Taiwan's constitution says taiwan and mainland belong to One Country.
@kenwong4182
Жыл бұрын
How absurd can it be. The US officially recognises the one China policy, yet they are selling arms n putting military advisers in Taiwan. Would they accept China selling arms and putting military advisers in one of its own States? Perhaps in Hawaii or Alaska? It is not a matter of whether one State of the US wants it but just think about the scenario. These two should read more Chinese history if they want to understand the Chinese.
@RealJustLaw
Жыл бұрын
Also, Taiwan's Constitution asserts it's a Province of China (inconvenient fact) ⚡
@alexshih3442
Жыл бұрын
One china policy is NOT one china principle
@MS-ce8nr
Жыл бұрын
@@RealJustLaw No sir.
@keyboardmanyoutube3189
Жыл бұрын
@@MS-ce8nr Yes, you can read it yourself
@MS-ce8nr
Жыл бұрын
@@keyboardmanyoutube3189 United States has stated that USA acknowledge that there is one China. The word “acknowledge” is just telling the one who made such a claim that USA has heard such a claim. But it’s not an acceptance of such a claim.
@harryloo8544
Жыл бұрын
I've liked discussion on why US are so obsessed to deny unification. If its essentially geopolitical power plays by US, then it is US that required be deterred.
@AnotherAmerican91
Жыл бұрын
It's the taiwanese who dont want reunification...
@terjeoseberg990
Жыл бұрын
Right. The commies currently occupying the mainland should give the mainland back to the legitimate government of China that’s currently residing in Taiwan.
@rickyestes
Жыл бұрын
If China controls Taiwan they will have an open access to the Pacific. Taiwan is very strategically important to the lond term security of North America.
@chunchun-maru
Жыл бұрын
@@rickyestesyou neo-con!! The USA gave Taiwan back to China and the world recognise the one-china policy. So why should USA place importance on its own interest over China and Taiwan's interest. Purely a power play by neo-cons pushing for war. Sickening and shameful behaviour.
@willsmith39
Жыл бұрын
Wow talk about spin! Obsessed with preventing reunification🙄🙄. First off after 70 plus years of Taiwan operating as a completely independent country ( I appreciate reality is massively triggering to you and so I apologize in advance) poll after poll shows Taiwanse people overwhelming don't want to be taken over and governed by the CCP. And why on earth would they? No one vaguely objective could argue that Taiwanese people's lives would be so much more pleasant as Chinese citizens.. Taiwanese enjoy not only all sorts of freedoms their mainland counterparts do not and economically they are streets ahead with Gdp per capita that's more than 300 percent higher than that in China. The last poll I saw from Chengshi university election study center found that only 1.3 percent of Taiwanese favoured reunification. So let's be clear here, we are not talking about what Taiwanese people want, we are talking about invading them and forced reunification at gun point. And the problem for America here is that they had always promises that under that scenario they would intervene. So if they don't then any remaining credibility they have is gone. So that's why, not your Wumao guff that they are "obsessed" with stopping something Taiwanese people want. That's complete garbage.
@60sandreborn
Жыл бұрын
I just hope the West stop meddling other countries’s affair, period. Of course, it will not.
@Coumei2009
Жыл бұрын
Fukuyama, is he the one who predicted a lot of wrong things?
@djung650
Жыл бұрын
Right on!
@zlatkokovach7862
Жыл бұрын
Yes, he is wrong on just about anything.
@danlan3433
Жыл бұрын
It’s about time that Taiwan is unified with the motherland. No outside interference from the USA!
@AnotherAmerican91
Жыл бұрын
Good luck
@lisa.e5776
Жыл бұрын
If USA is in the place of China, they will surely get Taiwan by force 50 years ago. I admire China for its political patient and peaceful approach towards Taiwan. The world is aware of USA playing double down on China in Taiwan case likewise in Ukraine. More and more people are disagree with the dirty games of USA to lead the world towards Wars and disasters.
@terjeoseberg990
Жыл бұрын
Right. The commies currently occupying the mainland should give the mainland back to the legitimate government of China that’s currently residing in Taiwan.
@pepe-taylor
Жыл бұрын
Taiwan does not need China at all.
@dmvpho1355
Жыл бұрын
bullshit Taiwan is a country
@tz8662
Жыл бұрын
Will US really want to get involved? Think about Korean War and Vietnam war,,,,,,
@davisoneill
5 ай бұрын
Indeed, not to mention how the US Military was defeated by men and boys with old Soviet rifles in Afghanistan - and the colossal defeat and humiliation the US is now suffering in the Ukraine.
@igolfer
Жыл бұрын
It is a shame that Fukuyama is a war monger now. I guess his scholar side is not working very well because his theory about Western dominance since the collapse of the former Soviet Union is collapsing itself. Out of frustration and drainage of his mental power, he turns to war mongering as if he found a new way of Western super power.
@FloofyMinari
Жыл бұрын
Well, when China threatens to invade another country. You have to take a stance. Either you hide in a corner and ignore it, or you stand up for what is right which is to support Taiwan and your own country
@looneypirate3462
Жыл бұрын
@@FloofyMinari So the People's Republic of China the government on the mainland is threatening to invade the Republic of China the government on Taiwan?
@mikef6399
Жыл бұрын
@@FloofyMinari Need to get your fact straight. Taiwan is NOT a country based on its own constitution and UN. Apparently you didn't even listen carefully to what Oriana Mastro described the relationship between China and Taiwan (its official name is Republic of China). It is the result of an unfinished civil war where the defeated party fled to Taiwan, a province of China then and now. The winning party led by the communist party has the duty to finish the unfinished business either peacefully (preferred option by the mainland) or by force when pushed by the US. It is as simple as that!
@FloofyMinari
Жыл бұрын
@Logan M the UN doesn't get to decide whether a country is a country. Taiwan is a country with its own laws, economy, military, and society. In what ways is Taiwan not a country? The PRC has never ruled over Taiwan. The PRC has no right to terrorize and threaten the lives of modern Taiwanese which they have NEVER ruled over. Taiwan has EVERY right to choose its own destiny and defend itself from a foreign power. Simple as that.
@looneypirate3462
Жыл бұрын
@@FloofyMinari try telling that to Spain during the Catalonia independence referendum
@PankajGupta-kc4jq
Жыл бұрын
Which Chinese is she talking about? Chinese from PRC or Chinese from ROC? Both PRC and ROC claim own both mainland China and Taiwan island.
@qingzhou9983
Жыл бұрын
The problem with increasing deterrence/force is the Fact US will lose a Arm Race with China. China currently only spend 1.2% of GDP on military. If China double or even triple to 3.6%, it is just matches US current spending level. And US needs to go over 10% of GDP. This is not possible under the current debt, deficit, and voter polarization level.
@FloofyMinari
Жыл бұрын
It's definitely possible, especially against China. Recent polls see Americans' negative view of China as high as 80%. Tackling China receives bipartisan support in Congress. During the Cold War, the US defense spending was over half of what it is today. China's continued aggression has made them unpopular on the world stage. You assume the rest of the world will sit idle. It's the same mistake Russia made. Together with Allies, we can overmatch China, Today and even more so in the near future.
@HTeo-og1lg
Жыл бұрын
In WW2, Japan and Germany learned the hard lesson that it is dangerous to underestimate your enemy. Never let the temptation of hubris, and arrogance to make you too optimistic about any outcomes in a war. Remember, China should always heed the advice of Deng Xiaoping to "bide your time". When China finally is cornered or coerced to reunify the Motherland to finally wipe away the last vestige of China's Century of Humiliation by the 8 Western nations, which included Japan, USA, Germany, France, Great Britain, etc., China ought to be 99.9% sure that in various scenarios, the outcome is still a win. Else, don't' do anything that is below anything that is a >98% certainty. Listen also to what Deng implied, and that is "time is on China's side". ps. As a Huaqiao, and some who is proud to inherit the heritage of my forefathers, I really hope that China would be wise, grounded, and prudently patient, to make sure that this potentially last and only attempt to end the Century of Humiliation of the Chinese, be one that has only one outcome - Success. It will be an extreme tragedy if it fails due to be pride, impatience, or lack of knowledge of the nature of wars (which is that it has always been full of unexpected smaller events due to the natural and human actions). pps. Japan is outwardly a polite nation, but she is capable to the deeds of Unit 731 in the past, and hence, be forewarned that "outward behaviour is not a reliable indication", when surmising national characteristics.
@lft141
Жыл бұрын
China increasing military budget? China is already in a lot of debt and running out of cash. That is why China only spends 1.2% of its GDP because they can't afford any higher. Try to research "All Inclusive wealth" of China and US." You will be surprised by the gap. Your suggestion of increasing Chinese military budget would be difficult unless you are willing to sacrifice the well-being of the general populace who are under financial stresses at the moment, i.e., compound that problem with increasing unemployment rate due to decoupling in trades with US, Chinese real estate debt, problem caused by Zero Covid policy, & demographic problem, etc. Speaking of demographic problem, the age group of Chinese and Taiwanese people who will most likely be casualties of this war would be in the young to middle-aged group (mostly working age group at their peak). The ones who are going to be heavily involved in this war are Chinese and Taiwanese people who will end-up killing each other. Chinese to US death ratio here is well in favour of US because of tactical involvement (indirect involvement of US). No one wins in war only losers. Consider this outcome with having Chinese current ageing demography in mind.China increasing military budget? China is already in a lot of debt and running out of cash. That is why China only spends 1.2% of its GDP because they can't afford any higher. Try to research "All Inclusive wealth of China and US." You will be surprised by the gap. Your suggestion of increasing Chinese military budget would be difficult unless you are willing to sacrifice the well-being of the general populace who are under financial stresses at the moment, i.e., compound that problem with increasing unemployment rate due to decoupling in trades with US, Chinese real estate debt, problem caused by Zero Covid policy, & demographic problem, etc. Speaking of demographic problem, the age group of Chinese and Taiwanese people who will most likely be casualties of this war would be in the young to middle-aged group (mostly working age group at their peak). The ones who are going to be heavily involved in this war are Chinese and Taiwanese people who will end-up killing each other. Chinese to US death ratio here is well in favour of US because of tactical involvement (indirect involvement of US). No one wins in war only losers. Consider this outcome with having Chinese current ageing demography in mind.
@Bk6346
Жыл бұрын
@@lft141 China has nearly 60 times the population of Taiwan’s 23.5 million people. If it’s a war of attrition Taiwan would run out of soldiers way before China.
@MRTY323
Жыл бұрын
Deterrence is kicking the can down the road. USA has deterred China for more than seven decades, but China remains committed to finishing its civil war, and has since acquired the means to finish it. Find solutions, don't fund deterrence. Actively encourage both sides to resolve things peacefully, before this blows up in everyone's face.
@fargr5926
Жыл бұрын
It was until mid of 70's, ROC in Taiwan still sent jet planes over mainland sky. It's not 7 decades for mainland only.
@RealJustLaw
Жыл бұрын
Taiwan's Constitution asserts it's a Province of China (inconvenient fact) ⚡
@josephguo3429
Жыл бұрын
@@fargr5926 and now?
@fargr5926
Жыл бұрын
@@josephguo3429 now you figure out yourself.
@blanchjoe1481
Жыл бұрын
The largest unspoken question in the room, is "..would the Taiwanese people fight the PLA if invaded..." Polls have developed numbers that range from as low as 35 percent yes, to as high as 60 percent yes. However as an argument lets use the lowest percentage of 25 percent of the Taiwanese Males between the ages of 18 - 45 would fight. That would be approximately a staggering 1.85 Million individuals. Poorly armed and improperly trained, but an insurgent force of significant proportions on their home ground. Assuming that, and assuming the success of PLA performing the greatest seaborne amphibious invasion in the history of the warfare, ( a debatable concept ), the PLA would need to transport, supply and arm 300,000 troops ( twice the D-Day Invasion ). And assuming the US did not put boots on the ground, the PLA would still be in a the middle of a vast national insurgency that would create significant costs of Blood and Treasure to China, destroying the cream of the PLA, and an open bleeding wound politically, financially, and militarily for years into the future, and possible could even topple Xi Jinping and his supporters within the CCCP.
@davisoneill
5 ай бұрын
I always laugh when I hear Yanks trying to console themselves with this nonsense. Your empire is being flushed down the toilet of history. You have been defeated and humiliated in Iraq - in Afghanistan - and now you have been utterly defeated and humiliated in the Ukraine. Even the Palestinians are defeating you. Only a matter of time until you are driven from Taiwan and the South China Sea. Indeed, the way things are going, the USA may not even exist in 30 years time.
@itsme-nt6yu
Жыл бұрын
Have Japanese 100% for the first 14days (13')? Japan doesn't have to worry about getting heavily retaliated?
@evelynn_teoh
Жыл бұрын
ya exactly! who would be so stupid ?? and what for?!
@strat0caster124
Жыл бұрын
That's where I stopped listening, can't believe a Stanford "expert" is saying bs like that. It was the US that deprived Japan of its sovereign and military integrity since WWII, how she could ever think that Japan has an "army" they can toss into the Taiwan Strait is beyond me. Is she expecting the Japanese to send out their Jieitai (literally self-defense force) to do it, to go to war with China, and all of this is only to do the US a favor?? Mind boggling. If I were a Japanese with any nationalist vision, I'd say that if PRC attacks Taiwan, then this is a good chance for Japan to "normalize" the country. Just wave the flags and cheer on the sidelines, but don't actually put anything into the fight, and kick the US military and their bases out of Japan once and for all. That I think is a much more realistic logic than assisting TW (or more likely the US) simply because "I'm a stubborn ideologue for liberal democracy".
@slicktires2011
Жыл бұрын
It' s called "cannon fodder".
@RealJustLaw
Жыл бұрын
Will the United States invade Rhode Island, or will Canada invade Quebec? 🤔
@kit888
Жыл бұрын
Does Quebec have an army? Does Quebec participate in electing Canada's prime minister?
@YaPingWong
Жыл бұрын
@@kit888 If Quebec forms its own army, and elect its own president, will Canada invade Quebec?
@joylove8693
Жыл бұрын
Very good question Justin.
@alexshih3442
Жыл бұрын
Taiwan had never been part of China.
@RealJustLaw
Жыл бұрын
@@kit888 it had one in the past before it incorporated into Canada Corporation.
@jossdionne9810
Жыл бұрын
A look-alike of Kristia Freeland, she scared me.
@colinlee9678
Жыл бұрын
Deterrence is effective only when it is from the party in the right to the party in the wrong but not the other way round! No amount of deterrence made by an already wrongful party to the party on the right side of the law will deter the rightful owner from lawfully recover its stolen property!
@terjeoseberg990
Жыл бұрын
Right. The commies currently illegally occupying the mainland should give the mainland back to the legitimate government of China that’s currently residing in Taiwan.
@jimyardon5262
Жыл бұрын
Yep it happened to the Indigenous people not forgetting Slavery.
@MS-ce8nr
Жыл бұрын
Taiwan has every right to be free.
@colinlee9678
Жыл бұрын
@@MS-ce8nr Being free is one thing but the land on which they are living freely as tenants, legally belongs to China as the legal owner and landlord! If you are conversant with Chinese history Taiwan is a Chinese island province stolen from it by the invading , landgrabbing and colonisng Japanese in1858 , was surrendered by the defeated Japanese at the end of WW2 to the US which blocked its return to China! If you are a person who fully and duly respect the criminal law as practised all over the world , I am sure you will agree that the law requires any stolen property to be returned to the owner from whom it was stolen!
@terjeoseberg990
Жыл бұрын
@@MS-ce8nr, Yeah, but does China? Or should the Commies who are illegally occupying the mainland vacate and give the mainland back to the government of China that currently resides in Taiwan?
@AnnieT369
Жыл бұрын
Will US attack Hawaii?
@zhechunlou2319
Жыл бұрын
She said herself it’s an unfinished civil war. I wonder if she thinks the union invaded the south in 1860’s😅
@jiaxinchen6467
Жыл бұрын
They're always hypocritical with double standards everywhere.
@snorttroll4379
Жыл бұрын
War of northern aggression. The north did invade. They had declared themselves independent. With taiwan, they are in fact a separate country.
@pewpewpewpew7467
Жыл бұрын
This was interesting, definitely worth the time!
@chunchun-maru
Жыл бұрын
Sickening neo-cons, honestly shameful to see this country justify war.
@BeelP.
Жыл бұрын
I notice there seems to be an assumption of complete Taiwanese will to fight a Chinese invasion. This is a weak link. Parents of Taiwan servicemen are known to tell their children to simply surrender if the PLA invades. Don't underestimate the unwillingness of Taiwanese servicemen to fight an army of essentially their own countrymen. The bond of common cultural heritage, kinship and a resignation to the futility of resistance in the longer term will trigger a lack of will to fight for Taiwan's armed forces.
@evelynn_teoh
Жыл бұрын
The Taiwanese themselves may not want it. Most likely scenario is.. their military surrenders and just let it happen! BUT.. before long they'd get very uncomfortable w/ the new political climate. And then bickering n infighting will start again forever and ever amen.
@georgebratina9394
Жыл бұрын
LOL, Comrade Beel, Putin thought the same of the Ukrainians.
@jiaxinchen6467
Жыл бұрын
There are youtubers interview young men on the street in Taiwan; when asked if they want to fight in such a war, 8 or 9 out of 10 say they won't.
@jiaxinchen6467
Жыл бұрын
Many members of the current ruling DPP and their families didn't serve, aren't serving, and/or won't serve in the army in Taiwan. They basically hope: 1) US will get involved directly if the war occurs, and 2) those young men from other Taiwanese families will fight to the end.
@NorCalMoDo
Жыл бұрын
@@evelynn_teoh are you talking about Trump and Biden?
@ideally6849
Жыл бұрын
When your enemy is making mistakes, don’t stop them.
@jiaxinchen6467
Жыл бұрын
This is why you guys better focus on solving your mounting domestic issues before it's too late. And stirring up troubles elsewhere might not help at all, such as the trade war.
@accountantthe3394
Жыл бұрын
@@jiaxinchen6467 🤫
@MS-ce8nr
Жыл бұрын
@@jiaxinchen6467 the trade war on protecting the rights and interests of USA is exactly the right thing to do.
@jiaxinchen6467
Жыл бұрын
Really? Are they winning? But I guess you don't know and you don't know why.
@NorCalMoDo
Жыл бұрын
@@MS-ce8nr yes, absolutely. Go trade war! It speeds up the inflation though. For the freedom and democracy sake, it's worthied.
@jdzentrist8711
Жыл бұрын
I question the unstated premise of this discussion--that Taiwan is our business. I wonder, in addition, What do the majority of the Taiwan people want?.... It would have been nice to hear some specific reasons, maybe four points, why we, over here, need to be so concerned about this far-away (unfinished) civil war. For me it's not altogether an abstract question. My father served in the Marine Corps in China in 1946-1947 (I was told he was a baker, but ready to defend Americans if necessary.) At present I'm reading Frank Dikotter's history of those years (1945-1957). In addition, I watch a lot of CGTN and have kind of fallen in love with the Chinese people. (And the CCP, now led by Xi, deserves at least some credit for the "China Miracle.") But mainly, I'm an American citizen concerned about our foreign policy. I've read Frank's "America at the Crossroads." I agree with that. It appears that this is another crossroad. I guess at present I agree with Frank that Xi, the pragmatist, will not start this thing because of "the principle of the thing." But suppose he does, and suppose he is successful. Not only is he not a Putin; he is not a Mao (even though Steven Kotkin called him a "nasty" leader). Gordon Chang writes about the "coming collapse of China." That has proven wrong. Now Chang is on TV predicting WWIIi! Hopefully, that will also prove wrong any time soon. Here's my MEMO to Taiwan and China: drawing upon Confucian wisdom and contemporary "Chinese characteritstics," work out a separate peace that invites the USA to MIND ITS OWN BUSINESS. We have 100 gun deaths PER DAY in this country. We have 100k overdoses PER YEAR. We have fourth-graders who still cannot read or write or do basic math. We still have very graphic (on TV every night) fundamental issues of HUMAN RIGHTS: rampant violence, mobs storming stores. We have incredible, unbelievable instances, not of PUBLIC SAFETY, not of PUBLIC ORDER--but of escalating violence and disorder that nothing will ever be done about. Yet we want to universalize our "western values."
@biglemoncoke
Жыл бұрын
Who is "we"?
@mikef6399
Жыл бұрын
JD, very well said and concerns are definitely valid. However, I am convinced the very reason of US' meddling in other country's business in every corner of the world is indeed for US' own interest: to maintain and prolong US hegemony as long as it can. Our living standard is so much depended on US hegemony. We can print money as much as we want or sanction any country that won't obey our order. Well, China is the one that is trying to challenge US, so too bad, we have to "take care" of them. If it were not Taiwan, we will find some other excuses to knock them down. It has nothing to do with how people in Taiwan think much less the 1.4 billion people living on the mainland.
@jojolloren3642
Жыл бұрын
You cannot compromise with these communists they are traitors in every angle how can you deal snakes when you have one in your own backyard before feed them give them shelter you even raised its offspring now its your biggest nightmare so you have to cut its head before ot bites you.
@jkatlantic1
Жыл бұрын
You have a right to your view. Please integrate to China, where you will be happy to live under that system.
@biglemoncoke
Жыл бұрын
@@jkatlantic1 I’m very happy under the Western democratic system though.
@mineralmedia888
Жыл бұрын
Fantastic interview. Keep up the great work.
@rickyestes
Жыл бұрын
I think you aren’t looking at energy requirements. They would go dark within six months. We still rule the oceans.
@dpb5802
Жыл бұрын
I think you guys a certifiable. What is the actual reason the US would want to become embroiled in the ongoing Civil War where one side has, to all intents and purposes, lost.
@Pau-tc9wj
Жыл бұрын
Good content but I had to click on the cc button as Oriana's voice gets quieter at the end of every sentence.
@srbislavn
Жыл бұрын
Since history ended can't figure out what they are talking about.... Oh , maybe end of a history guy decided to write new one.....
@gastonbess9469
Жыл бұрын
Yes when the time is right ❤
@marcwhite6267
Жыл бұрын
Finally a sober, truly-realistic take. Pay heed; she knows way more about the issue than Kissinger and Graham Allison do.
@mrou871
Жыл бұрын
She certainly knows more than Peter Zeihan :)
@marcwhite6267
Жыл бұрын
@@mrou871 Not a fan of neither Zeihan nor Bremmer. The fact of the matter is that there are people in the current administration - as there were in the previous administration - who possess the most comprehensive knowledge of the Taiwan situation. They know that without a direct involvement from the US the island won't stand a month against the enemy. Any yet they give advice, which they know full well shall lead to the speedy capture of the island by the enemy. A question arises - whose side are they one?
@marcwhite6267
Жыл бұрын
@@mrou871 Ukraine got invaded because Graham Allison had made certain there would be no nukes to defend Ukraine from a possible invasion. Now Graham Allison is giving advice on how to lose Taiwan in the shortest possible time. Not only the island, but also all of our state-of-the-art military equipment, which he suggests we "send there to turn the island into a porcupine". I'd say he wants China not only to take the island without a fight, but also reverse-engineer the bulk of our military technologies.
@randomdude7384
Жыл бұрын
@@marcwhite6267 Allison, Rudd, and Dalio : those are the three big China "watchers".
@jennylee685
Жыл бұрын
@@marcwhite6267 Taiwan still hasn’t received any of the outdated weapons that that silly lady Tsai Ing-Wen spent billions to buy & she’s already planning to put out more money to buy more outdated weapons so the U.S. can stockpile newer more advanced weapons. Do you think the U.S. is stupid to sell Taiwan state of the art weapons? That’ll be the day! Someone from the US military side already commented US will always reserve the better ones for the western allies & of course only the state of the art for herself. Taiwan, Japan, Philippines are nothing but launching pads & porcupines!
@pizizhangsg1319
Жыл бұрын
Even MacArthur got it wrong 70+ years ago that if China would send in the aemy in korea, i don't think this scholar will get it right now.
@bowlampar
Жыл бұрын
Beijing understands even American prepared to directly military involve in China -Taiwan war, the process still has to move in phases, this sort of security assistance just not going to happen instantly. If Xi Jinping calculated he can capture Taiwan in a matter of week or in day less than that, it would be a risk worth taking to his 'national rejuvenation' agenda, raises his 'divine' status among Chinese population and hardcore supporters.
@DanielBernoulli-x7w
Жыл бұрын
Despite the emphasis that their goal is to prevent war, they completely ignore the Chinese perspective that the door to peaceful reunification is closing as US is following out the One China principle and tacitly supporting Taiwan's pro-independence party. What is obvious to everyone with some knowledge of China is that China will be compelled to use force when the door to peaceful reunification is seen to be closed, even if it risks derailing the Chinese economy. Without reassurance to China that US still accepts the One China principle and does not support Taiwan independence, more and more deterrence will only convince the Chinese that the door to peaceful reunification is closing at a faster pace than before, which will lead to the very war that Mastro and Fukuyama claim that they want to prevent. It's hard to believe that they do not understand this point. The fact that they totally ignore this point suggests that their chief concern is not about preventing war, but about preventing China from replacing the US as the regional hegemon.
@jimyardon5262
Жыл бұрын
The Americas is all Indigenous L A N D that's History
@byronskoretz7650
Жыл бұрын
This organism is living in a fantasy land. Should be muzzled.
@FusRoDahRico
Жыл бұрын
Personally I had a lot of respect for Prof. Oriana Skylar Mastro. Perhaps a scholarly background lended her a more balanced and empathetic lens to approach such issue. However the proposition of deterrence might only lead further down the path of a Thucydides's trap, nullifying the peace-suing reasoning she seemed to suggest.
@BslmUSA
Жыл бұрын
like War hawks talking
@NorCalMoDo
Жыл бұрын
IFJapan dares to fight China when it moves on Taiwan, that would mean a gift to the Chinese people who have been waiting for the reason of revenge.
@sfl3073
Жыл бұрын
Why does US need to talk about deterrence when the China/ Taiwan issue is STRICTLY a domestic one.? TAKE YOUR HANDS OFF AMERICA ! stop being a busy body - go solve your own problems - which btw are numerous !!! Do you not see that banking / real estate crisis is brewing at your shore. !! Hugh Hugh financial crisis brewing in America - how about homelessness n the degradation of your family structure … so get your acts together America n stop meddling in China domestic issue !
@MS-ce8nr
Жыл бұрын
Why should there be a so called reunification in the first place? Taiwan is where the government of the Republic of China (ROC) resides after a bloody civil war. ROC came into being in 1912 after overthrowing the great Chin empire (GCE). Taiwan became a part Japanese territory after the war between Japan and GCE in 1895. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) didn’t come into being until 1949 after a bloody civil war. Taiwan was given to ROC by the United States after World War II in 1945. So on what basis that PRC claim Taiwan as its territory? Taiwan was named by the Dutch as Formosa and was governed by the Dutch in 1624-1662. Dutch was the earliest known foreign occupier ever took hold and established a governing body in Taiwan.
@olderchin1558
Жыл бұрын
Oriana is too absorbed with the details to see the overall picture. The relationship between US and China is already screwed. The US is already decoupling from China and is at war with China, the US has done everything it can economically and technologically to weaken and damage China's economy and international standing. The US is also provoking China militarily very chance it gets. In return China is preparing for war, it has establish food and fuel stock piles. And has worked to establish an international trading relationship for after the war. Modernised and build the biggest navy in Asia. It intends to triple its nuclear missiles and deployed hypersonic weapons. It is in the midst of upgrading its airforce as well. China is not deterred, it is pissed. A war between US and China is inevitable, the US is making Taiwan and Japan a torn in China's side. Japan is just history that needs to be resolved and they are just too dumb to stay out of the way.
@findbridge1790
7 ай бұрын
does Taiwan have hypersonic missiles from Russia?
@alexhu7939
Жыл бұрын
This is the trouble with Oriana and a-likes . They ideologies are formed without actual knowledge of China and Taiwan. Taiwan has less than half of it people want to go independent as a country, and it’s government ruled by DPP is corrupt and exercise dictatorship. Ask any one t on the Taipei street, did it or did it not shut dow TV station that criticizes government? Is it common for police to “interview” ordinary citizens when they express dissatisfaction with the government?
@nickshaffer8115
Жыл бұрын
I wish they had talked about the weeks leading up to such an invasion, because the preparation on the Chinese side would be unmissable from the sky, and we would have a good idea they were going to attack in the same way we could see the Russian buildup. So in that time, will we not be sending more ships and guns to the region? Estimates are that it would take China a year to prepare for this. What are we doing in that interval?
@qingzhou9983
Жыл бұрын
You can. But PRC could easily maintain the high alert or readiness for months and US could not just stay there since it has security need in other areas. In short if US does not at least double the military budget and permanently station a lot more Navy and air force in Asia, it could not win the War with China in Taiwan strait.
@terjeoseberg990
Жыл бұрын
@@qingzhou9983, All of China’s ships would sink before making it across the strait.
@jkatlantic1
Жыл бұрын
If the world sanctions China the way the world sanctioned Russia, the Chinese would starve in the dark
@duuuu1234
Жыл бұрын
Just check China's military exercise laster year August. The amount of military assets were mobilized only after Nancy landed, 2 to 3 daya. Sure actually amphibious assault requre much much bigger force but given the speed and location China will be ready way before US getting ready plus traveling across the ocean
@chunchun-maru
Жыл бұрын
@@terjeoseberg990 question is whether the USA want to eat nukes
@asiaone999
Жыл бұрын
China and Taiwan share the same civilization of at least 5,000 years old , and you ask a foreigner./gwailow/caucasian/person who has one dimensional view on Asia on the chinese problem , YOU MAKE ME LAUGH , HELLO! ASK A CHINESE FROM SINGAPORE, INDONESIA ,MALAYSIA OR THAILAND , THEY CAN EXPLAIN BETTER ... good lord!
@ГлебВерховский-п2р
Жыл бұрын
Go away, Communist troll
@serge_mann
Жыл бұрын
Oriana is a true proffessional !!! Great explanations of current state. Thank you
@kenhuang1045
Жыл бұрын
Well, the History was: ROC was established in1912 and ruled until 1949 in the Mainland ; ROC had 99% contributed in fighting the Japanese Imperial Invasion of China at huge Cost and US had withheld support then after WW2. The result was ROC had to moved to Taiwan to survive ! And PRC had organized a huge Naval Offensive under the General Commander 叶飞 into Taiwan ; but it turned out that his Advanture was 100% failure …… ''全军复没"!! Taiwan was under ROC since 1912 ……历史之真/Truth will hardly be changed by Will or Wishes ! !!
@spacefan4ever
Жыл бұрын
You didn't get the history right. Japan owned Taiwan, from Ching Dynasty (a foreign occupier of China), until US defeated Japan with 2 nuclear bombs. In San Francisco Treaty, Japan only stated it gave up ownership of Taiwan. Taiwanis sovereignty is still undecided, mostly due to suppression from ROC, US, and now PRC. In 1949 ROC was granted to retreat to Taiwan to "govern" by the allies (led by US). Till today, ROC still is a government in exile occupying Taiwan, disregard sometimes Taiwanese becomes its President. According international laws, ROC cannot claim Taiwan's sovereignty. It's always residing in the hands of Taiwanese.
@frankwang8551
Жыл бұрын
The vast majority of Chinese people would sacrifice economic future for taking taiwan back.
@ГлебВерховский-п2р
Жыл бұрын
What a stupid attitude
@waynegore5291
Жыл бұрын
Fukuyama: Carpenter's work is more interesting for you.
@keli4068
Жыл бұрын
if Japan don't allow US to use her base。 American is toasted
@keli4068
Жыл бұрын
deterrence is very hard for US, on ppp term Chinese GDP is already greater then US. Plus US need global presents。 Plus Chinese industrial base is much larger than US。 China can always out produce US and more focus on Taiwan
@ekayonosuwito3298
Жыл бұрын
USA AMERICA, NO MORE WORLD POLICE. 👎👎👎
@findbridge1790
7 ай бұрын
poor speaker, audio provided by local school for the deaf
@edisonone
Жыл бұрын
Adrenaline rising and temperature keep building…
@alanccvoo
Жыл бұрын
You want peace n not war, tell the Taiwanese to forget about independence and remain status quo. They are only able to talk about independence is because of the US government giving them guarantees of protection.
@jiaxinchen6467
Жыл бұрын
The current ruling DPP government has been doing everything to change/control people mindim in Taiwan, e.g., they changed their history books used in schools, control the media, use tax $ to support censorship army to spread misinformation or lies and bully people with different opinions. Even so, the majority of people there want to maintain the status quo and don't want a proxy war.
@larryholou
Жыл бұрын
Very bias interview. First, it isn’t only the CCP says “NO” for Taiwan to become an independent country, but the entire 1.4 billion average Chinese people and Chinese descendent. I care less about CCP or ROC, but the island of Taiwan has been a part of China for hundreds of years. Also, what really justify sending our brothers and sisters from US to fight a war that doesn’t beyond to us? Let’s spend the billions of dollars we waste in military weapons on our own under-served citizens and Americans - better education, lower debts, and investment in our young people.
@ГлебВерховский-п2р
Жыл бұрын
Who is intetrested in what Chinese propaganda is saying? You are not objective.
@yangjianguo1848
Жыл бұрын
Let's have peace and no war, please! The Chinese people living on both sides of the Taiwan Strait don't want the region to become another "war- torn Ukraine" IMO, the govt. of PRC🇨🇳 will not take military action to evict the governing authority of ROC(Taiwan)🇹🇼 from the Taiwan region of CHINA .... if the present "one CHINA" status quo across the Taiwan Strait is being upheld & maintained .... a) by respecting & abiding to the UN Resolution of 2758 b) by respecting & abiding to the Joint Communique of PRC & US wherein the US acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is part of China. c) by respecting and payIng heed to US' advice that US do not support "Taiwan independence" (to become a sovereign nation, separate from being part of CHINA) d) by agreeing to negotiate for a peaceful reunification on the following basis :- a) 1 CHINA, 1 system b) 1 CHINA, 2 systems c) 1 CHINA, federal system = "1992 consensus" d) other type of 1 CHINA with any system as mutually agreed. The Taiwan question of reunification is an internal domestic issue to be resolved peacefully by the Chinese people themselves
@ongchinlam4631
Жыл бұрын
United States aircraft carrier are like grandfather and grandmother class not fit for boxing anymore. Okay
@snorttroll4379
Жыл бұрын
When will xi resign from mainland taiwan
@konniko1832
Жыл бұрын
A BIG No! Taiwan President has BALLS to counter China's threat.
@short-leggedturtle1315
Жыл бұрын
Japan actually is key.
@wanghui562
Жыл бұрын
Japan, like India, wants China and the U.S. to fight and diminish each other. Japan is interested in illegally remilitarizing itself after its WWII defeat, not defending Taiwan, or fighting China.
@Samson373
Жыл бұрын
On average, about 9,500 Americans die every day. It would be a complete disaster to lose Taiwan to China and we should keep numbers like the 9,500 per day in mind when considering whether defending Taiwan is worth risking the lives of, say, 15,000 US sailors, pilots or soldiers. We should also ask ourselves: what is the point in spending almost a trillion dollars a year on the military if we are too afraid of losses to use it?
@chunchun-maru
Жыл бұрын
That is a zero sum mind set. USA has a tarnished reputation and fumbled on all foreign invasions. The modern world with the transparency of the internet people can see that USA is purposely pushing for war like the 8 nation alliance in the century of humiliation. It's sickening to see neo-cons pushing for wars everywhere in the world.
@benitochia8623
Жыл бұрын
Is it not stupid to talk about war and victory? What victory? Talk instead about the dire consequences to US and China if war happened. Russia and India would be very.happy.
@tonytan6547
Жыл бұрын
American wishfulthinking !
@jeromebesson
Жыл бұрын
When the US unloaded the Chinese KMT on Japanese Taiwan, Taiwan was Japanese territory, albeit an occupied one like the whole of Japan. And on April 28, 1952, Japanese Taiwan became American Taiwan, a protectorate or an "unincorporated territory" of the US hiding in plain sight. The period between the 1945 surrender of Japan and the April 28, 1952 true end of the Pacific War, is a period of occupation. Occupation does not mean annexation. An international treaty must take place to validate transfer of sovereignty. The Chinese on Taiwan blissfully ignored international law, and with a nod from an arrogant US-DOS, declared Japanese Taiwan already Chinese. The Truman administration seemed to go along with the Chinese claim and even to contemplate with equanimity Red China's take-over until January 1950. But the invasion of South-Korea by the North prompted President Truman to declare the Strait of Formosa a neutral zone on June 27, 1950. In his declaration, President Truman added that "a decision on the ultimate international status of Taiwan must await the signing of an international treaty." In the September 8, 1951 Treaty of Peace with Japan signed in San Francisco between 48 allied powers and Japan, the latter was only compelled to renounce the sovereignty of Taiwan without naming any receiving power. Japan lost the sovereignty of Taiwan. China did not receive it. Neither the inexistent Government of the People of Taiwan received it. China has no legal claim to Taiwan. Taiwan has not been part of China. Taiwan is not separated from China. Taiwan used to be part of Japan. Taiwan is currently separated from Japan. The peaceful way to defend Taiwan is to chuck the political Taiwan and return to the legal Taiwan. What is "political Taiwan"? Following the July 1971 secret Chou-Kissinger talks and at Chou's demand, the issue of the "undetermined international status of Taiwan" has been mothballed and Nixon acknowledged that "the Chinese on both banks of the Strait of Taiwan agree that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China". That is the "political Taiwan", of the US's "One China" policy, used to deal with China. Nevertheless, the buried "legal Taiwan" remains valid. The legal Taiwan, instead reminds us that since the San Francisco Peace Treaty came into force on April 28, 1952, US-DOS used to regularly brief Congress on the "undetermined international status of Taiwan". That was the US position on Taiwan until July 1971. What prevents the US from unearthing the "legal Taiwan"? Since the 1952 Sino-Japanese Treaty of Taipei, an appendage of the San Francisco Peace Treaty, the Chinese Nationalists on Taiwan were informed through diplomatic channels that if they controlled Taiwan, they did not enjoy the sovereignty of Taiwan. The Chinese Nationalists enjoyed control over rebel Chinese territory Kinmen and Matsu. However, they remained a junior occupying power and agents of the "principal occupying power", i.e., the US on Taiwan. And on April 28, 1952, Japanese Taiwan became American Taiwan, a protectorate or an "unincorporated territory" of the US hiding in plain sight. US-DOS and the commander-in-chief know this. But does Congress, does "The People" know about the "legal Taiwan" i.e. American Taiwan hiding under Chinese beggar's rags? Tsai Ing-wen's 2023 American Taiwan is in the same league with Manuel Quezon's 1936-46 American Philippines. You might want to call your House Representative and suggest that the issue be revisited ASAP. The weasels at US-DOS must account for their long-lasting obfuscation.
@Bk6346
Жыл бұрын
Nonsense Taiwan has been a part of China since the Qing Dynasty in 1683. That’s why 95% of Taiwan’s population is Han Chinese. Sakhalin Island, Korea was also occupied by the Japanese for more than 40 years but Korea got its independence and the Soviet Union simply took back Sakhalin Island without any treaty.
@jeromebesson
Жыл бұрын
@@Bk6346 Taiwan's population is 95% non-Chinese. The majority of Taiwan's population is of Austronesian origine. Taiwan is the cradle of Austronesian expansion throughout the Pacific and Indian oceans. A stone is called "vato", both in Formosan languages and in Malagasy. The only Chinese on Taiwan are the offspring of the 2 million Chinese the US unloaded on Japanese Formosa during WWII, when the islander population was 6 million. The tall tale of migrants fleeing China to non-Chinese Taiwan is recent and the product of Chinese KMT propaganda. Once the west abandoned slavery, the ancestors of the Chinese diaspora could not wait to flee China. And Taiwan was not their destination. Under the Manchus, the destitute, homeless, wandering laobaixing (棚民: péng mín, shack people and 客民: kè mín, guest people) of southern China used to flee China toward old "Gold Mountain" or European possessions in South-East Asia, the Indian Ocean and even Africa and the Caribbean islands. The Manchus restricted Chinese migration to non-Chinese Taiwan as they also did in Manchuria. The primary reason the Manchus had outposts set up on the west coast of Taiwan was to prevent their Chinese slaves from setting foot on Taiwan and, using Taiwan as trouble-makers nest, create trouble back home, Koxinga-style. Taiwan has never been Chinese. It was once Manchu, but only partially. The Manchus controlled only a sliver of territory on the fertile western plains along the west coast of Taiwan. For the Manchus as for the Chinese before them, "Savage" (番: fan), e.i. "foreign" Formosa was beyond the pale of Chinese culture. For this reason, Ming officials had suggested to the Dutch to settle for Formosa when the latter aimed to set up shop in Canton.
@jeromebesson
Жыл бұрын
@@Bk6346 All territories of Japan, like Taiwan, Sakhalin, were acquired by international treaties signed to conclude conflicts and those cessions by treaty were recognized by the international community, China included. China had a consulate in Taihoku, Japanese Taiwan until December 1941. Contrastingly, Chiang's Chinese KMT pretended annexing Taiwan while the KMT army was garrisoned on Japanese Taiwan with mission only to occupy Japanese Taiwan in accordance with orders from President Truman until an international treaty would validate the transfer of sovereignty. FDR had promised Japanese Taiwan to China and the administration Truman worked with Chiang's regime on such premise. Fortunately for non-Chinese Taiwan, North-Korea invaded the south and the US never recognized the sovereignty of Taiwan to China, any China whatever acronym it fancies calling itself. Japanese Korea resulted not from unfriendly annexation but from a common agreement sealed through intermarriage between the Court of Japan and that of Joseon (朝鮮). As it was the case for Japanese Taiwan, Japanese Korea saw tremendous development of its infrastructure. Left to its own weak means, a foreign invasion-prone Korean peninsula would have fallen pray to Russian territorial ambitions and the Russian presence on the peninsula was a threat to Japan's security. I don't know who you are, where you hail from, but I can sense that your understanding of history is skewed against Japan, most likely owing to the undue reach of Chinese anti-Japanese propaganda. Even woke Japan, in its media and in academia, has turned its back on Japan. Use your judgement soundly. The truth must prevail over stale war-time propaganda.
@Bk6346
Жыл бұрын
@@jeromebesson “Immigration of Han Chinese to the Penghu islands started as early as the 13th century. The main island was inhabited by a diversity of Taiwanese indigenous peoples speaking Austronesian languages until Han settlement began in the early 17th century, around the time of the Ming-Qing transition, when workers were imported from Fujian to the colony of Dutch Formosa in the southwest of Taiwan. According to governmental statistics, in the early 21st century, 95% to 97% of Taiwan's population are Han Chinese, while about 2.3% are Taiwanese of Austronesian ethnicity.[2][3] Half the population are followers of one or a mixture of 25 recognized religions.”
@jeromebesson
Жыл бұрын
@@Bk6346 A result of 70 years of Chinese KMT brainwashing, Taiwan western seaboard indigenous peoples, Pingpu (平鋪) or Plains People who had been assimilated into the Manchu Empire using Fujianese and Cantonese who are accounting for “95% to 97% of Taiwan's population are currently misconstrued as Han and Hakka Chinese. The first notable injection of immigrants from China was initiated by the Dutch in the mid-seventeenth century. Having learnt from quelling the Koxinga rebellion, the Manchus implemented strict rules against Chinese immigration. The penalty for trespassing was death. Do you think the "shack people" (棚民: péng mín), and "guest people" (客民: kè mín) of southern China were that daft? And where would have they scrounge the taels to pay for the cost of their passage to Taiwan? During the XIXth century, masses of indentured Chinese laborers went to take the place of just unshackled black slaves in America and colonial possessions of European nations. They went to Old Gold Mountain yearning to strike gold. Savage Taiwan, controlled by the Manchus on its western seaboard, was definitely not their destination. In Manchu times, the "savage" (番, fān = foreign) indigenous Pingpu (平鋪) people living on the Manchu-occupied plains of the western seaboard of Formosa were incentivized to assimilate into the culture promoted by the Manchu rulers. The assimilated natives (熟番, shú fān or assimilated foreigners) learned Fujianese or Cantonese as foreigners do, using the alphabet of their bible inherited from Dutch times to mark the pronunciation of ideograms. Those who remained beyond the reach of Manchu culture were called the "unassimilated savages" or unassimilated foreigners (生番, shēng fān) of Formosa. The "assimilated natives" (熟番, shú fān) were eager to avail themselves of every opportunity to ascend the social ladder in the Manch Empire. That meant to be able to read the Chinese Classics in preparation for passing exacting exams for access to a position in the officialdom of the Manchu empire. Once Taiwan passed under Japanese rule, the Governor-General Office of Japanese Taiwan noted in the family registry whether each family spoke Cantonese (廣, Chinese: guǎng, Japanese: kō) or Fujianese (福, Chinese: fú, Japanese: fuku) or a Formosan language. The Governor-General Office of Japanese Formosa never intended that Formosans were of Fujianese or Cantonese ancestry. It was the Chinese KMT who reinterpreted what was merely identification of language into a false Chinese genetical identity. The Chinese KMT selfish motive was to erase Japanese Formosa and supplant it with a make-believe Chinese Taiwan. In the Japanese era, the above-mentioned assimilated foreigners (熟番, shú fān) of the Manchu era accounted for more than 95% of the entire population of Taiwan. Those were Pingpu (平鋪) people who had assimilated into the Manchu Empire using Fujianese and Cantonese. Those are your misconstrued “Han Chinese, 95% to 97% of Taiwan's population in the early 21st century, according to governmental statistics.” As you well know, whether issued by the Chinese KMT stranded on non-Chinese Taiwan or the Chinese communist regime in China, official Chinese statistics are always self-serving and unreliable. In an era whenTaiwan natives are apparently at the helm, the Chinese holed up on Taiwan keeps doing their level best to advance the cause of China in the woodwork of Taiwanese democracy. And that is infuriating. The Japan educated elites who could have pretended to positions of leadership after the surrender of Japan were selected for slaughter early on by the Chinese KMT. The surviving cowered population was subjected to anti-Japanese brainwashing and coercion. The Chinese KMT dictatorship did not stop at that. The KMT also shamed the above-mentioned Manchu era assimilated foreigners (熟番, shú fān) or 95% to 97% of the Formosan population for being just that, Formosan. Everybody had to be Chinese except Gaoshan Tongbao (高山同胞), the Takasago (高砂) people of the Japanese era. One had to prove that one enjoyed a Chinese genealogy to maintain ones social status under the Chinese warlord's dictatorship. During the 1970's, if you wanted to keep up with the Jones, you had to find yourself a Chinese ancestry line originating in a corner of Fujian. The authorities facilitated that "discovery" of Chinese roots in a variety of ways. The most obvious means was the erasing from tombstones engravings showing datation according to the Japanese calendar. Families were coerced into replacing the original Japanese-style tombstones with lavish and expensive Chinese-style graves. Chinese Taiwan is a figment of the feverish imagination of Chinese nationalists holed up on Taiwan, an island of the western Pacific foreign to China until short-sighted Americans unloaded their Chinese slaves on Japanese Taiwan, thus allowing China to use those benighted Americans as promoters of Chinese irredentism toward non-Chinese Taiwan. When the Pacific War really ended on April 28, 1952, in accordance with SFPT article 23(a), Japanese Taiwan became American Taiwan, a protectorate or unincorporated territory of the US hidden in plain sight under Chinese-looking rags.
@ricktasker8248
Жыл бұрын
Great discussion. I would like to hear more about the U.S. military response to an attempted invasion of Taiwan and whether the U.S. can blockade China from receiving food and fuel imports.
@RealJustLaw
Жыл бұрын
Hi Rick, did you know Taiwan's Constitution asserts it's a Province of China? (inconvenient fact) ⚡
@jiaxinchen6467
Жыл бұрын
You are one of the warmongers!
@ricktasker8248
Жыл бұрын
@@RealJustLaw Taiwan is China. The mainland is temporarily under the control of the CCP dictatorship.
@Bk6346
Жыл бұрын
USA blocking food and fuel to China is World War 3 and the end of the planet.
@alacazaba
Жыл бұрын
#4 scenario, amphibious assault. It'S very difficult, ships highly vulnerable, even from artillery. Plus shore landing until ports can be secured will be necessary. Troops will have to bridge a distance to shore most likely. A big issue, most Chinese cannot swim. Go to a beach in China, nobody gets in the water. Same is true I would guess of the military. Once you see a big push for troops to learn aquatic skills, you know it's seriously in the pipeline. Also, Japan's Yonaguni Island only 65 mi from Taiwan, Japan is expanding a military base there, it also has an airfield. The Chinese will most likely need to attack this to deny American access.
@MrYoshigu
Жыл бұрын
Chinese civilians not able to swim is not the same as the Chinese marines not being able…your logic has so many holes
@alacazaba
Жыл бұрын
@@MrYoshigu i pointed out cn civis can't swim so unless PLA is teaching swimming en masse, it's a problem if undertaking sea borne invasion of TW. PLAN has a lot of 2 yr conscripts, 35-45% of total forces. WIth such a shortened horizon, 2 yrs and out, swimming probably isn't taught in depth, maybe not at all.
@MrYoshigu
Жыл бұрын
@@alacazaba what do you mean “swimming isn’t taught in depth”??? You either know how to swim or you don’t…soldiers aren’t Olympic divers!!! I’m sure a pre-req to being a marine is knowing how to swim…
@alacazaba
Жыл бұрын
@@MrYoshigu 20% of the US navy recruits fail navy swim test even though swimming is a graduation requirement for many state high schools and every american town has a public swimming pool, and even though it is taught in boot camp. It's that difficult - to pass as 3rd class you have to swim 450m unaided for example. Most modern NATO-esque expeditionary forces require a similar level of skills. Sailors/marines who can't swim at that level at least aren't accepted in these forces because the nature of their possible deployments will need such skills. China military has a problem in that swimming is relatively ignored as a leisure or educational domain in China. The lack of this impacts the quality of recruits heavily and given how they only are in for 2 years and the lack of soldiers taking it up after service means it's probably not dealt with at all. If this should change, it's a good indicator that China is seriously thinking about a seaborne invasion, given that it understands the hazards a seaborne landing force might encounter.
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