"Picking up nickels in front of the steamroller". Then suddenly you realize the steamroller is really a train.
@whatthefunction9140
2 күн бұрын
3 month from now is when people will start saying. "I guess this time is different"
@I_am_Raziel
2 күн бұрын
XD
@ghosthdel3098
2 күн бұрын
this year is different
@Chosima
2 күн бұрын
Because, it's election year which means there is no recession this year.
@rice4u
2 күн бұрын
can we define what a recession? the small business owners I've talked to and amount closed down stores, paint a very different picture, than what politicians and media say it is. I overheard a woman at the mall telling her husband which credit card to use since all the other 3 are maxed out
@rajeshraut6447
2 күн бұрын
Initial Jobless Claims is broken because it does not include voluntary layoffs. Claims are only paid for involuntary layoffs. Most layoffs by large corporations are voluntary layoffs which is why Claims have not reflected the announced layoffs by tech giants.
@criminalelement494
2 күн бұрын
Then it’s good that is not reported. People who quit shouldn’t count.
@Dr.HowieFeltersnatch
2 күн бұрын
The chart is the chart
@squeaky_honda
2 күн бұрын
Voluntary layoffs due to "Back to the office, no more WFH" dilemmas, right?
@derbacksteinbacker4942
2 күн бұрын
Buffet going cash is probably the biggest red flag at the moment
@choski76
2 күн бұрын
He can wait a long time. He's been getting ready for a few years. What's he gonna buy? What are his targets? Banks? Finance? Tech?
@jessematheny3636
2 күн бұрын
ya Im all cash as of last week im holding hysa and seeing how this plays out.
@raphaelb7933
Күн бұрын
Luckly for you he did it on apple which is legit to cash out and 2 months before when we hadn’t proof of employment showing that the econmy is much more resilient than what all experts were thinking. So sure need cash I have a lot ready but the crisis scenario that we see everywhere excepts with global wars and the fights in Middle East that need to stop the situation is not as alarming…
@RoseBalerus
2 күн бұрын
Would love to know more about the timing between yield curve inversion and recession onset. Is there a typical lag?
@markb3866
2 күн бұрын
Unusual behavior = govt is messing with the numbers
@patmat.
2 күн бұрын
Thx for the quick reminder of the yield curve definition.
@squeaky_honda
2 күн бұрын
I wonder if things today continue to be bullish due to: - lots of retail investors (it's easier to invest/trade), propping-up the market a tiny bit - the 0% interest rates for a decade, then a massive inflation for a year, affecting the yields. - millennials turning NEET (work is pointless if you can't buy a house/etc, and you can survive with little nowadays), so you see lower unemployment % while actually fewer people are employed. - debt-ridden people taking multiple part-time jobs (skewing the jobs-reports heavily) - more people are moving away from full-time jobs, into part-time jobs (you can see it in the FED reports) Negatives: - With this inflation, companies are profiteering on the backs of customers (shrinkflation). Until people can't buy things like iPhones anymore, thus some companies take a hit. I'm probably wrong, and the indicator is still valid.
@Avo7bProject
2 күн бұрын
Plus the convenience of reporting "good" job numbers prior to the election, which can be revised retroactively after it.
@anthonybrink287
2 күн бұрын
Wouldn’t it be funny if it literally starts today
@paulm9500
2 күн бұрын
Government deficit is the largest noise in this data - How much higher can federal debt go. That's what will define the turning point
@rupertsmith6097
2 күн бұрын
Another thing to look at is the reverse repo as it runs down to nothing.
@CsondesMateHUN
2 күн бұрын
It alignes perfectly with the election and the inauguration. Something will happen relating to that.
@jwashy56
2 күн бұрын
Been saying this for months. The fed won't let a crash happen with the current administration, it would hand the white house to trump on a silver platter.
@pokergeniusordonkey6517
2 күн бұрын
I agree. It makes sense that many big players hold some big decisions until closer to the election. The holiday season is also a thing that gives more clarity to the job market.
@leonboot9312
2 күн бұрын
Probably initial panic when Trump wins or a straight up long term depression when kamala wins
@simonsays2774
2 күн бұрын
3:09 no argument. The stock market moved sideways/downwards from July 2007. The yield curve correctly predicted the recession, only the NBER labeled the wrong time of the recession. It started in July 2007, followed by another crack-up boom and then the big sell-off. The gray recession bars are not meaningful because the NBER has no clue.
@elephantmoney
2 күн бұрын
So what's the plan then Bravos?
@GeorgiZahariev
2 күн бұрын
Where can I find these charts? Is it on the Bloomberg website? Can't find them there...
@market8oracle
2 күн бұрын
Assessment of Recession Probability Next 1 Month: Probability: Low Rationale: Economic indicators like a strong stock market and declining inflation suggest continued short-term stability. Immediate recession risk is minimal. Next 3 Months: Probability: Low to Moderate Rationale: While the economy appears stable, the lagged effects of earlier rate hikes might begin to surface. However, the Fed's shift toward rate cuts could mitigate these effects. Next 6 Months: Probability: Moderate Rationale: Six months out is a window where delayed impacts of past monetary tightening may coincide with potential overreactions in financial markets. If corporate earnings falter or consumer spending declines, recession risks increase. Next 12 Months: Probability: Moderate to High Rationale: Over a year, the cumulative effects of prior rate hikes, potential market corrections, and global economic factors could elevate recession risks. The uninversion of the yield curve, historically, has sometimes preceded economic downturns.
@pristinedetailing5171
2 күн бұрын
Yield curve inverted again today for a brief moment. Who decides when we are in a recession? The man behind the curtain? History also shows oil is the trigger.
@BAT_SHooT_CRAZY
2 күн бұрын
Just short when you think it's right and if you're lucky...a recession comes in🤷♂
@simonsays2774
2 күн бұрын
Nope. The war in the Middle East distorts it. The oil price is rising again because speculators are driving it up, even though there is in fact an oversupply and it should be falling sharply. You could almost think that the Democrats instructed Israel to start this war so that the oil price would stabilize before the election.
@Avo7bProject
2 күн бұрын
I always say keep an eye on auto sales and days of inventory pipeline. Auto sales has traditionally been a good indicator entering and leaving recessions.
@mikewood8695
2 күн бұрын
I don't care when the recession starts - I'm more interested on whether the US stock market has topped - and I reckon it just has, so starting to short this new bear market!!!!
@ponyswaves8603
2 күн бұрын
It is inverted again since 1 day.... They pump the yields....
@william4202
2 күн бұрын
I wonder if long-term bond prices will continue to fall, even as the Fed continues to cut rates?
@Avo7bProject
2 күн бұрын
I think long term investors are not fooled, they will demand a return commensurate with inflation risk. Short-term, up to 3 years or so, I could see being manipulated.
@hoddtoward
2 күн бұрын
I got absolutely cooked today due to stupid hurricane hurting insurance companies lol
@JasperChambers-m1f
Күн бұрын
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
@lisagarcia3104
2 күн бұрын
I go for scenario B since I see it daily at my job, several people looking for job and we are cutting labor, on the other hand my opinion, not advice the curve will reach over 1% before everything start to plummet!
@garitboothe3413
2 күн бұрын
Your content is top notch. I love how it's data-backed, and you stay flexible in for all economic outcomes.
@Currentlyhappening2
2 күн бұрын
Caught me off guard until I saw the graphs 😂😂
@sonpollo8995
2 күн бұрын
so what does it mean now that its inverted again?
@simonsays2774
2 күн бұрын
It follows the falsified labor market data which, if calculated correctly, would have risen to 4.5% and not fallen to 4.1%. Falsified labor market data can be used to manipulate the yield curve downwards.
@deseosuho
2 күн бұрын
Just that bond investors got a little ahead of themselves positioning for rapid rate cuts, and they're now predicting slower rate cuts. All FOMC statements of the last few months suggest that hikes are over and the only open question is how fast to return to what they estimate is the neutral rate... somewhere between 2% and 4%
@Avo7bProject
2 күн бұрын
@@deseosuho That's how I see it. The current rise in rates has not spooked me out of bond holdings. I think volatility will bring us back to September's highs in bond values. Or one of the various geopolitical concerns boils too hot, and pushes a move back into the US treasury market.
@JordanDurzi
Күн бұрын
Are banks not flush with liquidity this time around? It seems they haven’t stopped lending at all
@kiaser21
2 күн бұрын
It's a lagging indicator, anywhere from 3 - 18 months
@Whatismarketingshow
2 күн бұрын
How are you videos SO WELL EDITED. IT's crazy.
@makethingshappen8427
Күн бұрын
Higher yields on short term than long term doesnt make sense and is a sign of a euphoric market.
@xinglinli9874
2 күн бұрын
Now, Chinese stock market is rising in a very fast speed. I think that’s not a good signal
@R1b-Z159-z8b
2 күн бұрын
The last euphoria before the big bang.
@XxSphinx140xX
2 күн бұрын
Great content. If u posted 10 times a day I’d still watch every single vid
@mikewood8695
2 күн бұрын
US jobs is rubbish US figures - look under the hood and you see it's loads of part time government jobs and also a few part time bar and restaurant jobs - full time well paid jobs are dropping hard and fast - which is what we're seeing in corporate earnings announcements
@VinNewYork-zv9rn
Күн бұрын
Your name is Peter ? From USA you sure?
@deanchristie3829
2 күн бұрын
How about the DJ Transportation Index? Remember Dow Theory.
@egv9
2 күн бұрын
when you uploaded this, inverted again
@Gary65437
2 күн бұрын
Seems I heard rates re-inverted today..
@WarriorsPhoto
2 күн бұрын
This is some good research. I like your way of presenting economic situations. I feel like I could do well in this downturn with the knowledge you've given me. 😊
@scottyarellano
2 күн бұрын
X is an excellent indicator that the job market is absolutely cooked. Scenario B.
@TomEdwardi
Күн бұрын
!!I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated.
@marksurgeon9266
2 күн бұрын
Are you aware of the 18 year cycle? The historic date you reference all align with the 18 year cycle. There's a number of economists that have been saying around 2026 as the start of downturn for many years, and the next 1-2 years will boom quite a bit more up to the start of the downturn.
@guitaringjarmin
2 күн бұрын
To really gauge the chances of a recession, you've got to compare it to economic data, however, if you believe the data currently being issued I have this wonderful bridge for you to invest in
@marshonmellows
2 күн бұрын
Anddd it’s inverted again lol
@kontito2
2 күн бұрын
Great video, good job.
@0xC47P1C3
2 күн бұрын
Dow is down 400 points today
@rizwanakarizzy8771
2 күн бұрын
Not Jan 25, but maybe Mar-Jun 25' everything falls
@ELIOSANFELIU
2 күн бұрын
Thank you guys¡¡
@CromLine
Күн бұрын
What did you make this video on?
@aaronquadd3019
Күн бұрын
Do you think the next election can circumvent this?
@imMetalberg2
2 күн бұрын
100% scenario A.
@queensburyio4773
2 күн бұрын
Great job, gents! We're going to get a few weeks of surprise new jobless claims over the next few weeks because of Helene. The damage to the economy has been massively understated and, IMHO, hasn't been fully priced into the equity markets. Hurricanes are typically normal occurrences for this time of year, but western NC in particular is only just now starting to emerge from an information blackhole. My very uneducated estimate is an unexpected increase of between 400k and 600k new jobless claims over the next month from this region alone, based on the region's demographics, the geographic spread of catastrophic level damage to critical infrastructure in the region, and the slow pace of recovery made exceedingly difficult by the terrain. Not to mention, that the health of the entire semiconductor industry depends on the health of this region. Nvidia's forward P/E depends on nearly perfect performance over the next two years, and if this storm disrupts the high purity quartz supply chain to any marginal degree, we could see earnings slip and then a possible deterioration in the weighted indices. I have net bearish options positions, cash, and Yen, but I've had them since August.
@denialphasebitcoin5639
2 күн бұрын
🇺🇸 GDP is up Because war supplies on two continents
@gameoftrades
2 күн бұрын
Subscribe to our FREE Macro Report at newsletter.bravosresearch.com
@goughmax9666
2 күн бұрын
This time it’s different 😂
@kevindoyle2012
2 күн бұрын
Thinking we're going to see the 1929 scenario. Blow off top very soon and a crash to zero
@myyootube
2 күн бұрын
The creator of the yield curve inversion is the Canadian economist Campbell Harvey in his 1986 PhD thesis at the University of Chicago. He now gives very little to no weight on this metric.
@ralphsimpson4593
2 күн бұрын
War Economy
@young8534
Күн бұрын
April 2025
@princecamelblu245
2 күн бұрын
There is a lot of global tension going around, isn’t that good for the American economy? Like how many countries are buying weapons from the USA. Also nato countries had to apply the 2% spending to their defense budget. America has like crazy advanced weapons. Isn’t that filling the jobs and non farm payrolls? Let’s not hope for a recession
@Avo7bProject
2 күн бұрын
The world doesn't have to be in synch... The US weathered the Asian currency crisis of 1997-98. But the case for a US recession soon rests with so much debt and unresolved structural problems in the economy.
@maheshwarikuntal1493
Күн бұрын
What about global scenario and war. ?
@AVDS85
2 күн бұрын
Great content
@TakeBackTheMoralOrder
2 күн бұрын
Another excellent video
@appleztooranges
Күн бұрын
Does it matter if Trump or Kamela wins?
@Chris-td8mr
2 күн бұрын
in 3 month it´s anniversary for 3 month channel name Bravos Research ;)
@LadiboiJoy
2 күн бұрын
Screw it im escaping this doomed nation...the money .......crime... politicians...
@afa304
Күн бұрын
Love Game of Trades
@extraordinarydave
Күн бұрын
it is already happening now!
@ilikeboringthings9
2 күн бұрын
Can't wait
@alexanderfaba-spicer8496
2 күн бұрын
Melt up incoming. Then the great reset.
@ge045
2 күн бұрын
I REALLY APPRECIATE YOUR CLEAR AND SIMPLE BREAKDOWN ON FINANCIAL PITFALLS! I LOST SO MUCH MONEY ON STOCK MARKET BUT NOW MAKING AROUND $18K TO $21K EVERY WEEK TRADING DIFFERENT STOCKS AND CRYPTOS.
@fancypigeon1031
2 күн бұрын
hocus pocus
@yj677
2 күн бұрын
😥
@JONATHANSTONKS
2 күн бұрын
First
@thehungergames8918
2 күн бұрын
🏆
@couldbelaster
2 күн бұрын
1 minute gang!
@lus569
2 күн бұрын
B !
@Wooot1
2 күн бұрын
Michael Burry Research
@sheeplessingeorgianm9977
2 күн бұрын
My Ultra Operation Northwoods
@michelramon5786
2 күн бұрын
Manufacturing in US 📉📉
@gonriep3101
2 күн бұрын
Let it tank
@drewsavala8886
2 күн бұрын
You don’t look at the 2 and 10 or the 3 and the 10
@LukasParker-pd8dx
2 күн бұрын
Great video! GDP is trending at a 2% today. Do we know what the GDP was trending at in 1929 and 2008 right before the recession when the curve inverted? @gameoftrades @bravosresearch
@paulm9500
2 күн бұрын
Government deficit is the largest noise in this data - How much higher can federal debt go. That's what will define the turning point
Пікірлер: 129