Lost me at implied odds and then he looked at 10 runners and went 'Ah yes should be 16' How is that calculated ? How do you know what are good implied odds ?
@tampaolo79
11 ай бұрын
Just asked the same ….
@denasstonkus8331
2 ай бұрын
Runners x 1.5 + 1 = 16 in this case
@harry3706
2 жыл бұрын
I'm really not sure what the logic you've used is to come up with this strategy Chris. The 'finish exactly' markets are priced up individually unlike the each way part of a regular place bet. The odds of the horse finishing exactly 4th being higher than place lay odds does NOT indicate value. This strategy is incredibly flawed and mathematically unfounded, and I would not recommend that anyone follows it.
@OddsOctopus
2 жыл бұрын
100 percent, the fact there is no analysis or even mention of the price of the horse means this is flawed. Not a systematic approach at all.
@davidbriant6199
2 жыл бұрын
I agree. Also trying this with just 4 results does not show long term thinking or strategy. Surely this needs to be tested over 100s if not 1000s of results to see if it is profitable?
@harry3706
2 жыл бұрын
It’s absolute nonsense and shows a complete lack of understanding of the maths behind horse value
@hogsquicktricks6155
2 жыл бұрын
@@davidbriant6199 Exactly what I was thinking. 2ups, casino offers and EPs variance have all been tried and tested. This feels like 4 bets put on and it is now a recommended stratergy.
@Jamiecb88
2 жыл бұрын
Glad to see a comment with a bit of sense. EWNL (each way no lay) is a good example of a similar strategy that actually takes math into account. It’s a value betting system with high variance and some risk that will win out over time because our rating is higher than 100% (Not arbing on the win but the place, due to the fixed odds nature of the place on the bookies, which is tied to a fraction of the win) but this simply sounds like a strange confused mix of extra place logic and EWNL logic smashed together to create something that I hope no one buys into because it makes no sense at all.
@hogsquicktricks6155
2 жыл бұрын
Hmm not sure about this at all. Really does just sound like gambling. I thought the IO is the match on how good the QL is for the return of the win and the 2 lay wins? This sounds like it is being used for how likely the horse is to hit a certain place?
@stewillo86
2 жыл бұрын
I don't understand why you'd post this video without the full systematic approach so that you give your followers a real understanding of what you're doing here? IO of 8 but "pretend it's 16 with 10 runners" Use actual data rather than showing something and saying it's something else. Very confusing to say the least. I can't see anything apart from gambling here.
@maninwellies4167
2 жыл бұрын
Perhaps it makes more sense when you see the other video. Not sure of the point in releasing them apart to cover one topic? To me this just sounds like gambling. The QL seems quite large for a very specific outcome. Betting extra places is also a gamble, but you limit loses with your lay bet. This just seems to remove that safety net. Also with EP, some races you get more then one place extra. So some in the examples, sky sometimes paid 4th-6th (and/or 4th-7th?) - so you have multiple chances to hit the extra place. This only has one chance. I'm interested to see more as I may be missing something. But at present, instead of picking a horse to win and not laying (i.e. gambling), you are picking it to place in a particular spot and not laying - so gambling again? Perhaps the Implied odds suggest an edge, but without that part of the video, it doesn't really make sense.
@stewillo86
2 жыл бұрын
That's exactly what I see too. Just gambling on a horse finishing in a specific spot. You could do the exact same thing on a horse winning like a conventional gambler.....
@alanhaynes9672
2 жыл бұрын
depends on how limited your Skybet account is. Not really worth it for those with £9.99 max payout
@andywaudby5231
2 жыл бұрын
Been using a similar trialing a similar strategy but only on paper so no real bets(but wish I had) I use the EP matcher to get really good matches with odds over 25 with £1 Ew bets .Going for the full Ew bet rather than your specific place you cover all places been paid out and stand to make a very big return if it land in first .My results over the last 6 week's show I would have been £220 up using £1 Ew as a couple of high odds horses won.Will be giving it a go with real money in the next few weeks.
@Mark20uk
2 жыл бұрын
That's a very good plan Andy! Out of interest what are you filtering the matches on 80%+ or higher? Are you using the back odds or the implied odds for 25+? Do you know the risk to reward ratio yet?
@trainsailor
2 жыл бұрын
I use imp odds calculation i taught Chris(keep spreading the word Chris)I have no risk to reward yet as my sample is too small it just seems better value even though odds arn t as good cover ing all the places rather than just one with chance of big win if it comes in 1st
@trainsailor
2 жыл бұрын
I just think how many times each Saturday do people post my horse was 1st 2nd 3rd ect but missed the EP they would have been profit may be less but more regular
@TrickzHDef
2 жыл бұрын
Really interested in this strategy, On a low budget at the moment, done most sign up offers and a good few casino ones since the football ended. So these kind of numbers sound perfect for me.
@savinac8758
2 жыл бұрын
This is so interesting!! Can it be done with other bookies?
@paulwilkinson5656
2 жыл бұрын
I didn't know this market was available, I'm gonna look at other bookies to see if this option is there.
@MrMambaRock
Жыл бұрын
I've been matched betting for 5 months, and smashing traditional EPs for around 4. My Sky account is heavily stake restricted (down to about 20p-£1), but I am certainly going to use this strategy to try and eke out the last bit of value from the account with some big odds/IO horses. It's quick and easy to do so I'm not fussed about the small potential profits if I can do loads in a day. First one came in for a tenner profit from a 50p stake, so lets hope that continues!
@ProfitBoss
Жыл бұрын
Hey Mamba, glad you've been making some good profits but sorry to hear about the restrictions now. This strategy is great for doing what you are which is squeezing out that last bit of profit. If you'd like a cheap software which places all of these bets for you on autopilot you can check it out here: bit.ly/3oQHEDD Thanks
@broadbent96
2 жыл бұрын
This is really interesting. It's kind of akin to placing a no lay acca/refund offer - they don't come in every time, but hen they do they're well worth it. Definitely needs some more detail into which are the good bets to place though so looking forward to your next video. 😀
@yugeno
8 ай бұрын
How did you work out the implied odds at 1:45?
@tampaolo79
11 ай бұрын
10 runners - why we need at least implied odds of 16 ? What’s the formula ?
@Mark20uk
2 жыл бұрын
Being new to Matched Betting this answers one of my most concerning questions. What happens when your account is gubbed? So thanks Chris this was great value
@radovandragun7673
2 жыл бұрын
I am looking forward to the next video as I am a little confused right now, but it surely looks promising. Great video btw Chris…
@Harp00nX
2 жыл бұрын
Should this be used on healthy accounts?
@gavinstirling7088
2 жыл бұрын
I'm a bit confused, why is this extra place betting if you're only betting on an exact 4th place, then losing your stake completely if it doesn't finish 4th? Is this not just conventional betting? Love you videos Chris, been a long time subscriber but no longer been doing matched betting.
@paulwilkinson5656
2 жыл бұрын
It's just the same as doing a normal EP where you'd take a small QL if the EP wasn't hit. Try it yourself, find a good EP bet. Let's say your QL will be £3 if the horses does NOT finish in the EP. So instead of messing around backing & laying all 4 outcomes, we can simply put our £3 QL on the horse to finish 4th. We are only ever risking £3 same as the QL.
@kelvinchase1995
2 жыл бұрын
Yes it is essentially gambling. However, when doing EPs, if Sky give you the same value that you’d take or better on a horse than what you would take doing a normal EP, you why not take it. This strategy generally works better on higher odds horses. There was an Irish race last week, about a field of 18 I think. A horse priced at 300/1 actually won. However, I backed a horse to finish exactly 5th. The horse was priced at 200/1 to win and 200/1 to finish exactly 5th. Got £1 on a gubbed account!😝
@pwebb19
Жыл бұрын
Surely this is just straight punting? You could pick any place, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and do the same.
@ProfitBoss
Жыл бұрын
Hi Peter, it's not just punting since you are only getting on bets that give you an odds advantage 👍
@kelvinchase1995
2 жыл бұрын
Chris, I really think you should be looking at higher odds than that. I mentioned this market to you a couple of months ago. It’s usually only good for getting value on higher odds horses. E.G, a few weeks ago on an Irish race, the one with the 300/1 winner, 5th place was 200/1 to win but also got it at 200/1 to finish exactly 5th. Rather than scrimping to get maybe/argumentatively, a E.V+ bet, which I don’t see in this example. Another typical scenario is say a field of 12, horse at 66/1. Usually get odds of about 26/1 to “finish exactly 4th”.
@davidwelburn
Жыл бұрын
How do you know which ones to do, Kelvin? That is, which offer good value. It wasn't clear in the video. Thanks.
@mattkirsh4216
2 жыл бұрын
People calling this gambling don’t understand EV
@ArmstrongFam
Жыл бұрын
Noooo
@ProfitBoss
Жыл бұрын
Hi Andy, what's the noooo for?
@kevinharrington900
2 жыл бұрын
How did you arrive at IO of 16 Chris
@ProfitBoss
2 жыл бұрын
Hi Kevin, full method in the next video 👍
@dexparker651
2 жыл бұрын
Please explain. What makes this more profitable compared with simply placing bets on winners?
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