Early analysis of new ADS-B surveillance radar data that has a relatively clear depiction of the accident aircraft's flight track in the heartbreaking loss of North Dakota State Senator Doug Larsen, his wife Amy, and sons Christian and Everett. The aircraft was a Piper Cherokee PA28-140. This data was not initially tied to the accident aircraft but from inferences, especially concerning the helicopter that arrived on the scene less than an hour later, is obviously the accident aircraft.
From this data and early analysis, there are many lessons we can learn and share to prevent such a tragedy from repeating itself.
** SPECIAL POST-FILMING NOTE ** Some sources indicate an engine modification (an STC, stands for Supplemental Type Certificate) that is an upgrade from 150 horsepower to 180 horsepower might have been applied to the accident aircraft. In that case (if it's true, which we cannot confirm yet from the public aircraft registration data, but will discover after the NTSB releases its preliminary report in approximately 1 week from this publication), if it is fair to compare to a similar 180 horsepower Piper Archer (different airframe and slightly different wing design) to this modified aircraft, under these conditions it would achieve 487 feet per minute in a 76 knot indicated climb, which is 83 knots true airspeed, resulting in 352 feet per nautical mile, which still remains short of the 456 feet per nautical mile requirement of the instrument departure procedure. These requirements are not legally binding to depart an airport under FAA 14 CFR Part 91 regulations, but they are a strong safety recommendation that pilots should follow, especially if they have no visual reference to the ground. The bottom line from the data (from which we can almost directly infer the actual feet per NM) is the airplane was not climbing well, regardless if it had an extra 30 horsepower or not.
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