Taiwan saw what happened in Hong Kong . They said that's not going to happen to us .
@hohoho13
8 ай бұрын
12:03 I think Dr. Saunders meant to say, "... one country two systems, they saw how that worked out in *Hong Kong*..."
@lokmanmerican6889
8 ай бұрын
Yes, that should have referenced Hong Kong, not Taiwan
@5pp000
8 ай бұрын
He made the mistake again, even after the interviewer very gently corrected him. Surprised they didn't edit the tape.
@zenastronomy
8 ай бұрын
no you misunderstood him. the they he was referring to is taiwan. he was saying they taiwan saw how that happened.
@zenastronomy
8 ай бұрын
like "they saw how that worked out, in usa" as in usa saw how that 1 country 2 system worked out.
@liulaolao7269
8 ай бұрын
@@lokmanmerican6889 Hong Kong does not have to pay billion every year to China PLA like she paid to the UK Royal militants before 1997. Also, all Governors of HK before 1997 were appointed by the Queen, not by the Hong Kong people.
@barriewilliams4526
8 ай бұрын
They will not be successful if their military equipment is as good as the bloody Chinese camera I recently purchased🤬
@FhillipFry
8 ай бұрын
Five dollar one?😂😂😂😂
@choolikyoon9939
8 ай бұрын
You bought a toy camera. 😊
@garyguyton7373
8 ай бұрын
Chinese goods are second rate, at best.
@wisdomtan490
8 ай бұрын
Yet , the USA boycotted HIK . You must be a joke .
@liulaolao7269
8 ай бұрын
@@garyguyton7373 second rate, at best? Yeah, the space station.
@Shineon83
8 ай бұрын
“….The worry is if there’s a major war, and one side-China or U.S. - can’t bear the humiliation of losing, so turns to nuclear weapons”…. AND, just WHICH “side” would be so paranoid about “losing face???”
@zenastronomy
8 ай бұрын
both. US rhetoric is of peace, but actual action history is of violence
@Witnessmoo
7 ай бұрын
US would not use nukes first buddy… you don’t know anything about China - their entire civilisation and belief system is based around saving face.
@GalactusOG
8 ай бұрын
Blessed with freedom! Thank God! Congratulayions from the USA!
@user-bk4on6fd8z
8 ай бұрын
Let the black people in your country have their freedom first. Girls have the freedom not to go to Loli Island. Desire to come to China
@GalactusOG
8 ай бұрын
@@user-bk4on6fd8z African Americans and women in general in America are doing a lot better that The Uighurs in China.
@liulaolao7269
8 ай бұрын
@@GalactusOG Yeah, robbery less than $900 is not a crime.
@TPELaoY
8 ай бұрын
I’ve lived in Taiwan for over 20 years, and I can say that this is one of the most sensible and accurate discussions of the situation that I’ve heard. Today is Election Day and all is normal here although the traffic is quite congested as people head to the polls.
@jesussonofgod6284
8 ай бұрын
GOD HAS ALWAYS LOVED CHINA AND HAS ALWAYS BLESSED CHINA FOREVER. ✝️🇨🇳☯️🙏🙏🙏☯️🇨🇳✝️ ✝️ GOD BLESS CHINA ✝️
@nicholasmaude6906
8 ай бұрын
@@jesussonofgod6284 Wut?
@jesussonofgod6284
8 ай бұрын
@@nicholasmaude6906 GOD WILL ALWAYS BLESS CHINA AND ALWAYS BE WITH CHINA...!!! 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏 ✝️🇨🇳GOD BLESS CHINA🇨🇳✝️
@jesussonofgod6284
8 ай бұрын
@@ken420 GOD WILL ALWAYS BLESS CHINA AND ALWAYS BE WITH CHINA...!!! 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏 ✝️🇨🇳GOD BLESS CHINA🇨🇳✝️
@RoddHarding
8 ай бұрын
@@jesussonofgod6284go away
@antonywooster6783
8 ай бұрын
"China could successfully invade Taiwan in five years" Bold prediction! Anyone who can (successfully) predict what the World will look like five DAYS from now, deserves all our admiration!
@MorningNapalm
8 ай бұрын
It is a qualified statement, not a prediction. The key word is "could". That is a maybe.
@DS9TREK
8 ай бұрын
Yep, it isn't a prediction. It's him saying China will have the capability to be successful in five years. He made no prediction on whether it will be successful.
@bipolarbear9917
8 ай бұрын
“No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy” - Helmuth von Moltke (Prussian Field Marshall)
@antonywooster6783
8 ай бұрын
@@MorningNapalm Yeah! Maybe!
@antonywooster6783
8 ай бұрын
@@bipolarbear9917 Too right!
@wonkybomb1865
8 ай бұрын
People don’t realize the importance of the industry in Taiwan. Most of the world’s semiconductor production is there and most western countries gave up producing them because it’s expensive and difficult. If China took over Taiwan the knock on effect to the west would be catastrophic.
@waltermcphee3787
8 ай бұрын
more so the affect on Chineese industries use of these semiconductors, I doubt China could invade and take over a useable semiconductor fabrication plant.
@fjalics
8 ай бұрын
Unfortunately, I only get one upvote.
@brucestrickland8561
8 ай бұрын
The Taiwan company TSMC produces the world's most advanced chips. It's the source for Apple's latest computers and phones. They're building a factory in the US but it's several years away from operation.
@jimreilly917
8 ай бұрын
Exactly. And the PRC knows this…and wants that trade monopoly. And will keep wanting it. Which is why Taiwan, 🇹🇼 ROC, cannot drop its guard. Nor can the US disengage. Along with Japan and India, ROC is a main stabilizing factor in PACRIM against PRC destabilization of the region.
@fantabuloussnuffaluffagus
8 ай бұрын
I would suggest that western countries have gotten behind, not that they have given up, there are fab projects in the US, Ireland and Germany that say they haven't given up.
@lexvangelder2525
8 ай бұрын
As long as the prc ignores the rule of law as has been made clearly manifest in Hong Kong, nobody in their right mind on the Island of Taiwan will want to unite with the mainland under whichever terms offered by xi.
@dcc70
8 ай бұрын
No one should trust a word from Xi's mouth
@liulaolao7269
8 ай бұрын
Ignoring the rule of law? Does weapon of mass destruction ring the bell?
@jamesmedina2062
7 ай бұрын
same attitude as Ukraine towards Putin. As you can tell Xi and Putin are stubborn and refuse to change course.
@theunwantedcritic
8 ай бұрын
This is all a war game! Anyone who knows anything about the geography of China and the island chains surrounding it knows that it’s very easy for China to get blockaded. That’s why they’re so concerned with opening up the belt and Road initiative. There is nothing in Taiwan that is worth shutting down China. this would be disastrous, not only for China, but for the entire global economy.
@brentinnes5151
8 ай бұрын
More than a war game..its Communist doctrine...it hasnt worried Russia getting starting a war......and China can get its stuff from western areas
@user-jgn1944
8 ай бұрын
What would happen if the rest of the world stopped all trading with China? Especially for the Chinese economy?
@wisdomtan490
8 ай бұрын
The rest of the World will not as they supported One China policy. It is only the loss to whom who not wanting to trade with China as the latter contributed 20 percent of the world GDP n kept on growing . No Amy country cud neglect China's contribution to the World economy .
@joekerr8037
8 ай бұрын
The economy of the rest of the world will implode, kid !
@eelchiong6709
8 ай бұрын
A lot of people all around the world is gonna be unhappy losing their cheap source of goods. It's gonna effect their governments as leaders are replaced. That's what's gonna happen to the rest of the world. As for China's economy, well, it's gonna crash down unless they shift to selling goods that the world find irreplaceable. But they would have the satisfaction to see civil unrest in the other countries. Nice revenge if you ask me.
@ZenPepperClub
8 ай бұрын
What are you brain dead or something half of everything in this world is made in China including heaters air conditioners car parts you name it even if we Diversified it would take 10 to 20 years
@TheMiracleMatter
8 ай бұрын
@@joekerr8037 Depends how gradual it is. India, Bangladesh and a flurry of other countries are already stepping up to the plate more and more.
@zenchang8957
8 ай бұрын
The 1992 talk didn’t actually result in any “consensus” and the two sides are basically making interpretations that they see fit. Taiwanese do not think that the 1992 talk means Taiwan is party of China
@simonsimon1814
8 ай бұрын
Even the Sino-British joint declaration, an international treaty submitted to the UN, has become a "historical" document according to China. For China nothing will matter as long as they see fit to alter any agreement.
@jerrykahn6894
8 ай бұрын
China won't be able to invade Taiwan if they wait for 5 years because there won't be any China in 5 years to wage a War. China's economy is going bad so fast that it's not likely that the country can last 3 years, let alone 5. By this time next year there will be very little of China's basic industry still in operation. Most of it's manufacturing is reshoring to cheaper labor pools. Imports and Exports are drying up. Transportation is failing. Real Estate is dying. Unemployment has skyrocketed. Consumer spending is shrinking and Consumer confidence has disappeared. Shadow Banking is in dire straits. Regular Banking is in crisis. Local, Provincial, and National Governments are in Debt crisis. The Police and the Military are being forced to suffer pay cuts and in some cases work force reductions along with the civil servants of the country. Corruption is being found to be so rampant in the Military that equipment is being found to be unreliable or unusable. How in the world is a country in such a condition ever going to be able to go to War when it has 5 more years to ROT AWAY?
@computerjoy
8 ай бұрын
Another propaganda machine
@robertmiller2173
8 ай бұрын
Go Taiwan! love from New Zealand!
@crushrussia
8 ай бұрын
Reminder..."mainland" China is the breakaway state from the real China.
@ricky1231
8 ай бұрын
What with rockets filled with water instead of fuel. Smoke and mirrors. The Taiwanese strait is not a small body of water How does China maintain war logistics when there are only two 2 week windows to invade per year on account of cyclones 🌀 & bad weather??? Seems to be an impossible task to me
@AhmedAhmed-xo8jr
8 ай бұрын
Plus welding the Silo lids shut might be an issue when launching rockets.
@FhillipFry
8 ай бұрын
It only needs one week😂😂😂
@calvinblue894
8 ай бұрын
Who said only two weeks?? China doesn't even need to attack.. Just surround with artifical islands.. And sit out.. Lol 😅😅😅 But really.. China overpowers Taiwan..
@steveburke7675
8 ай бұрын
@@calvinblue894 Ppl thought that Russia overpowers Ukraine.
@calvinblue894
8 ай бұрын
@@steveburke7675 Russia to Ukraine ratio is 3 to 1 China to Taiwan is 70 to 1.. Come on!!!!! And Taiwan military are 4 months conscripts... Ukraine military was 8 years Civil War experienced soldiers.. It's too far a cry..
@OTISWDRIFTWOOD
8 ай бұрын
Philip Saunders has the broadest shoulders in human history. I wouldnt pick a fight with this dude
@charlesburgoyne-probyn6044
8 ай бұрын
When was the last time there was an army on the move in his neighborhood
@user-vc5zt9ci12
8 ай бұрын
He has some levers there for sure!
@garethalbans
8 ай бұрын
Assuming China did successfully invade Taiwan, what would be the consequences for China, and have they planned for this? How would they incorporate, or suppress, 23 million people opposed to them, could that destabilise mainland China? What would be the effect on China's economy, especially its trade with the rest of the world?
@JohnGeorgeBauerBuis
8 ай бұрын
In a sentence, it would be a huge mess. Everyone would lose, from other countries that trade with Beijing, to the Mainland people, and of course the people of Taiwan.
@jeffreywyatt6425
8 ай бұрын
China will never invade Taiwan. The DPP’s/US support is diminishing - the KMT now have the most seats in parliament, and the new President only got 40% of the vote, as apprised to 57% previously
@SelwynClydeAlojipan
8 ай бұрын
The USA and its allies Japan and Australia, then India, and even Singapore could just immediately blockade and prevent petroleum from the Middle East from reaching China via the Indian Ocean and the straits in Indonesia. After that China runs out of fuel in a month and then it runs out of nationwide electricity a bit later. Even the food and fertilizers that would have gone to China would be stopped and there will famine starting within six months to a year from now. Before that happens, the Chinese people could already start revolting against Beijing and the Chinese provinces could start breaking away as well.
@kennedy6618
8 ай бұрын
@garath, There are 13 small countries that recognize Taiwan as a country and US is not one of them. On the UN charter of right 2758 recognize Taiwan is part of China. The US interest is to destroy the Chinese economy, just like US did to Japan in 1983. ( The Plaza Accord).
@kennedy6618
8 ай бұрын
This Dr Phillips thinks inside of a shoe box or he is a die hard pro US. Russia knows very well if China is defeated by the US and it's allies ( We all know US will not go in alone), Russia, N.Korea, Iran, Cuba, Syria, and many other countries know they will be next on line to be conquered by US and its allies and China knows very well if Russia is defeated and China will be next victim of the US Hegemony. US is using Taiwan as tool to destabilize the Chinese economy as well with sanctions and political influences. China knows there are approximately 400 US military bases encircle them and the day they solve this chess game of war...China will challenge the Taiwan status. So I believe, the time is on the Chinese side.
@Alvedrotten
8 ай бұрын
...with water in their fuel tanks?
@olaftehrani2442
8 ай бұрын
Dr. Saunders is very knowledgably Thanks :)
@TalleyrandsPuppet
8 ай бұрын
Biggest lesson for CCP from Ukraine is that the GOP is soft on our adversaries. They will wait to see the results of the US election.
@user-ij6ve3rw6s
8 ай бұрын
where you get the rockets and recources from look japan taiwan korea are smart all same other wise why they already not attacked each other yeah its worthless they awaking from the propaganda thiefs its in all historys lesson mate it was a comdian who controlled your weapons an nato money and regulations of all he is your king the beggar of all for free
@liulaolao7269
8 ай бұрын
China will set up a base on the moon 2030 regardless who is the US president.
@bikergirluk8059
8 ай бұрын
So I’ve just watched the recent Warographics video on the Chinese military and the level of corruption and numerous failings that have been identified by western intelligence and likely the cause of the recent purge in the CCP. Water being used instead of fuel, ill fitting silo covers that would cause problems during launch etc. It would come as no surprise to find out the whole of the Chinese military is just as bad, if not worse, than Russia. So much so, there is speculation that an invasion of Taiwan may be off the cards for years. I’ve also being playing Call of Duty and it’s no surprise that many of the cheaters on there are from China. Why improve or produce quality when there’s an easy shortcut to be had. Seems to be the Chinese ethos 🙄
@bipolarbear9917
8 ай бұрын
I lived in China for 13 years and it’s still rife with corruption. The only anti-corruption campaign Xi Jinping is conducting is on his rivals. It’s just the usual authoritarian playbook tactic of purging anyone that’s perceived as a threat. After the 2008 Beijing Olympics there was an air of openness and optimism, but from 2012 all that started to change after Xi Jinping was appointed leader. Little by little he cemented his power by using ‘the iron fist inside the velvet glove’ on a spineless Chinese People’s Congress. Xi Jinping aka ‘Winnie the Pooh’ has become Mao 2.0
@FhillipFry
8 ай бұрын
*Western media😂😂😂
@BilalAhmed-zq7gq
8 ай бұрын
I’m sure on the Chinese version of KZitem, they’ll have similar videos showing discrepancies in the western militaries
@youarebeingtrolled6954
8 ай бұрын
The same intelligence said with 99% certainty that Saddam had WMDs
@footballocks4063
8 ай бұрын
Agreed with most of what you were saying there until you slipped into a lazy racial stereotype at the end
@ukmaxi
8 ай бұрын
Given the recent news about systemic corruption within the PLA this is now kinda doubtful. It would be a while before that is rectified and is truly ready to conduct such an operation.
@BilalAhmed-zq7gq
8 ай бұрын
Systematic corruption happens everywhere, such stuff has been reported many times in the US military, especially with top generals taking hundreds of millions in bribes from top American arms producing companies
@orangutanfan3179
8 ай бұрын
No news comes out of China without the CCP's say so. They want to publicly shame people to shake the tree.
@liulaolao7269
8 ай бұрын
China's strategy is to maintain a peaceful environment so that she can grow her economic power further. When China's GDP is twice that of the US, the War will be won without a battle. That is why the US is trying to create instabilities.
@josephjuno9555
8 ай бұрын
Just ask Hong Kong about co-existing with China?
@USAACbrat
8 ай бұрын
Does the Bank of China still buy Taiwan's paper they used to?
@maynerdneidlinger5444
8 ай бұрын
There's no country called Taiwan, you're thinking of the Republic of China.
@ChangesOneTim
8 ай бұрын
Well - at least no one is calling it Formosa these days!
@kevinclasher3160
8 ай бұрын
15:19 over the years when the British ruled Hong Kong, did they allow the Hong Kong people vote who runs Hong Kong? Answer is no, it has always been hand selected by the British and ran by a British person. So how is this changed? 🤷♂️🤦♂️
@ChangesOneTim
8 ай бұрын
A lot. The Governor of HK, as the Queen's representative in the colony, was a figurehead position. The government (executive/ legislature/ judiciary) was run by Hong Kongers. A few top officials were appointed with the Governor's approval on behalf of the Queen, but Hong Kongers elected their parliament/ ministers and made all their own laws. No doubt there were pro-China sympathisers pre-1997 but the vast majority did not vote for them. The British didn't parachute people in to start dismantling democratic institutions, rig elections to neuter parliament in order to impose draconian police-state laws restricting various freedoms by decree from London. If anything, over the years the British increased HK's autonomy. Big difference.
@klaasvakie
8 ай бұрын
@@ChangesOneTimbig deal! Why was Hong Kong a british colony in the first place. It's not like Britain introduced democracy to the world. Now the once _great british empire_ has been reduced to a whimpering vassal of the USA, impotent and desperate for some validity.🇷🇺🇨🇳🥃
@peterfireflylund
8 ай бұрын
@@ChangesOneTimdemocracy in Hong Kong was a rather late development.
@kevinclasher3160
8 ай бұрын
@@ChangesOneTim a few officials were appointed with the Governor’s approval…. So there was no choice by the Hong Kong people, did they get a choice? No…. Case closed…. 🤷♂️🤦♂️
@computer-ot8si
8 ай бұрын
it's China govt always and particularly after 1984 join declaration, threated UK not to let Hongkong have full democratic system before 1997. Mainly because if it's full democratic, since China govt is not favorable at all, so the pro-China side political force are always losing. And after 1997, China govt were still always working on delaying Hongkong democratic process up to a point that China govt finally explicitly broke the promise, and refuse to let Hongkong be fully democratic at all. That caused the big protests and chaos in Hongkong.
@eldorado5319
8 ай бұрын
Very enlightening interview, thanks Times Radio.
@richardmanlapig-l5f
8 ай бұрын
Invasion is not possible coz all ballistic missiles were filled with water instead of rocket fuel😂
@dss2mtm
8 ай бұрын
The most important question of why would it matter to the West if China moved on Taiwan was met with eye avoidance and hesitstion, repeating the question back before the non- answer of. "it would matter because it would be likely to precipitate a wider war" ie with the west. Ok, yes, but why would the West precipitate a war? That the US has a policy of resisting unification by force? This leads back to the same question of why precipitate a war when Taiwan was not always a democracy. He then said because the region is of "great interest" but again 'why' ? The unstated answer is the war of choice of containment of China not to break outside the 1st island chain. It's for US geo strategic interest to be number 1 in the Pacific and uphold its other treaties, less the US led world order look weak.
@user-jgn1944
8 ай бұрын
And. My suggestion. Stop dealing with China and go to India!
@Lost_Johnny
8 ай бұрын
😂😂😂😂😂😂
@pedtrog6443
8 ай бұрын
Thank you Times Radio. Great interviews and interviewees. Kia ora from NZ
@jeffreywyatt6425
8 ай бұрын
China has never said it wants to invade the province (UN resolution 2758) of Taiwan. But it will defend Taiwan against foreign invasion! The DPP is a minority government - most voters in Taiwan didn’t want them, and recent surveys have shown that the vast (over 70%) majority want to keep the current status quo, with the mainland!
@isaacg.9857
8 ай бұрын
WuMao alert. Stop masquerading as a non- Chinese little WuMao.
@jeffreywyatt6425
8 ай бұрын
@@isaacg.9857 I’m a UK citizen and live in Norwich. Your response is incredibly immature! UN Resolution 2758 states that Taiwan is a province of China, and is recognised by every country in the world (apart from a handful) including the US. If that’s wrong, perhaps you could show me otherwise?
@mikelixx
8 ай бұрын
Good point
@tcdwu
8 ай бұрын
@@jeffreywyatt6425 Resolution on Admitting Peking Resolution 2758 (XXVI) THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY. Recalling the principles of the Charter of the United Nations. Considering the restoration of the lawful rights of the People's Republic of China is essential both for the protection of the Charter of the United Nations and for the cause that the United Nations must serve under the Charter. Recognizing that the representatives of the Government of the People's Republic of China are the only lawful representatives of China to the United Nations and that the People's Republic of China is one of the five permanent members of the Security Council. Decides to restore all its rights to the People's Republic of China and to recognize the representatives of its Government as the only legitimate representatives of China to the United Nations, and to expel forthwith the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek from the place which they unlawfully occupy at the United Nations and in all the organizations related to it. YOU WERE SAYING ?
@mitsunekolucky671
8 ай бұрын
Well, you don't speak Chinese, so of course you don't know what's the propaganda inside the great firewall of China.
@flashingturtle6505
8 ай бұрын
Nice to hear it described as imperialism and not 'democracy'.
@pagarb
8 ай бұрын
In the early stages of China's "economic development" there were a lot of Taiwan Chinese businessmen who went to China where they played an extremely important role in China's "development".. All this has been conveniently forgotten, overlooked or suppressed in the rationalization for "reunification".. Without this support China would still be struggling with replications of Mao's "Great Leaps Forward" that were spectacular failures. The other big issue was the opening of the US market to consumer goods made in the factories built by these Taiwan based businessmen, without which there would be anything to show for the effort.. No market-No business-No success-No development!! End of issue!!!
@HypermarketCommodity
8 ай бұрын
Don't forget the Japanese in this as well. Still, the most important element was the creation of the supercompetitive industrial centers that are interlinked. Not only technical assistants, but Deng's visionary strategy itself. This vision still aimed at hegemony and conflict, as 韬光养晦 allowed the Chinese to build up global imperial strength not on the back of guns but through trade. To be honest, it somewhat reminds me of the USA's imperial rise. When it came to WW2, they had a gigantic industrial base that was in an overproduction crisis (same for China, interestingly), which allowed the USA to convert this civilian industry into a military industrial base unmatched in history. (That's also where the "perpetual war for perpetual peace" policy of the United States comes from, as Harry S. Truman was a weak leader and feared returning to the depression. So, the permanent war was codified with documents such as N.S.C. 64.) So, the Chinese will soon stand in front of the same decision, and the Western imperial power will either try to appease China, or will see a dragon awake. I can't imagine the military capacity coming from the Chinese industrial base when it is converted into war production.
@thelawfus
8 ай бұрын
@@HypermarketCommoditydoes it matter what the industrial base produces when US or Japanese navy cuts off access to petroleum? I know China produces some oil and natural gas, but I don’t think they have enough to support civilian and military uses simultaneously.
@alapaticornell4391
8 ай бұрын
Chi-Xi the paper tiger & paper dragon. F the CCP 😢😂😢😮😂😢
@HypermarketCommodity
8 ай бұрын
@@alapaticornell4391 They have quite a lot of paper my Indian friend.
@geofflepper3207
8 ай бұрын
@HypermarketCommodity There are a few huge differences between the United States of the 1950s and China of today. One, in the 1950s the United States had as allies basically all the wealthy developed countries in the world including those that still had large empires wheeas China has as its allies impoverished North Korea and relatively poor and unstable Iran and Pakistan and I think that at least for Iran and Pakistan it's more a marriage of convenience. Consider as well that one serious study came to the result that three of the four most powerful airforces in the world are American and China's airforce was not the other airforce in the top four. That's hardly Chinese dominance. Two, in the 1950s the United States population was growing at a very fast rate with large families and massive amounts of immigration whereas today China is in demographic crisis with extremely low fertility rates and a huge shortage of young women and large amounts of emmigration and little immigration so its working age population is dropping quickly and it's population is quickly aging. One recent report indicated that the Chinese working age population had fallen by 38 million people in just 3 years - extrapolate that for 3 more decades and China is in trouble. Three, in the 1950s the United States was one of the world's richest countries with its people having one of the highest standards of living in the world if not the highest whereas China is still a middle income country with many countries having a much higher per capita income. Four, in the 1950s the United States economy was close to half the size of the world economy in terms of GDP and no other country had remotely as large an economy whereas today China's GDP is less than 18% of world GDP and still significantly less than that of the United States and even the GDP of the European Union is in the same ballpark as Chinese GDP so although China is very important to the world economy it is not remotely as dominant as was the American economy in the 1950s.
@user-di8wk3pr9m
7 ай бұрын
We should not mock a country for NOT invading it's neighbour but instead praise it's wisdom.
@sat7755
8 ай бұрын
Thank you Dave as usual, crisp and deep. Keep it up
@mikeshen9293
8 ай бұрын
Nobody has told you in the west, It is the Chinese people wanted their island back, regardless, who runs the government. can you see how legit is this?
@USAACbrat
8 ай бұрын
different empires working together? They have to train together not just who is first in the Parade.
@Shineon83
8 ай бұрын
Great guest, very informative ❤
@davidyeung9115
8 ай бұрын
I don’t think China can do any thing, even if Mr Lai déclares independence
@joekerr8037
8 ай бұрын
Why do you think he dare not do it, kid ? I doubt he wants to be the next Zelenskyy.
@ZenPepperClub
8 ай бұрын
Seems like even the thought of this scares you no China will not invade a free Taiwan it has a lot to lose economically it's definitely not worth it add USA will come to the help @@joekerr8037
@Lost_Johnny
8 ай бұрын
LOL
@r2com641
8 ай бұрын
Can’t? So somehow you already figured out that they WANT but CANNOT?
@constantinmilitaru
7 ай бұрын
There joint forces should be helping the Chinese people and stop wondering what’s going on, on Gilligans island…
@geofflepper3207
8 ай бұрын
So glad that he talked about the potential economic and diplomatic costs to China of an attack on Taiwan. The vast majority of videos and articles on the possibility of a Chinese attack on Taiwan focus on the military aspects of such a scenario but the economic and diplomatic aspects seem more important. Even if Chinese forces had quick and complete success in an invasion into Taiwan the loss of trade for China would be devastating. To be conservative imagine that developed countries in both the west and the east cut purchases of Chinese exports by 65% within 4 years, a very conservative number compared to the reduction of European purchases of Russian exports over the past two years and Russian exports of fossil fuels are much harder to source elsewhere than are most Chinese exports. Consider as well that whereas southern countries such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam may be neutral regarding Russian imperialism in Ukraine they may see increased Chinese imperialism as a threat to themselves and so may very well be supportive of western economic actions against China as they may see themselves as being on the front lines against China as countries in Eastern Europe see themselves on the front lines against Russia. Consider as well that the above countries and other southern countries such as Mexico and Brazil may be happy to take the place of China as suppliers of goods to western and eastern wealthy countries. China plays such a central part in world trade that it's hard to imagine it being sidelined entirely from world trade but certainly if China attacks Taiwan its role in world trade could be severely diminished. As well it's very possible that Chinese assets outside of China could be seized and possibly loans owed to China ignored while China might seize western assets in China. As well, following such an attack on Taiwan it's very unlikely that any companies in developed countries would invest any more money in China for decades to come. It's very hard to believe that even a successful attack on Taiwan is worth the economic and diplomatic cost for China and there is no guarantee that an attack will succeed quickly or even succeed at all.
@dogdad5264
8 ай бұрын
Brilliant, well explained, logical assessment. thank you.
@xyeB
8 ай бұрын
You’re a fool
@fuzzyspackage
8 ай бұрын
UAP wars.🛸 #TechRace
@liulaolao7269
8 ай бұрын
Putin said China does not have to use military means to take over Taiwan.
@2KSnSLifestyle
8 ай бұрын
Wow, you certainly draw a scenario in your imagination, whereas a successful invasion could simply end up as business as usual just like the Tian An Men incident. You also assume that the West and Asian economy would not be devastated by stopping trade with China. There will be a lot of dead bodies outside China and rampant inflation throughout the world as China supplies many critical medicine and components for manufacturing to the outside world. If your scenario was likely, Taiwan would have declared independence a long time ago. Let that sink in.
@araara4746
8 ай бұрын
Phillip Saunders: "China views Taiwan as part of its territory." Actually, the US also views Taiwan is part of China territory, because the US only recognizes PRC and does not recognize the ROC. So, please keep the truth as it is.
@joshjones6072
7 ай бұрын
One thing I worry about is the PRC using some of their 10k fishing ships from around the world for sea lifting or sabotage.
@tonysu8860
8 ай бұрын
I'm a lot more pessimistic about the PLA capability to invade "in a few years" but overall I think most of the various factors that might affect a decision to invade Taiwan due to Taiwan government and policy is fairly covered. There is probably a whole different set of possible factors that might motivate China to invade Taiwan regardless of what Taiwan does and in those cases it doesn't matter who is governing Taiwan or China/Taiwan relations.
@spxram4793
8 ай бұрын
I think you're right, as related to Taiwan. Thinking in a similar way, I came to the conclusion a while ago that they can decide to invade Siberia any time - Russia is dependent and cannot defend itself. So why not? Also, nobody would jump in to help the opponent - in contrast of the Taiwan issue.
@jesussonofgod6284
8 ай бұрын
CHINESE PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD WILL ALWAYS PRAY AND SUPPORT CHINA FOREVER 🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳 🇨🇳 🇨🇳 🇨🇳 🇨🇳 🇨🇳 🇨🇳 GOD WILL ALWAYS BLESS CHINA AND ALWAYS BE WITH CHINA...!!! 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏 ✝️🇨🇳GOD BLESS CHINA🇨🇳✝️
@spvlinn9009
8 ай бұрын
TW's constitution says it is p art of china
@mitsunekolucky671
8 ай бұрын
@@jesussonofgod6284 No, I'm Chinese and do not support the CCP.
@tyrionas
8 ай бұрын
Not sure why you are pessimistic there, a lot of very conservative estimate show that they aren't ready for at least a few years. But there are also a lot of reports of corruption in china's military and if Russia can be taken as an example, corruption is really difficult to deal with. It is fairly likely that just like Russia, china has a major corruption problem and it might make their military drastically underperform.
@FormosaC-zd6gc
8 ай бұрын
Two Chinas 兩個中國: Republic Of China 🇹🇼 People's Republic of China 🇨🇳
@AdamWest-qp3yp
8 ай бұрын
They tried flexing numbers..meanwhile can’t even orchestrate them 😂
@GilgaFrank
6 ай бұрын
"... despite it's Taiwanese rival being elected" So .. despite IT IS Taiwanese rival being elected? Nice butcher's apostrophe there, Times journalists.
@user-sk4nx9if9h
8 ай бұрын
Play Ball 🇺🇸💪
@bixbysnyder-00
4 ай бұрын
All of China's "new" weapons systems look like something i've seen somewhere before...
@andrewwarcup684
8 ай бұрын
So the D day landings involved over 5000 ships for 175000 soldiers. I think Taiwan might get a bit suspicious if that many ships started to head their way across 120km of water.
@jamesmedina2062
7 ай бұрын
What is your point? What you stated is wrong. There would be no surprise.
@edwardblair4096
8 ай бұрын
If a conflict between China and Taiwan started, and say drew in US, and other regional actors, wouldn't there beca possibility that North Korea looks at the situation and decided that that would be their best shot at taking out South Korea? Everything would depend on the actual details of the situation, but that is an example of the type of escalation that could occur. India and China also have one or more border disputes. India could, for example, extract concessions from China in order for them to not get involved with a conflict with Taiwan. On the other hand the US, Australia, and Japan have set up a quad arrangement with India against China, so there are a lot of open questions.
@ivanskirchak4935
8 ай бұрын
ROK is more than capable of handling the DPRK. This isn’t the 50s.
@JoseRuiz-ng3qs
8 ай бұрын
12:06 He meant, "They saw how that worked out in Hong Kong".
@wchen315
8 ай бұрын
Taiwan and mainland China are not rivals, just like Ukraine and Russia are not rivals.
Historically the Dutch was the first colonial power ruling Taiwan in 1624. Only China is laying claim to the island. If everyone behaves like China, it will be chaos in Europe as boundaries have been redrawn many times there.
@Imbalanxd
8 ай бұрын
You defeat your own argument. China lays claim to that which the KMT, which they overthrew, has claim to. If the KMT has claim to the island, then it is china's. If china has no claim to the island, then neither does the KMT
@petersinclair3997
7 ай бұрын
The Dutch were followed by the Manchurians, Japanese and Japanese under Western occupation. When Chiang Kai Shek and the KMT arrived in 1949, the occupation command was lead by General Douglas MacArthur (US, supreme) and General John Northcott (Australia). The were three US operations generals under the leadership command. The KMT didn’t take Taiwan. Taiwan was renounced by Japan in 1952. The KMT population became Taiwanese in under the Treaty of Taipei (1952). Mao didn’t try to invade Taiwan, with occupying powers in residence. Moreover, Mao held Taiwan to be an independent country (1936).
@rc....
8 ай бұрын
Because they are BROKE!
@chairde
7 ай бұрын
Taiwan has had decade to dig tunnels and other defensive positions. China has no experience doing a seaborne operation.
@ryansmith8759
8 ай бұрын
Wow. Someone who knows what they are talking about on Taiwan.
@johncrossley8969
7 ай бұрын
This 'expert' needs to study his topic. So far after 5 minutes he has been totally wrong about our country here in Taiwan.
@rizaldymarcella
8 ай бұрын
China knows fully well that if it misadventurously invade Taiwan, and the US would defend Taiwan, then China could cause a massive economic depletion in a very short period with a little gain or non.
@user-di8wk3pr9m
7 ай бұрын
For almost 80 years Taiwan was running very well by not being specific about the "one China - two Chinas" question. Don't talk - don't ask! In particular, do not force P. R. China to be specific. I believe that P. R. China does not want to invade Taiwan, as long as we not threaten them to loose face. Saber rattling is o. k. as long as it documents that we are afraid of P. R. China.
@user-ry3fi2iw4e
7 ай бұрын
The dragon that breath fire becomes a comodo dragon😅😅😅
@gregparrott
8 ай бұрын
Excellent interview! I've seen analysts posit that if China blockaded Taiwan, the U.S. military would blockade CHINA. This would be especially damaging to China because China is highly dependent on imported food, fuel and fertilizer. The U.S. fleet is far more capable than China's as a 'blue water' force, and China's imports pass through KEY chokepoints, such as the Malacca Strait. Additionally, China has few 'friends' in the south and east China seas. - India generally stays aloof from alliances. But there are military tensions between India and China, and India has a token alliance with the 'QUAD' (Australia, India, Japan, the U.S.). - The U.S. is substantially expending its military presence in the Philippines, from 5 bases to 9, including new strategic ones in the north, close to Taiwan. - Singapore has been expanding their military, and most of their weapons come from the U.S. They even have F-35s on order. While they maintain good relation with China, the only logical adversary warranting such purchases is China. Also, Singapore enjoys good relations with the United Kingdom which shares ties in the Five Power Defense Arrangements (FPDA) along with Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand. - Vietnam has expressed concern about China's aggressive enforcement of their bogus 'Nine Dash' claim to the south China sea, and has warming relations with the west - Malaysia has been buying western arms from the U.S. and Korea, and similarly, has issues with China's bogus Nine Dash claim. - South Korea tries to maintain ties with China. But they recently signed an alliance with the U.S. and Japan against China, and is increasing its arms production I hope it never comes to armed conflict with the CCP. The way I see it, even if the CCP could succeed in invading Taiwan, Taiwan would be devastated, and China would suffer huge losses, both short and long term, China's and Taiwan's trade would drastically diminish, the most valuable asset - semiconductor manufacturing facilities would DEFINITELY be destroyed (we'd make sure about that), Taiwan's economic contribution to China would turned into a liability, with hostile Taiwanese, AND, the CCP just might lose I just don't see how an invasion 'pencils out' as worthwhile.
@philipharris-smith5889
8 ай бұрын
It’s funny to see these after the result.
@meadhill
8 ай бұрын
China can but doesn't want to. West has no clue.
@vladtheinhaler8940
8 ай бұрын
You sound like a 1st grader.
@daevkeli1013
8 ай бұрын
despite its… (no apostrophe) please.
@joewithajay
8 ай бұрын
You are doing the lord's work.
@xsavila
7 ай бұрын
Your expert doesn't seems to know more than what the mainstream media says
@garyhuntsr71698
7 ай бұрын
❤ and by the way, there should have been a lot of mentions about the/ South China Sea encroachments/ By China, and the harassments to Japan and even Philippines and Vietnam's and all the rest of Southeastern Asia🎉😢😮
@JuanSanchez-ik7wx
8 ай бұрын
What happens if china allows North Korea to establish a military base on Taiwan?
@brentinnes5151
8 ай бұрын
China would claim the Isle of Wight if it had half a chance
@vinhhuynh1774
8 ай бұрын
No one talks about what happen to the South Vietnam people who sided the US; the Hong kong people who sided the democratic propaganda; most of these people don't even know the meaning of Democracy; Democracy is not personal Liberty; Democracy is equality for all; not far from Socialize. These people become a nobody at the end; and that's gonna happen to the people in Ukraine whom sided the US; that is if they survive from the war, and if the Taiwanese don't see it; its just Sad. It might be foreign to other nations; but it is very simple if you are Chinese; the choice is Taiwanese or Traitor.
@samhy
8 ай бұрын
You are so poor analysises with anti-China ideology in Your mind.
@brentinnes5151
8 ай бұрын
Chinese mainlanders are not allowed to analyse because the internet is banned
@harrickvharrick3957
8 ай бұрын
I wonder what that idiotic title was even actually MEANT to mean. "It's" Taiwanese Rival? Being Elected ?????
@eugene65yo49
7 ай бұрын
One thing that is lacking for China invasion to Taiwan that is the element of surprise and China have prepared for a long time to succeed Taiwan and please dont be caught sleeping depending Taiwan
@greyhound2401
8 ай бұрын
So.... isn't China actually part of Taiwan?
@thomassmith9260
8 ай бұрын
Why by war for unification when you can have both. A Democracy on one side and a Dictatorship ( Communism) on the other. Make friendship and Trade. Really no benefit to anyone with war. I hope Mr Xi understands this.
@johnwethekylow
8 ай бұрын
its*
@Jacmac1
8 ай бұрын
An invasion of Taiwan would bring world trade with China to a screeching halt. All US investment in China for production of cheap iPhones, computers, LEDs, solar cell panels, and batteries would stop. All trade of cheap goods from China would stop. All trade in semi-conductors from China and Taiwan would come the a halt. The markets worldwide would fall by huge numbers, like 50% or more. The world economy would take a big hit, but China would end up being completely cut off and isolated, except for North Korea and Russia, heh. China would suffer more than the rest of the world and it could lead to a collapse of the CCP.
@keithchao9101
8 ай бұрын
Taiwan and China are two nations,,,for almost 300 years
@brennencox516
7 ай бұрын
5:40 And in 1945 the PRC didn't exist, only the RoC existed. Hence, the CCP has never controlled the island of Taiwan. After creating the PRC, Mao said the CCP would 'liberate' the province of Taiwan from the evil nationalists, but that was never accomplished, as this guy stated. 8:25 "Taiwan" is already an independent country. The Republic of China (RoC) was founded in 1912, and hasn't cease to exist yet. The 'One China Policy' is rather silly. Both Chinas say there is only one China (same thing w/ the 2 Koreas, both claim there is only 1 Korea). It's like if me and you say we are the same person. Is that reality? This guy earlier said sth like 'when the civil war ended' but then just a bit ago said 'the civil war that really never reached an end'. He's correct with the later statement, so why did he make an incorrect statement at first? 12:06 He means 'how that worked out in Hong Kong' (not Taiwan)
@seemuchsaylittle8842
8 ай бұрын
Isn't the more objective question 'Why Taiwan can't declare independence despite a pro independence president being elected'? Just saying.......
@Renegade-Master-88
8 ай бұрын
I think it has more to do.with the water in the rockers
@Do-not-be-sheep
8 ай бұрын
Taiwan does not belong to China anymore than Tibet does Except for a period when taiwan was ruled by japan and the Manchu mongol empire taiwan has been and independent nation. If China owns taiwan than Tibet owns most of China and Mongolia owns the rest of china
@spyderativ2438
8 ай бұрын
I don’t think invasion is in the piping in less Taiwan declare independence. China has time on its side so why rush.
@notme943
7 ай бұрын
He just casually mention nuclear weapon hvis what about the doctrines? Its exactly because of those screenarios that doctrine exist. In this case, I dont see how it will come to that point.
@aaseulimoen6038
8 ай бұрын
THANKS for using good microphones 😊😊
@user-oq1oc4qx4p
2 ай бұрын
Taiwan and Penghu are leftover issues from World War II. See Treaty of San Francisco. At the time, the U.S. government helped the Chinese Nationalist Party (Republic of China), which had been defeated in the Chinese Civil War, escape to Taiwan, which was then a Japanese colony. Look at Formosa betrayed. Formosa is the original name of Taiwan. After the Chinese Kuomintang came to Taiwan, it still maintained dictatorial rule, but moved towards democracy under pressure from the United States, and the Taiwanese entered the Republic of China to fight for their rights. The Chinese who lost their privileges in Taiwan united with the People's Republic of China to steal Taiwan and Penghu.
@ReportsOnChina
8 ай бұрын
China (read: Beijing) is happy with the status quo and has no desire to invade. Stop warmongering, and please try to understand China better if you want to talk about it.
@jimchung1775
8 ай бұрын
The most articulate, logical, concise article on this subject that I have read. BTW- i'm a combat veteran. It also important to understand the shrinking economy, high unemployment for college grads, etc. When President Trump is re elected the China issue and a ton of big changes are gonna happen.
@Nomad-XA
8 ай бұрын
Pooh ain’t gonna do nuthin! He lacks the cojones, is all bark
@travisfago6377
8 ай бұрын
An invasion is always a possibility however a blockade is more likely than an invasion. A blockade they can do this year.
@keemeewong936
8 ай бұрын
Misleading
@DB-wg1tz
8 ай бұрын
California(US) for example, on its own governs itself pretty well. 6th largest economy worldwide. Without the US government intervention. Free economy no state owned like how China does it. China should follow. Let Taiwan become separate governed state but still China. Problem solved
@johnwhitehurst474
7 ай бұрын
"Three Gorges Dam," by attacking Taiwan bye, bye Three Georges Dam system and China. One can see this in Egypt with the Aswan Dam. Any of you think Egypt just stopped attacking Israel, NO! They were told one more time and it is gone The Aswan, and Egypt along with it!
@pj61114
8 ай бұрын
Learn from Neville Chamberlin & Winston Churchill. The Crystal Ball Dilemma.
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