You forgot to mention that out of that 40 million, millions have escaped the country. The real number is much lower.
@MIchaelSybi
Жыл бұрын
Maybe 3 or so, so it's not much lower
@rangerrick2246
Жыл бұрын
what about those that came back home? It goes both ways
@user-je3sk8cj6g
Жыл бұрын
Ukraine had 44 millions people, between 2 to 3 millions became refugees, the vast majority of which were women, children and elders. Not men in military age. So no, Ukraine still has more than 40 million people inside their own borders, and most of their males are there.
@nicholas9381
Жыл бұрын
@@MIchaelSybi 10 million Ukrainians left the country (mostly women and children)
@againstviralmisinformation510
Жыл бұрын
Well there’s something else we need to add here. Pre-war Ukraine had a population of 43 million. Keep in mind the population declined 8 million people in less than 25 years. 43 included Crimea and Donbas. There’s 4 million people in the Donbas republics prior to 2014 and 2.5 million people in Crimea. That’s 6.5 million people out of 43 million so 36.5 million. Then you have the territory that Russia has gained since then with the native population. If we trust Russia’s voting numbers that’s an extra 2.5 million people. So we are down to 34 million. 8 million refugees have left but 2.5 million remain outside of Ukraine. That’s 31.5 million. Plus the natural decline in the population and war related casualties, there would be less than that. BNE news found 29 million people in Ukraine according to the Ukrainian government. The male to female ratio is 46% males and 54% females. Not all males are fit for combat and Ukraine contains an older population. In reality it would be a lot less than 10 million.
@Markomilic205
10 ай бұрын
There are less than 20 million people in Ukraine now. You forgot to take into account that around 10 million people left Ukraine+ Ukraine doesn't have Crimea, Donjeck, Lugansk, Zaporizia and half of Kherson oblasts.
@Light_Worker
8 ай бұрын
I am from Ukraine Kiev and I am agree with you. He doesn’t k ow what he us talking
@tlk889
8 ай бұрын
That's still plenty of people. Maybe then they can't sustain it for the multiple "decades" mentioned, but just for a single decade. Doesn't make much of a difference to the point of the video. Moreover, there'd be much greater pecentage of the non-fit-for-combat people leaving Ukraine than staying, and Ukraine is trying to get some people back from abroad. Also, there's some number of people in the occupied areas engaging in guerilla warfare. All in all, the numbers are way fuzzier than this, with the 20mil being the very low estimate and 40mil the high one. Realistically it's somewhere in the middle.
@shaddaboop7998
8 ай бұрын
The UN estimated in 2023 that 36.7 million people lived within the borders that Ukraine controlled. The absolute lowest estimate was 28 million, which was for 2022. This means that at most roughly 8 million refugees were simultaneously outside Ukraine - many have since returned, and most were women and children anyway. The problem is that, with all due respect, it is impossible for Ukraine to mobilise 10 million people. Once you filter down eligibility - age, gender, fitness, social conditions, job - you end up with about 3% of your population being draftable before your economy runs into serious problems with worker shortages, particularly skilled workers in key areas that will have a knock on effect to other areas of the economy. 3% of 36.7m is 1.2m. Currently Ukraine's army is about 500,000 strong, minus ~200,000 casualties means they've already used 700,000 of their theoretical 1.2m manpower budget.
@tlk889
8 ай бұрын
@@shaddaboop7998 I agree that drafting 25% of your population just won't do, but the point is that's the pool Ukraine has, not that they'll draft them all at the same time. It's replacements. Not to mention that modern medicine can patch up a technical casualty in a way that won't make them fit for combat again, but they can perform some work in the wider economy, plus many modern jobs don't have too physically intensive requirements. So yeah, over the course of the next 10-15 years, Ukraine will have enough peopel to dip into if need be, but that obviously doesn't say anything about their willingness to be drafted.
@jackjames7283
7 ай бұрын
@tlk889 Yes, and no, you got to take into account how much of that percentage is old or young and do they want to fight or not sure they have millions of people but a good chunk of it are mostly elderly people who are not in the best shape and a good chuck of people who don't want to fight.
@vohbovohborian28
Жыл бұрын
For reference: in 1937, the population of Germany was about 56-57 million. In total in World War 2, over 13 million German soldiers were active.
@gruffelo6945
Жыл бұрын
In 1939 the unified Germany had 79.375.281 inhabitants - a lot more than the 1937 numbers.
@fomobull4187
Жыл бұрын
The 13 million includes the people who were drafted from Austria, the Sudetenland, etc. The population was much larger in 1939 due to the annexations.
@gruffelo6945
Жыл бұрын
Usually the number of rear services soldiers is about 10x higher than the frontline soldiers - so the number of available combat troops is not 1/4th of the population.
@peterwolf4230
Жыл бұрын
That's not correct. It's something called the tooth to tail ratio - and it has varied a LOT through history. It definitely wasn't anywhere near 1:10 in WW1, in fact it was 2:1 for the US (2 frontline for 1 support).
@peterwolf4230
Жыл бұрын
And tooth to tail ratios depend on the war, the country, the equipment, and also the fact that the teeth get replaced over time. So an instant view will give a different tooth to tail ratio than a full account.
@hellefejfer9485
Жыл бұрын
Jeg ser altid frem til dine videoer, som er så uddybende og oplysende. Vore nyhedsmedier belyser ikke krigen i Ukraine tilstrækkeligt, så tak fordi du deler din store viden og dine kompetencer med os.
@kirstyblack3432
Жыл бұрын
no main media covers this conflict (except maybe Poland) sadly must rely on KZitem bloggers.
@normanboyes4983
Жыл бұрын
It is pretty much the same in the U.K. MSM are serving the public who have a very short attention span and have a hunger for salacious stories about celebrities. The good news is we have some excellent resources on YT.
@Bananskuden
Жыл бұрын
Krigens Døgn på DR dækker godt, men desværre kun en time om ugen. Anders Puck Nielsen er af og til med. Men du kender sikker allerede udsendelsen.
@hellefejfer9485
Жыл бұрын
@@Bananskuden Det gør jeg og synes også ligesom dig, at det er en god og belysende udsendelse, men netop kun 30 minutter om ugen, og til min store forargelse blev Krigens Døgn ikke sendt i 2 sommermåneder. Det er ligesom at nyhedens interesse er ovre, krigen fortsætter og der bør være mere focus på den, men godt vi har Anders Puck til at gøre os klogere på, hvad der sker i Ukraine.
@a64738
Жыл бұрын
Main Stream Media in the entire world is now pathological liars paid to spread lies, propaganda and misinformation. You can not trust anything they say... And the so called "fact checkers" is the worst.
@Lost-In-Blank
Жыл бұрын
Dear American brothers to the south. Ukraine is not Vietnam or Korea, Ukraine is a foreign country annexing a US state. How many US lives would you spend to reclaim Florida and California from a Mexican annexation? That is the situation with Ukraine.
@rays6744
Жыл бұрын
Your videos are the BEST!!! thanks for putting them out.
@CitizenSnips314
Жыл бұрын
Absolute class! You and Perun are the ones to follow. Thank you for sharing your perspectives :)
@AndrewBlucher
Жыл бұрын
Perun for deep studies. I also recommend "Reporting from Ukraine" for his focus on facts and accuracy. He is often not first with news, but what he does report is accurate. He explains the tactical reasons for what both side is doing each local situation.
@nooboftheyear7170
Жыл бұрын
And 'unfortunately for russians' the outlook is not looking good for them
@piotrd.4850
Жыл бұрын
@@AndrewBlucher Perun is ukrainian shill and that's one of only less important flaws. Go for english version of Ostereich Bundesheer.
@kameronjones7139
10 ай бұрын
@piotrd.4850 he really isn't but sure
@nooboftheyear7170
10 ай бұрын
@piotrd.4850 wow...how didn't I see your comment to knock it out the park?!? But yes...don't watch perun. You're obviously a russian simp, gru?!? Perun must have made you flood your house with tears 🤣🤡 Yes, perun has a little ukrainian in him he said once.
@bigd4561
Жыл бұрын
Dear Sir, Do not stop making videos, please. Normal folks rarely have access to "professionals" such as yourself. Informing, the way you do, is appreciated. Thank you.
@elisabethbrown6231
Жыл бұрын
Could not agree more!
@bartvanpoppel22
Жыл бұрын
This is not a professional omg
@bigd4561
Жыл бұрын
@bartvanpoppel22 I believe he is a military analyst...
@HelenLemink
Жыл бұрын
@@bartvanpoppel22 Yes, he's not a professional, this KZitemr doesn't do any unboxing, any game or tutorial... maybe it's a TikToker, but he doesn't dance much neither...
@diamend85
Жыл бұрын
@@bartvanpoppel22 he is a military analyst at the royal danish defense college if that doesn’t make him a professional i don’t know what does.. certainly more profound than mainstream media or the average blogger
@caranorn
Жыл бұрын
The major error with 1 in 4 is that you are including both under age and over military age. Historically 10% is more likely.
@kylethompson1379
Жыл бұрын
Yep. The whole calculation is way too simplified. Like how many people reach military age in Ukraine every year? Not saying it's right to send 16 year olds to the front but in principle one would need to overtake the birth rate in terms of losses for it to ever end. Vietnam war is a good example of how difficult it is to do that.
@jamesbridges7750
Жыл бұрын
The data is there if he had bothered to look it up. Wikipedia has an easy to understand population pyramid, it shows fewer than 100,000 20-25 males AND females respectively . There's a huge population canyon from 15 to40. Then you have a Diaspora below .... It's not a pretty picture.
@XPLAlN
Жыл бұрын
…and just walk through any town and imagine the unsoldierly quality of recruit you’d get if you had to choose a quarter of everyone you saw to be frontline fighters. And then having ‘creamed off’ those what you’d have left to do things like building, firefighting, farming, medics, truck driving, mothering and teaching etc. 1/4 of the population is a ridiculous estimate. This guy is deluded.
@pierre-zz9vs
Жыл бұрын
@@kylethompson1379 Which side of the two belligerents are you talking about?
@kylethompson1379
Жыл бұрын
Neither really. I'm just criticizing the methods used in this video to assess available manpower. @@pierre-zz9vs
@revanati222
Жыл бұрын
During the world wars, most countries could in industrialised warfare field about a tenth of their population. However that was nearly a hundred years ago, and warfare has changed once again, moved to a much more wider place, and the equipment is even more important than simple manpower. It's not that a country cant just put every person in a uniform, but how they are armed, supplied and supported off the battlefield that sustains the front line, so you need much more manpower to keep a smaller number of soldiers in the fight.
@antoninakostushina2870
11 ай бұрын
Це правильно для сучасних армій NATO, але не діє в Україні. Українці отримують не достатньо зброї наступу, більше для оборони, щоб триматися проти сильнішого російського війська, але не перемогти його. Тому українці вимушені збільшувати кількість живої сили для стояння в окопах, як у часи першої світової війни. Зрозумілий підхід західних країн - дозувати зброю і утримувати конфлікт від розростання. Однак українці закінчуються. Нас не так багато, як пише ваша статистика
@yannickl92
10 ай бұрын
@@antoninakostushina2870 Slava Ukraini!
@AntPictures
Жыл бұрын
This guy is absolutely ridiculous. I'm just shocked how poeple can treat him seriously. 10 mln potential recruits from a population of "40 mln"? That's just fantastic.
@ClearSight2022
Жыл бұрын
Thanks Anders, I was glad to hear from you and the information you provided was indeed helpful in getting some clarity with regard to what is ahead. Keep up the good work when you have time ! !
@svenvet8497
11 ай бұрын
This also miss the fact that Ukraine lost population due to annexation, and that great number of Ukrainians managed to leave the country
@VladVexler
Жыл бұрын
Thanks Anders!
@gradypurtilo8863
Жыл бұрын
The tooth-to-tail ratio numbers are going to be skewed. Much of the tail is in Poland, as it's like a big loading dock just waiting for things to be picked up and put to use. A whole lot of things are farmed out to Nato countries so Ukraine can use its manpower as it likes, without the huge amount of support needed in the rear.
@diamend85
Жыл бұрын
interesting and valid point of view
@Zoltan1251
Жыл бұрын
Thats mainly intelligence and some training but bulk is still on Ukraine, supplies and ammunition handling is the biggest thing. Also, millions upon millions people have left Ukraine and its mostly young people. Even though men couldnt leave i meet Ukrainian guys EVERYWHERE here in Bratislava. I would say that draft pool is much much smaller than its suggested in the video.
@cccpredarmy
Жыл бұрын
@@Zoltan1251 In a distand german region in the west in a far countryside there are also quite a lot of young/military capable ukranian men I come across daily... I think all those number-crunchers on the internet never know exactly what they are talking about ...
@Zoltan1251
Жыл бұрын
@@cccpredarmy He is just missing tons of information. Ukraine HAD 40 million people BEFORE the war. Then lost Crimea and heavily populated part of east, then about 8-10 million refugees. Lets say that 20 million is still in Ukraine. This is the best number you can come to. How can he even say they have 40 million? Yeah, he is not that smart.
@Nickxxx85
11 ай бұрын
@@Zoltan1251 Not to mention that some percentage of ukrainians are of russian origin or pro russians or simply live on russian controlled teritory of Ukraine which exclude them from being able to be drafted by Ukraine
@peterwolf4230
Жыл бұрын
In WW1, France lost about 1.4m dead out of a population of 39m. UK lost about 900k from a similar population. Germany. 2m from about 60m. It implies that around a 3% death rate (with more wounded) is possible, if horrific. So Ukraine can probably still fight even with a million dead. But much beyond this....I don't know that there is a hard cap, but WW1 was a very brutal war.
@BruceMullen-iv8hx
Жыл бұрын
The Ukraine war has been horrific for Ukraine . Their WW1 tactic of charging the entrenched Russians has raised their death toll to over 400,000. They are now conscripting old men and young women and girls.
@effexon
Жыл бұрын
germany was at breaking point in every possible way near end of war.... and WW1 was very total war esque, ie everyone put everything they could to fight. It is wonder WW2 ever happened from these starting points , though all countries practically put all "dividend" of society for next 20 years to military equipment.... or rebuilding bombed cities. US had to organize marshall help sort food aid many places in europe early 1920s, it was that bad.
@larsord9139
Жыл бұрын
@@BruceMullen-iv8hx Yes, and I bet I know where you got this BS information.
@andersjjensen
Жыл бұрын
@@BruceMullen-iv8hx Hello vatnik. Hows the weather in Moscow today?
@spage80
Жыл бұрын
@@BruceMullen-iv8hxYou lie, Woman can not be conscripted and the maximum age for men is 25. The maximum age for Russia is 30.
@capitalistdingo
Жыл бұрын
US numbers only count Russian regular forces-the people who would rock up in Poland during a war with NATO. Ukraine numbers of enemy KIA include pro-Kremlin Chechen militias, DPR and LPR conscripts, foreign mercenaries-anyone who likely wouldn’t fight against NATO in Eastern Europe but need to be replaced when they die for Moscow to maintain combat effectiveness in Ukraine. It’s important to remember the motives of the people doing the counting.
@ronaldbell7429
Жыл бұрын
It's not a difference in motives, but of metrics.
@MrAwawe
Жыл бұрын
@@ronaldbell7429 The difference in metrics comes from a difference in motives.
@dperreno
Жыл бұрын
@@MrAwawe The difference may also just be due to the available information sources. Perhaps those militia and mercenary casualties are harder to quantify? I don't know, but I wouldn't just jump to motives as being the only explanation.
@bluemarlin8138
Жыл бұрын
Probably true, except the part about Ruzzian regular forces rocking up in Poland. The Ruzzians wouldn’t make it past the Baltic States.
@michaelgoetze2103
Жыл бұрын
Russia does have a border with Poland - Kaliningrad. @@bluemarlin8138
@ericfleet9602
Жыл бұрын
Why does he keep confusing killed in action and casualties? The 275,000 are deaths according to ukraine. 300,000 is casualties according to US.
@Tyler-wl8kq
Жыл бұрын
I’m not a war expert but this sounds very logical to me, I’m an American over 50 years old, if I was asked to go fight for another land I would unequivocally say NO, but if American was being attacked by Russia landing on our shores, I’d fight to the death, so that’s where Ukraians are at, fight or be enslaved
@patnor7354
Жыл бұрын
Blackrock would be proud of you...
@antebratincevic6764
Жыл бұрын
And what a tens of thousands American soldiers are doing few hundreds military bases in various countries arround world . . . :)
@tiburcio729
Жыл бұрын
Ukr lost around 70k in the counteroffensive alone. KIA since the start of the war must be over 300k.
@alexshepherd1760
Жыл бұрын
the thing about russia lying about the ukraine deaths stats is it makes no sense when they keep losing land
@cream2257
Жыл бұрын
They are coping, leave them alone. They would believe a post from cnn saying that only 200 Ukrainians died while russia lost 2 million
@k.safonov
11 ай бұрын
Precise and reliable analytics (not)
@tiburcio729
11 ай бұрын
@@k.safonov Yeah I think I underestimated it
@yuriyseliuk4120
11 ай бұрын
thank you comrade :D
@Jack_Redview
Жыл бұрын
Always glad to see your content Anders regardless of its length. Your commentary on this war is one of my favorite sources for its accuracy and responsibility to be accurate. Thank you Anders , here’s your next beer on me
@anderspuck
Жыл бұрын
Thank you. I’ll enjoy it. 😊
@PpAirO5
Жыл бұрын
😱😃 OMG ! It's Jackiee Chann.
@howtoappearincompletely9739
Жыл бұрын
@@PpAirO5 Shut up, Ethan Hawke. ;-)
@imtiazakand3174
Жыл бұрын
@@anderspuckU should go to the front to keep american hegemony.
@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416
Жыл бұрын
@@imtiazakand3174 Are you at any front fighting for any cause yourself? Are you on your own or are there other people around not shooting but supporting in other ways?
@SeeLasSee
Жыл бұрын
Let’s hope that attrition will never become a problem for fighting. Enough have died already. If we help Ukraine engage in higher interest with fighting lives will be spared in the long run.
@enricogattone432
Жыл бұрын
You may be interested in the latest video published by William Spaniel today
@effexon
Жыл бұрын
my guess is troops attrition is secondary issue if ukrainians manage to destroy enough tanks, planes, ammunition, fuel depots... of russians... cant fight effectively without advanced heavier equipment. Though drones exist but those need heavy artillery and other support methods. In long run lot of casualties for ukraine means they need also help running their farms and factories early years, so that doesnt sound so great for morale.
@LeftCoastStephen
Жыл бұрын
Excellent analysis. In WW2, 1.1 million Canadians served in the armed forces out of a population of just over 11 million in 1941. So 10% would be a good base line. Canada wasn’t invaded or occupied so I would expect more than 10% but 25% might be high. Even 10% would give a 4million strong force. Ukraine has a definite advantage as NATO allies are helping with training. As with the Commonwealth air training program, it’s much easier to train where the risks are only training accidents and not enemy attacks.
@jakubsevcik1392
Жыл бұрын
You have to consider demographics, 1941 canada was much younger than todays ukraine or russia.
@dougcoombes8497
Жыл бұрын
Many of those Canadians were conscripts who couldn't be sent overseas. Canada had critical manpower issues in its forces during the war.
@Sayhaw
Жыл бұрын
Good point , the West will never survive these numbers, i'm building a bunker.
@geofflepper3207
Жыл бұрын
@@jakubsevcik1392 True. You have a valid point. But my impression is that Canadian WW2 troops were virtually all very young men whereas today Ukrainian men up to age 60 seem to be involved in fighting the war. And I'm pretty sure that today the percentage of Ukrainian troops who are women is much higher than the percentage of Canadian WW2 troops who were women (though of course in WW2 many women including Princess Elizabeth were serving in support roles in the military). So today's Ukrainian military is drawing on women and older men much more than was the Canadian military of WW2. It's also the case that during WW2 about half of Canadians lived on farms producing food needed not only for Canada but also for Britain and were needed to keep producing food. I don't know the munbers for Ukraine today but I'm sure that a lot fewer than half of Ukrainian men are working on farms, especially since Russian attacks and minefields have made farming impractical or impossible in much of Ukraine.
@markmonaghan2309
Жыл бұрын
Soldier or russian gulag , mmmm, not a great choice. But a simple one.
@y.harveynorman1392
Жыл бұрын
There are not 40 million people in Ukraine, millions of people have left.
@jantzfitzgerald6115
Жыл бұрын
Thank you they don't even have 30 million left.
@Mornomgir
Жыл бұрын
During the height of Swedens "total defense strategy" 4.5 million people where part of the defense. 1 million were soldiers. Thats from a population of 8 million.
@edvsilas8281
Жыл бұрын
@@Mornomgir Out of a population of 8 million, how many are very young,ado,senior ? Also ,Youdefinitely need people to grow crops, to do medical,to provide services etc Out of an army ,how many are cooks, machinists ,maintenance ,etc and how many actually do the fighting on the battlefield . I doubt very much that out of 8 million people that you could actully produce 1million real battlefied soldiers.
@lokki874
Жыл бұрын
@@edvsilas8281Easily. Finland got populatio 3.3 million and fielded 330k man 1939 and 500k man 1941. Womens Job was Cook and field hospitals. When line has brokened during winter war there was under age school classes figthing and they teacher was their NCO
@Mornomgir
Жыл бұрын
@@edvsilas8281 Whats a real soldier in your mind? ww1 and 2 the vietnam war pretty much every war ever where fought by men with very little training. The Swedish mandatory military service spanned for a year or more with frequent "repmånads" until you were in your 50s. Which means you go back for weeks, every year or every other year, to get used to it again. If you actually havent heard of the insane defense strategy Sweden had throughout the cold war i can recommend that you look it up. 4th or 3rd largest Airforce in the world. Enough artillery to have a battery for each kilometer of coastline. A massive navy. Everything was fortified. The army was built around the notion that it should be able to defend itself alone against the full might of the soviet union.
@nistaffsubs6787
Жыл бұрын
Every year Ukraine Young men Will are turning 18 years old ready to train and fight ... And with more strength because a lot of those ukriane have father wounded by russia and they Will want revenge ...
@hoggarththewisesmeagol8362
Жыл бұрын
The prewar population of Ukraine was 38 million. It is now only 20 million
@IlyaDemidov
Жыл бұрын
The Source: wishful thinking.
@navidf1428
Жыл бұрын
@@IlyaDemidov nearly 6-9 million migrated out due to war situation(6mil according to UNrefugees 7.4 mil just in Europe alone according to reliefweb and 8-9 mil acording to a western media outlet which I don't recall its name at the moment) and near 9 mil are russian ethnics under russia now (there was around 11-12 million Russian ethnics living in Ukraine before the war of which 2.4 million lived in Crimea , 4.4 mil in Donetsk and around 2.3 mil in Luhansk according to google) and the population of Ukraine pre war according to various claims was 38-43 million so what remains is minimum 20 mil to maximum 28 mil living in Ukraine right now. and you can actually google my numbers if you don't believe me and you'll see that all these numbers are provided by reliable western medias. edit: if you're pro Russia you would believe the 20 mil but if you're pro Ukraine you would probably believe the 28 mil number but to my own experience the both numbers are incorrect and the real population count must be something in between the two around 25 mil.
@hoggarththewisesmeagol8362
Жыл бұрын
@@IlyaDemidov Not from how many Ukrainians are now scattered across Europe and UK it isn't
@rayj.4527
Жыл бұрын
UN estimate for Ukraine's population in 2023 is 36,7 million people. So you're wrong.
@navidf1428
Жыл бұрын
@@rayj.4527 UN estimate is not wrong it's just you don't understand what it really means. 36.7 mil is for all of Ukraine as a whole including the parts under Russian occupation which has more than 9 mil population.
@Czhr43jh6hyx
Жыл бұрын
The war is not only about soldiers. It is also about the capability to develop and produce weapons. Total relying on foreign help is a sign of the lost war. When the US decides to stop supplies - it is over.
@mythbuster860
Жыл бұрын
Unfortunately there will be plenty of weapons on both sides in this war but not enough soldiers on Ukrainian side in a year or two.
@sergii2945
Жыл бұрын
Russia also produces the minimum now, but relies on the Soviet inheritance which is not replenishable nowadays.
@Czhr43jh6hyx
Жыл бұрын
@@sergii2945 False information. Military production is growing and growing fast, way more and faster growth than NATO all together.
Actually, the EU is providing over 2/3rds of the support to Ukraine, so even if the US decides to stop supplies, it's not over. It would be worse for Ukraine if the EU decided to stop.
@joemildner5667
11 ай бұрын
I advice to provide more Britons for Ukraine. Especially from the elite-families.
@watmosphere
7 ай бұрын
according to the last estimate from the ukrainian source, there are 11.1 million men left in Ukraine between 25-60 of which: 25% work 11% serve/work the military 13% disabled 11% moved to Europe and USA 26% live under Russian controlled territories 5% small business owners 9% unknown
@jackjames7283
7 ай бұрын
so I say they got 2 more years at most.
@ethank5059
Жыл бұрын
One slight correction. The Ukrainian claim is 273,000 Russians (and proxies) killed and not 273k casualties. Whether the claim is accurate is another question but that is what they are claiming.
@anderspuck
Жыл бұрын
Thanks. Do you have a source?
@enricogattone432
Жыл бұрын
It appears to me that the tendency is to account for both KIA and irrecoverable WIA, hence the use of the term "eliminated" by commentators such as Operator Starsky
@enricogattone432
Жыл бұрын
@@anderspuckOperator Starsky himself could be a reliable source, I reckon, him being a Press Officer he should have access to what actually the official numbers are stated to be about 🤷
@crosbylemieux6687
Жыл бұрын
@anderspuck I believe I heard that on the telegraph podcast, Ukraine: The Latest, but I couldn't provide you with a specific episode
@anderspuck
Жыл бұрын
@@enricogattone432 Thanks. “Eliminated” is also the word the Ukrainians use officially. It makes sense that it would be killed and seriously wounded.
@woozyyt5573
10 ай бұрын
какой приятный улыбчивый человек. мечтает поставить 10 миллионов под ружье. сам он конечно на передовую не пойдет, будет и дальше приветливо улыбаться из своей Дании.
@tiitsaul9036
Жыл бұрын
Thank you. Your analysis is always super interesting and helps to clear up the picture.
@eculindo
11 ай бұрын
Historians has determined that a country at war collapses when approximately 3.4-4% of its population die. 30-32 million Ukrainians remain in the country, this means that they’ll collapse at 1-1.2 million KIAs, Rusia on the other hand need to reach 5-6 million to get to that point. The American war effort in Afghanistan lasted 2 decades, Vietnam started in 1955 and concluded in 1975, whereas Ukraine has been at war since 2014 and can possible go on until 2034 (2 decades) where casualties can easily reach 1 million.
@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416
11 ай бұрын
Could you write more, please? Authors, etc
@Mauricio.Solorzano
11 ай бұрын
Look up this article: "Ukrainian women to be conscripted as the country faces Russian forces"
@wren2900
Жыл бұрын
Yeah, not a problem at all! Let’s fight till the last ukranian against their will. The show must go on!
@mariaf.6601
Жыл бұрын
Where did you take it from ? 'RussiaToday' ?
@wren2900
Жыл бұрын
@@mariaf.6601 no, from this dude - he just said that
@grahamstrouse1165
Жыл бұрын
You’re using Kremlin cliches. This makes you a troll or a dupe.
@mariaf.6601
Жыл бұрын
@@wren2900 Did he ?
@wren2900
Жыл бұрын
@@mariaf.6601 yes
@JohnJohansen2
Жыл бұрын
I might be wrong, but I believed that Ukraines largest problem is lack of ammunition?
@arnsteinholm7372
Жыл бұрын
lack of everything from weapons, ammunition and soldiers, and now Poland have denied to send more weapons according to the PM ?
@OryxAU
Жыл бұрын
@@arnsteinholm7372 They've sent pretty much everything they realistically can without harming their own military readiness. What they meant is that they won't be sending anything that was set for their own troops anymore, but they will be sending equipment specifically designated for Ukraine.
@davidelliott5843
Жыл бұрын
Poland has sent more per capita than anyone else. They must be close to having nothing left they can send.
@saumyacow4435
Жыл бұрын
@@arnsteinholm7372 Poland hasn't denied Ukraine weapons. That was essentially a misunderstanding that certain elements of the media spun.
@micropower8
Жыл бұрын
They have plenty of ammunition, but the number of people is extremely limited. They had at the beginning of the war ~19 million people in Ukraine. Not 40 million! 50% are woman, makes 9.5 million, 50% of them are under or over age, makes ~5 million man. The had losses of 420,000 death and over a million injured or crippled, so they could use only 3.5 million people. But from this 3.5 million there are a lot which run the country, Repair things, building homes, creating products, creating weapons, farmer, bakery ... a lot of people are needed for ordinary things. I am not sure how much the Ukraine have now, but they have possibly more ammunition as soldiers. This is the reason why they want the 650,000 Ukrainian man back which are at the moment in Europe as refugees.
@oconnem1
Жыл бұрын
Another way of looking at it is that around 300,000 Ukrainian males turn 18 each year. I’m not saying that they are drafting every 18 year old (they aren’t) but it illustrates the cycle of natural regeneration.
@alexshepherd1760
Жыл бұрын
its because you dont know how to do math. the births for the full year isnt 97,000@@SimonTmte
@alexshepherd1760
11 ай бұрын
Ok sorry I didn’t realise you are would be so dumb that you compared annual data for the last 20 years with the first half of this year lmao. Generally people compare data with the same time frames hahahah
@deleteme924
7 ай бұрын
A contest of willpower indeed. I'm ethnically Ukrainian and I'm not really convinced it's worth fighting for either. It's not like Ukraine is a great place to live
@EspenShampoo25
Жыл бұрын
People who says 70 000 casualties is unsustainable can't have paid much attention in their history classes. A month of fighting in 1914 around Ypres cost the French and Belgians 70000 casualties and the germans lost 130 000. Let that sink in 1 month of fighting! Was this unsustainable? No the war lasted for another 4 years!
@lostinpa-dadenduro7555
Жыл бұрын
But you cannot take 25% of the population out of the economy and into uniform without consequence. The largest percentage the US ever mobilized was 8.8% in WWII.
@RZakelis
Жыл бұрын
Ukrainian economy is bankrolled by Western countries
@sumotony
Жыл бұрын
The Ukranians have the backing of the US and Europe to provide all of government funding, plus military training and aid. Peter Zeihan (another great YT) made a video at the start of Putin's SMO that even if Ukranian government had collapsed, European funded partisans would have become prevalent for a decade. Real talk, you can get a gun and a uniform, or you can be murdered by a Russian drunk mobik come to steal your toilet, aka Bucha.
@lethalfang
Жыл бұрын
Certainly there will be consequences, and they will need even more international aid to keep the economy afloat if they mobilize that many. But also remember the US would've mobilized a lot more if Japan invaded US territory and occupied California, Oregon, and Washington.
@Phookutube
Жыл бұрын
But the percentage of population that Germany and the USSR mobilized was far greater. Both mobilized their entire manpower pool. The US on the other hand was perfectly safe on the other side of the ocean.
@doodlePimp
Жыл бұрын
That is what a part of the western economic aid and loans are for.
@howtoappearincompletely9739
Жыл бұрын
"Ukraine can continue this for decades." 4:52 What a horrific thought that this war could last that long.
@lethalfang
Жыл бұрын
If you want peace, prepare for war. If you want to win an attritional war, prepare to outlast your enemy. The enemy needs to know it too. That's the only way the war can last shorter.
@MultiJejje
Жыл бұрын
Well it was said already after 1 month that this may last tens of years. It wouldn't if NATO would take stick out of it's arse
@mikeoxlong3676
9 күн бұрын
Oceania has always been at war with East Asia.
@earlthepearl3922
Жыл бұрын
I always enjoy hearing what you have to say. Your presentations are always informative, timely, and thought provoking. Thank you!
@SkuliBragason-xc7jl
Жыл бұрын
Last spring , Ukrainin officials said 400000 Ukr soldiers would never answer the phone again. This article was quickly removed. Since then they lost over 77000 in their " advance ". Russia has lost 32000.
@googlreviews7813
5 ай бұрын
I recently returned back from Poland. My plane was a Polish Airline LOT, it was full of Ukrainian refugees, women and children, and yes men as well. I sat beside one and I asked how old he was, he said 32 and he seemed healthy and in great shape... I asked him how he managed to leave? I thought all men had to stay behind to fight the Russian army. He said his family in Canada has send money which in turn was used to pay off military and local officials so he wouldn't be forced to join the war and allow him to flee the country. Very quickly it became apparent that if you have money, and you bribe local officials, you will be freed, while poor stay behind, fight and die. Ukraine has long been regarded as most corrupt nation in Europe but this was first time I was exposed to it and experienced it personally. I also witnessed something sad at the border between Poland and Ukraine... Because border crossings are now closely patrolled and trucks are checked, there are lineups, however any trucks carrying humanitarian aid are allowed to bypass the lineup. Week ago I saw two Ukrainian trucks trying to bypass the lineup claiming that they carry humanitarian aid, they even had women dressed as nuns to make it look convincing. Border patrol in Poland opened the back of the trucks and they saw blankets, but after first layer of blankets, it was regular cargo. Also, millions of dollars send by allied countries, from our taxes, are not reaching people in need, the money is stolen and divided among corrupt leadership and officials. There is a lot more serious issue going on in Ukraine than just Russian invasion. Our media never mentions any of this because they know governments would lose public support for the aid of Ukraine in this war. I was there for 27 days and I travelled to various places and spoke to many people, ones I feel most sorry for are the poor folks who are stuck fighting because they can't afford to pay off military officials, while ones with money leave, my plane from Warsaw was full of them yesterday. I felt like asking them "Aren't you guys ashamed that bunch of you in your prime flee and you leave weaker, older ones to defend your home land?" But I didn't say it, i didn't want to cause any problems, but it makes one wonder how they can do it and sleep at night. It's absurd that any government, in any country would be happy to send money overseas, fighting corrupt war effort, and yet not support their own people, very people that elected them. Also as you guys know, Poland has opened their door to people from Ukraine and welcomed millions of people freeing the war, despite troubled history in which Ukrainian Massacred Poles in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia killing tens of thousands of Poles, and Ukraine was against Polish anti Communism movement in the 80s. Having said all that, Poles accepted Ukraininas, offered them housing, often in their own homes, government offered them social security numbers and health insurance and access to all social programs, including social assistance. It has turned out that many collect social assistance from Polish government (taxes) while they actually work in Germany illegally, so yet again an example of deeply rooted corruption. I have tried to share this on various news outlets covering Ukraininan conflict but sadly many news outlets block my post, so I am not sure you guys will get to read this...
@james82184
Жыл бұрын
Always good to hear voices of reason on KZitem
@stephenking27
Жыл бұрын
Thank you Anders. Please keep the videos coming. You’re a prime source of reasoned analysis. Much appreciated. Stephen in 🇦🇺
@carkawalakhatulistiwa
10 ай бұрын
based on UN data January 2022 population of Ukraine Excluding Russian occupied territory: 36,744,636. and 8 million foreign nationals, women and children left Ukraine. so the total population of Ukraine is now 28 million. Don't forget that Ukraine's population pyramid is a constructive pyramid. where the young population is getting smaller
@ramatgan1
11 ай бұрын
R.I.P. 🇺🇦 what a stupid idea was to fight with 🇷🇺
@fellowstembo2362
11 ай бұрын
Russia is recruiting an average of 1350 volunteers on a monthly basis. Over 230,000 Russia have joined the war since the official mobilization ended. Russia does not need another mobilization for now because people are joining voluntarily every month.
@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416
11 ай бұрын
Consider the losses.
@elisabethbrown6231
Жыл бұрын
Your short video was another eye opener....as usual. Thanks so much, Anders. Keep 'em coming, please!
@dirckthedork-knight1201
11 ай бұрын
The answer of who is the one with the biggest losses lies on who hase been doing endless mobilizations which have reached the point of recruiting women and elderly and the one currently doing it is Ukraine
@tordsteiro9838
Жыл бұрын
An interesting detail was reported in a NYT article recently: The Russian army recruits almost exclusively from minorities. The question, then, is "what happens when russia run out of able bodied men with these minority backgrounds?" In that sense, Russia may face far more serious obstacles to mobilisation than we normally think.
@ruifenghuang1029
Жыл бұрын
Could just be similar to affirmative action, every ethnicity gets a proportional amount of recruitment
@tordsteiro9838
Жыл бұрын
@@ruifenghuang1029 LOL!!! "Affirmative action" on war mobilisation 😄 good one 👍
@jensdamsgaard9634
Жыл бұрын
Top info, thanks
@georgelovell477
Жыл бұрын
*If Ukraine was running out of Soldiers, then PUTLER would have been broadcasting LIVE from Kyiv. NO?*
@gohibniugoh1668
Жыл бұрын
Its an existential war for ukraine, losses are irrelevant. For Ruzzia, its a purely voluntary war, they can end it within the next 10 minutes by dropping their weapons and leaving ukraine. Nobody is forcing ruzzia to engage in war except ruzzia.
@finncarlbomholtsrensen1188
Жыл бұрын
When fighting for your home, you are probably much more motivated than when fighting in a foreign country, with no connection to you?
@Markomilic205
10 ай бұрын
November 9. Ukraine is mobilizing women and 16 and 17 year olds
@guydreamr
Жыл бұрын
To those who claim that Ukrainian losses are unsustainable, I would say this: at the start of the Afghan War of 1979-89, the population of Afghanistan was under 13 million. Meanwhile, the population of the Soviet Union was over 260 million. How'd that work out?
@ImperialDiecast
Жыл бұрын
there were no ethnic russians living in afghanistan, which is why russia pulled out. there were no americans living in vietnam (except embassy personnell) which is why america pulled out. for your logic to apply to eastern ukraine they'd have to take all the russian speakers with them, a mass exodus i dont see happening.
@guydreamr
Жыл бұрын
@@ImperialDiecast By *your* logic, Russian speakers equals ethnic Russians which is like saying English speakers equals ethnic Englishmen - english speakers in the United States or India might beg to differ with you, so your statement is invalid. Username checks out, by the way.
@ComradeOgilvy1984
Жыл бұрын
@@ImperialDiecast That argument is a two way street. There are a large number of ethnic Ukrainians living within those provinces that Russia claims to annexed. Obviously Ukraine has no manpower shortage, right?
@TAS_CNX
Жыл бұрын
The geography of the two countries is rather different
@guydreamr
Жыл бұрын
@@TAS_CNX Nevertheless the population difference between Afghanistan and the Soviet Union was much greater than between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine also has significantly greater industrial capacity and is being equipped with much heavier and advanced weapons than Afghanistan was.
@jang.7499
11 ай бұрын
Currently there are approximately 28-29 million inhabitants in Ukraine.
@stevecariggillio4139
Жыл бұрын
"Didn't volunteer" = forced into a van and taken to the front line within weeks.
@MyTv-
Жыл бұрын
Ukraine have also the advantage of fighting for librating their country. While the Russians fights to keep Putin in power in Russia.
@livenotonevil8279
Жыл бұрын
May be true, but irrelevant if Putin possesses the infinite lives cheat code - which it appears he does.
@hogar1965
Жыл бұрын
Ok, thats what you get server by BBC and The Sun. What abouth reallity? Who is sending arrest orders arround the EU, to get back people who dont want to fight? Ucraine or Russia,
@williamhenry8914
Жыл бұрын
Ukraine has will to fight in the people and the government both, Russia has it in the government only Russia has more people, Ukraine has more manpower
@escobeer3605
Жыл бұрын
Russia’s Ministry of Labour has requested 230,000 certificates for family members of deceased combat veterans and over 750,000 certificates for combat veterans, which is several times more than before. Source: Russian Media Outlet Vyorstka With a 1 to 3 equipment loss my guess is even these numbers are conservative. The list of obituaries in Russia are going trough the roof, cemetaries grow rapidly. Shame Prigozhin no longer here to tell us how much casualties Russia is really taking...
@vaenii5056
Жыл бұрын
They are preparing for prolonged war and massive mobilization with massive casualties. I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out they have been working quietly towards making a mass mobilization possible. Meanwhile the West is still dilly-dallying around and thinking they can somehow dissuade Russia by not giving Ukraine absolutely everything they need.
@charlesburgoyne-probyn6044
Жыл бұрын
Miss him in some ways he was a charismatic personality
@billusher2265
6 ай бұрын
From the financial times: Data on Ukraine’s male population, shared by the parliamentary economics committee, shows that of 11.1mn Ukrainian men aged between 25 and 60, only an estimated 3.7mn are eligible for mobilisation. The others are fighting, disabled, abroad or considered critical workers.
@esc952
Жыл бұрын
In the US, about 40% of the population is of military age. Just to be conservative, let's cut that in half (assuming no women want to serve...yes I know this is a bad assumption, but it is conservative for this purpose). Now let's cut the remaining 20% in half again, assuming that half are not fit for combat due to physical, mental, or behavioral reasons. In the US, that gives us a pool of 10%...which would be around 33 million. If we did the same exercise for Ukraine, the data I've seen say they have something like 34 million 18-60-year-olds. Let's chop that to 30 million to get rid of the oldest cohort. Again, say half do not want to serve. Then eliminate another half of the remainder due to physical, mental, and behavioral issues. That leaves them a pool of about 7.5 million. Even if they have lost 200k in casualties, they should have more than enough bodies to double or triple their force without too much heavy pressure. Yes, FNGs require a boatload of training before they are anything except bullet and artillery magnets. However, the point is that the issue exists on both sides and if there is any patriotism at all, Ukraine should be fine on the manpower front.
@gspam154
Жыл бұрын
I think the West has no problems with continuing to offer training for Ukranian troops. That would be one resource that the West won't back away from.
@volpeart2963
Жыл бұрын
There is to be considered that Russia will not be able to bear the costs of the war economically, unlike Ukraine, which is supported by other countries. Slava Ukraïni!
@limedickandrew6016
Жыл бұрын
Right, so someone who can pay for themselves out of their own pocket is financially at a disadvantage to someone living almost entirely on charity and goodwill handouts! Is that right?
@volpeart2963
Жыл бұрын
@@limedickandrew6016 OK evidently you are Putinian, and like all Putinians you turn the truth upside down. All it takes is for terrorist Russia to leave Ukrainian territory and everything is solved, in the last 50 years no one has attacked Russia it has always been her who has been waging war with idiotic motives and without foundation.
@PNH-sf4jz
Жыл бұрын
@@limedickandrew6016 Not the point !!! The point is that more than 60 other countries, and the majority of their populations, are prepared to assist and support Ukraine against Russia's military aggression. Putin and the Russian political and military establishment were quite prepared to take advantage of the fact that Ukraine had been militarily emasculated. That neutering of Ukraine was a consequence of agreements (1991), memoranda (1994) and treaties (1997) to which the Russian Federation was a party and Putin was personally a signatory. As a result of the provisions and outcomes of these agreements, it is reasonable to believe that Russia had reason to believe that Ukraine would be an easy 3 to 10 day conquest. By condition of those agreements, Russia had assured Ukraine that Russian would not wage WAR on Ukraine but would, instead, provide Ukraine with protection and assistance if Ukraine were attacked by any other country. The UK and the US gave the same assurances, with Russia, to Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Russia was a recipient of much of Ukraine's military assets, including the Tu-95 heavy bombers, among many other weapons that had been transferred to Russia, that have since been used by Russia in attacks against Ukraine. While you #limedickandrew6016 attempt to put the moral sanction against Ukraine, it is the Russians that have earned themselves the moral, legal and economic sanctions that have been placed against them. Indeed, I most sincerely hope, as #volpeart2963 has said, that "Russia will not be able to bear the costs of the war economically, unlike Ukraine, which is {justifiably} supported by other countries. Slava Ukraïni!" 🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine, Absolute Victory 🇺🇦
@rapture1949
Жыл бұрын
And what about Russia.??? 280.000 soldiers are dead..... Putin want more 😢... for what.???
@enriquelaroche5370
Жыл бұрын
Ukraine building a new cemetery with space for 600,000 Ukrainian heroes. will they need to build another?
@davidstclair3397
11 ай бұрын
Latest figures stated that Ukraine population is currently 23 million
@ronaldbell7429
Жыл бұрын
Even the short videos are great little think-pieces. Thanks
@guardiangypsy2682
Жыл бұрын
Thank you for this... great explanation
@SantiagoRodriguez-th3ej
Жыл бұрын
Congrtulations Adres for your realistic and brilliant reasoning
@dennisnielsen8030
2 ай бұрын
Numbers are not accurate.. 1. Even if half of Ukraine is men, then there is only 30 million left in the country, and that means 15 million. 2. Out of those 15 million at least half is not in an age suitable for war, and that makes it 7,5 million. 3. Out of those 7,5 million, you have to account for the ones who can not serve, which is usually around 20%, and that makes it 6 million. 4. Out of those 6 million, you are not accounting for the difference between people who are repairmen, producing ammunition, border security, cops, doctors, background troops etc.. Which is an enormous amount, and you can not spare these people for the frontline. So even in a very optimistic version, Ukraine will soon run out of soldiers.. Russia's total is 21 million available for service (not counting the prisoners), and of those you also gotta account for necessary services.
@ParabellumStoria
Жыл бұрын
Ukraine have 40+ people on paper only if you include occupied zones, separatist, crimea + refugies is more around 25-30. This is a factor many not include in their analysis. Another factor often overlooked is that russian sanitary support is pretty lacking and the % of wounded recovered is much less then what we expect in the west where our recovery rates are higher in this type of scenario.
@dougaltolan3017
Жыл бұрын
If Ukrainian troop numbers becomes an issue, NATO will send more and better weapons.
@seancidy6008
Жыл бұрын
Absolutely
@pacificostudios
Жыл бұрын
Two of the most interesting ways to estimate Russian dead are 1: Counting obituaries in Russia, and 2: Examining the death benefit payment line-item in the Russian national budget. The latter substantiates a KIA level well over 200,000.
@cacwgm
Жыл бұрын
A significant proportion of Russian KIAs are still listed as MIA, to make the numbers look better than they are - and so that the death benefit does not need to be paid. Unfortunately, no one (not even the Russian military) knows what that ratio is. I wouldn't take the budget for death benefit too seriously, given that it's a forward-looking forecast, and not all of it will reach the intended beneficiaries...
@masterlightjames950
Жыл бұрын
@@cacwgm load of crap. We are waiting for you liars to come up with one individual who hasn't been paid. You just love manufacturing lies.
@playedout148
Жыл бұрын
Been discussed extensively, but hundreds of thousands fled russia as well.
@prfwrx2497
Жыл бұрын
Bloody hell, if you're right, then Ukrainian estimates of Russian personnel losses might damn well be talking about KIAs. I know they're the invaders but Holy shit, why aren't they doing anything about it? They're getting creamed out there for some chekist's intangible goal.
@Tonyx.yt.
11 ай бұрын
@@playedout148 well millions left ukraine, so...
@Sphere723
Жыл бұрын
Yeah, spot on. The problem for both sides isn't about finding enough warm bodies to refill the ranks, it's about the loss of trained/experienced personnel. This is very dangerous and very intense warfare and getting people to be able to perform well in combat is difficult. That's what the casualty rates eat away at.
@Infiltator2
Жыл бұрын
And that in the end benefits Ukraine a bit, because of the western help with training.
@arjan2777
Жыл бұрын
The Russians are really bad in training.
@mrobocop1666
Жыл бұрын
@@Infiltator2 lol what are you saying, Ukrainian officers themselves in interview for Western media said NATO training is mostly irrelevant in the modern warfare against modern enemy, they say NATO instructors train Ukrainians to fight peasants and goat herders with AK-47 in guerilla warfare, because NATO never fought against modern enemy and its knowledge of midern war is only theoretical. While Russia during this 1.5 years only continue to obtain modern warfare experience
@lonewarrior9900
11 ай бұрын
@@Infiltator2😂😂 The western supa dupa training are useless. They have no clue how to fight this type of war. This is not afghanistan, or iraq, or b.s. coin operations. The proof is that the western trained Banderists how failed their "big" spring, summer, autumn, winter counteroffensive. 😉
@legrandfromage6450
11 ай бұрын
@@lonewarrior9900I've read several accounts of Ukrainian soldiers rejecting NATO "doctrine"as an anachronism -that it doesn't work in this war. More disturbing is the obvious lowballing of Ukrainian casualty estimates by the United States, uncritically regurgitated by Puck. There is something very sick about Western KZitemrs and thinktank eggheads urging more Ukrainians on into the meat grinder, while using unreliable, or even fraudulent casualty figures to justify it all.
@sibonisovilakazi3413
11 ай бұрын
Almost 20 million people have fled Ukraine and that is both men and women. Secondly, the US and the West in general is not doing anyone any favours by grossly deflating Ukrainian deaths. We estimate that no less than 400 000 Ukrainians have died and thousands are surrendering using the Volga frequency.
@pp00xyzzy
Жыл бұрын
Finland lost about 25 000 soldiers as dead in winter war with population of four million. And was capable fight the next war.
@olexandrs6639
Жыл бұрын
Russian ministry of labor ordered ~240000 death certificates. This is a low bar now. Which is consistent which Ukrainian general staff estimates.
@greggrimer354
10 ай бұрын
Hedging your bets? You said Russia was running out 6 months ago.
@yvonnetomenga5726
Жыл бұрын
@Anders Puck Nielsen • Thanks for addressing an issue that keeps coming up. Your explanation is so much better tgan the speculation of everyone from trolls to military analyst wannabees. Good job. 👍 Slava Ukraini. Heroyam Slava. 💪🇺🇦🕊🌻
@walterbrownstone8017
4 ай бұрын
He thinks if you put on a uniform that makes you a soldier. He doesn't understand that NATO was building that army for 8 years prior to 22. Where did they all go? Everybody knows what happened to the original soldiers.
@kevincorbett-x9n
Жыл бұрын
When you fight for your country and your life people fight in small numbers they are never caught just look at irelands fight for many years
@Ohnothisisbad
Жыл бұрын
The estimates for Ukraine include civilian deaths btw. That 70k number way overestimates the number od dead Ukrainian SOLDIERS. The estimates for Russia do not. This is extremely important when estimating force availability.
@anderspuck
Жыл бұрын
Thanks. That’s a good point. Another important point is that Mediazona’s numbers don’t include deaths from the occupied territories, so the real number is significantly higher.
@JBenderP
Жыл бұрын
Thank you very much for an insightful video! Keep up the good work!
@PåGyngendeGrund
Жыл бұрын
Altid godt at høre fra dig, Anders. Held og lykke med dine andre projekter!
@adamelestratega
11 ай бұрын
We shouldnt take old examples, as in modern times militaries are much more expensive to equip, and conscripting 10% of the population its just not acceptable by modern standards, Ukraine may not be running out of men tomorrow, but they are really starting to conscript EVERYONE they can find on the street, wich says a lot.
@zoran.grujic
Жыл бұрын
Ukraine had 44M before the war. Now due conquest and migration it is about 25M. Then half are ladies 12.5M, 20% = 2.4M. It means their population is collapsing quickly. Dead, wounded, demoralized, war exhausted, they might have less than 0.5M solders in the field and number will only go down.
@enricogattone432
Жыл бұрын
Finally! Was suffering withdrawal symptoms 😅
@maxsmith8196
Жыл бұрын
You are suffering withdrawal symptoms from not getting youtube updates about a war? jeez louise
@enricogattone432
Жыл бұрын
Nothing I can do about the existence of the invasion, nor about news about it flowing in my information space, especially because I do care about it. As probably is plainly understandable from my post, I joked about missing Anders' commentary about it, as he's accurate, insightful and utterly balanced without pretending to be morally neutral. Don't worry anyway, I know you are just trolling, just taking advantage of your apparent lack of sense of humour to express my appreciation for this channel. Have a wonderful day 💛💙
@maxsmith8196
Жыл бұрын
@@enricogattone432 I'm not trolling though, it just sounded a bit odd to me. But I guess it just didn't register with my personal sense of humor. You have a great day too
@4evaavfc
Жыл бұрын
We must support Ukraine. Thank you for the interesting report, Anders. I am sure Ukraine has the will to carry on to victory.
@slocad11
Жыл бұрын
A reasoned presentation on this war is always welcome amidst a sea of partisan reports. Thank you for your balanced coverage.
@charlesburgoyne-probyn6044
Жыл бұрын
Wars aren't noted for their honesty, centuries later when it's for stuffy professors to evaluate its bye the bye especially as other wars since have reduced it's relevance
@alanfranco8313
8 ай бұрын
I'd like to point out that it's not feasible to mobilize the entire workforce for war. Essential work is still needed to maintain a country, such as civil construction, which predominantly employs men. It's overly simplistic to assume that every man is fit for war, and ignoring this can lead to significant consequences for the economy and overall stability
@stephenkershaw160
Жыл бұрын
Russians outnumber Ukrainians 7 to 2. Therefore Ukraine will run out of soldiers earlier than Russia. Put another way, If Ukraine runs out of soldiers in two years, Russia will still have five years to go. So Russia can afford to be more economical than Ukraine in mobilisations. What you call Ukraine's will to fight is calling necessity a virtue. Putin can husband his political capital by mobilising at comparative leisure, whereas Zelensky does not have this luxury. He is forced to be a beggar at the court of NATO. Some of those courtiers are beginning to tire of his importunities. I condemn the invasion of Ukrainian territory in the strongest terms.
@ABCBCNM
Жыл бұрын
It's not about tin soldiers that go one for one. All male population cannot go to the frontline, even in 100% war oriented circumstances you need actually more men at the rear to make it going (before strict war logistics there are the country's conditions, its industry etc) BTW What word do you call Putin?
@ericmyrs
Жыл бұрын
Estimating a 25% recruitable population is pretty wild. You sure this doesn't belong in r/NonCredibleDefense ?
@XL0G
Жыл бұрын
Yes Anders should work on Wall Street. Great skill at rounding up. Would make a fantastic CFO. To begin with 40 million is wrong, then skip over ages, health condition, ignore civilian infrastructure. Assume that everyone will just show up when called (actual is reported 20% coming on first summons). Ignore civilian protests. Skip over training. Throw in some lowball figures for dead and wounded. Decades. Tell this to Ukrainians and see what they say. They planned to be fishing in Crimea yesterday.
@st-ex8506
Жыл бұрын
France is roughly the same geographic size as Ukraine. In 1914, France population was a bit smaller (39.4M) than Ukraine's is 2022 (44M), although it was younger. France was able to withstand average losses of 1000 KIA per day, every day for over 4 years, and the French army was bigger in November 2018 than it was in 1914. Of course, it was an absolutely terrible toll, which nearly wiped out a generation. But if Ukraine is sustaining dreadful losses, they are nearly an order of magnitude smaller. France also had to sustain most of its defense industry, while Ukraine is largely "subcontracting" it to its allies. Another example: when I was a young officer in the Swiss army in the 80s, Switzerland could mobilise, most of it within 24 hours, a force equivalent to 11% of its population, all equipped and with at least basic training... which would be 4.8+M soldiers if the same ratio was applied to Ukraine. What a country could do in peace time, why could a country fighting for its very survival not do? Conclusion: No, Ukraine is not going to run out of soldiers. Neither will obviously RuSSia IF they fully mobilize... which is politically a very unlikely scenario.
@robinbennett5994
Жыл бұрын
That's a good example. Wikipedia says the French mobilised 8.8million over the war, a ratio of 22% - surprisingly close to Anders' estimate.
@jonathanbuzzard1376
Жыл бұрын
If you think every shell and bullet fired by the French army was made in France I have a bridge to sell you. I also suggest you go read about the Halifax explosion in 1917 (largest man made pre-atomic explosion). Why was a French ship full of explosives in a Canadian harbour if France was relying on French production to keep going?
@effexon
Жыл бұрын
dont training factor play in modern fight? ie back in WW1 days it could be son of farmer was given rifle and hat, and sent to frontline. Now that is just plain wasteful with weaponry being so powerful.... how to put it in words, in theory could mobilize a lot but thats basicly human wave attacks which didnt work in WW1 either, just wasted troops. Towards end of WW1 was planes and tanks, which now show main point: advanced,heavy equipment are key. So could it be seen as attrition of those, which side runs out first of trained crew+tank/artillery/other unit combos first... equipment unit alone aint super useful, also need ammo, and trained crew is many times more useful. Also logistics, support, cooks, medics, factories, repair shops and so on need to be running or they be just sitting in trenches waiting for something. So trying to grasp here "weak link" of attrition, what will run out as troops aint first one. Though if this is gonna be like WW1, 4 years marathon, then troops become more emphasized.
@EpycStory
Жыл бұрын
You are forgetting that nowadays medicine is much better than 100 years ago, so people can live much longer and here we have a huge amount of older people who can only barely be at army. Also you are forgetting about people who ran out of Ukraine and seized by Russia. And if you try to find news about mobilisation in Ukraine, here we have big problems with that
@st-ex8506
Жыл бұрын
@@EpycStory I am not forgetting about the aging of the population, I specifically mentioned it! But I did forget about the part of the Ukrainian population either supporting RuSSia, or seized by it. However, even if the mobilisable population of Ukraine today is half that of France in 1914, it is still a lot. As I also said, Switzerland could readily mobilise 11% of its population, including over 15% foreigners, so more like 13% of its national population, and that was not so long ago. I am sure Ukraine has its problems mobilizing men (and women), it is NEVER easy! Look at what happened in September last year in RuSSia; hundreds of thousands of young, educated men fled the country!
@FrankFaulkner-qf8cb
Жыл бұрын
Think the RU casualties are grossly underestimated, if we factor total RU troops sent to Ukraine so far, how many estimated left, the dismal number of retired RU vets, their continual mobilization needs, along with RU doctrine of attack, its easy to come up with a sky high figure of up to 500,000 RU casualties
@johnny99497
Жыл бұрын
Ukraine needs 1 million volunteers drafted from Europe to fight as frontline troops for the big offensive. Otherwise this ends badly. Europe has a population of 700 million+
@michaelmullins3396
Жыл бұрын
He didn't mention about the total number of people left in Ukraine . Population of Ukraine before the conflict, less the number that left during the conflict . From my understanding the pool left in Ukraine to recruit from is only less than 20 million. Russia has a pool of more than 140 million to draw on .Furthermore the countries where these Ukrainians have gone , and mostly men of fighting age , gone mostly to countries that profess to be sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause. I don’t see any willingness for these countries to send all these fighting men back to Ukraine, as Zelinsky requested. Making Western support for Ukraine an even bigger joke.
@mariaf.6601
Жыл бұрын
Mostly men ? You're kidding.
@AnimaRandom
Жыл бұрын
Problem is that Putin cannot mobilized that easily due to the internal politics. unlike zelensky wherein he got the morale high ground and literally his country is fighting for the right to live. putin's war is dubious even for the russian public sure the "russian people believe that they are fighting neo nazi in ukraine" but as we seen in the mutiny of prozy. the military didn't even fight him and they even join him. we seen that there's a massive network of military higher ups that doesnt believe in putin's war anymore. they are tired If putin decided to mobilized the major cities in russia. there will be a revolution on a scale of during the Tsarist's Russia. For Zelensky, his only problem is keeping the west keen to help. like Churchill, US and its allies is still reluctant to help him despite this is literally a reenactment of world war 2 xD So yeah. this war is an attritional war of who's gonna break first. So if we wanna keep the countries like Russia who have imperialistic ambition, we need to show its not gonna work on 21st century globalized world
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