More than three out of four countries may have a shrinking population by the middle of the century due to “tumbling” fertility rates, research suggests.
And by 2100, more than 97% of countries - 198 out of 204 - will have fertility rates below what is necessary to sustain population size over time, according to a study published in The Lancet.
The analysis in the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors study predicts that sub-Saharan Africa will account for one in every two children born on the planet by the end of the century.
Meanwhile in Western Europe, the total fertility rate - the average number of children born to women of childbearing age - is predicted to be 1.44 in 2050, dropping to 1.37 in 2100.
In the UK, the total fertility rate was 2.19 in 1950, dropping to 1.85 in 1980 and then 1.49 in 2021.
That is well below the rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a steady population without significant immigration.
The Talk panel Kevin O’Sullivan, Esther Krakue, Isabel Oakeshott, Ed Vaizey and Emma Woolf discuss the story.
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Негізгі бет “Wrong Answer To A Real Problem!” Falling Birth Rate To Leave UK Reliant On Immigration Until 2100
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