It is fascinating and I think his overall point is correct. The piece that I have not heard discussed yet is peak times. Sure, cars are idle 96% of the time but 96% of all cars are not idle at 8:30AM on a Monday morning. It is not an insurmountable problem, but it is a problem.
@-whackd
6 жыл бұрын
Thomas Toscano Surge pricing and pooling.
@winomaster
5 жыл бұрын
There would be adjustments if driverless cars became the norm. People would have staggered show up times. 7:00, 7:30, 8:00, etc. They couldn't have enough cabs to accommodate everyone at 8:00.
@PerfectInterview
5 жыл бұрын
It is THE problem and may very well be insurmountable. Surge pricing is not an answer because that only reduces demand and this is a supply problem. Staggering work hours could work but we seem to be locked into a 9 to 5 work schedule globally. Car pooling has never been popular and it's only practical if everyone lives in the same place and goes to work at the same office... Not the case for suburban commuters. One solution is to repurpose the cars to do last mile Amazon deliveries and lunch delivery during off peak, but that would not utilize the whole fleet. In fact, that ride to and from work will be very expensive. The Uber cost example is a joke because the driver absorbs the cost of owning and operating the car and Uber subsidizes the ride cost to build market share. If uber had to pay for operating the fleet and the utilization was only 30-40% you would see a substantial increase in ride cost... Especially if they had to make a profit, which they will at some point.
@PerfectInterview
5 жыл бұрын
The economics this guy is suggesting simply don't work. For a car service to be viable, millions of cars would have to be available for the morning commute, then sit idle for 8 hours, then be available again for the ride home. The self driving cars would be just as under utilized during off peak hours as private cars are now. Some could be used off peak for last mile package delivery and lunch delivery, but no way would you get 100% utilization of the fleet. So the car service customer would have to pay not only for the time he uses the vehicle while commuting, but also pay for the time the car is idle while waiting to be called into service during the next peak demand period. This is pretty much the same economic model that private car owners deal with now. So I don't see how there can be any huge cost savings. Certainly there will be some savings but I think it will be more in maintenance costs as fleet operators can get that done much more efficiently than private car owners. But to suggest that commuting by car service will be 90% cheaper than commuting by private car is nonsense!
@winomaster
5 жыл бұрын
Look for car services to offer levels of service. You will be able to have luxerious service if you like with leather, drink dispensers, video selections, music choices and perhaps even priority service.
@drdickspad
7 жыл бұрын
14 members for uba per car does not mean 14 cars off the road!!!
@nickruiter5774
7 жыл бұрын
He has the broad outlines here of what is happening and has introduced the lens of 'disruption' to discuss the seemingly inevitable changes brought about by driverless cars. I think I would feel more secure about the prospect if there was some discussion , for example, of what happens when a driverless truck travelling at say 60 mph is suddenly confronted by a toddler chasing an errant soccer ball and darts out into traffic. With oncoming traffic in the other lane, how does the truck overcome the laws of physics? I'm curious why it is that Brazil is 90% plus ready to adopt tyhe technology and the tech sacv Germans somewhere in the low 30's.On a day where the morning news informs all that France's general election has been severely disrupted by hacking of one of the candidates. It is so very human to accept that our reach exceeds our grasp of things. The whole project is not like the driverless BART trains around San Francisco. No doubt that technology could be extended to inter city train travel. Anyway, a note of caution about the potholes one may encounter. Cheers.
@aldigangster123
7 жыл бұрын
How is the human overcoming the laws of physics? Neither can. But computers are able to react faster and more efficient than any human driver (including Formula 1 drivers) soon. Watch the video on KZitem of super AI beating the best human Dota 2 players. I know it is scary for a lot of people, but autonomous cars are coming and they will be 10-100x safer than any human driver. Especially in accident situations.
If this is true, why does Warren Buffet maintain hiss share of Geigo?
@chobson8602
8 жыл бұрын
cos he is capitalsit
@nancy7268
7 жыл бұрын
Did you mean Geico? What is Geigo?
@MICGIL44
7 жыл бұрын
And google isn't in it for money ?
@nthdegreedesign
7 жыл бұрын
because people don't "get it"
@whatThaWho
7 жыл бұрын
A lot of what he is saying is true....except for the BS about repurposing land for "affordable housing" and "parks." Remember how computers were supposed to make our lives easier and allow us to be more efficient at work so as to not have to work as much......?
@-whackd
6 жыл бұрын
Owners of land and parking space will have a huge monetary insentive to sell or redevelop their land though. People will do what earns them money.
@Superchickenman159
7 жыл бұрын
every solution he's outlined can be alleviated by transit expansion, and with greater efficiency in space and energy to further the favor. i'd imagine we'd have to spend trillions on electricity infrastructure supporting all this dystopian shit too so we don't cripple our city as cars compete for all our power
@steverush5184
7 жыл бұрын
The general public can be cut a break - Moore's law is not common knowledge, at least not yet?
@drdickspad
7 жыл бұрын
ill still own a car just so I can go parking with my gal....!!!!!
@zerolabs
8 жыл бұрын
26,000 views over 9 months and mine is only the 4th comment? That in itself is a sad commentary. Here's another prediction for you that I hope to see in my lifetime. The elimination of terrestrial roadways altogether. Let me explain. I'm fairly certain that gravity has already been conquered, that silent, wingless flying cars are technologically feasible right now, and that the many "UFO" sightings around the world are man made, military in nature and the rest of the conventional industrial military complex is just a smoke screen for what is really happening behind the scenes. I won't enter into any discussion whether or not I believe this technology has extraterrestrial roots but only say that I believe it exists now, and in fact has existed for many decades. So why don't we have flying cars now? Simple. Because the public cannot be trusted with it. Think about it. The FAA can barely manage the airline traffic in the skies safely and they regulate it. Authorities have a hard enough time regulating vehicular traffic on the ground in 2 dimensions with so many stupid drivers on the roads. What would happen if you throw in the public zipping around the skies unregulated in 3 dimensions? Utter chaos. It hasn't happened because it cannot be allowed to happen. Now inject driverless technology. Suddenly, safe flying cars on invisible "roadways" above ground (George Jetson style) become a real possibility and with it another transformation, the dismantling or at least the curtailment of our asphalt and concrete roadway infrastructure and return to green pastures. Call me crazy but that is my vision. Z
@blendedmobility7519
7 жыл бұрын
Just because we can doesn't mean we should, or that a thing is good. And, not all disruptions are good ones. Self-driving cars will help in some ways if they are deployed well and available in an equitable way. However, we might see an increase in Vehicle Miles Traveled: more trips taken, fewer people walking, and asymmetrical advantages to wealthier people. In the end, we need to simplify, travel less, return to our earth-based use and stop drinking the high tech KoolAid.
@dannoland3133
7 жыл бұрын
A guy that has not owned a vehicle for nearly a decade is attempting to earnestly (well, maybe) predict our transportation. This presentation was so flawed in so many ways it is unfathomable... so many outright errors and misstated examples and yet many seem to take him seriously. That's rather disturbing in itself.
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