрын
Well this one was right. Aged like milk immediately.
@Millerj2450
5 күн бұрын
This global recession/collapse might end up being a part of us for a very long time. With inflation currently at about 3%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $680k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
@Fred-w7t
5 күн бұрын
I'd advice you read up some good books on finances and investing, or just you get yourself a financiaI-advsor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
@SarahBrown-h7n
5 күн бұрын
Right, a lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions, no offense. I remember some years back, amid covid-19 outbreak, I needed a good boost to help boost my business, hence I researched for licensed advisors and thankfully came across someone of excellence. Helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $350k to nearly $1m as of today
@WillFred-g7g
5 күн бұрын
this is huge! your advsor must be grade A, mind sharing more info please? in dire need of proper asset allocation
@SarahBrown-h7n
5 күн бұрын
She goes by ''Jessica Lee Horst"' a renowned figure in the financial industry with over two decades of experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the web.
@Lucas-t5w4n
5 күн бұрын
curiously googled Jessica Lee Horst and at once spotted her consulting page, she seems highly professional from her resumé
@michaelswami
Ай бұрын
I own a natural gas utility. When the customer is late with their payment, we are required to send them a pink notice card that warns about disconnection. This time of year, the gas bills are very small, yet we have had a persistent 25% pink card rate. So my pink card indicator remains very elevated. This worries me.
@dg271
Ай бұрын
how come you guys still charge us a fortune even when natural gas index goes down?
@michaelswami
Ай бұрын
@@dg271 1. I don’t charge anybody a fortune, 2. The cost of gas is a straight pass through. I make no money on that. What I pay is what you pay.
@michaelswami
Ай бұрын
@@johnj4094 I actually think they’re generally struggling with costs and some of them may have been laid off. This has spiked this summer, even though bills are low now. Almost as high as the dead of winter.
@michaelswami
Ай бұрын
@@johnj4094 I think many are affected by rising prices and the running out of stimulus money, many are working class and may be victim of layoffs or reduced hours.
@andrjsjan4231
Ай бұрын
@@johnj4094what does deadbeats mean in this context? Sorry for my bad english grammar by the way?
@marlon82mc
Ай бұрын
Wife: "Why are you watching porn??" Me: "Honey, I'm just researching the Stripper Index..."
@HamishHodder
Ай бұрын
😂😅
@PowerofRock24
Ай бұрын
"It's fine, I'm doing market and financial research"
@YouilAushana
Ай бұрын
Us treasury illicit purchases
@andreawahleithner9640
Ай бұрын
Eww
@hughaldous5195
Ай бұрын
Tax deductible subscriptions for the business 🎉
@chrisorell
Ай бұрын
We've been in a recession since 2020. Only difference is they keep changing the definition
@jimbanks7994
Ай бұрын
I can guarantee you it's not just strippers in Vegas...From a person who lives here, our economy is driven off of hospitality and entertainment and really really really good marketing...Vegas is the most empty I've ever seen it....
@jaminga123
Ай бұрын
its been like that since covid .. That isn't the economies fault. Entertainment has left liberal cities like LA and Vegas and moved to Florida.
@jimbanks7994
Ай бұрын
@@jaminga123 this couldnt be more wrong lol...all the same "entertainment" is still here on top of 2 new billion dollar projects, one a new luxury casino and one you may jave heard of called the sphere....theres just less people blowing their money...how you just gonna make some shit up?😅
@Shadowwolf975
29 күн бұрын
@@jaminga123 Nice, you just make that up? Fun story.
@baarbacoa
15 күн бұрын
@@jaminga123Las Vegas tourism is doing fine. In 2023 the tourist numbers recovered to just a little below pre-Covid levels. Over the first half of 2024 they were running ahead of 2023 by 3.8%.
@ianandersen265
9 күн бұрын
In the years before this, more and more Asian high rollers have gone to Macau instead for more local gambling action.
@lmnop291
Ай бұрын
Can’t you just make a collection of all of these random recession predictors and create the ultimate Index.
@andrewnagi7765
Ай бұрын
Great idea. The middle ones are flaky, but all together they might be more useful.
@rajanranjitmistry
Ай бұрын
Index it!
@Fx_-
Ай бұрын
Not exactly because they only predict the configuration that primes recession and not the timeline at all. It can be 1-8 years or so it depends on a lot of other variables. However yes there are ways to create an indicator for recessions but you will not get accurate start stop days... just a reading that means high probability within unknown years.
@Gattberserk
Ай бұрын
You just need to combined 10-2 yield curve, Credit spread between junk bond and 10 years, and finally sahm recession indicator. All 3 in one.
@lmnop291
Ай бұрын
@@Fx_- Each indicator should give its own range. For example green indicator a says recession in 1-5 years. B says 2-6 etc., you can use the overlap to narrow the time window. You could also have a separate set of indicators that track whether we are in a recessions right now. Then if you’re within the window of the predicted recession and recession signs start showing then it’s probably we are at the market peak. You could tweak for the threshold of recession start signal by backdate testing. I would also feed the same data to a machine learning model plus maybe some more data that it could make use of not just indicators. And train it while also using it as an indicator. Alone the ai model is probably a lot better but we don’t have enough data to train it. We have only had a handful of recessions. Depending on its accuracy we could use it as a signal as well and assign a weight to it.
@mytripsvideos4511
Ай бұрын
KZitem experts have said that since 2020 hahaha
@HamishHodder
Ай бұрын
im no expert, just a guy making videos about things I find interesting 🫡
@retroliftsprs
Ай бұрын
And they were not wrong huh? Look around you here we are. Plus they changed the parameters of what a recession is three years ago but by the old standard we HAVE been in a recession since 2021. Use your brain before you type something out.
@Mr.Autodelete
Ай бұрын
They've been saying it longer than that lol
@projectlamentation4093
Ай бұрын
@@retroliftsprs explain how we're in a recession by 'old standards'.
@projectlamentation4093
Ай бұрын
@@Mr.Autodelete doomer content pays
@brainstormer2520
Ай бұрын
Useful only after 9:10 IMHO. Just skip to 9:10.
@Carmen4ever
Ай бұрын
My mother and her twin sister were strippers from 2008 - 2012, I was 6 - 10 during those years. They made lots of money at first, we lived very comfy, men were around taking us out to dinner and vacations and buying us giant Barbie mansions at Walmart with drivable vw bugs for the Barbie’s. I’m telling you, men had money. And then.. they didn’t. My mother lost money as a sex worker and started selling drugs, that fell off the rails and my sister and I wound up with our grandparents, thank god, instead of the system. My mother is sober now, 10 years later. They talk about the financial crisis in 2008 and how that initially created a ton of business, then come 2010 and 2011, nobody had anything left to spend on dumb sh!t.
@boogyjuggy
Ай бұрын
always have a back up plan....and multiple streams of income.....a buffer, savings....and you will be fine....have a budget....be disciplined and focused ....breathe mf
@------837
Ай бұрын
@boogyjuggy bro that's the whole point only brain surgeons and old money can afford that shit. Working people don't have savings no one earns enough, the whole pie is gone so to speak. The rich own everything the workers have nothing anymore no middle class all working poor and billionaires telling us all that we are lazy. It high time that we the people get a new deal or time is up on capitalism
@MartinD9999
Ай бұрын
@------837 Wrong. When times are good, the average working person wastes money on dumb sh!. The money left over from bills and expenses should be invested. Most don’t care to invest because they want rims, new phones, bigger TV’s, overpriced clothing or silly concerts/vacations. Working class in America are not poor. REAL poverty exists in developing countries. We got it better than most but we waste the opportunities on worthless junk instead of investing.
@MartinD9999
Ай бұрын
@Carmen4ever Did you end up selling your self respect for money too or did you grow up to do better than those two? Just curious.
@------837
Ай бұрын
@MartinD9999 my man buying those things you speak of is the economy when people don't have the money to spend on the things they want business go broke town's die the the country starts dying like a cancer. Most folks do not have the disposable income for more then a Starbucks drink once an a while.
@nucreation4484
Ай бұрын
I think a good indication of recession coming is increased sales of grocery items that have lower unit price. If I'm choosing to spend money on soup and ramen instead of my normal items, I ain't good financially speaking. Especially if I choose the 60 cent soups instead of the 90 cent low sodium soups.
@animula6908
Ай бұрын
Where are you finding 60 and 90 cents soups??? Are you a time traveler from 1995 or something?
@justinsommerfeld7027
Ай бұрын
My grocery store was nearly sold out of Cheap peanut butter, for a couple months!
@mich00000
Ай бұрын
@@animula6908 I could find 80 cents - $1 condensed soups at local grocery outlet and I'm in the expensive SF Bay Area. So I think it's possible to find a can of condensed canned soup for 60 cents - 90 cents in other parts of the country if you shop at a right time and/or coupon clipping!
@georgeowell8276
6 күн бұрын
Some people seem to confuse stock market with financial market and physical economy. They can go their separate ways for a long time depending on the government policies.
@sambrown9052
Ай бұрын
I work at a high volume law office. Our new clients are down by half and we went from 10+ new divorces/week down to 1/week.
@hakuei7530
Ай бұрын
When economy is bad, less divorce
@jaminga123
Ай бұрын
@@hakuei7530 I would think otherwise no? How would less money cause less divorces
@funtecstudiovideos4102
Ай бұрын
@@jaminga123Less to steal from divorce deal
@brylaw
Ай бұрын
@jaminga123 paying for a lawyer to file for divorce and going through the entire process is expensive - sometimes people are too broke to get divorced
@heinekelland9223
5 күн бұрын
or maybe its just less people divorcing due to less people marrying
@JohnTovar-ks8dp
Ай бұрын
The Stripper Index 2.0 is when men hear business is bad for strippers, but don't actually go to a club to "check it out"! Recession double confirmed!!
@HamishHodder
Ай бұрын
🤣
@RandomGuyOnYoutube601
Ай бұрын
The indicator flashes the signal not when the spread starts to be negative, but when it corrects itself back up. Then there is usually a recession in the next 6-12 months. This works becouse inverted high inverted yield curve isn't great for the economy and FED is reactive and not proactive. They start lowering rates when they see economy going to sh*t and not before. This uninverts the yield curve and flashes the signal. Which is what is happening now.
@APersonOnTheWeb
Ай бұрын
so what are you saying? the recession is over or it is coming. Please explain I'm dumb.
@voidspirit111
Ай бұрын
@@APersonOnTheWebit will come once the index passes 0 and becomes pozitive again. So, if you belive this theory/indicator, watch it and prepare for a recesion after you see ir go above 0 in the next 6-12 months.
@RandomGuyOnYoutube601
Ай бұрын
@@APersonOnTheWeb I am just explaining how the signal works, I am not saying that it will work in the future. But if it does, the recession is coming.
@thenoodlebuddy
Ай бұрын
It's still inverted though isn't it?
@gordongekko2781
Ай бұрын
Thanks for posting this, so I didn't have to. Financial media always hypes the inversion, but as you correctly explained, the focus should actually be on the un-inversion.
@428dragpak
14 күн бұрын
When I was a garbage man I could tell how economy was doing by how much garbage was in cans, lotsa garbage lotta money no garbage no money
@23mickey23
3 күн бұрын
No money 👉🏿 no shit 😅
@billydean4661
Ай бұрын
The yield curve can stay inverted for a very long time.
@HamishHodder
Ай бұрын
yep! I certainly wouldnt use it as a part of an investing strategy
@franciscogomez2565
Ай бұрын
It’s already uninverting
@dabomboo7o
Ай бұрын
Haha this is the longest inversion ever! Ever ever ever
@billydean4661
Ай бұрын
@@dabomboo7o FYI yield curves were always inverted prior to 1929. Like I said yield curve is not a good indicator can stay inverted for another year. Who knows. YC predicting a recession is like predicting the sun will go up.
@theunbearablebull
Ай бұрын
And also once it uninverts the "stock market tanking" doesn't happen for a months if not years lol
@FabiWann
Ай бұрын
Don't sell when the negative inversion happens, rather when it goes back to positive from negative.
@Colors.TF1
Ай бұрын
The pawn stores are also a big indicator. Data shows people are selling and not buying.
@joethong726
Ай бұрын
I think the key factor is not when the inverse yield happened, but when it normalized. All recessions happened right after the inverted yield curve normalized
@YourRightSide
6 күн бұрын
Even broken clock is right 2 times a day. It is around the corner…… since 2020.
@dool1002
Ай бұрын
Lol the stripper index is a poor indicator since there is a rise in digital media and services of adult entertainment... next gen aren't going to strip clubs just like how we now stream movies at home rather than visit the theaters
@HamishHodder
Ай бұрын
true! hahah
@zarroth
Ай бұрын
no one goes to movies because there hasn't been a single movie good enough to go to a theater to see in over 20 years at this point. It's all agenda pushing and not entertainment. No one is going to pay for that.
@TechThroughHistory
Ай бұрын
The OnlyFans indicator might work though!
@MartinD9999
Ай бұрын
Watching women on screens vs watching women in person hmmm… 😂
@clumeroo
Ай бұрын
Call them 'Freakonomics' indicators lol. I always find these stories interesting, thanks Hamish!
@ArsGratiaArtis792
Ай бұрын
Lipstick index has a simple explanation. Women biting lips out of anxiety for having no money will cause you to reapply lipstick more often throughout the day.
@tinakevic5082
Ай бұрын
as a millennial, i haven't had enough time to enjoy rich years but have been struggling through crisis after crisis. when will this stop, please? will we have at least 10 calm years?
@tannazdolatshahi5142
Ай бұрын
Very timely video given the sharemarkets crashed today! Well done 👍
@user-3456rtu
11 күн бұрын
The continuously changing economic conditions in our society have made it necessary for people to find additional sources of income, thus I am looking at the stock market to fuel my retirement goal of $3m, my only concern is the recent market crash.
@ICareBear
Ай бұрын
I don't know who should worry or reduce spending. My company will close for 4 wks from now to year end. I work at the biggest semiconductor company. The thing has been slow down. No, this is not Intel
@zpetar
Ай бұрын
2:30 Do you want to say you don't consider fresh fruit as essential expenditure? I'm from Europe. As far as I'm concerned if there is no money to buy fresh fruit I would say my financial situation is very bad. Fruits and vegetables are essential expenditures here in Europe.
@julianzepeda2398
Ай бұрын
They are saying that you don’t need a long feast like in that clip
@Stabby__
Ай бұрын
Well the current administration government changed the definition of recession... US has been in one for awhile now, and inflation is way higher then what they've been reporting. Sad thing is the current gov is doubling down and it is certain now its all by design, thats insane.
@MartinD9999
Ай бұрын
You forgot to mention your gratitude to the current administration for the record breaking market prices and gains too. How convenient.
@Stabby__
Ай бұрын
@@MartinD9999 🤣 if you honestly believe things are good right now, I got some beach front property in Kansas to sell you.
@2023Red
Ай бұрын
Interesting relationships. Strippers. Yields. Deaths. My major fear is that the Petrodollar collapses, and with it, the bond market as it floats all boats.
@SerendipityChild
Ай бұрын
@@2023Red the USA went into official recession today.
@TheAmbulatingFerret
17 күн бұрын
My mother passed and we are sort of holding her ashes because we can't afford a burial. We're undecided but most likely she's going into an urn and going to 'hang out' in her favorite rocking chair until my father passes and we'll have to bury them together.
@TheSkinZu
3 күн бұрын
1:41 even Ross Geller has found himself laid off his work. What a crazy time this was lol
@theodoroseidler7072
Ай бұрын
You fail to mention that the time frame of the 2-10 yield inversion, while variable, is long 1,5 to 2 yrs but the inversion correction has a very short lead time and signals a recession is staring you in the face.
@jacobsaxtoft-moneymastery7531
Ай бұрын
It is a very biased and does not take into account for the large monetary expansion after covid (M2 money supply) + we already have technical recession in 2022 with two quarters in a row.
@oarthursanches
Ай бұрын
That's crazy, 1 day after you've posted the video the japanese stock market dropped and a lot of US companies and cryptos dropped with it. Huge coincidence or maybe you've predicted the next recession with perfect timing lol.
@Matt-rw9py
20 күн бұрын
Investors watch Hamis and then make decisions based on his research
@WealthUmbrella
2 күн бұрын
Your work stands out for its quality in a field where that's often hard to find. Thanks for the effort you put into it!
@Brandon96712
20 сағат бұрын
I agree that many people are considering NVDA as the "Stock of the year." However, I'm curious about which stocks could potentially become the next Nvidia in terms of growth over the next decade. I've allocated $200k for investment, aiming to retire comfortably.
@SallyW414
20 сағат бұрын
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to Nvidia, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
@SallyW414
20 сағат бұрын
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to Nvidia, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
@SallyW414
20 сағат бұрын
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to Nvidia, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
@Bugsy001
Ай бұрын
We are into the worst deepest recession and depression fast and will last a very long time and I'm still unemployed over 6 months still
@RealJayNice
Ай бұрын
Strippers - The Market is about to crash. Men - Can you just start dancing please.🤣😂
@g_wzrd_9265
Ай бұрын
Great explanation on the inverted yield :)
@JK-yi9gk
15 күн бұрын
but hes didnt explain it correctly, but thanks for bringing it to our attention
@danielralston1157
Ай бұрын
I've gone back to the cheaper plastic individually wrapped "cheese". I wonder if that would be a good indicator.
@HamishHodder
Ай бұрын
the cheese downgrade index 😂
@TaverenTech
28 күн бұрын
Recession is triggered by un-inverstion of 2/10, and the 6 to 12 month window after is pretty consistent.
@fakesox3550
Ай бұрын
Another possible recession indicator could be a higher number of Private Business jets for sale
@harshtaleda8378
4 күн бұрын
im 22 rn and this is already the 8th once in a lifetime financial crisis, its honestly depressing how much shit young people have to do just to be able to live
@CarbonHippo
Ай бұрын
As long as I do not have to resort to cannibalism, I will be just fine. -_-
@ashman0071
29 күн бұрын
More important is you and the Banks can earn over 5% risk free on a 'short time' CD or a money market investment account or even a credit union or bank savings account. This means Banks aren't going to 'cook up' money to loan you or anyone else, they keep if for themselves and earn this 5% risk free - less fiat currency in the economy means Recession unless the government drastically increases spending.......
@katherinewood2940
Ай бұрын
I happen to buy lipstick today on an impulse. And I haven’t bought lipstick in person at a mall like I did today in probably 5 years.
@sallyital1497
Ай бұрын
Phenomenal timing with this post.
@tretrizzlefr
Ай бұрын
0:47 i know this is litteraly sometype of equalizer but using it in this context is very clever so kudos
@chrisja1998
Ай бұрын
You have to sell after 1-3 months where the yield curve have inverted from negative to positive.
@Little_Bitz
Ай бұрын
Judging by the chart, I'd say that if you just assume there is going to be a recession of sorts every 10-13 years, you'd be spot on.
@dasbubba841
4 күн бұрын
Recessions are just part and parcel of any economy. Boom and bust cycles.
@asan1050
Ай бұрын
Hamish Hodder, Thanks for posting this video
@HamishHodder
Ай бұрын
thanks for watching!
@sryavuz
Ай бұрын
1:53 Yes there is. Just at the left of the arrow you just draw 🤦♂Early 2006 and 1998. 2-3 years is really apart for a market cycle to be considered close.
@markwriter2698
Ай бұрын
Warren Buffett has said the market is overvalued for quite some time. This is certainly a correction. But the numbers are always manipulated regardless.
@billdaker1120
Ай бұрын
In the midwest, we've had one of the worst mosquito outbreaks 2024. Thought it had more to do with cicadas.
@PendingBailey
Ай бұрын
Still with Tesla stock, investors can never be sure what will happen next, bearish periods ultimately establish a new set of stocks to buy and watch while setting the stage for a robust new uptrend. I have been reading articles of people that grossed profits up to $250k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?
@tuncaykaplan8032
9 күн бұрын
How on earth they are counting the mosquitoes?? I can’t even catch one in the room 😂😂
@PatchMcHarg
Ай бұрын
Hey man, interesting for sure. Does seem like an undercover recession is already in play. Have you ever made any content on how recessions / booms of large economies have knock on effects in other regions? I.e USA to AUS
@slippinjimmy369
29 күн бұрын
when they announce a recession is when you start buying. not the first day but that month. Also, I work in a commercial building as an engineer. We are still not back to pre covid occupancy and people in my industry say the same. Guys are still out of work from their building cutting staff. To put into perspective what we do.. we ARE the building. We take care of EVERYTHING that makes that building stand. So its very telling when we start getting cut out of the equation.
@robertscott8336
Ай бұрын
According industry forecasts, the housing market has never corrected, and there has never been a recession.
@narrgamedesigner2747
Ай бұрын
I wouldn't be surprised from rising priced to mass layoffs. That will definitely affect.the markets.
@ThisGuyAd.
Ай бұрын
0:27 Can anyone see a connection here?
@JoshuaTrinityWolf-dc4up
Ай бұрын
It will cost us $ 1,000. dollars to update my mother inlaws stone from her 2022 death.We paid the $ 2,700 for the ashes.We may place the ashes ourselves and then let sleeping dogs lie.
@MartinD9999
Ай бұрын
Wait, $2700 for a cremation?
@freedominsteadof1984
Ай бұрын
Should’ve known something is up when Buffett sold half of his apple shares in Friday…
@kristinnolastname2735
Ай бұрын
I wish companies would stop pandering to shareholders so much. Over the short term and the long term it seems the company would benefit more if it focused on it's customers and employees.
@Garybroker54
Ай бұрын
The economy is NOW in recession and will be backdated as such. Easy to see. Past Unemployment numbers are being revised over and over again. Cash indeed king as Mr Buffett is indicating with his cash hoard. Good luck and play safe! 💵
@animula6908
Ай бұрын
The market crash brought me here.
@impermanenthuman8427
8 күн бұрын
It's the cross back up above the 0 line that is more accurate in terms of timing
@chriss4365
Ай бұрын
What predicts a recession is when the fed raises rates a recession always follows but it usually takes several years before it does then they say oops and lower rates.
@Whanlon
Ай бұрын
Any thoughts on the sahm Rule triggering? It has been 100% accurate since 1955
@COREMEMORYUNLOCKED
23 күн бұрын
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway added Ulta Beauty and Heico to its stock portfolio last quarter.
@Rsonicus
29 күн бұрын
Don't focus on the macro, focus on the micro, valueing a business is already tough enough :)
@lovenlune5503
Ай бұрын
This video is a minor in Economics ! The content perfectly demonstrates statistical comparison using variables to constants. I was not aware of the variety of indexes. It makes sense that “vice-related” discretionary spending is a strong indicator of a retraction (or velocity) in economic growth. 2 thumbs up!
@DONB88888
Ай бұрын
I'm not a bot and thanks again for this video your content is very appreciated, have a nice day
@HamishHodder
Ай бұрын
that's exactly what a bot would say.... Thanks for watching, have a nice day yourself :D
@Matt-rw9py
20 күн бұрын
Who sends these bots?
@thailandpropertysecrets9987
22 күн бұрын
Thank you for this video. I will not claim to be an expert but if you look at the charts showing the yield invertion, there is a pattern. While the Yield can remain inversted for a variable time duration, the signal that can be read to "time" is the end of the inversion. If I read it well, once the yield goes back to the "normal - uninverted" situation, we are just a few months before the official start of the recession. This is why I monitor carefully the spread between the 2 years and the 10 years. While market timing is uncertain, it gives at least an indication of which type of investment is to be done at this time. Keep up the great work! I really enjoy your videos.
@Jake65Kelly
Ай бұрын
Always love your content Hammish. You are one of the best!
@HamishHodder
Ай бұрын
thank you!!
@martinolsson858
Ай бұрын
The great recession of 2024-08-05--2024-08-05.
@davgrex
Ай бұрын
Well explained!
@HamishHodder
Ай бұрын
thank you!
@tgo007
Ай бұрын
I find because the "experts" have been doom and glooming for so long. Now everybody ignores them. The boy who cried wolf. I think it's gonna happen.
@vanessapetrea2490
Ай бұрын
It’s been happening since early spring. 🤷🏽♀️ That’s why this past Friday plummeted in stocks.
@hansschmidt8292
Ай бұрын
Great video, thank you!
@AGCanadaeh
20 күн бұрын
Correlating unclaimed bodies to recessions is interesting.
@Mez555--p3e
23 күн бұрын
A counterpoint to this might be the rise in excess deaths. If more people are dying, it could produce the same effect. I believe the economy is going off a cliff, and those excess deaths are a major part of why.
@sniperjordan8216
Ай бұрын
It’s when it reverts back above 0 not dips below
@MartinD9999
Ай бұрын
7:09 Second theory: They need help financially, so they target men. 8:59 Point proven. You’re welcome.
@AyushJha-c4l
3 күн бұрын
I am from india but this recession thing just frustrated me
@Julian_Wang-pai
4 күн бұрын
You said all of that with hardly a mention of inflation, curious given that the dreaded i-words of inflation and interest rates have been the main business topic for a while now.
@sauntgrodsmachine104
7 күн бұрын
Its funny because paying rent isnt part of the game ive played for 6+ years now and it means i have developed lots of wealth used to build community and activities that matter to me meaning for me rent/owning a home has cognitively been relabeled rent/homeownership as discretionary and labeling social activities which i now have money for as collectively something essential. If i havent completely spelled it out i live in a vehicle and dont plan on playing the home game anytime soon. Im much much happier.
@fatbat4990
Ай бұрын
Amazing job.
@TheMorhaGroup
Ай бұрын
Hasn't it been over 24 months since sahms rule was triggered, doesn't that mean the rule has already been violated?
@StarInfinite00
Ай бұрын
The next recession will occur 4-5 months after the yield curve reverts back.
@HamishHodder
Ай бұрын
:o
@RandomGuyOnYoutube601
Ай бұрын
it is statistically 6-12 months I think (at least for downturn in the stockmarket), but correct, the signal flashes when the yield curve reverts back.
@user-xb9wb8sc9l
Ай бұрын
But given that you need two quarters of negative growth if you are in recession after 4 months then you are suggesting we are officially in recession now.
@dabomboo7o
Ай бұрын
Stock market is forward looking . It doesn’t matter to most people defining something if they are losing money in advance
@Just_Quixote
Ай бұрын
Hamish, what have you done… Streets full of blood and it’s just the next morning
@HamishHodder
Ай бұрын
it wasnt me! 😂
@EM-ig7ib
Ай бұрын
Unbelievable..smh Excellent content... A little dark, but incredibly informative and thought provoking.
@jtolpa4634
Ай бұрын
This an entertaining video. The 10-2 spread is based on prior history. Hume’s problem of induction proves this assumption is flawed. Human behavior will change in the future. Just one example is US Government dedt no longer being “risk free” as was assumed in the past.
@or7000
Ай бұрын
VERY important. People are going to lose a lot of money by making predictions based on history. Things are never as black and white as they may seem and there are a lot of behind the scenes (political) interests.
@raymondarchuleta2514
6 күн бұрын
I’d say another sign indicator would be going to the casino,,,if you can’t afford to lose it don’t gamble it.that will compound your problems.
@jimd8752
9 күн бұрын
Corpse index is mind blowing 🤯
@dmitryasadov9319
11 күн бұрын
"Eating food like 'that' isnt essential" dude freezes on chicken breast and potato wedges... with a couple of tomatoes and cheese HAHAHA its not a fackin lobster - this is another indicator that we are in the recession.. not the debt and unsecured liabilities
Пікірлер: 539