Here's the link to the Lichtman prediction: www.nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opinion/allan-lichtman-trump-harris-prediction.html. And make sure to check out my DAILY politics newsletter here: chriscillizza.substack.com.
@MichaelSidneyTimpson
10 күн бұрын
He has a methodology on how the keys work, your the one being subjective, if you understand the deep factors, you will see how he does it objectively,
@spudwas
10 күн бұрын
The link requires you to purchase a subscription. Unless you're a subscriber to the New York Times, forget it.
@twang5
10 күн бұрын
I hate to agree with Trump but he was so right about you Chris
@spudwas
10 күн бұрын
The free link is on KZitem.
@ymeynot0405
10 күн бұрын
@Chriscillizza The Charisma is a reach across party lines Charisma. Trump doesn't have that. He might have had that in 2016, before people knew who he was in office. But, he has gotten older and less Charismatic.
@griffredarmy
10 күн бұрын
Lichtman has said he doesn't give Trump the charisma key because even though his base loves him, he doesn't ever break above 50% support. For him a charismatic candidate is someone like Obama or Regan who has broad appeal across parties.
@zebbie09
10 күн бұрын
I agree with him there…. I think Kamala has far more charisma than I thought she would….maybe not enough for the key, but she has charisma for a broader audience.
@maximefougere4831
10 күн бұрын
I totally agree. I just made the same point about charisma.
@bartstewart8644
10 күн бұрын
Donald Trump also doesn't deserve the charisma key because of how he has declined mentally since 2016. He's a mess. His mind is gone.
@BabyMaharaja0
10 күн бұрын
There is another reason why his predictions are not serious. It's all wishful thinking and rooting for Harris instead of a logical prediction
@ITube4RealFun
10 күн бұрын
Can clowns have charisma?
@panther7739
10 күн бұрын
Here's a new key for Allan Lichtman's model: Is the challenger a convicted felon?
@h.f.4095
10 күн бұрын
Or.. Or a new key could be if the incumbent needs an emotional support "stolen valor" candidate to complete an interview.
@bobbun9630
10 күн бұрын
That would be another checkbox in Harris's favor, but a good reason for it not to be a key (I actually think the keys are fluff, by the way), is that keys should be something relevant to most election cycles. Having a convicted felon as a major party candidate is unprecedented, and likely always will be, since having such candidates all the time probably means democratic governance has failed.
@steveschuman4738
10 күн бұрын
@@h.f.4095 oh please...
@Marcosss-7-years-ago
10 күн бұрын
@@h.f.4095such a stretch😂
@h.f.4095
10 күн бұрын
@@steveschuman4738 I'm guessing you didn't like my key suggestion?
@daveblodgett2438
10 күн бұрын
My concern is not Kamala winning, but Maga ready, willing, able and pre-prepared to throw buckets of sand and gravel into the gears of our electoral system. Expect Maga BS no matter what folks.
@kdmdlo
10 күн бұрын
Buckle up ... because that's exactly what they plan on doing.
@Peeved100
10 күн бұрын
Everyone expects exactly that. After eight years, we know them very well.
@robertlouis.8826
10 күн бұрын
OMG....
@luvzdogz
10 күн бұрын
💯
@ReallyBadJuJu
10 күн бұрын
The bigger the margin by which Trump loses, the harder it will be for him to get any traction. Get out and vote.
@prussianblueppt
10 күн бұрын
He also predicted Trump in 2016, when no one else predicted he would win.
@realdaybreaker8013
6 күн бұрын
based on his keys? No way... Trump doest tick majority of the keys back in 2016
@stuffyouotterlistento1461
6 күн бұрын
I don't think anybody gets credit for predicting a Trump win. Because of how close the election was (just shifting one half of a percent of the vote in just three states from Trump to Clinton would've given her the victory), incidental factors that could not have been reliably predicted could've shifted it one way or the other. There's every reason to believe that James Comey reopening the investigation into Clinton could've changed the outcome of the election, and so unless that specific event was anticipated, somebody predicting a Trump win might've gotten it right just because they got lucky. The correct prediction, in my opinion, would've been "too close to tell".
@lazlomattachine8334
10 күн бұрын
Mr Lichtman would’ve been 10/10 if the 2000 election hadn’t been decided by the Supreme Court instead of the actual votes.
@MajLeader
9 күн бұрын
Bingo!
@kal330pilot
10 күн бұрын
Actually, 10 out of 10 ! It's a fact
@JahNgomba-ir2zi
10 күн бұрын
Nope , 8/10 to be realistic. In 2016 he predicted Trump to win the popular vote
@kal330pilot
10 күн бұрын
@@JahNgomba-ir2zi wrong again maga. Professor always gets it right.
@JahNgomba-ir2zi
10 күн бұрын
@@kal330pilot oh really ? In 1992 he turned the short term economy key false , even thought the recession had ended a year prior and the economy was growing, why so? Because there was polls in which the majority of Americans believed that economy was still bad (we could a parallel with today). If he respected his own rules ., Bush would have won a second term (only 5 keys false ) by his own system so that’s 9/10. Let’s give the benefit of the doubt for 2000 because he did say that the system predicted the popular vote. But that doesn’t explain why he predicted Trump in 2016 even though he lost the popular vote. In 2020 he said that he “changed the system after 2000 too predicted the actual winner “ source : but the keys haven’t changed one bit , it’s the same criteria and he hasn’t explain what exactly he has changed so he was probably just saving face. So 8/10
@JahNgomba-ir2zi
10 күн бұрын
@@kal330pilot he turned the short economy key false even though there was no recession just because most people thought that the economy was still bad . So Vibe-economics >> “objective real data” I guess. He if didn’t do that , Bush would have won so 9/10 . Let’s give the benefit of the doubt for the 2000 election because he said that Keys predicted the popular votes Winner but that doesn’t explain why Trump won in 2016. In a video with the New York Times in 2020 he explained that he changed the system to predict the actual winner but the system has been the same since 1984 , with the same criteria and he hasn’t explained it( he was trying to save face ) so yeah 8/10
@MarkSav1
9 күн бұрын
@@JahNgomba-ir2ziNo he predicted Trump, on video. In 2000 tens of thousands of mostly African American ballots in split Florida were thrown in the garbage, and SC stopped the recount, handing it to Bush against voter will.
@nathanjamesbaker
10 күн бұрын
Actually, it was 10 of 10. Gore did win, but for the Supreme Court blocking his victory.
@bobbun9630
10 күн бұрын
As you've stated, the claim is unprovable, as we don't know what the final count would have been in Florida had SCOTUS not stopped the counting. On the more general point of winning the popular vote and losing the election due to the electoral college, you would still end up with 9/10, because on that basis Hillary should have gotten the win in 2016.
@OKA4LIVE
10 күн бұрын
Well, then he predicted 2016 wrong. Trump lost the popular vote.
@pachangaresorts
9 күн бұрын
Absolutely. He is totally wrong on Gore-Bush. Lichtman has imperial scientific data that Gore won. Bush won because the election was stolen. You could say the Supreme Court won because they stopped the Florida recount when Bush was ahead by only 537 votes. A majority of black male ballots were also tossed.
@pakantot3055
10 күн бұрын
Chris you should now write an apology letter to Allan once Harris wins the election.
@chesterhaduca7029
10 күн бұрын
9/10. 😂 Even if it’s perfect, prediction is a prediction. It’s a guess.
@shaykh.Mike.Z
10 күн бұрын
i will save this video😂😂😂😂
@Priyanka.Aarya77
9 күн бұрын
@@chesterhaduca7029 You’re wrong. You clearly didn’t listen to his reaction to Gore “losing.” Gore did win. This Supreme Court handed it to Bush. That’s NOT a win. This is why Allan says he was right on Gore/Bush too.
@chesterhaduca7029
9 күн бұрын
@@Priyanka.Aarya77 nope. 9/10 is his record. A miss is a miss regardless.
@BigMamaDaveX
10 күн бұрын
Let's hope that Lichtman is right. 🙏 To make sure, VOTE 💙!
@emillion4470
10 күн бұрын
VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! Vote like your lives depended on it. Vote like your children's lives depended on it....and it does!
@AJeziorski1967
10 күн бұрын
I don't understand why some people insist that Trump is "charismatic". Charisma's supposed to be an attractive quality, and while Trump does attract a certain proportion of the population, he violently repels others. Charismatic people are supposed to have the ability to win people over - Trump shuts them out unless they're already on his side. I've read that people who think about such things for a living define charisma as a blend of "power, presence and warmth". Well, Trump has the first one sewn up, the second is arguable (some are impressed by his presence, others repulsed by it), but the third is a flat, inarguable "no". Trump is cruel, vindictive, lacks empathy, only makes jokes that are mean at other people's expense ... and never, ever laughs. So I'd say it's pretty clear that whatever it is Trump has, it is not charisma.
@commonsense3921
10 күн бұрын
Exactly, It’s like they equate popularity as charisma.
@AtheistAndMythology
10 күн бұрын
And trumps not popular enough to get the popular vote
@jacquelinebrown5900
10 күн бұрын
Trump is the least charismatic, most repulsive person I've ever heard about.
@memyself7956
10 күн бұрын
trump is not charismatic. I find nothing likable or endearing about him. Maybe he has dark charisma being he's evil.
@trenttoy4238
10 күн бұрын
Opinionated statements are fun but I bet there is millions that would disagree with you. When it comes to the mathematical ratio of people that agree versus disagreeing, well I disagree with you,so just myself alone kind of makes your Opinionated statement null.
@Trac3ri
10 күн бұрын
This guy is so full of himself.. he said it would be bad for the democrats to replace Biden..
@bojan80
10 күн бұрын
Yes because of incumbent key ,but since Democrats all came behind Kamala , that problem is resolved party is united
@Peeved100
10 күн бұрын
I'm not sure I'm impressed. He warned that replacing Biden as the candidate would be a big mistake. It hasn't been. And now he predicts the new candidate will win. We'd still be stuck with Biden if we'd listened to him. But I am *cautiously* optimistic Harris will win.
@joergpranger
10 күн бұрын
He underlined his point good arguments. He always argues with his keys. Just look, if Biden stepped down (which he obviously did) and not immediately endorsed Kamala Harris (his VP, when he should have endorsed someone then her, because she is his VP), then there would be a massive brawl with all potential democrats who wanted to be his successor. And all of this would turn key 3 (when I am counting correctly) false, because there would be a primary contest for the candidacy of the Dems. And just turning this key would predict, according to his keys, the win of Donald Trump. Given that the foreign success and failure keys would not change. And they are looking pretty much not in favor of the Dems right now. So even Lichtmans Keys suggest a very close race. I think only a big social unrest can flip the race in favor of Trump, otherwise it will be a Harris win.
@nehukybis
10 күн бұрын
He also predicted Republicans in congress would eagerly join Democrats in impeaching Trump, The bit about replacing Biden revealed how much of a crank Lichtman is. He doesn't understand the difference between correlation and causation. You get the incumbency "key" by being a strong candidate. Going with a weak candidate just to get the key makes no sense at all. He followed up by saying Biden should resign the presidency just so the magic key will fall in Harris' hands. He's a nut. The whole "predicting 9 out of 10 elections" claim is also BS by the way.
@harperr2180
10 күн бұрын
Because he doesnt think giving away a key is smart and that gave away the incumbent key.
@walterpierce6061
10 күн бұрын
You're speaking too soon. I think that he was right that President Biden should have not been forced out. Time will tell. I will vote for Kamala Harris but there are many Joe Biden voters especially older white voters who may not vote for Kamala Harris. That's just a fact. I hope that Kamala Harris wins but Joe Biden was polling better than she is now at this same time period in 2020.
@Peeved100
10 күн бұрын
@@walterpierce6061 I am not assuming Harris will win. But I firmly believe Biden would have lost. I guess I am the reverse of you. I was willing to vote for Biden. But I'm much happier voting for Harris. And I believe younger voters would not have turned out for Biden. My husband and I are older white voters. And we have zero regrets about the change. BUT...time will absolutely tell who was right in the end. It was always a gamble either way.
@bruh_hahaha
10 күн бұрын
Get your friends and family out and VOTE everybody! 💙🇺🇸
@SenorJuan2023
10 күн бұрын
Get the RIGHT ones out ..........those voting Kamala.
@Griffanswing626
10 күн бұрын
He actually got 10/10. He explains the 2000 gore election and why it’s should be gore.
@imperialmotoring3789
10 күн бұрын
Bush was a disaster, but Gore would have been worse.
@joergpranger
10 күн бұрын
I agree absolutely!
@BabyMaharaja0
10 күн бұрын
But Gore lost
@samglg
10 күн бұрын
The one time I was wrong, I wasn't!
@brotherandrew3393
10 күн бұрын
There is zero evidence that Gore did win in Florida.
@karimmore2199
10 күн бұрын
To be fair I think Lichtmann gives the charisma key to candidates enjoying a broader appeal than just their base. He says for instance that there were Reagan Democrats, but there are no Trump Democrats.
@mikeincalifornia
10 күн бұрын
There are no Trump Democrats? Uh, what about RFK Jr and Tulsi Gabbard? Seems like there are plenty of Trump Dems. I know that in California there are millions of them. I'm one.
@zipzzo
10 күн бұрын
@@mikeincaliforniathen you aren't a Democrat you're just an independent (and also low information voter)
@jacobnapkins1155
10 күн бұрын
@@mikeincaliforniaRFK ran as an independent
@roberthenry9319
10 күн бұрын
@@mikeincalifornia Very few people who read this comment will believe anything it says. That, obviously, is because it makes no sense whatsoever. Plus, it is absolutely untrue.
@MasterForte
10 күн бұрын
@@mikeincalifornia Though also keep in mind that Liz Chaney has endorsed Harris, as well as 200+ staff members from Bush, McCain, and Romney who have endorsed her as well. And with that, they are both still missing that appeal that would make them charismatic. It's a very high threshold to turn that key.
@cedricnicholson7446
9 күн бұрын
He actually got the 2000 Election right. The Supreme Court gave that to Bush so he is 10/10. I’m hoping and praying that he is right now.
@derekcummins9088
10 күн бұрын
There needs to be a clear out of MAGA from the House of Representatives in November
@Georgek1220
10 күн бұрын
With all respect, pundits like Chris have a vested interest in, and therefore a possible unconscious bias toward, hyping this as an extremely tight race. It could get really tight if Harris stumbles, but based on how the campaign is going to date I don’t think it will be that close.
@CB-vg1wq
10 күн бұрын
I hope you are right, I would love to see Harris/Walz do a strong, double digit win in swing states. tRump/Vance could not deny the win.
@Georgek1220
10 күн бұрын
@@CB-vg1wq yes, an undeniably big margin would help protect against the damage to our democracy that maggots would otherwise inflict. So maybe I’m guilty of wishful thinking. But I think the current dynamic of the race points toward a comfortable Harris win.
@HuskyTech891
10 күн бұрын
Watch the vote margins closely in the swing states. It's going to absolutely be close based on that. Whether she marginally wins most swing states and causes her Electoral Vote count to not be close is another thing, but it wouldn't surprise me for this to be decided by < 100,000 votes in select states just like '16 and '20.
@davidlane5349
10 күн бұрын
It will come down to the 1 and only debate. There is only 18 percent of the US voters that are undecided. If the Harris’ strategy of trying to make Trump lose it in the debate works, then the election may not be as close as people think. If Trump is able to hold it together, or Harris makes a huge mistake in the debate - Then the outcome will be very close.
@johnyoungs3174
10 күн бұрын
A WIN is a WIN regardless how ‘close’ the election is, and Kamala is going to WIN 🎉💙🇺🇸
@donaalen9600
10 күн бұрын
You know guys lol you are very inspirational, just remember I said so , no matter where in the world you are today , no matter what is happening in your life , no matter the struggles, the set backs , if you are mad with someone or someone is mad with you , remember I say this, you are awesome, you have a conviction that can raise a dead dog, so from today I encouraging you to always continue to be an inspiration to someone
@memyself7956
10 күн бұрын
WE ARE NOT GOING BACK
@josh021588
9 күн бұрын
Going back to what?
@petert330
8 күн бұрын
@@josh021588To closed borders, low inflation and low unemployment, energy independence and cheap gasoline, no wars, Americas enemies fearing the US and much more.
@josh021588
7 күн бұрын
@@petert330 Why wouldn’t anyone want to go back to better times?!
@chaise_1933
10 күн бұрын
Chris, in your discussion of Allan's presidential election prediction model you omitted important detail that he used to define his criteria of the various keys. For example, your noted that you disagreed with his assessment of the challenger, a.k.a., Donald Trump not being charismatic, which is fine, but you mischaracterized how he defined it. He defines charisma as someone who is an inspiring once-in-a-generation figure who is "broadly appealing," such as perhaps Ronald Reagan or Barack Obama. By that standard, Trump is most certainly not charismatic, as he is widely viewed unfavorably and has very narrow appeal. You also expressed disagreement over his assessment of the economy. Allan is factually correct that we are not in a recession and that the broad fundamentals of the U.S. economy are very strong. His assessment is not based on economic perception based on opinion polls, which can and do fluctuate.
@lazyopposition3679
10 күн бұрын
“Do Something” - Michelle Obama
@flea10x6
10 күн бұрын
VOTE!
@imperialmotoring3789
10 күн бұрын
Who cares what that wealthy celebrity has to say.
@fdm2155
10 күн бұрын
Yeah, everybody can start by verifying that their voter registration is still in place. Then encourage friends/family to register or verify registration status. This is especially necessary if you are in a GOP controlled state. And it's very easy to do!
@imperialmotoring3789
10 күн бұрын
@@fdm2155 Good idea. I will make sure all my Trumper friends and family have their papers in order and will encourage them to vote early in case they are suppressed on election day! MAGA 2024
@bartstewart8644
10 күн бұрын
@@imperialmotoring3789 Who cares what the wealthy celebrity Donald Trump thinks? Not that he does think. By the way did you not catch the part about his track record?
@aaronbertram1951
10 күн бұрын
There's nothing more pathetic than a reality TV show celebrity who has lost his mojo. He's got nothing left.
@BabyMaharaja0
10 күн бұрын
Then why is Harris polling much worse than Hilary and Biden in 2016 and 2020?
@cjp1599
10 күн бұрын
He still has almost half the country...
@cjp1599
10 күн бұрын
@@BabyMaharaja0the democrats have had enough of the nomination bs... the blind support has withered...
@steveschuman4738
10 күн бұрын
@@BabyMaharaja0 Because polling is quite often wrong. It also may very well be missing the likelihood of young people actually voting this time. Polling takes a small sample.
@brianadams3189
10 күн бұрын
@@BabyMaharaja0because the polls have been weighted in favor of the GOP ever since the inaccurate polls of 2016. Add that to the likely voters for the Democrats who are unlikely to pick up a cold call from an unknown number and therefore won't be included in the polls. Add to that the huge numbers of newly registered voters who therefore aren't likely to be called for a poll. Add all of this together and you can see how the polling is likely to be extremely wrong.
@kalen8693
10 күн бұрын
Thank god i knew he would give it to Haris. That doesn't mean we stop fighting to defeat Trump.
@allaround200
10 күн бұрын
Trump is not charismatic, except for his shrinking MAGA base everybody else can’t stand him
@JahNgomba-ir2zi
10 күн бұрын
Shrinking? According to polls , Trump is more popular than in 2016 and 2020
@texaslocoman1
10 күн бұрын
His prediction will influence at least .05% of the electorate in favor of Harris
@FrankMaloy-x7r
10 күн бұрын
Vote blue for harris 💙 🙌 god bless America 💙 🙌 🇺🇸 🙏🏽 I'm tired of trump let's get rid of trump for good people
@Mweaver1986
10 күн бұрын
What has she done? In 3 years
@Hunterbay872
10 күн бұрын
What is her agenda? I m asking as independent voter.
@memyself7956
10 күн бұрын
@@Mweaver1986 why do y'all always ask such a stupid question when you know damn well what she has been up to. She has been our VP for the last four years. What have you been doing basement dweller.
@Mweaver1986
10 күн бұрын
@@Hunterbay872 to Raticate the country to Woke country. Give housing loans to illegal aliens but she won't help the American people with their own loans what are property loans
@CB-vg1wq
10 күн бұрын
@@Hunterbay872 Go and listen to her interview with Dana Bash. She discusses her ideas.
@micnak3574
10 күн бұрын
Honestly, if the GOP nominated somebody other than Trump, the GOP would NOT lose to Kamala. Trump's appeal is too limited. Trump's greatest appeal reached its absolute peak in 2016 when he ran against detested Hillary. Back then, Trump's antics were better tolerated. Today, with the exception of diehard Trump fans, his antics are getting old and exhausting.
@wyclefmarie5385
10 күн бұрын
Haha this guy I don’t trust him, he said few months ago it was Biden , then said Kamala and then said he will revisit again 😅
@texaslocoman1
10 күн бұрын
He accurately predicted Trump win in 2016 when Hillary was way ahead in the polls
@maximefougere4831
10 күн бұрын
Chris, according ro ABC recent poll, Trump has a 58% un favorability and a 12 % gap with Harris. How can he still be charismatic and not her?
@tyleroreilly1004
10 күн бұрын
2000 was given to Bush by the supreme court when Al gore really won in florida. So I would give him 100% accuracy
@lindawhittle4943
9 күн бұрын
Prof Lichtman is Brilliant, Love listening to him he is so informative with facts..Great Guest !!!! VOTE BLUE VOTE AND LETS GET HER IN WE HAVE THE POWER !!!!!!HOPE JOY FREEDOM 🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊
@MishaAmashukeli
10 күн бұрын
Lichtman is a clown. His "system" is completely unscientific. As you said many of his keys are subjective. The idea that every key can give a candidate only one point, no more and no less, on every election, is ridiculous. "But he predicted it correctly so many times!" - many of them were easy to predict. In his book he claims that the keys are about predicting the popular vote, not the electoral college results. Till 2016 he (mostly) correctly guessed the popular vote results. In 2016 Trump lost the popular vote contrary to what "the keys" were predicting. But then Lichtman started to claim that the keys were actually about electoral college results so he guessed it correctly! 😁 He's a charlatan.
@johnrodonis4186
10 күн бұрын
Lichtman is MORE right this time than he has ever been.
@bcb7443
10 күн бұрын
Harris/Walz! 2024 🇺🇸💙🗳️ 🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵🔵
@roberthenry9319
10 күн бұрын
This comment was written either by a 5 year old kid or by a mentally challenged person whose care giver is using picture therapy to help them express themselves. Intelligent, educated and socially mature adults do not communicate on You Tube using worthless little pictures (emojis) to express their thoughts regarding important issues such as the future of America. They use words fashioned into sentences to do that. This posting is as good of an example of internet trash as there is on You Tube.
@maximefougere4831
10 күн бұрын
Chris, there is a big difference between not being happy about inflation and being in a recession. Ask those in the unemployment line. Also, Trump is only charismatic to HIS base. Charismatic leaders must have support from both side of the isle. I agree with Lichtman on those.
@chesterhaduca7029
10 күн бұрын
Kamala is only charismatic to democrats.😂
@ramasreekantham4586
7 күн бұрын
Harris will win .. 💙💙💙💙
@SenorJuan2023
10 күн бұрын
Kamala is by the far the strongest candidate Trump has faced. He's toast.
@jamesstewart8377
10 күн бұрын
Are you serious? You can’t honestly think that. She is by far the weakest. She would lose in a primary to Clinton or Biden TODAY.
@SenorJuan2023
10 күн бұрын
@@jamesstewart8377 No, Hillary is very unpopular. That's why she lost to Trump. Kamala would crush Biden today in a primary. You are the one who isn't serious. WOW
@SenorJuan2023
10 күн бұрын
@@jamesstewart8377 Biden ONLY won the primary in 2020 because the DNC forced/pressured the other candidates to drop out before Super Tuesday. He would have been KNOCKED out then if they had stayed in.
@SenorJuan2023
10 күн бұрын
You probably think Gavin Newsom would be a strong candidate in the general election. He's NOT.
@JuanEspinosa-mm2um
10 күн бұрын
These are good news however we still need to continue fighting and moving forward! We cannot afford to sleep in our laurels. We will not go back! When we fight, we win! Kamala and Tim will win 2024!❤❤❤❤❤ love not hate
@santymercado2797
10 күн бұрын
YES GO KAMALA HARRIS VOTE 💙
@davidbernal4153
10 күн бұрын
With all due respect Chris, you don't understand the keys
@trike56dude
10 күн бұрын
Love Allan. Watch his lives every week. YAY! Kamala 2024. 💙💙💙💙💙🥳🥳🥳🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
@calisahardy4845
10 күн бұрын
Litchman's "keys" are interesting, as is his track record. With that said, just vote!
@angelliquem810
10 күн бұрын
I think Dr. Lichtman is a very educated man that looks at elections in a very analytical way. I’m inclined to believe him rather than believing Nate Silver, a poker player funded by Republicans, pollster that are wrong the majority of the time, or arrogant pod hosts that believe they are super smart…
@pamciquier307
10 күн бұрын
Chris, sometimes you’re hard to love… Here I was celebrating internally, and you go and be your Debby-Downer self… Trump is charismatic? He’s a buffoon!
@sloppynyuszi
10 күн бұрын
He explains charisma as someone that appeals to both sides. Trump does not appeal to the left. He is super divisive.
@missnellie33
10 күн бұрын
Lichtman’s 13 keys are very well-defined and their applications are not subjective. You are assuming a key’s meaning based on its superficial title and your personal layman’s understanding of what the words in the title of the key mean without actually applying Lichtman’s researched and refined definitions of the key. You can opine about whether a key should really be a key, the relative importance of a key, or that something else should also be a key, but you cannot argue with Lichtman’s definitions of the existing 13 keys, as the strict application of these objective definitions is exactly what has established Lichtman’s track record of predictive success (even when he personally does not prefer the winning candidate).
@user-rr7nq2qs8w
7 күн бұрын
Awesome!!! she's the only candidate qualified for the Presidency...
@behramcooper3691
10 күн бұрын
I hope it is not a close call, because Trump will take it to the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court will not waste any time handing over the presidency to Trump. That's my worry.
@sfagan65
10 күн бұрын
Donald Trump is no Ronald Reagan no JFK no Roosevelt
@frankh.2669
10 күн бұрын
You knew Ronald Reagan? You served with Ronald Reagan? Ronald Reagan was a friend of yours? 😂
@rootsandpots5841
10 күн бұрын
Harris / Walz - will WIN!!!
@jaym5602
10 күн бұрын
Yep and polling is always right. Cough 2016
@SeanTube2099
10 күн бұрын
I saw his video, he says trump appeals to his base but no one else. He’s not charismatic. Also it doesn’t matter what people are feeling, it’s a factual matter as to whether we are in a recession.
@MrChilimac24
10 күн бұрын
You said trump is charismatic???CRAZY yes!!!
@frankfrankenstein5933
10 күн бұрын
Mr. Lichtman has a proven method! I’m with Lichtman! HARRIS/WALZ!💙🇺🇸💯
@carlchiles1047
10 күн бұрын
Trump does not have charisma…charisma actually has people hanging,on to every word…not walking out of every rally…because the candidate is mumbling, rambling, slurring his words…and talking about 9 things that have nothing to do about anything…and good lord…the man is up there sweating bullets…and I am retired army…saw his picture and he reminded me of Robert Hayes from the movie AIRPLANE…
@gahtoppins
10 күн бұрын
Professor Allan Lichtman's prediction is very interesting. Something about this election reminds me of a mix between the 2008 election and the 2012 election. In 2012, Romney retained an advantage over President Barack Obama in many different polls on the questions of which candidate would better manage the economy, yet voters seemed to find President Obama’s message about fairness and boosting the middle class more agreeable than the Republican alternative. The exit polling at that time told the tale of the tape: Exit polling told us that people who wanted a candidate who "cares about people like me" voted overwhelmingly for Obama - more than 80 percent. It was the empathy factor.
@jarueparr
10 күн бұрын
False Chris. Allan NEVER PREDICTED that Joe Biden would beat Donald Trump. He said a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.
@earnestinedoss541
10 күн бұрын
@jarueparr and he also said his plan B which involved VP Harris. He said they should get a spine and support her.
@jarueparr
10 күн бұрын
@@earnestinedoss541 you are 💯 correct 👍🏾
@P.90.603
10 күн бұрын
Economy - High GDP, High Construction, High STock Market, and High employment. We can't replace that with how some people feel. Trump is not charismatic to most of the US.
@trike56dude
10 күн бұрын
Leave it to Allan. He’s the expert. Not you.
@stevechance150
10 күн бұрын
This pilot has safely landed 9 of his last 10 flights. This brain surgeon has successfully performed 9 of his last 10 surgeries. Tell me about the guy with the 10 for 10 predictions record.
@ashbeck1736
10 күн бұрын
Lichtman did predict correctly 10/10 as the only reason the 2000 election was won by Bush was the SC nixed the continuation of the FL vote count which his brother Jeb the then FL governor and Kathy Harris the FL Sec. of State declared Bush the winner. Also no one is at risk of being offed or unalived if a US election prediction is not correctly done whereas the other two scenarios that is not the case so an ineffective model to use as there are not equal consequences.
@Rawbertoh
10 күн бұрын
What Lichtman didn't mention was the bullshit key, where he just makes stuff up and then chooses the obvious popular vote winner. Absolute nonsense. This is like tarot cards or horoscopes.
@erikswanson5753
8 күн бұрын
I hope to God Kamala Harris wins. Trump should be in jail, not on the ballot.
@EntertainmentFilms26
10 күн бұрын
The professors prediction will only be accurate if we get out and vote! Early, absentee, or in person!
@PADon69
9 күн бұрын
Take nothing for granted, go out and vote. Harris 2024💙
@et34t34fdf
10 күн бұрын
Lichtman's keyes are highly subjective, and besides, sticking to Biden until the end made him lose all credibility for me. He better send Pelosi a nice gift, come september.
@celebratingsoundzzz3387
10 күн бұрын
Many years ago, a famous newspaper thought Dewey had beaten Truman.
@artweeks6986
10 күн бұрын
Please discuss Nate Silver’s 538 prediction as well. I am not sure Silver and Lichtman are on the same page.
@PHILLIPS8822
10 күн бұрын
Nate Silver model is based strictly on polling which in the last 3 straight elections has been off
@roberthenry9319
10 күн бұрын
I don't think anybody in America is on the same page, other than finally realizing what a dangerous horrible train wreck of a human being Donald Trump is.
@artweeks6986
10 күн бұрын
@@roberthenry9319 Agreed!
@fieuline2536
10 күн бұрын
Lichtman is such a Charlatan
@jimhowaniec
10 күн бұрын
Everybody makes a big deal out of these 9 out of 10 predictions. I predicted 9 out of 10 myself, the only "loss" being Gore. I mean, who picked against Reagan x 2, Bush Sr., Clinton x 2, Dubyah v Kerry, Obama x 2. this is not a great feat.
@bradhoward2410
10 күн бұрын
His model applied retroactively is accurate all the way back to 1860 with Lincoln’s election! It cannot go back further because the Republican party did not exist prior to that. The professor’s model is incredible, and the more it is dissected, the more it is validated.
@seagraverider
10 күн бұрын
Please vote everyone Harris 2024 ❤
@RyanCoyne-co8th
9 күн бұрын
9 for 11 said Biden is best candidate and debates don't matter.
@savannahm.laurentian1286
9 күн бұрын
I always worry, voters will stay home when they hear prognosticators.
@rubenharo250
10 күн бұрын
I WAS WAITING FOR THIS!!!!! yEAH!!! tHANK youuuuuuu!
@dgaz3057
10 күн бұрын
Hope she doesn't go the way Gore did...
@rui.craveiro
10 күн бұрын
THAT, seems to be the greatest threat in this election.
@mrjuvy49
10 күн бұрын
Gore was goofy in all 3 debates, he should have been consistent. Harris will shine next week, she will pass bar for enough independents to vote for her and coach.
@stephenderry9488
10 күн бұрын
@@rui.craveiro That seems to be the Republican's intentional strategy. The electorate is against them but if they hold enough courts, state houses, secretaries of state and election officials, that little democratic hiccup can be ironed out.
@Godwlingua
10 күн бұрын
@@mrjuvy49 we all hope so, we all hope so...because we're all on our toes for this election.
@JohnMonsterCanada
10 күн бұрын
Lichtman does not say “are people happy with the economy”. He asks if the economy is good. There’s a difference. But I agree with you on the challenger charisma
@brotherandrew3393
10 күн бұрын
I would agree in the issue of short term economy. But certainly not in regard of Trump being charismatic. The only weakness I see in Lichtman's model is that he underestimates the influence of how candidates perform in puplic. Gore lost because he was too much of a technocrat and Biden would have lost because of his disastrous debate and overall performance. Especially If a race is very tight this has a decisive influence on voters. Having said this i believe the coming debate will show whether Kamala can continue her momentum or has to suffer a setback depending upon her performance. I don't think Trumps performance will matter at all because there are already very low expectations in regard to what he will say and how he will behave.
@wardgalanis796
10 күн бұрын
I think Kamala has charisma.
@JahNgomba-ir2zi
10 күн бұрын
No lol , if you think she has you’re delusional
@mrjuvy49
10 күн бұрын
She might be in he future, will be hard to get out, should be a 8 year run.
@kathleenobrien3473
10 күн бұрын
I've been waiting for his prediction, this gives me hope but we all need to get out and vote
@stephenwilliams2421
10 күн бұрын
I would say that Harris' charisma matches Trump's .... While you may not think that Harris herself may not speak charismatically.. the fact that she's running has generated a huge amount of enthusiasm which is the same in my mind.
@DesertJoshB
10 күн бұрын
My concern is his one loss was Al Gore who he still points to winning the popular vote. Kind of a cop out as that’s very common in Democrat losses as of recently.
@katenoke1571
10 күн бұрын
Gore probably did win. Lots of Republican shenanigans occurred in Florida...
@jordanthecat
10 күн бұрын
That election result was decided by SCOTUS, which is an aberration.
@flea10x6
10 күн бұрын
that was SCOTUSA stopping the re-examination of Florida vote
@EvangelismforGod
10 күн бұрын
No, he goes deeper than that. He talks about how many black votes were purged.
@nathanriele6817
10 күн бұрын
Gore 100% should have won, it was decided by a very partisan Supreme Court that ended vote counting prematurely.
@219kentucky
10 күн бұрын
what kind of charisma do you think trump has im so confused;over half americans cant stand him
@MaBaKar
10 күн бұрын
No on should care about polls or predictions- stop listening to them. Get out and vote, and get everyone you know to do the same.
@kensweetser6901
10 күн бұрын
Tim WALZ brother and family are supporting Donald Trump
@58gennaro
10 күн бұрын
Common. My brother's a Trumper. I wouldn't vote for him for dog catcher.
@mjwaldrep
10 күн бұрын
Trump’s charisma within the total electorate is declining by the day. Harris is still a fresh face on the campaign trail. I agree with Lichtman on that point.
@arkhamfivehundred
10 күн бұрын
Shouldn't Kamala win the charisma key now since even Republicans are siding with her over Trump?
@Macdunne
10 күн бұрын
I believe that is more in line with anti-Trump sentiment vs Kamala having the charisma to win over Republicans to her side.
@arkhamfivehundred
10 күн бұрын
@@Macdunne Fair enough, I guess. Either way, the important thing is that Trump is losing support on his side.
@knightterror2826
10 күн бұрын
Isn't this the guy who said it would be a mistake for Biden to drop out? Why should I believe him?
@ruthgara574
10 күн бұрын
Maybe they should ask, Allan Lithman who will, win the electoral college, bc we all know, Kamala Harris will win the popular vote.
@nehukybis
10 күн бұрын
Precisely- this has always been his tactic. Don't specify what you meant by winning until the results are in.
@elle6327
10 күн бұрын
He specifies the electoral college, not the popular vote.
@andrewperkin7192
10 күн бұрын
People may not be happy with the economy but it depends on a recession not subjective Trump may be charismatic to his base but that's about it not larger wide spread base of appeal. Nate silver is also very wrong
@leodavinci9462
10 күн бұрын
I don't care..Don't be COMPLACENT...we fell for this in 2016....VOTE BLUE!!!
@dennisw64
10 күн бұрын
One major deciding factor: The more people voting, the more likely the Democrat will win... There are more Democrat leaning voters, than there are Republican leaning voters. Especially amongst younger voters.
@TraderTimmy
10 күн бұрын
The keys are not about Trump, they are about the White House.
@roberthenry9319
10 күн бұрын
Care to explain a bit more about what you are saying here, Happy Face Timmy?
@Kornheiser10
10 күн бұрын
Ummmm, if you give Lichman a win or 1/2 a win for Bush v Gore, by that logic you need to give him a loss for Trump v Clinton... she won the popular vote like Gore.... 🤔
@noahbody9747
9 күн бұрын
Isn't there an octopus who predicted who would win the Superbowl? Yeah, that's what I thought.
@chrisholiday3273
10 күн бұрын
I think Lichtman made the wrong call on the short term economy key. He counted that key as false in 1992 based on Gallup polling where only 12% rated the condition of the economy as good or excellent while 42% or more said it was poor. According to Gallup data from July, only 22% of the public think that the economy is good or excellent. IF he is wrong this time, I think that it will be that he missed this short-term economy key which would make six keys false against the incumbent party.
@nicholasgallanis7539
10 күн бұрын
According to Allen Lichtman his keys are TRUE or False based on FACTS, not emotions or how people perceive things to be.
@chrisholiday3273
10 күн бұрын
@@nicholasgallanis7539 I realize that's what Lichtman SAYS, however, in his OWN MODEL for 1992, he based that key as "false" based on Gallup polling. The key was technically true because the recession had been over for a full year by the time the election rolled around, but public perception did not feel that the economy had improved. I am saying that based on data alone, there is the same sentiment in 2024 as there was in 1992 on the short term economy.
@MasterForte
10 күн бұрын
He got his data on the Economic Bureau of Research, which give him the data needed on GDP growth, job numbers, but also say if we are in a recession or not.
@JahNgomba-ir2zi
10 күн бұрын
@@MasterForteand in 1992 there was no recession but since people felt that the economy was still bad , he turned the key false. If he didn’t do that , the keys would have predicted a Bush’s second term ( and we know that didn’t happened) so apparently vibe-economics can influence the keys and it’s not just based on “ objective data”
@MasterForte
10 күн бұрын
@@JahNgomba-ir2zi I guess in a way yeah, in which Lichtman did call false for Bush in regards for public reception and other factors. Though in his book, there was a recession from 1990 to 1991, and the bureau did not determine it's end until 7 week after the election. I'd say from what he said in his book, he looked through a combination of public reception, the slow GDP growth, and an increase of the unemployment rate.
@adamwheelerproductions1607
10 күн бұрын
Even Republicans are siding with Harris. You love to see it. Vote blue up and down the ballot this Roevember!
@JahNgomba-ir2zi
10 күн бұрын
Yeah like Liz Cheney? You can have that monster 🤣
@adamwheelerproductions1607
10 күн бұрын
@@JahNgomba-ir2zi Thanks, we love having a decent woman with morals and integrity on our side.
@sunshineforlunch
10 күн бұрын
Wake up.
@michaellawlor2221
10 күн бұрын
Chris, I always appreciate that you can give the campaign news in a way that fully informs while not giving me existential dread like many other news sources do.
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