🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw 00:00 - Sponsor: Monetary Metals 01:23 - Macro Mondays: Overview of Rate Cut and Market Reactions 02:21 - Analysis of Recent Rate Cut and Market Reactions 03:38 - Impact of 50 Basis Point Cut on the Economy 05:22 - Historical Analysis of Rate Cuts and Market Performance 06:27 - Employment Data: Second Jobs and Part-Time Employment Trends 07:42 - Impact of Inflation on the Labor Market 08:22 - Reliability of Employment Data and Revisions 10:19 - Seasonality in Employment Data During Election Years 11:33 - Impact of U.S. Election Uncertainty on Hiring 12:41 - Impact of Hiring Uncertainty on the Economy 13:15 - Predictions for the Fed’s Actions for the Rest of the Year 14:23 - Using Withheld Taxes to Gauge Job Market Strength 15:34 - Expected Rate Cuts and Market Positioning 16:09 - U.S. Debt Ceiling and Fiscal Policy Risks 17:14 - Impact of Debt Ceiling on Treasury Issuance and Liquidity 18:46 - U.S. Treasury Cash Balance and Debt Ceiling Dynamics 20:00 - Impact of Treasury Issuance on Liquidity and Risk Assets 21:02 - Treasury Performance Before and After Debt Ceiling Deals 22:07 - Middle East Geopolitical Risks and Impact on Markets 24:43 - Positioning Strategies: Fixed Income and Liquidity Trends 25:19 - Macro Regime Models and Asset Class Performance 27:58 - Macro Regime Models for Different Regions 28:32 - Fair Value Models for Fixed Income 29:40 - Analyzing Trends in Fixed Income and Risk Assets 31:21 - Window Dressing by Banks: Impact on Markets 34:30 - Impact of Cross-Currency Basis on Liquidity 35:43 - Strategies for Managing Risk During Window Dressing Periods 36:55 - Potential Impact of Ground Operations in the Middle East 38:33 - Closing Remarks and Market Outlook
@RaoulPalTJM
Күн бұрын
Superb analysis!
@RealVisionFinance
2 сағат бұрын
Thanks!
@wealth1ness
Күн бұрын
Mikkel's mic is a bit muffled sounding.
@GutzyCall
Күн бұрын
thanks guys
@c2plex
13 сағат бұрын
Mikkel gets studio mic, selects laptop mic as the active one for the show
@Weetorp
Күн бұрын
50 bps = higher risk of bearish steepener
@avi6819
Күн бұрын
"I'll refrain from picking a side" ...buddy, there is a framed poster of trump in your background lol
@tracyforrest2253
18 сағат бұрын
😂 I said the same thing
@wasdwasdedsf
7 сағат бұрын
@@tracyforrest2253 same thing about?
@wasdwasdedsf
7 сағат бұрын
ADDITIONALLY... you mean its even a choice inbetween a fullblown comm* side destroying the country, and the best pres in moder nhistory?
@andreassteno5717
7 сағат бұрын
Hahaha - fair point.. hard to prove but we have a few Dems hanging on the walls at the office as well. We are a Geopolitical research house..
@Noma_Geo
Күн бұрын
Andreas your background is great, as the analysis.
@MissMyRyan
Күн бұрын
Is it really smart to load up on bonds, with the extended debt ceiling expiring Jan 1, 2025 (and the only prospect of repayment being reissuance), and with the curve currently steepening?
@JarHen
8 сағат бұрын
Please improve audio or micro... the quality is low.
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