Quantitative trade models are everywhere in the policy world. But analysts and policymakers always ask: how do I know I can trust the results? What are the caveats? How well do models predict what is actually observed?
Ben Shepherd (Developing Trade Consultants and TPRF) will present a new paper that rigorously evaluates the predictive performance of a benchmark quantitative trade model with multiple sectors, input-output relationships, and trade intermediates. There are lots of little tricks along the way, and an interesting--and positive--result.
Hildegunn Nordas (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs) will provide discussant comments. She combines a research background with extensive policy experience at OECD.
This is a great session both for people involved directly in trade modeling, but also for those who interpret results and turn them into policy recommendations. The presentation will focus on intutions and findings, not technical details.
Негізгі бет TPRF June 2024 Webinar: Quantitative Trade Models for Policy
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